Opinion A sobering reminder

[Art Vandelay_]

Those victories masked the, now obvious, problems:

9th in contested posession differentials.
17th in clearance differentials.

Not premiership standard.

It was something of a coaching masterstroke to put us in contention despite those numbers.

To come full circle. A Sobering Reminder to Hawthorn who similarly are average in both metrics in season 2016.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

To come full circle. A Sobering Reminder to Hawthorn who similarly are average in both metrics in season 2016.

Someone better remind them that they're not really contenders and that they really don't intend to win the flag this year. Hopefully the message is delivered in time for the finals as it was for Geelong.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Someone better remind them that they're not really contenders and that they really don't intend to win the flag this year. Hopefully the message is delivered in time for the finals as it was for Geelong.

History shows if you are bad in both of those key areas you DO NOT win the premiership. They have 8 games to rectify that or they're goneski!

 

[Biggy_Boy]

History shows if you are bad in both of those key areas you DO NOT win the premiership. They have 8 games to rectify that or they're goneski!

Really now? How about 2008? Who won that flag and what were their clearance and CP stats like?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Really now? How about 2008? Who won that flag and what were their clearance and CP stats like?

So one year out of how many. Just like 15/17 premiership teams have been in the "Premiership Standard" quadrant it's a very very strong indicator.

Cling to the BS that they will be this year.... ceteris paribus. They stay where they are in both in 2016 and they'll remain pretenders. They've been getting tin arse wins regularly. Someone will get them if it remains like this.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

So one year out of how many. Just like 15/17 premiership teams have been in the "Premiership Standard" quadrant it's a very very strong indicator.

Cling to the BS that they will be this year.... ceteris paribus. They stay where they are in both in 2016 and they'll remain pretenders. They've been getting tin arse wins regularly. Someone will get them if it remains like this.

So they're winning all the games they need to, are on top of the ladder, are the most experienced finals side, have proven they can win when they need to, and are the side in recent history to prove that they don't need to win the clearances and contested possessions to be successful? Seems like a strong case to me. Maybe if a side was forming as a quality challenger this year, I'd have some doubt they could win it, but no one has.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

So they're winning all the games they need to, are on top of the ladder, are the most experienced finals side, have proven they can win when they need to, and are the side in recent history to prove that they don't need to win the clearances and contested possessions to be successful? Seems like a strong case to me. Maybe if a side was forming as a quality challenger this year, I'd have some doubt they could win it, but no one has.

No one has. LOL. I do believe we in fact are. So far 1 defeat from 7 games against those who matter. Beat Sydney and there isn't a single club that we haven't beaten. lol lol lol.

I'll stand by it. They don't improve in one area massively and they won't win the flag.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

No one has. LOL. I do believe we in fact are. So far 1 defeat from 7 games against those who matter. Beat Sydney and there isn't a single club that we haven't beaten. lol lol lol.

I'll stand by it. They don't improve in one area massively and they won't win the flag.

You need to make top 4 to challenge for the flag. Geelong is no certainty to do that.

And Geelong beat all the top 4 sides in the H&A of 2013, but apparently that season didn't matter and they weren't trying to win a premiership, so I don't know why this year is any different.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

You need to make top 4 to challenge for the flag. Geelong is no certainty to do that.

And Geelong beat all the top 4 sides in the H&A of 2013, but apparently that season didn't matter and they weren't trying to win a premiership, so I don't know why this year is any different.

Neither is anyone else, oh wait but by some fanciful (melodramatic) logic we're clinging to the 4... Yet moved up a spot this weekend.

So how can they be the form side or the one to beat when they've lost to top 4 contender Geelong, sullied their 23/25 MCG record v interstate sides by losing to the Swans and got smashed by the up and coming Giants, who with their draw are good chances for top 2. All the while being inept in the clearances and contested possessions (oh and btw, I'm using differentials which aren't publicly available for 2008, so they may have been good in that regard that year) all the while getting Ump assisted wins over St.Kilda (whom many melted over when we lost to them), Adelaide (who we beat fairly) and the Dogs (who we thrashed fair and square).

They are not exhibiting form of a premiership contender and their ladder position through sheer dumb luck (copyright Professor McGonagall) belies this form.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Neither is anyone else, oh wait but by some fanciful (melodramatic) logic we're clinging to the 4... Yet moved up a spot this weekend.

So how can they be the form side or the one to beat when they've lost to top 4 contender Geelong, sullied their 23/25 MCG record v interstate sides by losing to the Swans and got smashed by the up and coming Giants, who with their draw are good chances for top 2. All the while being inept in the clearances and contested possessions (oh and btw, I'm using differentials which aren't publicly available for 2008, so they may have been good in that regard that year) all the while getting Ump assisted wins over St.Kilda (whom many melted over when we lost to them), Adelaide (who we beat fairly) and the Dogs (who we thrashed fair and square).

They are not exhibiting form of a premiership contender and their ladder position through sheer dumb luck (copyright Professor McGonagall) belies this form.

12th for contested possession differential in 2008. I don't know about clearances, but ranked 13th for averages so probably not high.

The extent you go to to underrate and discredit Hawthorn is quite remarkable. You can dislike them if you like, but you can't not respect what they've done. Dumb luck? From a team that has made a habit of winning finals and close games?

As for their losses. Hawthorn's early season form hasn't been good in the past and it hasn't mattered once they kick into gear later in the season. They lost more games in their first 8 games last year than they have until this point of 2016. In 2014, they lost early season games to Geelong and Sydney, both by about 20 points. In 2015, they lost a game to the Swans at the MCG.

