Position 2026 Rucks

[Significant]

As I said, a score of 80 from the replacement gives a difference of 36, if you're factoring expected performance then that's a different story.

It's quite surprising what the 4th best rookie score (19th) can be. I had a look at rookie scores over the early games in 2024 and the 4th - 6th best rookie scores were consistently around 70-80.

Structure has a bit to do with it as well. I'm aiming to have a team with 5 rookies on the field so theoretically, my 19th score will be the best of my rookie scores (if I have one player on a bye) that score can be 100+. Of course the more players I have on the bye means that the 20th, 21st and 22nd (2nd, 3rd & 4th best rookies) scores come into consideration.

I'm 100% with you. It's short sighted to rule out a player solely because they have an early bye. I wouldn't be loading up, and ideally its one premo out each week at an absolute max, but its as much chance as an LTI, suspension, etc. to have an impact on your overall season. Heck rookie roulette and poor captain scores are by far the biggest impact on week to week scoring.

 

[4tune8]

I'm 100% with you. It's short sighted to rule out a player solely because they have an early bye. I wouldn't be loading up, and ideally its one premo out each week at an absolute max, but its as much chance as an LTI, suspension, etc. to have an impact on your overall season. Heck rookie roulette and poor captain scores are by far the biggest impact on week to week scoring.

I reckon the amount of premos missing is directly proportional to the amount rookies that are fielded, with some adjustments for teams with more higher scoring premos.

A pure G & R team would be fielding 9-10 rookies which means they would have to take 4-5 rookie scores, if they have a premo miss then their 19th score is the 5th or 6th best rookie.

If I go with 5 rookies on field then I don't have to take any of their scores, if one premo misses then I take the best rookie score, 2 premos miss then I take the 2nd best rookie score and so on. I could have 4 premos miss and have to take the same amount of rookie scores that a full G & R team would take with no premos missing. Of course, that is offset somewhat by the G & R team having higher quality players who would score more than my mix of premos and MP's.

Just playing the averages tells me that I could have up to 4 players (2 x premos & 2 x MP's) missing on each round to come out roughly square. I don't plan on having that many miss, but it does give me the opportunity of grabbing a couple of premos that others are discounting because of their bye, those couple of early POD's might just make a difference.

 

[jdstorm]

I'm 100% with you. It's short sighted to rule out a player solely because they have an early bye. I wouldn't be loading up, and ideally its one premo out each week at an absolute max, but its as much chance as an LTI, suspension, etc. to have an impact on your overall season. Heck rookie roulette and poor captain scores are by far the biggest impact on week to week scoring.

The added benefit of having 1 premo on each early bye is it gives you a loop option if you don’t want to start a donut.

That’s worth 20+ points a round which makes the math even more favourable

 

[Significant]

The added benefit of having 1 premo on each early bye is it gives you a loop option if you don’t want to start a donut.

That’s worth 20+ points a round which makes the math even more favourable

Hadn't factored this, but very important for me as I don’t like taking a donut if I can help it. Cash gen is king!

 

[Eagling]

The added benefit of having 1 premo on each early bye is it gives you a loop option if you don’t want to start a donut.

That’s worth 20+ points a round which makes the math even more favourable

You're far more likely to already have that benefit from a rookie with the early bye.

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Keen to see if Jordon Sweet is a lock for Port’s #1 ruck. Had some big scores last year. I think you could make a case against most premier rucks this year.

 

[Petrify]

Haven't seen many mention him but avoid Grundy like the plague. Priced at 125.3 and only averaged 91 against his first 5 opponents last year. Also has an early bye.

 

[Toastie]

Regardless of the new rules too hard to go past Xerri. In his prime and should still dominate.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Same goes for Jackson and the uncertainty around Young and just how much the new rules affect a lumbering Darcy. Does the setback to King mean that Roma is stationed as a forward taking the ruck contests in that part of the ground as well?

