Sorry you are right. But the point still stands, he is young enough to fit the age profile for a long term player in a rebuild, could still class him as a 10 year player.
Player Watch #27 Thomson Dow - signed to 2024
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Dow and his parents actually spoke to Richmond about getting him over last year and Richmond were open to it but carlton were not happy to let him go so early and they didnt push it. might be a different situation this year if he cant get games but would we be interested
Our supporters are spewing about how slow RCD,Martyn<Dow and others are coming along and would we really expect him to become more than what he currently is / Teague didnt play him alot and will influence thinking
I don’t mind. I’ve advocated for Paddy the last two years as he has a lot to give athletically. Now he’s out of contract I think we’ll get him for nothing.
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The other question is is Paddy Dow a bust?
Seems to be a nearly player that can do this and that but not enough. Should be in his prime now. I think he should be treated as very speculative in terms of outlay. One would not want to give up too much for him either. His brother with us still has to make it to.
Kicking seems iffy, more a handballer, is he too slight? Dunno, can't write him off but is it a case of glass half empty than half full?
Looks like balance could be a problem with him, ideally one would want him stronger and frankly more runs on the board
It's all about cost vs risk and reward, and age profile.
He ticks those boxes which is why I'd entertain it for a pick between say 45-60 (then that always gets pushed back anyway).
I'd prefer someone like him with upside than someone like Aarts for example.
But it's only if the price is right. I'm not overpaying for someone we should be able to pry with a token pick.
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Nah he is worth less than that I think depending on the draft.
Odds are he will not make it to be frank.
Hope he does but Carlton could delist him. I would think they might even simply try and offload him off the books if CFC can keep the others
Just because a player has a burst of speed and can pick a ball up, of itself is not enough. Its interesting looking at Shiel at Essendon. Has not set the world on fire and my father thinks he may not be tough enough. Over time some players get found out
Muddiemoose
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He’s already played 60 afl games and just been pushed out of one of the most stacked midfields in the comp
What makes you think he won’t make it?
We need an inside ball winner (ave 8 contested possies a game last year) and he is that type of player
Definitely not Perfect but would suit a hole in our list if we could get him for a 3rd rounder we would be silly not to entertain it
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In a team that was winning spoons.
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He is not a inside ball winner, he is 23.
He is almost a confirmed bust. He is not worth a 3rd rounder on performance
Some think Kennedy is a A grade spud and he is well past Dow. Dow not there is one of the reasons why CFC have improved.
Dow would have to kick some goals to mount interest.
Playing 60 games is meaningless if one can't deliver. I am not saying he is scrap heap but he is close to so his value is very low currently. The fact is guys like Lambert historically have done more in the seconds than Paddy
Just on Thomson, has anyone figured out what his best role is yet? because he is still finding his way to although looks a more sound prospect
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Muddiemoose
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Not really one players fault that the team wasn’t performing
Lynch was winning spoons at Gold Coast and he went alright
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Isn’t the fact it has clicked for Kennedy who is two years older more of a sign that Dow can still make it and worth a small amount of risk
Similar players who hadn’t lived up to potential
2 years ago you would of said no to Kennedy for the same reasons you are saying no to Dow
Kennedy was even delisted by Carlton at that point and re rookie
3rd round picks are very speculative look at will Martyn
Would rather take a risk on Dow than drafting a similar type
No one is saying give up the farm or it’s a sure thing
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Kennedy and Dow are two totally different players.
Kennedy will run through a brick wall. Dow will not. Kennedy is a lot more sturdy and far stronger in the contested mark. Kennedy is far more inside with far more presence. One would give Kennedy 500K before a 3rd rounder for Dow. Dow would get knocked off his feet, Kennedy would not, big difference. Kennedy has less fear of physical contact than Dow which is evident with how close he gets into contests involving the opposition especially in marking contests
Kennedy had to deal with GWS mids, his own fitness, and getting his body right. Dow was a top pick and had ample opportunity frankly
To demonstrate how opposite Kennedy and Dow are if the best of both where combined it would make one hell of a player
Will Martyn was another stretch considering he was under the Lions noses as opposed to Nick Martin
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Muddiemoose
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You are basing your value of Kennedy on this year alone
He was literally delisted by Carlton in 2020
They are extremely similar players and stats are almost identical even including the inflated stats from this year
Two years ago you would of said no to Kennedy for the exact same reasons you are saying no to Dow
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They are nothing alike.
