Adagio's Needs-based Phantom Draft - with explanations

[adagio]

Finally, my needs thread is able to serve its purpose.

I'm only supplying the first two rounds due to time constraints, but that's where all the interest really is anyway. Might supply more later if feedback is positive.

* Please note: this phantom is a result of
a) Matt Burgan's draft ratings.
b) The "Your club's needs" thread. If you think I've got your club's needs wrong, you should have contributed to it.

If I do say so myself, I think this could end up being pretty accurate, as this year's draft is always being talked up as very needs-based (this is the point behind it). Enjoy.

 

[adagio]

First round

1) Melbourne – Jack Trengove
2) Melbourne – Tom Scully
Demons fans wanted elite midfielders, and boy do they get them here.

3) Richmond – Dustin Martin.
Richmond have a lot of needs, with elite midfielders certainly among them. Martin is best available. Powerful, exquisitely skilled, and a leader – just what they need.

4) Fremantle – Anthony Morabito
Aside from clearly being best available and a WA boy, big-bodied midfielders were high on the wishlist from Freo supporters. Morabito will be a gun.

5) North Melbourne – Gary Rohan
Pacey, skilful outside runners are high on the menu for the Kangas, and Rohan certainly fits the bill. Lucas and Jetta also suit, but Rohan seems the most highly rated.

6) Sydney – Ben Cunnington
Sydney are after an elite midfielder, no doubt about it. Cunnington is best available, though Lucas could conceivably slot in.

7) West Coast – Lewis Jetta
Crumbers with high defensive pressure and classy midfielders are the top two requirements for our list. Jetta can start in the forward line and later move to the wing, fulfilling both needs in a draft we only have 3 picks in.

8) Port Adelaide – Kane Lucas
Port could do with some A-grade midfielders, especially after Burgoyne’s switch. Lucas is certainly capable, and the Adelaide lifestyle will suit him more than the VM kids.

9) Port Adelaide – Luke Tapscott
Aside from elite midfielders, defensive-minded crumbers and KPF’s are on the menu for the Power. Tapscott is often described as a powerful midfielder with great disposal – so put a tick in the midfielder box. As a lead-up forward he’s also extremely dangerous, and has some ground-level presence too, so he’s a sort of compromised answer to each need. He’s best available and a SA kid – it just makes sense.

10) Essendon – Jake Melksham
Priorities at Windy Hill are classy midfielders and inside ball magnets. Melksham wins plenty of his own ball, plays inside/outside and he’s a great user of the footy. And he’s a VM kid. No-brainer IMO.

11) Melbourne – John Butcher
Melbourne fans will be stoked with this, after earlier being talked up as a top-2 pick. They need another KPF prospect, and they definitely get it with Butcher.

12) Carlton – Jake Carlisle
First on the list for Blues fans was a KP forward with the ability to play back, given Fevola’s departure and the problems they have in defence. Carlisle fits that description to a tee, and is expected to be a 1st-rounder so he’s probably best available anyway.

13) Adelaide – Troy Taylor
Adelaide don’t have too many holes in their list, but require a bit of Motlop-esque X-factor in the forward line. Taylor is their man. It may look a bit early for him, but Adelaide always pull some left-field selections out of the hat and Taylor’s draft range is actually as high as 8. NT kid as well, so he won’t have to travel far, and the juvi record won’t worry a club as professional as Adelaide. I can definitely see this one going down for real.

14) Sydney – Daniel Talia
Even before writing this up, and way before trade week, I’ve always felt Talia would end up a Swan, so this just works out perfect. They need some KP defenders, and Talia is as highly rated as they come. His ability to run off his opponent is perfect for Sydney’s style of play. Match made in heaven.

15) Western Bulldogs – Andrew Moore
Bulldogs need a crumbing forward and, granted, Moore isn’t really this. But they also need a tall utility type – which he is. He’ll add another dimension to their forward line, and he’s close to best available at this point. Like the above two picks, I can just really see this happening.

16) Port Adelaide – Aaron Black
With two A-grade mid/HF’s locked away, Port have to address their KPF stocks here. Black appears to have all the tools, and is often touted as a late first-round pick. Port also need crumbers and lock-down defenders, but they can be taken cheaply and KPF’s with the talent of this guy can’t. The fact that he crosses the Nullabor with Lucas is also a nice touch.

