List Mgmt. 2025 List Management discussion - part 2

[SG34]

This could be a statue outside the MCG. Of course it wouldn’t pass the, ‘way-we-wan’t-to-project-culture’ test, but this is a fair dinkum, flies ‘n all depiction of macho culture that was still around a generation ago, and how it stood out on a footy field.

 

[True Believer]

To be honest, even though its Carlton, I'm a little uneasy with all this gloating about one of their players leaving in free agency for an irresistible offer

I think footy's better when the good players stay with their clubs.

Well as people like you often like to say about the Saints, they just need to get better then, don't they....then their good players will stay!

 

[Linton Street Saint]

Jweb is no surprise.

Really I thought he held our half back line together in a lot of sordid performances early mid year. I may be missing some context re: motivation or injury.

I've thought JWeb has been one of our better players that was quite underrated over the journey.

 

[SainterinSydney]

To be honest, even though its Carlton, I'm a little uneasy with all this gloating about one of their players leaving in free agency for an irresistible offer

I think footy's better when the good players stay with their clubs.

 

[Saintos The ITK]

Webby. What a lad. Loved his effort over the years, hard as a cats head and twice as smart.
Will never forget that double tackle.

 

[gringo2011]

Has TDK had back stress fractures, a Broken Skull with significant concussions, a dislocated elbow that has forced him to miss significant periods?

No.

He has played in 2 incredibly shit Carlton sides which has impacted his own form due to the side struggling aswell as then being thrown forward.

It also appears as if he went into self preservation mode with a significant deal waiting in the background

They aren’t one and the same.

We all sat in the same list management thread as TDK tried to carry Carlton in the first half of the season. We all saw the same gun ruck. As I said, his individual highlights are there for anyone to see and judge.

You are such a huge Roma fan, bet you haven’t compared Roma at TDKs age. (Hint it isn’t Roma who comes out on top).

Infact we all would have thought Roma was in the AA conversation last year. That Roma was only slightly better statistically than TDK this year - who you feel underwhelmed about.

If the trend of players completely buying into RTBs get the best out of yourself mantra continues with TDK we likely have the AA ruck of 2026 in TDK

I've watched both play. Marshall is the better more consistent player. TDK the better highlight reel and the odd outstanding game. He could be the best ruck ever, he could be an inconsistent and frustrating player that never quite realises his full potential. No problem with him apart from the contract length and wage that will still be sucking money out at year 7 regardless of how good or bad he becomes.

To me it's a gamble on a player that doesn't fill any of the more obvious holes that we have. It's not the mega contract I would have dangled. It may end up working out if the AFL rules change to allow run ups or it could be an anchor that stops us from moving when we are close to maxed in the cap. You'd hate to lose some of our best home grown talent to keep a B grade ruck on the books in a few years.

Regardless it looks like a done deal so we just have to hope like hell he can get some consistency in his game.

 

[stavro#4]

Really I thought he held our half back line together in a lot of sordid performances early mid year. I may be missing some context re: motivation or injury.

I've thought JWeb has been one of our better players that was quite underrated over the journey.

Practically announced at last years BnF when he deferred accepting his life membership until this year and Membrey was accepting his.

 

[PJays]

I understand the trepidation regarding TDK's salary but I don't share it.

Why not?

I also think we've run the Marshall on his own experiment and without an elite forward/ruck (someone in a Luke Jackson/Joe Daniher/Riley Thilthorpe class), we lose too much when he is off the ground so its probably time to try something different. Dodson is not yet ready.

Keeler's showed real potential. And he's a couple of years older than Dodson who's only 19.

Are there any other options to trade in?

Hickey and Longer were decent rucks St Kilda traded in.

I understand we're vulnerable to a Marshall injury, and I understand another ruck could improve our side (ala the Ratten years), but it seems a big logical jump to "so lets give Tom De Koning an astronomical 8 year contract".

 

[gringo2011]

Christ $2m for Reid and he hasn’t gotten anywhere near NWM exposed form.

Again like TDK it's ridiculous money for potential. Reid is easily the best junior in a long time but as an AFL player he looks like he's worth $350k on output. I guess WCE have no-one else to pay it to and if he is shit they aren't locked into it for too long.

 

[stavro#4]

Again like TDK it's ridiculous money for potential. Reid is easily the best junior in a long time but as an AFL player he looks like he's worth $350k on output. I guess WCE have no-one else to pay it to and if he is shit they aren't locked into it for too long.

Sure - but what these 2 deals have done is set the precedence moving forward.

Very soon it won’t look funny spending like this.

 

[snails13]

Probably not worth repeating but Chicken Nixon thinks we might be into Shiel and an Oliver.

Dont want

 

[gringo2011]

That patch of form was in 2005.

Kosi went very well in 2009 and pretty well in 2010 when we were making grand finals.

Are we overpaying for TDK salary wise? Probably, although we lose no draft capital which is important to re-state.

Then again, we're probably also overpaying Nas a wee bit, and I couldn't care less about that.

At the moment we're looking at a 2026 where our depth mid is Jack Steele and no longer Ryan Byrnes.

Nas is on actualised form. TDK looks like he should naturally be on a bout $800k absolute max right now. Even then it's got a fair bit of improvement factored in. Nas could genuinely be the best player in footy over the next few years. TDK might make the top 5 rucks in footy over the next few years.

 

[Diehard Saint]

TDK was arguably the All Australian ruck until that throat injury and Carlton’s season being dead and buried.