Kennedy is 190cm and 90kg, Dow is 187cm and 85 kg
Kennedy is a far stronger mark than Dow. Kennedy aerobic capacity is only starting to be developed now with hard work and getting over physical ailments.
Dow would be quicker than Kennedy to. To compare the two suggests you have not seen them play.
Two years ago I wrote on here we should get Kennedy for nothing.
Dow would cost not nothing and is worth less
Football games are not won by stats
The bottom line is it looks like Kennedy has seized his opportunity when he could, Dow has not.
Since we have Thomson we should be focusing on the best role for him so he can seize his opportunity. Looking at Thomson he looks a but square and upright in his movement. I am not sure he is a inside player. Is he a flanker, can he play elsewhere? He looks like he has certain attributes but can he get the right package of attributes to make certain roles effective for him and the team?
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Muddiemoose
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Dow is literally in the same position Kennedy was two years ago when he was delisted and had been with Carlton since 2018
Kennedy had shown absolutely nothing until this season
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BS, even on foxtel they said he shown something the back end of last year. I put him in my fantasy team last year as did others
Players playing in the same position means nothing, it is about performance and cause and effect
Next thing you will say Baker is like Michael Voss because at one point in their careers they both briefly played in the guts
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Kennedy played at half back last year and only 16 games until very late
You clearly haven’t actually watched either of the two players much
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More BS, he was playing in the midfield. He never got defender status in fantasy either
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So your assessment of Kennedy is based off what Foxtel said and afl fantasy?
Makes sense now
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Nah, I have inside knowledge
I will say this, Thomson may be better than his brother and if he improves his strength and power it could go a long way to getting the best out of himself
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Tiger_Of_Old
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RCD for Dow.
It'll be a win for us.
It'll be a win for us.
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Can't agree with that.
Paddy Dow is closer to a confirmed bust than RCD and RCD has more potential.
RCD can play different roles potentially, Paddy less so
Would I put Paddy on a wing? Paddy in the backline?, Paddy up forward?? Probably not
Nepotism rarely works
At least RCD can break the lines, kick a goal
If one was to guide Thomson Dow on how to make it one would probably be don't be stupid but don't be water in the contest
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Tiger_Of_Old
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Change for both probably be good for both.
Having said that if your struggling to runout games then your pretty much a liability.
I have watched a lot of both of them.
Kennedy has been a stronger player with better balance, very good in the air and a sound though not very penetrating kick. He is not fast, not necessarily painfully slow but I think like Cripps can get burnt on the spread at times. He is averaging 14 contested possessions this year which is high, but I have noticed he is inflating his stats with loads of uncontested possessions in not very dangerous areas a little in the fashion of a Tom Mitchell. I would consider a decent contract offer for him like 4-5 years x $600k but that would be the absolute limit I think.
Dow is faster, currently dominating the VFL, but from what we have seen at AFL level, weak over the ball and his kicking is death. He does the worst type of trunovers where he breaks clear under no immediate pressure then kicks pathetically weakly, which burns all his spreading teammates. He has shown little poise or penetration with his kicking when on the run. I would possibly offer him $300k x 2 and use a 3rd rounder but only if I thought there was a realistic chance of sorting out his disposal. Without fixing his shocking kicking problems he is not an AFL footballer it is as simple as that.
Kennedy has been a stronger player with better balance, very good in the air and a sound though not very penetrating kick. He is not fast, not necessarily painfully slow but I think like Cripps can get burnt on the spread at times. He is averaging 14 contested possessions this year which is high, but I have noticed he is inflating his stats with loads of uncontested possessions in not very dangerous areas a little in the fashion of a Tom Mitchell. I would consider a decent contract offer for him like 4-5 years x $600k but that would be the absolute limit I think.
Dow is faster, currently dominating the VFL, but from what we have seen at AFL level, weak over the ball and his kicking is death. He does the worst type of trunovers where he breaks clear under no immediate pressure then kicks pathetically weakly, which burns all his spreading teammates. He has shown little poise or penetration with his kicking when on the run. I would possibly offer him $300k x 2 and use a 3rd rounder but only if I thought there was a realistic chance of sorting out his disposal. Without fixing his shocking kicking problems he is not an AFL footballer it is as simple as that.
