Unofficial Preview 2025 Hawk's Hypothetical Trade Discussion...now with added DFA spitballing!

[Strapping Young Lad]

This thread is becoming increasingly popular, and to keep some sort of order, we will have some….

Rules of engagement:

1. Bring valid news or links to Twitter posts from notable sources. Don’t post screenshots or “some bloke just said on SEN” or what some “trade whisperer” has posted on a Facebook page.

2. Ignore what other team boards are putting up as trade offers. Don’t quote or bring them here either.

3. Don’t post “buckle up” for the lols.

4. If you can’t say anything nice about Worpel or CJ, don’t say anything at all. The continued slaps and backhanders are just going to be deleted.

 

[HairyO]

Is it as common for this generation of footballers to use money as their only motivator in a decision making process?

Of course the player managers probably push it, but what I've come to realise about Gen Z is that they are driven more by experience than financial incentive.

If we have cultivated an elite culture (which I believe, under Sam, we have), then I'm pretty confident in saying that the young players at the club wouldn't spend too much concerning themselves with the 'haircut', and would be more focused on being a part of a team competing for premierships.

Then that all changes when we give a 20 year old the biggest contract in the history of the game.

 

[Dewwwww]

If Harley wants to come to Hawthorn you simply get it done.

He is the exact player we’re missing. Brings flexibility to rotate between midfield and forward with Moore and Watson.

Premiership sides are built around your core players and a list of Day Newk Dear Weddle Watson Ward Moore Reid Mackenzie are going to put us in the top 4 for the next 7-10 years

 

[The Seaword]

I'd love Reid at Hawks but I can't see him not ending up at Geelong.
There's been some consistent ITK info for a while that he's heading there so I'm not getting hopes up.

I’m not ready to have my heart broken either so I also think geelong will get him, and butters, and anyone else

 

[wahawk]

They were winning flags and taking unders. Here we are chasing a mercenary who wants absolute top dollar for absolute maximum number of years before we have achieved anything, with a team full of players approaching their prime who have every right to maximise their earnings and years.

If you really cant tell the difference between these 2 things then you should honestly excuse yourself from the thread. Because they are 100% absolutely opposites.



Yet paying more for the internal guy. So lets say we get Reid for $2m, how much do you think Newk wants next year? Day the year after? This year Meek is up for a new contract as well.

Dear is out of contract this year. With all the talk of millions I assume he will be after a huge amount. There isnt a club in the comp who wouldnt want him. Weddle next year, same thing.

Surely the player agents all know that we have at least $2m a year extra cash just sitting around waiting to be grabbed, so would be very keen to take a big chunk of it.

So we play hardball on 10 guys who currently give their all to the club while throwing the biggest contract in the history of the game to a 20 year old mercenary who may one day become something great.

You are clearly believing the media by calling him a mercenary.

Last year posters believed the media with the Battle talk & some started the old ‘fcuk him, he’s only chasing money’ lines.

Same with Dimma while still a free agent.

It happened with Punky when GWS came hard for him.

The 2 mil is media talk.

The club has always ‘shared’ the $$ so that players wanted by the club aren’t forced out.

You also need to consider other ways of looking after players.
HFC gives solid advice to players about setting up for life after football, along with many other ways of helping.

Battle was apparently offered more $$ from Saints with no real advice on what to do with it.
HFC offered less but with sound advice on how to use it.

 

[tl92]

Don’t think I’ve seen anyone mention this but if we were to get Reid in at the end of this year. His salary for 2026 will still have to be base salary ie $150k or so. So when people say $1.5m a year over 10 years. You’re getting him dirt cheap in year 1 and paying overs in the years thereafter.

 

[Minnesota Wisdom]

And who says what the Eagles are offering is what we'd be offering. If he wants to head back to Victoria and be a part of a successful club, there's every chance he would sacrifice some dollars to make that happen. How much is another question.

