I’d like to see all of these ratings filtered by only games against the top 9 teams. Plenty of blokes padding stats beating up on the rubbish teams like we have as a team with our percentage.
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2025 Rolling ALL-Australian Team
- Thread starter Cringle
- Start date
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- Oct 13, 2017
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Clark - Taylor - Worrell
Nas - Andrews - Whitfield
Mcgluggage - Anderson - Holmes
Dawson - Cameron - Elliott
Pickett - Thilthorpe - Gunston
Gawn - Bontempelli - Daicos
Richards, Smith, Rowell, Jackson
Nas - Andrews - Whitfield
Mcgluggage - Anderson - Holmes
Dawson - Cameron - Elliott
Pickett - Thilthorpe - Gunston
Gawn - Bontempelli - Daicos
Richards, Smith, Rowell, Jackson
threenewpadlocks
Brownlow Medallist
Not sure how many people are keeping their eye on an expected 15 goal win on a Sunday 4.40 fixture but if Bontempelli had not played himself into the team before he certainly has now.
And he's come from a mile back two months ago to get there because after getting some coaches votes for the first 3 games that he played he got 0 in the next 5 games, so after 8 games (13 rounds into the season) I would have said "no chance, even if Bontempelli plays as well as for the rest of the season as he has over the last 5 years.
Take AFL ratings points, and using a very simple value over replacement philosophy (ie attribute the value of a replacement player at 5 player ratings points per game) for every game short of 22 that a given player hasn't played, Bontempelli after this game vs. West Coast has now got himself up to rank 7 in the league.
Again, this already accounts for the fact that he missed 5 games to start the year.
He's been an even better player since Round 14 than he has been on average over the last 5-odd years of his career, which is pretty incredible.
And he's come from a mile back two months ago to get there because after getting some coaches votes for the first 3 games that he played he got 0 in the next 5 games, so after 8 games (13 rounds into the season) I would have said "no chance, even if Bontempelli plays as well as for the rest of the season as he has over the last 5 years.
Take AFL ratings points, and using a very simple value over replacement philosophy (ie attribute the value of a replacement player at 5 player ratings points per game) for every game short of 22 that a given player hasn't played, Bontempelli after this game vs. West Coast has now got himself up to rank 7 in the league.
Again, this already accounts for the fact that he missed 5 games to start the year.
He's been an even better player since Round 14 than he has been on average over the last 5-odd years of his career, which is pretty incredible.
- Jul 13, 2015
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Except he is also more than 30 goals behind the Coleman leader - so maybe the rating system is stupid.
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threenewpadlocks
Brownlow Medallist
In theory though any capable human could stand in the goalsquare for all 120 minutes of the match, have their team play 17v18 up the ground, have their team win 0 games for that year but that one person who literally does not leave the goalsquare for all 120 minutes wins the coleman.
Obviously it doesn't happen to that extreme but clearly that principle is happening to some extent here and thankfully we have the statistical capability to measure and analyse contribution to eventual goal scoring as a team beyond simply just measuring total goals kicked.
I don't think it's particularly controversial to suggest that Darcy has been the best forward in the league on an average per-game basis in the entire league this season, even if his raw goalkicking is lower than others.
Bald Headed Flog
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I wouldn’t necessarily have Darcy in my team (he absolutely deserves the squad), but goals alone is not enough to justify selection. Ben King is currently 3rd in the Coleman, only 1 goal behind 2nd, and yet not a single person would have him AA this year because he offers nothing other than finishing off a scoring chain.
- Jul 13, 2015
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In theory you could just make up shit about how one player plays their football to make another player look better.
If you think Cameron spends all his time in the goal square you should actually watch a cats game.
How many times in the history of the AA has the Coleman winner not been selected? That is almost a guarantee.
Then for the other forward positions they look at goal assists as well, and no doubt get given a bunch of dumb stats by Champion Data, and then vote for their favourites. If the top 3 are clear standouts then they would nearly always be selected. When it is close it will come down to other things.
But Darcy is so far behind because he missed so many games. King hasnt kicked more than 3 goals against any of the teams in the top 8 or 9 - so that probably doesnt help (mind you, Cameron has about 75% of his goals against the bottom 8 teams).
threenewpadlocks
Brownlow Medallist
I'm not saying that Cameron spends all his time in the goalsquare, just that his overall ball use tends towards finishing off the good work that his teammates do moreso than Darcy, who does far more than other key forwards in ball use towards helping his team score.
I don't think that is particularly controversial. We can measure that in statistics. That is the philosophy behind AFL Player Ratings Points, which is more calibrated to location on ground etc.