There's a fair bit of doubt (in my mind), or not knowing just how much the rules will affect the rucks. At this stage I'm thinking of starting Draper/Visentini/Conway and waiting until the dust settles. Last thing I'd want to do is shell out $650k for a 10% drop in scoring output.

Conway is perma injured (we will start the year with either blitz or sdk as the no1 ruck). Geelong do have Mitch Edwards coming through who is better than Conway but he isn't ready yet. If youre looking at a cheaper sc ruck I would look at Bryan when he comes back. Visentini also a good shout.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Briggs is a massive no for me. There isn't a single ruck in the competition that is going to be more negatively affected by the new ruck rule than him. Definitely stay away.

Witts will be also but I agree.

 

[Battlepants]

Conway is perma injured (we will start the year with either blitz or sdk as the no1 ruck). Geelong do have Mitch Edwards coming through who is better than Conway but he isn't ready yet. If youre looking at a cheaper sc ruck I would look at Bryan when he comes back. Visentini also a good shout.

Is Visentini even going to be the ruck for Essendon?

Seems like everybody on the Essendon board has Blakiston as the main ruck until Bryan returns.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Is Visentini even going to be the ruck for Essendon?

Seems like everybody on the Essendon board has Blakiston as the main ruck until Bryan returns.

Would have been very handy if Essendon were playing R0 to give us a look at their ruck set up.

 

[Petrify]

Would have been very handy if Essendon were playing R0 to give us a look at their ruck set up.

Scott does love 2 rucks & the extra slot on the bench helps with that. But I'm almost certain Bryan will be the main guy with Wright/Blakiston pinch hitting. If Visentini plays it would only be for a round or two to cover Bryan then immediately out, Visentini just aint ready yet

 

[TryAnHit]

Would have been very handy if Essendon were playing R0 to give us a look at their ruck set up.

Makes it so much better when people have to fly blind

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Sounds familiar.

It’s simply the play. Always has been since the Cox/NN days. Pick the who best Rucks. They’ll be top 5 for sure. If they get injured, sideways to another Ruck. Anything else and you just burn trades and leak points. I prefer to do that on the other lines

I do agree to a point and I have always done it.
That said this year theres some legitimate question marks around both Max's age and how Melbourne will go and how it affects his scoring (i think he will still do well with the new rules but maybe not 120 every week).
Xerri and Grundy both get a lot of points from work at stoppages and if the new ruck rules mean less stoppages and more running around the ground they might well drop in price.
The new rules might suit guys like Jackson (admittedly the Darcy issue with sharing points is there) and tdk and the athletic types much better. So i can see why some people might be considering moving off gawn/grundy/xerri this year

 

[4tune8]

I do agree to a point and I have always done it.
That said this year theres some legitimate question marks around both Max's age and how Melbourne will go and how it affects his scoring (i think he will still do well with the new rules but maybe not 120 every week).
Xerri and Grundy both get a lot of points from work at stoppages and if the new ruck rules mean less stoppages and more running around the ground they might well drop in price.
The new rules might suit guys like Jackson (admittedly the Darcy issue with sharing points is there) and tdk and the athletic types much better. So i can see why some people might be considering moving off gawn/grundy/xerri this year

It's going to be hard to go against Max, he was the highest scorer in SC last year by nearly 200pts, plus he doesn't an early bye, nor the dreaded round 12 bye.

The biggest question mark for me is how much the change to an immediate ball up will affect his ability to get to contests given the speed of the game. That of course is balanced against his positioning behind the ball and accessing intercept marks.

I think there's a legitimate case in saying that all rucks could be overpriced, but you still want the 2 that will be the highest scorers in that position.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

I do agree to a point and I have always done it.
That said this year theres some legitimate question marks around both Max's age and how Melbourne will go and how it affects his scoring (i think he will still do well with the new rules but maybe not 120 every week).
Xerri and Grundy both get a lot of points from work at stoppages and if the new ruck rules mean less stoppages and more running around the ground they might well drop in price.
The new rules might suit guys like Jackson (admittedly the Darcy issue with sharing points is there) and tdk and the athletic types much better. So i can see why some people might be considering moving off gawn/grundy/xerri this year

Playing in a bad team can actually help a gun SC player.