As for satisfying West Coast. As it stands we'd have the following (of value) available to trade

• Pick 7, 25 (2025)
• 1st and 2nd Round (2026)
• 1st and 2nd Round (2027)

There is a very real possibility that Worpel leave via free agency which may get us Pick 15 or 19 this year. If that happens, we'd have 4 x 1st round picks to play with and 3 x 2nd round picks. Surely there is enough collateral and flexibility to make any deal possible. Sure, some of those picks may devalue slightly due to Academy, NGA and FS. But it's a pretty strong hand in comparison to the other potential destinations in Victoria

 

[Bugs1977]

Is it as common for this generation of footballers to use money as their only motivator in a decision making process?

Of course the player managers probably push it, but what I've come to realise about Gen Z is that they are driven more by experience than financial incentive.

If we have cultivated an elite culture (which I believe, under Sam, we have), then I'm pretty confident in saying that the young players at the club wouldn't spend too much concerning themselves with the 'haircut', and would be more focused on being a part of a team competing for premierships.

Helps when the coach is a 4 x premiership player (1 as captain). If anyone can put forward taking a haircut on contracts to the playing group then it's him.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Then that all changes when we give a 20 year old the biggest contract in the history of the game.

Opinion.

 

[The Big Dipper]

OK I think we’ve done the cash debate to death, as always what will be will be, but that’s not really the main point of this thread is it? As a hypothetical if Harley says make me a hawk, how do we satisfy the eagles given he is under contract, commanding a hefty sum (don’t start again!) and was apparently worth 6,11,42 and f1 from Melbourne in the 2023 trade period.

Good call...I'll give my thoughts.

I think it takes 2x top 10 picks plus a promising young player and possibly a few fringe talents. We definitely have the players to facilitate. We have small forwards and key backs coming out of our ears so something like Mackenzie, Blanck and Scaife plus the 2x 1st rounders.

Assuming we get Band 2 compensation for Worpel, the difficult part will be getting our hands on another first rounder to go with the Carlton pick.

Richmond have picks 2 & 3, pick 3 could be our target. A combination of F1, Scrim and/or the Worpel compo could get it done.

The other one is Gold Coasts Pick 8, but this and the Carlton pick will likely be outside the top 10.

Whichever way you look at it getting Harley to the club will be expensive in more ways than 1.

 

[wahawk]

Don’t think I’ve seen anyone mention this but if we were to get Reid in at the end of this year. His salary for 2026 will still have to be base salary ie $150k or so. So when people say $1.5m a year over 10 years. You’re getting him dirt cheap in year 1 and paying overs in the years thereafter.

His base salary for his 3rd year would be over $300k due to certain triggers like games played & club B&F standings.

But yes , still not the $1.5 being spoken of

 

[SSSSSS]

To be fair, Essendon were in the mix, until they ceased to be a destination club.
This would kill him just as much as Harley choosing Hawthorn. Which it sounds like he has now.

The only destination Essendon has always gone is backwards.

Watch them bin Scott next year and get Hird back as coach next year as they're too impatient for a rebuild.

 

[Bugs1977]

You are clearly believing the media by calling him a mercenary.

Last year posters believed the media with the Battle talk & some started the old ‘fcuk him, he’s only chasing money’ lines.

Same with Dimma while still a free agent.

It happened with Punky when GWS came hard for him.

The 2 mil is media talk.

The club has always ‘shared’ the $$ so that players wanted by the club aren’t forced out.

You also need to consider other ways of looking after players.
HFC gives solid advice to players about setting up for life after football, along with many other ways of helping.

Battle was apparently offered more $$ from Saints with no real advice on what to do with it.
HFC offered less but with sound advice on how to use it.

This right here is point #1 on Geelong's recruitment pitch

 

[SSSSSS]

I'm sure any contract that large will be heavily incentivized through performance.

 

[The Seaword]

And who says what the Eagles are offering is what we'd be offering. If he wants to head back to Victoria and be a part of a successful club, there's every chance he would sacrifice some dollars to make that happen. How much is another question.