17) Geelong – Brad Sheppard
This is the first pick I had trouble on. Geelong have a few “wants” but no real urgent needs. Running defenders and classy midfielders make the wishlists of Cats posters though, and Sheppard slots into both categories. They’ll also probably just go best available, and Sheppard isn’t expected to go any later than 20. Vardy and Bastinac also strongly considered.

 

[adagio]

Second round

18) Melbourne – Nathan Vardy
Dees fans get their dream draft. They need an A-grade ruckman and Vardy is the best in the draft. They walk away with two superstar midfielders and the best KPF and ruckman available. Melbourne supporters - start praying that in the real thing, Geelong go small with their pick.

19) Richmond – Ryan Bastinac
I really really rate this kid, and his class and running prowess will be of huge benefit to the Tigers. They need classy midfielders and rebounding HBF’s with damaging disposal. Here’s your man.

20) Fremantle – Ben Griffiths
Was praying he would slide to WC’s pick, but Freo snare him. They really, really need to address their KP stocks and Griffiths is just too good to pass up.

21) North Melbourne – Koby Stevens
A surprise he got this far, but then there have to be some sliders. North fans want elite midfielders, and considering how much North are linked to Cunnington, this would be an awesome result for the Kangas as Stevens isn’t far behind him.

22) West Coast – Jordan Gysberts
Somewhat of another slider, but that’s exactly the advantage in having pick 22. WC want another classy midfielder, and the word ‘class’ seems synonymous with Gysberts. Perfect result IMO and I’d be stoked with this result in the real thing.

23) West Coast – Jack Fitzpatrick
OK, I don’t like this, at all. I really don’t like Fitzpatrick much, but I have to remain impartial. We need a versatile KPF option, and Fitzpatrick is the only decent one left. Hope this doesn’t happen, but according to his draft rating it very much could.

24) Essendon – Allen Christensen
Essendon fans wanted some inside ball magnets, and Christensen certainly wins plenty of contested ball. As a potential first-rounder, he’s pretty much best available anyway. Moreover, he can also go forward and provide the defensive pressure they’re after up there. Perfect fit IMO.

25) North Melbourne – Jesse Crighton
Aside from being best available, Crighton adds some class to what is a bit of a blue-collar midfield. With the tenacity of Stevens and the speed of Rohan locked away, this is a fantastic result for the blue and white.

26) Essendon – Nat Fyfe
Crumbers and classy medium forwards also feature prominently on Essendon’s christmas list, and Fyfe fulfils both criteria. Once again, I can just instinctually see this happening.. Essendon love the WA kids.

27) Brisbane – Travis Colyer
Lions fans said they wanted ball-winning midfielders and small forwards. Colyer’s an AA mid and many seem to think he has potential starting out as a forward pocket too. He’ll also add a bit of speed to a midfield which (IMO) appears a little one-paced. Great fit.

28) Geelong – Sam Reid
Once again, Geelong’s pick proves a real quandary for me. Do they go the athletic ruckman in Craig, or shore up their defensive stocks for when Milburn, Scarlett and co. move on? Line-ball call, but almost just so Adelaide could address their own needs, I went the defender in Reid. He has the potential to be a KP, bit if not would be a rebounding third-tall type anyway. Touted as highly as a first rounder.

29) Adelaide – James Craig
A match made in heaven. The athletic, South Australian, U18 AA ruckman is the perfect answer to Adelaide fans’ desire to spruce up their ruck division.

30) Collingwood – Josh Thomas
Collingwood will probably just go best available. According to very strong rumours, Thomas will be best available in Pies recruiters’ eyes, so I’ve thrown him in here to keep the peace. My personal choice was Hill (as they need KPF's), or perhaps Menzel.

31) Western Bulldogs – Sam Shaw
It really is a toss-up at this point of proceedings, but the Bulldogs apparently need a CHB prospect so I went with Shaw. He could apparently be taken as high as 20, so of the key defenders left he’s the most highly rated. He’s 191cm and versatile, so he probably fills the tall utility need as well.

32) St. Kilda – Matthew Panos
A big priority for the Saints is a KPF, especially after the recruitment of Lovett filled their “quick midfielder” team vacancy. Panos, an U18 AA full-forward, is surely the best option. His draft rating varies, but goes as high as pick 15.

33) Essendon – Mitch Duncan
A big slider in my books, and I simply couldn’t let him slip any further. Evidently, medium lead-up forwards aren’t in huge demand. However, Essendon fans expressed a desire for a medium forward, and even with the recruitment of Williams I think they’d still be over the moon to snare Duncan. Along with the Kangas and Melbourne, they’ve done extremely well

 

[Vantz]

Very good Phantom, especially enjoyed your reasonings

In regards too Adelaide, you may be right. Definitely believe Adelaide need a quick outside player or crumbing forward. Also Adelaide already have 5 developing ruckman on their list.

