First of all, kudos for last night’s performance. They were switched on and played with passion. Especially pleasing was the effort of our “lesser lights”: Ellard, Warnock, Hammer, Robo, Hadley and Grigg.
Here’s my take on the reality of Carlton’s current situation.
There is almost a mathematical method of analysing and predicting our performances, past, present and future.
RULE # 1
We are only as good as the opposition allows us to be
This is the measure of the opposition’s emotion, intensity and how long this is sustained for.
RULE # 2
The effectiveness of our personnel is solely determined by the amount of Time and Space granted to it.
This takes into account the way the opposition plays: structure, style, physical makeup, etc.
Our worst performances have been against teams which:
Here’s my take on the reality of Carlton’s current situation.
There is almost a mathematical method of analysing and predicting our performances, past, present and future.
RULE # 1
We are only as good as the opposition allows us to be
This is the measure of the opposition’s emotion, intensity and how long this is sustained for.
RULE # 2
The effectiveness of our personnel is solely determined by the amount of Time and Space granted to it.
This takes into account the way the opposition plays: structure, style, physical makeup, etc.
Our worst performances have been against teams which:
- Surround the stoppages by 20+ players, (denying us time and space)
(eg. Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Sydney)
- Use rolling zones to compress the playing area, (denying us time and space)
(eg. Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Sydney)
- Have played us at Ethiad. The smaller surface area suits teams which surround/compress and zone.
(eg. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Bulldogs, Sydney)
- Have dictated the structure/shape of field positions because they have gained an early ascendancy and have the momentum. (Greater emotion, intensity)
(eg. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Bulldogs, Sydney, Collingwood)
Conversely, our best performances have been against teams which:
- Play a more conventional style of football.In other words, they tend to stay in their positions more, or refuse/aren’t developed enough to effect modern zoning techniques. (Allows us time and space)
(Richmond, Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Melbourne)
- Didn’t turn up to play on the day or dropped off (Lacked emotion, intensity)
(Richmond, Brisbane, Essendon, Adelaide, Geelong, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Melbourne)
Three Rounds to go
Richmond – More conventional, unable to zone effectively, at the MCG
(Will allow us time and space) Suggests a win
Geelong – More conventional, but unfortunately at Ethiad
(competitive, but no confidence at the ground)
Fremantle – Subiaco will be a good ground for us
(time and space), (their tactics maybe limited by personnel, and their emotion and intensity may be waning 50/50)
(Will allow us time and space) Suggests a win
Geelong – More conventional, but unfortunately at Ethiad
(competitive, but no confidence at the ground)
Fremantle – Subiaco will be a good ground for us
(time and space), (their tactics maybe limited by personnel, and their emotion and intensity may be waning 50/50)