As for satisfying West Coast. As it stands we'd have the following (of value) available to trade

• Pick 7, 25 (2025)
• 1st and 2nd Round (2026)
• 1st and 2nd Round (2027)

There is a very real possibility that Worpel leave via free agency which may get us Pick 15 or 19 this year. If that happens, we'd have 4 x 1st round picks to play with and 3 x 2nd round picks. Surely there is enough collateral and flexibility to make any deal possible. Sure, some of those picks may devalue slightly due to Academy, NGA and FS. But it's a pretty strong hand in comparison to the other potential destinations in Victoria

How would we have 4 first round draft picks? Is it next years and the year after as well?

 

[CobberRodgers]

3 options IMO.

He stays.

He’s a Hawk. Whether we want to pay up in terms of contract is the question. I say it’s worth the risk if it’s managed correctly l.

Or, he’s a Tiger, as they have extreme trade capital. Whether the Tigs want to do it right now is probably the question.

 

[number23]

One thing is sure. The Weagles will ask the earth like they did for Barrass, totally screw it up and them claim it as a massive win. Their incompetence in trading is jaw dropping.

 

[Minnesota Wisdom]

How would we have 4 first round draft picks? Is it next years and the year after as well?

Yep, assuming Worpel leaves via FA and we receive Band 1 (First Round) or Band 2 (end of 1st Round) we would have 4. Starting this year, we can trade 2 years in advance so we'd have 2 x 2025, 1 x 2026 and 1 x 2027

 

[FB19]

Good call...I'll give my thoughts.

I think it takes 2x top 10 picks plus a promising young player and possibly a few fringe talents. We definitely have the players to facilitate. We have small forwards and key backs coming out of our ears so something like Mackenzie, Blanck and Scaife plus the 2x 1st rounders.

Assuming we get Band 2 compensation for Worpel, the difficult part will be getting our hands on another first rounder to go with the Carlton pick.

Richmond have picks 2 & 3, pick 3 could be our target. A combination of F1, Scrim and/or the Worpel compo could get it done.

The other one is Gold Coasts Pick 8, but this and the Carlton pick will likely be outside the top 10.

Whichever way you look at it getting Harley to the club will be expensive in more ways than 1.

6/11became 7(Windsor) and 13 (tholstrup) and 6(Langford) sp I think your assessment is in the ballpark. Unless the player is best 22 I think that doesn’t move the needle much. Blues first likely to be pick 10 and our f1 in the teens plus Worpel compo end of first round becomes a late 20s pick and blues second then around 35. It’s far less due to how compromised this draft is than it looks.
If it’s all in on Reid it won’t be 2 firsts and some fringe players as you say it will be steep. We would need an extra top 10 pick or someone valued that highly. With only a 2027 first left and a trajectory to finish high up that doesn’t get it done, so we need to be prepared to lose some valuable players I would think. Worpel and Scrimshaw would seem to be the most likely ones with top 20 value (for different reasons of course). Unless the suns want someone and are still prepared to shred picks like confetti…

 

[badgrill]

Like clock work.

maybe stop and think - is there perhaps a reason?

 

[offtherails9]

Personally I'd much rather get a combo of two proven A grade players on $750k each (ie Battle and Barass) than one unproven player for $2m who "may" become a A+ player (ie Dusty/Petracca) but may just as easily end up a B+ player (i.e Stringer/JDG).

It's been mentioned before but the AFL isn't the NBA, it's more the quality of your bottom 6 than the quality of your top 3 that wins you a flag.

Classic example look at the Hawks when we got rid of Buddy who is ten times the player Reid currently is.

We let go the player of his generation and still went on to win three more flags as we had more cap space to spread around and retain / recruit players such as Lake to fill specific needs.

You do not, I repeat do not, want to end up like Carlton where 30% or your salary cap on a list of 38 players is going to 4 players which leads to letting go of club stalwarts like Matthew Kennedy. It's a terrible business model.