Your logic with Port picking two quality midfielders with its first picks is one i also share.

Only selections I have queries on are Jake Melksham to Essendon. Melksham could possibly go as high as 8 however I am not getting to carried away with his late season form.

Also Andrew Moore, personally I do not see him as a top 30 player, however he has been linked as one. I guess in such an even draft selections are subjective.

I personally believe if the draft unfolded the way you had planned, the Dogs would not look past Brad Sheppard.

 

[_RT_]

Don't mind Richmond picks and although I didn't contribute to your other thread, I believe that if Griffiths is around at 19 he wont be passed over unless its for a better KPP. We are into Griffiths big time, just need the cards to fall our way with regards the first round.

 

[Toadvine]

Don't mind Richmond picks and although I didn't contribute to your other thread, I believe that if Griffiths is around at 19 he wont be passed over unless its for a better KPP. We are into Griffiths big time, just need the cards to fall our way with regards the first round.

Agreed RT. If we got him to slot into FF a forward line wouldn't look to bad for the future.

 

[adagio]

Yep won't argue with that at all. Problem was Richmond appear to have a lot of needs to cover. Bastinac's versatility was therefore a big factor. Plus he was, subjectively, the best available at 19.

Griffiths would certainly slot in well though, they could use his presence up forward for sure. Especially with Martin locked away.. going tall 2nd up makes a hell of a lot of sense.

From a WC perspective, hopefully this happens. I've got a bit of manlove going for Bastinac and anything that helps him slide to us at 22 I'm all for. Plus it might mean Freo take Fitzpatrick out of our hands, as they have to go tall with their 2nd pick.

 

[Koutafidamedis]

Good phantom. Glad to see someone finally predicting carlton will take someone other than tallia. Our need for KPD is not as bad as 90% of supporters (from other clubs) make it out to be.

 

[ratten7]

It would be good to hear someone tell you their weaknesses to balance the ledger and give us a more realistic indication of where they are at in terms of AFL ready. All you really hear or see is the highlight pakages and strengths and little on the weaknesses.

 

[Andy_Mac]

Great work for a Melbourne perspective!!

the only thing i could suggest is that we might take Bastinac at 18, and hold out for big Max Gawn at 34.

 

[swans16]

I hope the National Draft is exactly like that. From a Sydney Perspective. Cunnington and Talia or Lucas and Talia.

 

[lionshine]

Great draft mate. Loved the read. Very happy with Colyer. I think him or Bartlett would be great. I still live in hope that Melksham will slip to the Lions but it seems very unlikely!

 

[coasting]

This is very similar to what I think could happen, except I would have Melksham before Tapscott and possibly even before Lucas. I also think Butcher could go a bit earlier.

I'm not a big fan of Gysberts and I think he is a poor fit for Subi oval. It would be awesome if Bastinac or Stevens slid to our pick, it seems like the top talent cuts out at 21!

 

[Nater]

Not bad at all, i just see it hard for Port to pass on Butcher at 8 or 9 if he's still there, we've been crying out for someone to take the reigns from Tredders for about 3 years and i cant see us passing by the best KPP in this draft. Your picks for Port would be spot on imo if Butcher went early.

 

[Lions1024]

I think this phantom might just be the closest to the real thing. I pretty much agree with you on all the players and if i was to do a phantom it would be exactly like this (Maybe Sheppard a bit higher).

The thing about Port though is that they need another KPP but i think the idea of Tapscott and Lucas in the midfield is too good to refuse, both have great disposal skills. I think if Port chooses Butcher expect Melbourne to draft another midfielder rather then a KPP. Melbournes midfield is looking looking extremely scary: Trengrove,Scully,Grimes,Morton all have the potential to be elite (The new fab four?).

 

[saladin]

would be difficult to script a better outcome for essendon imo. maybe risk bartlett at #33 in the search for an elite mid.

 

[swans4eva]

The perfect draft for Sydney... Talia and Cunnington! Would be ecstatic

 

[adagio]

It's funny how, with needs properly taken into account, every club just about comes away a winner. For me, that's the biggest indicator that this is pretty accurate.