Jaiden Popowski did an analysis on Yeo a couple of years back and worked out he got consistently scaled up despite WC getting pumped. Because WC were bad all the SC points weren't getting earned and had to be awarded through scaling.

So Melbourne being bad shouldn't really hinder Gawn too much.

 

[Significant]

Playing in a bad team can actually help a gun SC player.

Jaiden Popowski did an analysis on Yeo a couple of years back and worked out he got consistently scaled up despite WC getting pumped. Because WC were bad all the SC points weren't getting earned and had to be awarded through scaling.

So Melbourne being bad shouldn't really hinder Gawn too much.

Same argument for Port this year as well I reckon. Their bottom 6 is ugly AF, no doubt that Rozee, Butters, JHF, and a select few others are going to take the lions share of points.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Same argument for Port this year as well I reckon. Their bottom 6 is ugly AF, no doubt that Rozee, Butters, JHF, and a select few others are going to take the lions share of points.

Can definitely see Butters benefiting like that. He is a fast starter which would get more scaling in a blow-out.

 

[Deliverance]

I do agree to a point and I have always done it.
That said this year theres some legitimate question marks around both Max's age and how Melbourne will go and how it affects his scoring (i think he will still do well with the new rules but maybe not 120 every week).
Xerri and Grundy both get a lot of points from work at stoppages and if the new ruck rules mean less stoppages and more running around the ground they might well drop in price.
The new rules might suit guys like Jackson (admittedly the Darcy issue with sharing points is there) and tdk and the athletic types much better. So i can see why some people might be considering moving off gawn/grundy/xerri this year

Looked a bit more into this. And I'm not sure on the year one impact, but SANFL numbers show a huge drop off in throw ins with the last touch rule. Would logically lead to a lot less HTA

 

[Sherman41]

Looked a bit more into this. And I'm not sure on the year one impact, but SANFL numbers show a huge drop off in throw ins with the last touch rule. Would logically lead to a lot less HTA

I think I remember someone posting that there are, on average, about three fewer throw-ins per game in the SANFL. I could be wrong.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

I think I remember someone posting that there are, on average, about three fewer throw-ins per game in the SANFL. I could be wrong.

That was what St Kilda put out a while back.

AFL has been essentially last touch anyway for a couple of years. I doubt it will make that much difference.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

That was what St Kilda put out a while back.

AFL has been essentially last touch anyway for a couple of years. I doubt it will make that much difference.

Im less interested in the last touch itself and more interested in how much quicker the umpires are instructed to do the ball ups. If they speed it up the way I think some of the slower rucks just wont be able to get to the contest.
It may advantage clubs like Geelong who can split the ground up into zones (for example sdk takes any ball ups in defence, blicavs in midfield and neale in the forward line) or clubs that have an athletic 2nd ruck that can come cover (for example marshall if he's in st kildas fwd line).
I expect guys like Briggs and Darcy (freo) and witts will really struggle if they speed it up.
It will be tricky for SC as we wont know how much it will affect points until after a few games.

 

[Floating Doughnut]

That was what St Kilda put out a while back.

AFL has been essentially last touch anyway for a couple of years. I doubt it will make that much difference.

Swann said on radio early on than in the AFL modelling they had Champion Data review every game of 2025 and apply the new rules . It would have created 2.7 less boundary throw ins only per game.
I agree not much change in that part but how aggressively the umps interpret the hurry up ball up will be interesting.

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Playing in a bad team can actually help a gun SC player.

Jaiden Popowski did an analysis on Yeo a couple of years back and worked out he got consistently scaled up despite WC getting pumped. Because WC were bad all the SC points weren't getting earned and had to be awarded through scaling.

So Melbourne being bad shouldn't really hinder Gawn too much.

The only reason Gawn could possibly regress is age. No rule change is gonna effect him, he's on another planet.