And for those who say the other players would be cool with a 20 year old kid getting 2.5x the salary of Newk, that's just plain silly. They would be privately seething at that idea.

The Hawks have never overpaid for players in our history and it's been a fantastic model that's led to years of success.

Why suddenly pivot and decide to follow a business model favoured by lesser clubs like the Saints / Dons / Blues / etc?

There was actually some media about this recently, how AFL teams have started to follow the NFL (which I think is a dumb comparison but it's what the article said) and started to really highly pay their top 5-10, and pay the rest much lower. I know of a few clubs who do this now. Interesting topic.

 

[Bugs1977]

Yep, assuming Worpel leaves via FA and we receive Band 1 (First Round) or Band 2 (end of 1st Round) we would have 4. Starting this year, we can trade 2 years in advance so we'd have 2 x 2025, 1 x 2026 and 1 x 2027

If they select well then those 1st rounders could be used to set themselves up very nicely right before Tassy comes in for the 2028 season. Miss that window and if he still wants to leave after a couple of seasons then any 1st rounders after 2028 will be highly compromised.

 

[I got the outside word]

There was actually some media about this recently, how AFL teams have started to follow the NFL (which I think is a dumb comparison but it's what the article said) and started to really highly pay their top 5-10, and pay the rest much lower. I know of a few clubs who do this now. Interesting topic.

It’s doing wonders for Carlton, they are getting high-ish draft picks from it year after year… Except this year, they have so many now they gave them away.

 

[The Big Dipper]

6/11became 7(Windsor) and 13 (tholstrup) and 6(Langford) sp I think your assessment is in the ballpark. Unless the player is best 22 I think that doesn’t move the needle much. Blues first likely to be pick 10 and our f1 in the teens plus Worpel compo end of first round becomes a late 20s pick and blues second then around 35. It’s far less due to how compromised this draft is than it looks.
If it’s all in on Reid it won’t be 2 firsts and some fringe players as you say it will be steep. We would need an extra top 10 pick or someone valued that highly. With only a 2027 first left and a trajectory to finish high up that doesn’t get it done, so we need to be prepared to lose some valuable players I would think. Worpel and Scrimshaw would seem to be the most likely ones with top 20 value (for different reasons of course). Unless the suns want someone and are still prepared to shred picks like confetti…

I'm afraid you're right, we do need to be prepared to lose someone valued highly. Furthermore someone young and valued highly. West Coast will be suggesting players like Newcombe (23), Weddle (21), Dear (19), Ward (21), CMac (22) whilst Hawthorn will be more willing to include players like Mackenzie (21), Butler (22), Hustwaite (21), Blanck (24), Mitchell (23), Serong (22) & Scaife (20).

It's going to be an interesting negotiation, that's for sure!

 

[eaglevision]

Well said. Curiously asking has anyone ventured over the WC board to do some digging? If the natives over there start getting restless then it could be a tell tale sign.

eaglevision you always seem to have your ear to the ground on WC / Hawthorn info. Have you heard anything regarding Reid or is everything tight lipped?

The absolute bullshit dished up by some posters claiming to be ITK and knowing what Harley is planning on doing has been laughable.

I messaged some privately at the start of June that Harley was looking at a 3 year extension with a player option being considered after that period.

The revised offer from CSM was 2+9. I suspect WCE will counter with 4+7 and it may settle at 3+8.

As I’ve said all along, I expect him to sign an extension with us and it will be up to the club to put performances on the board to show Harley he’ll spend the rest of his career in premiership contention if he elects to opt in to his player option after the guaranteed years.

Fully expect him to be an Eagle for the next 3-4 years at a minimum. If we don’t improve then I suspect he’ll end up back in Victoria but he’s definitely bought in.

 

[HoldingThe Ball]

So who goes West?

WCE simply won't accept a Maginness or a CJ. They aren't good enough to satisfy their fans.

Ginnivan? Lewis? Scrimshaw? Ward?

Because in addition to multiple first round picks, that's what they will demand - and get.