List Mgmt. Adelaide Crows 2021 List Management thread

[Mutineer]

Yeah... I'm always wary of getting players who can't get a game, supposedly because their team is stacked in their position. Mostly there are very good reasons why they can't get a game - i.e. they're not actually good enough.

Take Hately as an example. Supposedly he couldn't get a game in GWS' star studded midfield. We get a closer look at him in the pre-season games, and now most of us have come to the realisation that the reason he couldn't get games at GWS is because he's actually not that good.

There will always be a few who are genuinely held back because of star players ahead of them... but there are a lot more who simply aren't up to scratch.

LOL

FFS Hately's just got his feet under the desk with us and you've seemingly written him off. Settle down.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Yes, thats the problem with ruckman is that they take so long to develop.
But I like how Freo went out and targeted a couple of young ruckman a few years ago in Meeks and Darcy ? ( I think) and now it is paying dividends for them.
At least you give yourself a chance of getting a good ruckman instead of depth fillers as we seem to keep doing.
I think we got lucky with Sauce coming back after starting at Carlton but I don't think you can rely on that strategy

That 'plucking a ruckman just as they become ready' strategy seems to work for a few teams. Sauce, Witts, Pittonet, Martin are some recent examples I can think of

That's an extremely risky approach, though. Would much prefer to just have one or two waiting in the wings for a few years. It's what Port are currently doing with Sam Hayes too, who is going to be very good once Lycett declines

 

[maxlilly]

I agree that we should be looking at drafting one in 2022 or 2023. I can't be critical of them for not having a developmental ruckman on the list right now, given ROB's age.

But what if we develop a better ruckman that ROB, we let ROB go and we improve the team

 

[Vader]

Nope 2022....Will Verrall.

Happy with 2022 or 2023. Either way, it's not a need in 2021, and the lack of a development ruckman on our current list is not something to be concerned about.

 

[maxlilly]

That 'plucking a ruckman just as they become ready' strategy seems to work for a few teams. Sauce, Witts, Pittonet, Martin are some recent examples I can think of

That's an extremely risky approach, though. Would much prefer to just have one or two waiting in the wings for a few years. It's what Port are currently doing with Sam Hayes too, who is going to be very good once Lycett declines

Yep, Sam Hayes is a good example.
Been on the Port list for quite a few years developing nicely.
Even a couple of years ago in the trial Port v Adelaide, Hayes touched up both Strachan and Frampton so you feel confident that he will be able to come in and be ready at afl level when needed

 

[Danger in Texas]

Happy with 2022 or 2023. Either way, it's not a need in 2021, and the lack of a development ruckman on our current list is not something to be concerned about.

Just to hypothetically play devil's advocate - say we draft a ruck in 2022, and they take six years to develop into a good AFL-quality ruck (i.e. ready by 2028). The last good year that we get out of ROB is the final year of his current contract, before he starts to heavily decline at age 30/31 in 2026

What do you do for those middle two years? Do you grab a stop-gap ruck, do you continue to play a cooked ROB, or do you throw a still-developing ruckman into AFL waters? It's why my preference is to go a little bit earlier if possible, just so any possible transition is as smooth as it can be

 

[Mutineer]

Yep, Sam Hayes is a good example.
Been on the Port list for quite a few years developing nicely.
Even a couple of years ago in the trial Port v Adelaide, Hayes touched up both Strachan and Frampton so you feel confident that he will be able to come in and be ready at afl level when needed

And probably doing his ACL in his 2nd year from memory has put his ascension back a year or two. Common knowledge at draft time Sam had endurance issues and the reason he dropped down the draft board but he's had plenty of time now to work on his tank.

 

[skam85]

Gawn was born in December 1991, and Jackson was drafted in 2019... and you're saying that he'll be cherry ripe when Gawn retires (I agree).
ROB was born in August 1995, so working to the same developmental timeline (and assuming Gawn & ROB retire at the same age), we should be looking to draft his replacement in 2023.

Can't hurt to get ahead of the game one year early.

 

[Vader]

But what if we develop a better ruckman that ROB, we let ROB go and we improve the team

ROB is one of the better ruckmen in the AFL. Yes, we may develop a better ruckman, but the odds of doing so aren't that great (compare the number of rucks drafted vs the number who are better than him), and the resources spent on that "better ruckman" would be better used on fixing other areas of our list - areas where we have a real weakness.

