AA predictions?

[themuddy#3]

hey guys, just chucking it out there, but do you think that we can top last years 9? we must go close...

we have four givens in Bartel, ablett, corey and scarlett and the rest are interesting.

will Steve Johnson get a place given the excellent form of alan didak (well before he knocked off JFK) and ryan o'keefe? is joel Selwood in the top 6 or 7 midfielders in the league?

IMO corey enright and andrew mackie are among the best offensive backs in the league but will they get a run?

and milburn's form hasnt been any worse than last year and surely Ling is still the best tagger in the game...

i think mooney will miss out as there have been some gun forwards running around this year...

here are my predictions:

1. gaz
2. jimmy
3. corey
4. scarlett
5. milburn
6.enright
7.steve johnson
8. joel selwood
9. Ling

have i missed anything?

 

[djlowz]

Certainties - Ablett, Bartel, Scarlett, Corey
Likely - Enright, Ling
Maybe - Harley, Johnson
Will probably just miss - Selwood, Milburn

I think that we'll probably get 6 or 7 in this year, not as much as last year.

 

[shake_and_bake]

hey guys, just chucking it out there, but do you think that we can top last years 9? we must go close...

we have four givens in Bartel, ablett, corey and scarlett and the rest are interesting.

will Steve Johnson get a place given the excellent form of alan didak (well before he knocked off JFK) and ryan o'keefe? is joel Selwood in the top 6 or 7 midfielders in the league?

IMO corey enright and andrew mackie are among the best offensive backs in the league but will they get a run?

and milburn's form hasnt been any worse than last year and surely Ling is still the best tagger in the game...

i think mooney will miss out as there have been some gun forwards running around this year...

here are my predictions:

1. gaz
2. jimmy
3. corey
4. scarlett
5. milburn
6.enright
7.steve johnson
8. joel selwood
9. Ling

have i missed anything?

steve johnson wont make the side imo, too inconsistant. i dont think milburn will make it and i doubt selwood will too. too many other good midfielders ahead of him like kirk, harvey, cooney, mitchell, hodge, judd etcplus our 3 players in gaz, jim n corey. ling is a maybe. looking good tho. and mackie wont get a gig, tom harley is an interesting one i think.

Certain Starters - bartel, ablett, scarlett, enright, corey (on the bench)

good chance - harley, ling

maybe's - selwood, s johnson, milburn

not likely - chapman, mackie, kelly,

 

[pinkcococupcake]

Selwood would have to be a definite IMO.

 

[canny30]

hey guys, just chucking it out there, but do you think that we can top last years 9? we must go close...

we have four givens in Bartel, ablett, corey and scarlett and the rest are interesting.

will Steve Johnson get a place given the excellent form of alan didak (well before he knocked off JFK) and ryan o'keefe? is joel Selwood in the top 6 or 7 midfielders in the league?

IMO corey enright and andrew mackie are among the best offensive backs in the league but will they get a run?

and milburn's form hasnt been any worse than last year and surely Ling is still the best tagger in the game...

i think mooney will miss out as there have been some gun forwards running around this year...

here are my predictions:

1. gaz
2. jimmy
3. corey
4. scarlett
5. milburn
6.enright
7.steve johnson
8. joel selwood
9. Ling

have i missed anything?

SJ hasn't been that great this year,...he wont make it.

Joel Selwood will struggle because they seem to have this stupid unwritten rule about putting a few good years in b4 being selected.

I agree with the rest.

 

[CF]

funny thing is Mike Sheehan said on "On The Couch" last monday that given our dominance this year and the fact that this year we have been better than last year, we probably deserve more AA players than we had last year. He said 10 - 12 should be considered for the best team in the comp.

My tips are:
Gazza
Jimmy B
Selwood
J. Corey
M. Scarlett
Corey Enright
Harley
Ling
Kelly
Stokes
Mackie

 

[Brasil2007]

Mackie is a cert.

Harley might get a look in too.

We could have a situation where we have pretty much the whole backline actually - hard to identify a weak link down there, and many of the usual nominees (eg Glass) have had poor years.

Kelly deserves to be in the larger list but will probably miss the final team.

Stokes is also a red hot chance.

Ottens would be considered I think but missed too much of the season.

 

[whoknows]

(Absoultely) Certain: Scarlett, Ablett, Bartel
Good chance: Corey, Selwood, Enright, Milburn, Harley (won't all make it, but all have a decent shot)
Outside chance: Johnson, Ling

I don't think we'll have as many. Johnson's year is underrated - his stats are just as good as O'Keefe's - but he has dropped off from last year. Mooney won't make it either. Same as I don't think Mackie will make it - bench if anything. My backline reads:

FB: Harley..............Scarlett .....(Bolton/Hudghton)
HB: (Enright/Milburn)...(Bock/Croad)..........Morris

Corey's having a great year, but might get pushed out for Cooney/Mitchell/Hodge/Black/Harvey/Kirk/Judd. It will be either him or Selwood that gets in, not both.