Before we speak of Geelong's chances, too, we also need to establish whether Geelong is actually trying to be successful this year, or if they're rebuilding or practicing or something. Do you think they actually intend to win the flag this year, or is this another 2013? What distinguishes the two, in your opinion? Why are we more likely to win a flag this year, when we're likely to finish with more than 4 losses and lower than second on the ladder, but weren't trying in 2013?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

12th for contested possession differential in 2008. I don't know about clearances, but ranked 13th for averages so probably not high.

The extent you go to to underrate and discredit Hawthorn is quite remarkable. You can dislike them if you like, but you can't not respect what they've done. Dumb luck? From a team that has made a habit of winning finals and close games?

As for their losses. Hawthorn's early season form hasn't been good in the past and it hasn't mattered once they kick into gear later in the season. They lost more games in their first 8 games last year than they have until this point of 2016. In 2014, they lost early season games to Geelong and Sydney, both by about 20 points. In 2015, they lost a game to the Swans at the MCG.

Before we speak of Geelong's chances, too, we also need to establish whether Geelong is actually trying to be successful this year, or if they're rebuilding or practicing or something. Do you think they actually intend to win the flag this year, or is this another 2013? What distinguishes the two, in your opinion? Why are we more likely to win a flag this year, when we're likely to finish with more than 4 losses and lower than second on the ladder, but weren't trying in 2013?

yes we are contending, what distinguishes the two, well for starters (touchwood) we actually have ruckmen. Keep them fit in September and we are as good a chance as any team, ditto hawkins is fit unlike 2013, circa 2013 Pods was done as the 2nd forward so Kersten/Clark is a key difference. Midfield is probably somewhat similar. Menzel is a tough matchup, moves like a small but plays tall, a little Gunston like in that regard.

Who said I have to respect what they're doing in 2016? That's separate to what they've achieved previously, which is far more impressive than their underwhelming 2016.

Secondly and you cannot be remiss to not acknowledge this, last year they did kick into another gear. They also had Suckling, Roughead, Lake, Hale in the side. None of which will play again this season and Roughy maybe not even next year.
We saw 2 weeks ago what their youth is like, our green and raw youth smashed them, so they're not likely to get a big "another gear" lifting boost from underneath are they...
They're now stretched down back as Gibson isn't a defenders arseh*le 1v1 so can be exploited there. High reliance on Gunston up forward and smalls (when was the last premiership side that's relied on a bevy of small forwards mostly?) and have an ageing midfield. iirc they were the oldest premiership team in history last year and you know what they say about Father Time...

 

[maxy87]

Those victories masked the, now obvious, problems:

9th in contested posession differentials.
17th in clearance differentials.

Not premiership standard.

It was something of a coaching masterstroke to put us in contention despite those numbers.

I agree. Footy analysts in 2016 harp on about "turnovers", "pressure" and "transitional play" after a turnover has been forced. Chris Scott had us playing this way from 2012 and in my opinion it was in response to losing Ling and Ottens and the likes of Corey ageing. We didn't have enough midfield grunt and decided that our best shot would be to add extras behind the ball and use our defensive experience/talent to create plays. When you think about it, this is probably an early iteration of the "slingshot" that Horse Longmire used to great effect with Sydney around the same time. Scott is a head of the curve. I also think that bringing in Rhys Stanley and his use of Mark Blicavs are other areas where he has pre-empted where the game is going, but I digress.

It certainly is an interesting discussion when looking at in context of Hawthorn's chances this year and their contested ball and clearance numbers. In my opinion, with some luck, we could've pinched the 2013 premiership playing this "slingshot" type style, which is remarkable given the list profile and how comprehensively Fremantle beat us in the EF in 2012. Having no ruckman and other key injuries knocked the stuffing out of the 2013 season by the back end unfortunately. Losing to Fremantle at home in a QF for me, spelt the end of premiership contention for this current group.

In 2014 I think we were reaching a critical tipping point in the transition of the list and coupled with injuries, we were off the pace somewhat. I am on record here saying we would not win the flag. We just didn't have the cattle. In 2015, the transition reached critical mass and again coupled with injuries, were a LONG way off it. I really think that 2015 was us bottoming out though, which again is remarkable.

I think that this year Hawthorn have given themselves every chance and it will be interesting to see how how the younger players stand up to finals pressure and whether the footy smarts of the older brigade is enough to neutralise their poor statistical numbers. Their fortunes this year will definitely add complexion to the discussion about Geelong's premiership credentials between 2012-2014.

 

[Partridge]

Before we speak of Geelong's chances, too, we also need to establish whether Geelong is actually trying to be successful this year, or if they're rebuilding or practicing or something. Do you think they actually intend to win the flag this year, or is this another 2013? What distinguishes the two, in your opinion? Why are we more likely to win a flag this year, when we're likely to finish with more than 4 losses and lower than second on the ladder, but weren't trying in 2013?

That's an easy one - the result of the game. If we win we were contending, if we lose we're in transition.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

That's an easy one - the result of the game. If we win we were contending, if we lose we're in transition.

You still on that tired old generalisation. Seriously slipping in quality this year.

 

[Partridge]

You still on that tired old generalisation. Seriously slipping in quality this year.

Seriously not giving a shit in any year.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Seriously not giving a shit in any year.

Good for you. Would be nice if the generalisation had a factual basis that was representative of the thoughts of people. Maybe I'm asking too much...