Again, don’t know why I have to mention it. But AFL app. >>> TDK highlights >>>> watch his games from the first half of the year.

Dominant.

New lease on life at the exciting Saints tapping it down the throat of Nas.
I’m very bullish.

 

[gringo2011]

Sure - but what these 2 deals have done is set the precedence moving forward.

Very soon it won’t look funny spending like this.

Disagree. It's a bit of a perfect storm with Tassie coming and a couple of shit drafts making it harder to arm yourself before the apocalypse. It will take a few clubs burning their fingers as a cautionary tale to teach others.

 

[gringo2011]

Yep, pretty easy to understand isn’t it.
This narrative that 2 game Dodson will immediately seek a trade is fantastic

You have to be realistic and think that if he's stuck in behind another ruck he will end up wanting to move on at some point. The best hope is that losing the sub creates an environment where two legit rucks can play in the same side or that he can play as a hybrid forward.

 

[PJays]

The bottom line is Marshall is under contract for a further 2 years. We hold all of the power.

Surely we've all been following footy long enough to know how naive this comment is.

 

[gringo2011]

It seems to be happening so we best roll with it.

My gut feeling is if Roma leaves it's because he's got some deal happening with Geelong. If that's the case, hopefully we play hardball and get a good pick.

I can absolutely see playing the, both working. Roma and Paddy at times was delicious, and that's without the likes of Nas and Hugo etc running through the middle.

Not a fan of two rucks unless one is a genuine forward threat. I think we'd be better to cash Marshall in if TDK comes. Unless the bigger bench changes things a lot.

 

[SainterinSydney]

Surely we've all been following footy long enough to know how naive this comment is.

Xerri and Papley say hello.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Do you think they're rattled?

Soooo salty

 

[Dard Ball Get]

You have to be realistic and think that if he's stuck in behind another ruck he will end up wanting to move on at some point. The best hope is that losing the sub creates an environment where two legit rucks can play in the same side or that he can play as a hybrid forward.

I think he’ll be great.
I don’t think you put all your eggs in a 19 year old ruck basket.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Marshall and De Koning will be playing together next year and the team will be much better for it than last year. That's really the only measure we need to consider.

When Marshall's finished in a few years time, Dodson will be 22-23yo and ready to join TDk.

Exactly.
It’s called forward planning.

 

[The Punter]

Why not?

Because we have oodles of money, have dangled it in front of many and caught only one, and we have to spend it. Also, not for nothing, TDK is a restricted free agent. I reckon if Carlton find a way to match (a lower salary makes it easier), then we don't acquire him because the entire idea is to get someone in without trading out players or draft picks.

We are, going into 2026 (and the Nas contract alleviates this somewhat), in a position of overpaying a player to come to St Kilda (while subtracting nothing from our list or draft capital) or giving that money to players on the existing list, the one that's won 9 games this year.

The President's was clear this week in the media: he believes you can't win flags playing it safe. The club has called the play, and I can see every bit of rationale behind it.

 

[SainterinSydney]

Again like TDK it's ridiculous money for potential. Reid is easily the best junior in a long time but as an AFL player he looks like he's worth $350k on output. I guess WCE have no-one else to pay it to and if he is shit they aren't locked into it for too long.

I feel more comfortable paying Nas $2 million than Reid. I do think Reid will become a top 3 player in the comp, though.

 

[gringo2011]

Take with a massive grain of salt. My mate who’s bit involved with the Cats. Hearing Whispers SDK could make the trip down the highway at the expense of Marshall in a trade.

That would be a good deal but can't see how they aren't moving a piece out to bring a piece in. Would mean Connor O'Sullivan has to be their main KPB. He seems very young but I guess Geelong are good at developing and backing in kids. He's probably already close to going past SDK I guess.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Good post, I like the analysis

There is a major problem though

If you're Rowan Marshall, and you'd prefer to be #1 ruck, and suddenly the club wants you to ruck 40% of the time, what would you do? Fair chance you'd explore other opportunities.

On balance, I wouldn't mind this strategy if Marshall's on board. But ultimately it's the money that worries me. It's just too much in my book.

The money issue has been explained ad nauseum.

If it actually is $1.7m then you cannot ignore that we'll be using a fair chunk of the $3m we have banked to front end TDK's deal.

I won't guess what that figure will actually be but it will undoubtedly bring the final 5 years of his contract back to a very manageable level.

Not only that but Roma's current $800k deal will have expired by then.

We also have the $300-400k of marketing clams to throw into the mix (although I assume some of that will be headed Nas' way).

Put all those sums together & the horror of a $1.7m, 7 year is very overstated.

In reality, to get a player who is already on $800-900k a year to move clubs would take at least $1.2m pa. We won't be far off that after the 1st few years of spending the bounty of our disciplined TPP strategy.

Why not?


Keeler's showed real potential. And he's a couple of years older than Dodson who's only 19.

Are there any other options to trade in?

Hickey and Longer were decent rucks St Kilda traded in.

I understand we're vulnerable to a Marshall injury, and I understand another ruck could improve our side (ala the Ratten years), but it seems a big logical jump to "so lets give Tom De Koning an astronomical 8 year contract".

If Roma goes down & we have to rely on the kids then it's not stretch to say the progress we have to start making to keep Nas long term will be in jeopardy.

The more I look at it, the recruitment of TDK is absolutely essential.