Same as Milburn or Enright. If anything, Harley has the least competition for a spot - maybe Bolton.

 

[catempire]

Selwood is really giving the selectors a headache with his recent form. He has averaged 25.2 possessions for the season which ranks him only 10th in the league but in the past 8 weeks he has averaged 31.

He should make the squad but it will be tight to try to squeeze him into the final team in front of any of Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Cornes, Mitchell, Cooney, Cross, Black, Power, Thompson and Harvey.

The final team will probably include 8 midfielders so there are going to be some unlucky ones from that group.

If Selwood finishes the season in this form he might just make it.

 

[Mr.Chicken]

I don't think we will get 9, I think last year the AA's selectors got carried away with us when we really only deserved 6 or 7 (I think both Joel Corey and especially Cameron Mooney were a bit lucky). Here's what I think:

Certainties:

Matthew Scarlett - the best full-back in the game today. Unlike last season, there are few genuine contenders for the AA full-back spot and Scarlett's form has been almost career-best as he has averaged nearly 17 disposals a game, which is ridiculous for a full-back.

Jimmy Bartel - his season as a whole has been underrated and the midfielder looks set to make a massive challenge for back-to-back Brownlows. He has averaged an impressive 27.53 disposals a game and before the Melbourne game, had racked up more than 30 disposals in his last 6 games. Is 2nd in the league in disposals.

Gary Ablett Jr - the winner of last season's AFLPA MVP award last season and the AA ruckrover has had a season arguably finest than 2007. Although he has missed 4 and a half games through injury, he has averaged 27.93 disposals a game and has kicked 19 goals.

Joel Corey - this durable midfielder has excelled from his stellar AA 2007 season to an even better season. He is probably Geelong's most consistent performer and holds a strong chance at grabbing a second club Best and Fairest. Has averaged an astounding 29.21 disposals a game, has played every game and has collected 29 disposals or more in 15 out of his 19 games this season. Is first in the AFL in disposals and stands a strong chance of a promotion from the AA interchange.

Good Chances:

Joel Selwood - one of the most highly talented midfielders in the AFL today, he has produced a second season even better than his debut one. He averaged 20.5 disposals in the first 10 games before missing round 11 through injury. Since his return in round 12, he has averaged 31 disposals. He leads the league in free kicks received and only a slow start to the season in a highly-contested AA position (the midfield) may ruin his chance of joining the prestigious team.

Corey Enright - this half-back flanker has been arguably the most underrated player in the Geelong line-up for many years now, even after the success of 2007 he received little fanfare. He has 23.79 disposals a game but what has really caught the eye has been his form in the last 6 weeks when he has averaged 30.5 disposals. Compared to the midfield, the half-back flank spot is not as highly contested and a lack of contenders could see Enright pinch a spot in the AA team.

Tom Harley - the captain of Geelong has had a fine campaign this season, and has excelled in his role of being the third man up. Is the permanent owner of the 'Most Marks from Opposition Kicks' and frequently holds his opponents goalless. Can be exposed at one-on-ones but has been less exposed this season (partially because of the team's increasing success).

Slight Possibilities:

Mathew Stokes - this feisty little foward-turned-midfielder has continued to excel in his third season at AFL level. Not only has he just exceed his goal tally from last season (32) with his 4 goals last night to lift him to an accurate 33.14, but he has also averaged 18.88 disposals a game with a season-high of 31 against Essendon in round 2. Will figure strongly in the Club Best and Fairest but may fall under the radar of AA selectors.

Cameron Ling - still one of the league's best taggers, the lovable redhead has had a good season but has failed to reach the oustanding level of 2007. He has averaged only 23.24 disposals a game, and has only reached the magic tally of 30 disposals twice this season. His goals, which were probably his tipping point in getting into the team last year, have dropped off dramatically with only 12.4 so far. Has been successful in stopping most of his opponents this season and is still arguably the league's best tagger.

Andrew Mackie - the half-back flanker is probably playing his best season season so far, and has averaged 22.94 disposals playing off both tall and small opponents. He has also contributed up forward with 11 goals. Has had 30 or more disposals twice this season but hard to see him sneak in ahead of Enright. Steve Johnson - the mercurial forward hasn't been as impressive as he was last season but has still averaged 19.53 disposals and kicked 39.27 (significantly short of his return of 49.33 from less games last season). His early season form looked like he would be set to earn a second AA jumper but since the mid-season, has played too many games where he had little impact.

Darren Milburn - similar to Ling, has done his job but failed to be outstanding as he was last season. Age seems to suggest he probably won't recapture his 2007 form anytime soon. Could get a spot if there is a lack of options in the backline but unlikely.