But even aside from that we can explain this in a "dumb" way.
14 players with 40+ goals this year
Look at their average of score involvements per game that is not their own goals or behinds.
Sam Darcy is head and shoulders above the other 13 players:
| Player | Non Self-Score SI per game |
| Sam Darcy | 3.7 |
| Aaron Naughton | 3.1 |
| Shannon Neale | 3.1 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | 2.9 |
| Jamie Elliott | 2.9 |
| Jack Gunston | 2.8 |
| Jeremy Cameron | 2.5 |
| Jack Higgins | 2.4 |
| Jesse Hogan | 2.2 |
| Nick Larkey | 2.1 |
| Logan Morris | 2.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | 2.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | 1.9 |
| Ben King | 1.4 |
I just had a look at this, filtering out the bottom 9 teams:
Darcy's rating against the top 9 is even higher than his season average rating. He goes from a rating of 15.39 to 15.72. Another reason he should be a lock.
Gunston on the other hand drops from a rating of 10.71 to 6.37 when you look at his games vs the top 9.
He averages 3.2 goals, same as Darcy (excl sub game). Darcy averages 6-7x as many contested marks, with a much higher efficiency such as 1.1 less shots on goal per game for the same average goals. Gunston kicks 1.6 behinds per game to Darcy's 1.2. It isn't even close between them if you look at it objectively. The gap becomes enormous when you compare how they perform against good sides. Darcy & Cameron should be locks, the 3rd spot between Thilthorpe(my pick) Naughton & Gunston.
Last edited:
JHF1870
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- Sep 19, 2007
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This is possibly my team all locked in.
Bont easily gets in. I managed to get him to the number of games needed but is the highest scoring player.
Serong, Grundy, Keane, Greene closest for positions to unfortunately miss out.
Bont easily gets in. I managed to get him to the number of games needed but is the highest scoring player.
Serong, Grundy, Keane, Greene closest for positions to unfortunately miss out.
Toffee Lion
BigFooty Rising Star
How does Worrell get in over Zorko?
JHF1870
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They aren't the same player. I have Clark ahead of Zorko. I had Zorko on the bench but he came out when Bont came in.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Locks for the team: Richards
Maybe: Bont (though leaning towards a bench spot if he has a good game in the last round), Naughton (just a few forwards that's all, kicks a bag this week he's in)
Squad: English (maybe)
I couldn't consider Darcy it's not just the 6 games he's had some quiet ones when he has played too so that's getting up to 8+ of non impact games. Naughton has had less in the same side.
Dale, who knows there's a zillion HBF's they can pick. you'd assume Ash is one, who is the other one? If they plonk J Daicos back there can't see Dale
- Oct 13, 2017
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Anyone who doesn’t have Bont in their team has zero idea about football.
Really?
On season output, there is a clear top 5 list of midfielders:
Dawson
Daicos
Anderson
Rowell
B. Smith
Then, for the next few who make the team, it comes down to personal preference amongst
Bont
Green
Butters
McGluggage
E. Richards
Callaghan
Holmes
Serong
Many Geelong supporters rate Holmes over Smith. There are going to be a few midfielders who have had ripping seasons who are going to miss out, and like it or not, Bont's missed games are going to work against him.
- Oct 13, 2017
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Happy to wager anything you like that Bont makes the team. Add in Richards for that matter from the list you named. They are both 100% locks.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Bont isn't a lock yet, but he PROBABLY snags a bench spot if he has another great game. Richards probably is in though agree there. That said shouldn't be in before McCluggage, neither should. Bailey Smith is in a lot of side, has he even played well the last 6-8 weeks? Holmes has been way better for the Cats
McCluggage would be incredibly unlucky to miss out IMO, especially if Brisbane win this week and finish 3rd. He's taken over the mantle as our best midfielder, in arguably one of the strongest midfields in the competition.
He's a player where stats don't necessarily tell the whole story given how good his ball use and decision making is, except his numbers are also very good this year too. Has also played every game.
He's a player where stats don't necessarily tell the whole story given how good his ball use and decision making is, except his numbers are also very good this year too. Has also played every game.
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Yep, agree.
That's why it's going to be so hard for someone like Bont to make it, given the number of games he's missed.
I don't think there's room for both Bont and Richards.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Holmes has been WAY better and is barely in any of these sides
Orange crush
Norm Smith Medallist
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Richards has been better for longer this season … he did the lifting while Bont was out
JHF1870
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Of my stats this year,
These are the highest scoring players overall. Bont makes it by getting to 17 games which was my cutoff.
