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Position 2026 Rucks

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Average hitouts per game last year: 82.

Average hitouts per game (excl the cancelled one) in the preseason: 76.5

Confidence intervals


  • 95% CI: (69.9, 83.1) last year's 82 is just inside, so you can't reject "no change" at the 5% level
  • 90% CI: (71.2, 81.8) -- 82 falls outside, so you can reject at the 10% level

The direction of the signal is fairly convincing. There's roughly a 95% chance hitouts have genuinely dropped. But 8 pre-season games can't tell you how much. The true drop could be 1-2 hitouts (trivial noise) or 10+ (a major structural shift). You'll need roughly ~19 games before you can pin down the size of the effect with any confidence. Also worth noting these are pre-season games where intensity/effort may differ from the regular season.
 
Reposting my post here from the rucks thread for visibility:

Average hitouts per game last year: 82.

Average hitouts per game (excl the cancelled one) in the preseason: 76.5

Confidence intervals


  • 95% CI: (69.9, 83.1) last year's 82 is just inside, so you can't reject "no change" at the 5% level
  • 90% CI: (71.2, 81.8) -- 82 falls outside, so you can reject at the 10% level

The direction of the signal is fairly convincing. There's roughly a 95% chance hitouts have genuinely dropped. But 8 pre-season games can't tell you how much. The true drop could be 1-2 hitouts (trivial noise) or 10+ (a major structural shift). You'll need roughly ~19 games before you can pin down the size of the effect with any confidence. Also worth noting these are pre-season games where intensity/effort may differ from the regular season.
How does this compare to previous preseason games?
Feel they always play differently to the real thing
 

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