Conclusion:

I personally believe that all of my certainties (Scarlett, Ablett, Bartel and Corey) will get a spot in the team, or at the very least 3 out or 4. I think there is a chance that one or two players from my good chance category will also earn a spot. However, I struggle to see a player from the slight possibility group mounting much of a challenge.
I suspect Geelong will receive between 4-6 AA's which is still a fair effort as before last season, the record amount of AA's was 6 by Brisbane a few years back. We also mustn't forget the indestructable Essendon of 2000, who lost only one game for the H&A season (a feat Geelong stand a good chance of replicating) only got 4 AA's. To put my prediction on a number, I would say we will receive 5 All Australian's and they will be Scarlett, Bartel, Ablett, Corey and Harley (on the interchange). I dearly hope Selwood makes the cut though as he is one of my favourites!

 

[themuddy#3]

so from what people are saying:
certainties
ablett
bartel
scarlett
corey

Smokies( expect about 3 or 4 of these to make it )
1. Enright
2. Selwood
3. Ling
4. milburn
5. steve johnson
6. Harley
7. Mackie
8. Stokes
9. Kelly

Outs from last year
egan (remember him)
cam mooney

 

[madcat001]

I'd say:

Ablett
Bartel
Corey
Scarlett
--
Selwood
Enright

The bottom may miss, but will probably make the cut.

 

[krisholio14]

Tom Harley has been outstanding this year and should make it, and should also give the captaincy a real shake too.

Heres my breakdown...

Definites: Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Scarlett

Should make it: Ling, Harley, Enright

Could make it but probably won't: SJ, Selwood, Milburn

Worthy of consideration, but won't make it: Kelly, Mackie, Stokes, Chapman

 

[FinalFive]

Yes:

1. Ablett Jr.
2. Bartel
3. Scarlett
4. Ling
5. Milburn

Maybe:

6. Corey
7. Selwood
8. Chapman
9. S. Johnson
10. Enright

 

[SriLankanCat]

We have had a great season...but lets not forget there are 15 other teams with 22 players each week...if my maths is correct that is over 300 guys who can make it...

In my opinion:

Definites
G Ablett
J Corey
M Scarlett

Others

Enright deserves a spot. Cameron Ling is ok. J Selwood, maybe?

Mackie has had some poor games mixed with some good ones, i dont think he warrants an AA guernsey. I reckon there are other guys ahead of him for sure.

Stokesy is a good little player but i reckon other small forwards have been better. No way Mooney will make it.

We know that Franklin will def be an AA. J Brown and Fev will probably get in. As maligned as Fev is, he is second leadng goal kicker and an All Australian.

In the ruck, no way Ottens should get in, has not played anywhere near a full season.

 

[cats2rise]

Ablett
Bartel
Corey
Scarlett all should make it
----
One or two of Harley, S Johnson, Selwood and Milburn may make it.

 

[Last Line Hero]

The following players I just couldn't see missing All- Australian this season:

BP: Tom Harley

FB: Matthew Scarlett

HBF: Corey Enright

W: Joel Corey

C: Jimmy Bartel

RR: Gary Ablett

** (INT) Selwood and (INT/HBF) Milburn are real chances, Selwood in particular, his form has been just irresistable and made even more so via his recent dominance.

My progressive AA side is:

T. Harley (Geel) ... M. Scarlett (Geel) ... D. Pratt (NM)

D. Morris (WB) ... N. Bock (Ade) ... C. Enright (Geel)

J. Corey (Geel) ... J. Bartel (Geel) ... M. Richardson (Rich)

R. O' Keefe (Syd) ... M. Pavlich (Fre) ... R. Murphy (WB)

B. Fevola (Carl) ... L. Franklin (Haw) ... P. Medhurst (Coll)

D. Cox (WC) ... G. Ablett (Geel) ... B. Harvey (NM)

S. Mitchell (Haw)
D. Hille (Ess)
L. Hodge (Haw)
A. Cooney (WB)

 

[catempire]

The following players I just couldn't see missing All- Australian this season:

BP: Tom Harley

FB: Matthew Scarlett

HBF: Corey Enright

W: Joel Corey

C: Jimmy Bartel

RR: Gary Ablett

** (INT) Selwood and (INT/HBF) Milburn are real chances, Selwood in particular, his form has been just irresistable and made even more so via his recent dominance.

My progressive AA side is:

T. Harley (Geel) ... M. Scarlett (Geel) ... D. Pratt (NM)

D. Morris (WB) ... N. Bock (Ade) ... C. Enright (Geel)

J. Corey (Geel) ... J. Bartel (Geel) ... M. Richardson (Rich)

R. O' Keefe (Syd) ... M. Pavlich (Fre) ... R. Murphy (WB)

B. Fevola (Carl) ... L. Franklin (Haw) ... P. Medhurst (Coll)

D. Cox (WC) ... G. Ablett (Geel) ... B. Harvey (NM)

S. Mitchell (Haw)
D. Hille (Ess)
L. Hodge (Haw)
A. Cooney (WB)

Good effort. Not far off.