It surprisingly worked out really well. Almost too well. Apart from the odd slider, every club fulfilled their needs and most players were, more or less, taken where they should be (e.g: Black is meant to be late first rounder, and was snared at 16, Bastinac is an early 2nd and goes at 19, most agree Colyer is a 2nd-rounder but IMO West Coast at 22/23 is too early for him - accordingly, he goes a few picks later at 27).

Maybe Burgan's done a similar early phantom. Apparently you can throw a blanket over about 30 players after the top 10, so a lot will depend on what clubs require. Often, the player I selected landed smack-bang in the middle of his draft range for them..

 

[adagio]

Not bad at all, i just see it hard for Port to pass on Butcher at 8 or 9 if he's still there, we've been crying out for someone to take the reigns from Tredders for about 3 years and i cant see us passing by the best KPP in this draft. Your picks for Port would be spot on imo if Butcher went early.

This is the first real big decision in the draft, and it'll set the tone for the rest of it.

I almost had Butcher going to Port, and if it wasn't for them having pick 16, I would have done it. The feedback I got from Port supporters (specifically, Enviable Tradition) was that Port's first priority was to get some elite mids with the departure of Burgoyne. So one out of picks 8/9 had to be used for that, with Lucas a logical choice.

Pick 9 is where it gets interesting. Either they take Butcher and take the best available mid at 16, or take another midfielder at 9 and jump on the best available KPP at 16.

Now, one thing about this draft is that all the KPP prospects are very speculative. No guarantees on any of them. There's doubts over Butcher's kicking, Griffith's durability, Black is a later bloomer, etc. And you need to make top 10 picks count.

I just felt, for them, it was a better overall strategy to take Tapscott at 9, who is not only a local kid but in a way kills two or three birds with one stone for them (as I said in the OP - it just makes sense). Then, they sit back, wait, and jump on the best KPF at 16 - and while Butcher will be gone, Carlisle, Griffiths and Black are all very highly rated. Some reckon Black is a more rounded player than Butcher, so if I was a Port supporter I'd be stoked with this outcome.

 

[cmndstab]

Admirable job

 

[BigSexc]

good thread, would read again

 

[danielnajdek]

I would think if collingwood had the choice between Panos and Thomas they would go for Panos. We need a forward who can kick straight unlike Cloke and Panos can definitely kick straight

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Shocking draft for Westcoast. Gysberts and Fitzpatrick? looks like something we would pull out of the late 90's.

Fyfe, Colyer and Duncan all still available. Sure it's different but it makes little towards upward of no sense, we dont need Fitzpatrick or Gysberts, we need forward potency and our recruiters have made this pretty bloody clear.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Pretty Good effort mate. The only query i have is, if the roos have three picks inside the top 30 i am 100% sure we will take a KP forward with one them. I can't see Panos slipping past our pick 21 or 25. I also can't see us taking the risk on Rohan, I'd like to think we'd go after Cunnington or Possibly Butcher.

 

[Nater]

This is the first real big decision in the draft, and it'll set the tone for the rest of it.

I almost had Butcher going to Port, and if it wasn't for them having pick 16, I would have done it. The feedback I got from Port supporters (specifically, Enviable Tradition) was that Port's first priority was to get some elite mids with the departure of Burgoyne. So one out of picks 8/9 had to be used for that, with Lucas a logical choice.

Pick 9 is where it gets interesting. Either they take Butcher and take the best available mid at 16, or take another midfielder at 9 and jump on the best available KPP at 16.

Now, one thing about this draft is that all the KPP prospects are very speculative. No guarantees on any of them. There's doubts over Butcher's kicking, Griffith's durability, Black is a later bloomer, etc. And you need to make top 10 picks count.

I just felt, for them, it was a better overall strategy to take Tapscott at 9, who is not only a local kid but in a way kills two or three birds with one stone for them (as I said in the OP - it just makes sense). Then, they sit back, wait, and jump on the best KPF at 16 - and while Butcher will be gone, Carlisle, Griffiths and Black are all very highly rated. Some reckon Black is a more rounded player than Butcher, so if I was a Port supporter I'd be stoked with this outcome.

Personally i think the difference between Butcher and Black is > than Tapscott and players you've listed available to us at 16 such as Shepperd, Stevens and Gysbert. In fact if u tell me we pick up Butcher, Lucas and Stevens im freakin wrapped. Like i said with your selections, if Butcher gets nabbed at 5 or 7 (cant see Sydney taking him with White and probably Bradshaw coming in) then yup i'd be all over Tapscott and Lucas like a rash.

Butcher, Lucas & Stevens and i give us an A
Lucas, Tapscott and Black i give us maybe a B+