Ryan O'Keefe having kicked only 21 goals for the season, simply cannot make it.

Murphy is dropping right off late in the season.

Steve Johnson has been a model of consistency and probably as good as he was last season when he made it. I'd have him on one flank.

Boomer Harvey on the other. As he was named last year.

Bartel to rover and one of your bench midfielders to centre.

I don't actually think he should, but I think Richo will come into the side also.

 

[Last Line Hero]

Good effort. Not far off.

Ryan O'Keefe having kicked only 21 goals for the season, simply cannot make it.

Murphy is dropping right off late in the season.

Steve Johnson has been a model of consistency and probably as good as he was last season when he made it. I'd have him on one flank.

Boomer Harvey on the other. As he was named last year.

Bartel to rover and one of your bench midfielders to centre.

I don't actually think he should, but I think Richo will come into the side also.

It's interesting isn't it. I've just had a look at the statistics and they provide some interesting reading:

Johnson v. O' Keefe
19.5 disposals per game < 20.6 disposals per game
5.7 marks per game > 5.0 marks per game
39 goals > 21 goals
2.4 tackles per game < 3.3 tackles per game
20 goal assists > 14 goal assists
59 goals contributed > 35 goals contributed
80 inside 50's < 82 inside 50's

O' Keefe has had all the hype this season up in Sydney and he'll probably win their B&F, I must admit this was a large factor behind my choosing him. Different types of players, O' Keefe is a real hit up, possession type half forward. Johnson plays a little closer to goal and in a side who just dominates when attacking. Really a lottery between the two. Looking at the numbers you'd have to lean towards Johnson.

Murphy has dropped off a touch but his numbers and form for the vast majority of the year mean he is more than deserving.

 

[themuddy#3]

It's interesting isn't it. I've just had a look at the statistics and they provide some interesting reading:

Johnson v. O' Keefe
19.5 disposals per game < 20.6 disposals per game
5.7 marks per game > 5.0 marks per game
39 goals > 21 goals
2.4 tackles per game < 3.3 tackles per game
20 goal assists > 14 goal assists
59 goals contributed > 35 goals contributed
80 inside 50's < 82 inside 50's

O' Keefe has had all the hype this season up in Sydney and he'll probably win their B&F, I must admit this was a large factor behind my choosing him. Different types of players, O' Keefe is a real hit up, possession type half forward. Johnson plays a little closer to goal and in a side who just dominates when attacking. Really a lottery between the two. Looking at the numbers you'd have to lean towards Johnson.

Murphy has dropped off a touch but his numbers and form for the vast majority of the year mean he is more than deserving.

IMO alan didak has had a better season than both of them playing much the same role.

and im pretty sure there is no rule about crashing cars that makes you exempt from consideration...

also, no love for joel selwood? he has been more consistent and influential than Luke hodge this year...

 

[catempire]

IMO alan didak has had a better season than both of them playing much the same role.

and im pretty sure there is no rule about crashing cars that makes you exempt from consideration...

also, no love for joel selwood? he has been more consistent and influential than Luke hodge this year...

Didak will now finish the year with 24 goals. Not enough IMO for a spot.

He's very close to SJ statistically right now but Johnson will have the benefit of 3 more games.

 

[forrrestGump]

blake has been playing really well as second ruck, must be a chance

 

[themuddy#3]

blake has been playing really well as second ruck, must be a chance

i dont think they go for #2 ruckmen, just to top tiers. eg. hille and cox

 

[Last Line Hero]

IMO alan didak has had a better season than both of them playing much the same role.

and im pretty sure there is no rule about crashing cars that makes you exempt from consideration...

also, no love for joel selwood? he has been more consistent and influential than Luke hodge this year...

Selwood is a huge chance,but ou know how sometimes young guys, even if they play great football just don't get picked for whatever reason?

I went Hodge as more of a backup HB type. I didn't want 3 midfielders on my bench, so I chose someone who had that versatility element. It was either going to be he or Sam Fisher in that spot.

 

[Brasil2007]

It's interesting isn't it. I've just had a look at the statistics and they provide some interesting reading:

Johnson v. O' Keefe
19.5 disposals per game < 20.6 disposals per game
5.7 marks per game > 5.0 marks per game
39 goals > 21 goals
2.4 tackles per game < 3.3 tackles per game
20 goal assists > 14 goal assists
59 goals contributed > 35 goals contributed
80 inside 50's < 82 inside 50's

Stokes has 18.9 disposals per game, 6.2 marks per game, 33 goals, 2.5 tackles per game, 17 goal assists, but is well behind on 54 inside 50s. Still I think he miht be in the mix.