Our priority when it comes to the 2021 draft should be:
1. Midfielders
2. Midfielders
3. Midfielders
4. Tall Forwards

Look 5 years down the track - Sloane, Laird, Crouch, Seedsman & Smith are all gone. That's our whole engine room which needs to be replaced. Sholl & Schoenberg are the only two (relatively) proven younger mids on our list, though I have high hopes for Berry & Pedlar. We still need to find at least 3 more AFL quality midfielders in the next 5 years. We do have Cook, O'Connor & Gollant, but it's way too early for me to have a handle on their chances of making it. I'm less than bullish about Hately's chances.

In the forward line, Tex will be gone, and TT will (hopefully) be coming into his prime. I have little faith in Fogarty, Frampton & Himmelberg, so we need to be looking at drafting a 2nd KPP forward to replace the big Texan.

Given ROB's quality, and how long he'll likely remain at the top of his game, development ruckmen are not a 2021 priority.

 

[Vader]

Can't hurt to get ahead of the game one year early.

Mutineer has identified a likely candidate in 2022. I don't have a problem with us drafting a development ruck next year, but it's not a priority this year. We have much greater needs in 2021.

 

[kick it to me_]

Honestly Paddy Dow was an excellent prospect on what he had done at U18 level and I can assure you if Carlton didn't take him where they did he'd have been snapped up quickly by other teams. You've got the very big advantage of hindsight that recruiters don't have. I'd have had more concern with them taking Lochie O'Brien at pick 10 because other than an elite kick he was very outside and a lot had doubts about his contested game.

Mutineer, you would best to answer thus why Oscar Allen slide?

On SM-G988B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mismatched]

It's a good point

A fringe player from a contender is not the same as a fringe player from a struggler

Contending clubs with an oversupply in one area of the ground...?

I think you’ve got to be careful with fringe players whether they be at good clubs or bad. Some simply need opportunity, these are the holy grail. Others unfortunately simply just aren’t that good and are getting propped up by the system/players around them. By the same token, some fringe players at poor performing clubs may be worth targeting as they similarly may fill a role and improve by being in a better system, or simply by being in a different system/atmosphere.

Fringe players are a risk and you’re probably looking at a 1 in 3-4 success-failure rate whether they come from good clubs or bad.

 

[skam85]

Mutineer has identified a likely candidate in 2022. I don't have a problem with us drafting a development ruck next year, but it's not a priority this year. We have much greater needs in 2021.

I'd love for us to have a crack at Tom De Koning from Carlton.
I doubt we'd get far because will go past Pittonet when fit, but he is a very good prospect. It's definitely worth a shot.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I'd love for us to have a crack at Tom De Koning from Carlton.
I doubt we'd get far because will go past Pittonet when fit, but he is a very good prospect. It's definitely worth a shot.

I like TDK a lot, but he's probably going to be ready to play consistent AFL very soon, so I don't really see the point for all parties. That'd give us two bonafide AFL rucks, when really ROB is all we need right now

Now if there's a TDK-level prospect available for grabs in 2025, I'd jump at the chance. Big *if*, though, so I'd still draft one in the next couple of drafts just in case

 

[Golumless]

Nope 2022....Will Verrall.

Is Keeler an option for ruck as well?

Providing he "accidentally ends up" playing meh football at North Adelaide to get to our NGA spots.

 

[Mutineer]

Is Keeler an option for ruck as well?

Providing he "accidentally ends up" playing meh football at North Adelaide to get to our NGA spots.

Not IMO, he's a forward.

And the likelihood of an athletic tall forward being there at pick 41 or after are miniscule.

 

[1970crow]

We just need to find the next ROB who can be ROB when ROB becomes cooked Sauce. Simple!

At the moment we're more in the Luke Lowden/Angus Graham territory unfortunately. Shudder.

What would have become of ROB if not for Sauce's longer injury. His first 2 games he hardly set the world on fire and it wasn't till Sauce's injury went from 2 till longer that ROB performed well enough to demand a spot. Still shelved him in favour of cooked sauce to finish the year though.

 

[1970crow]

At least we've offloaded Crocker and Stengle nice and quick. Barely 20 games between the three of those guys. Billy on the other hand...

Except Stengle can play.

 

[skam85]

Except Stengle can play.

He wasn't this unpolished talent some would have us believe. He was just okay. Like if you ordered Orazio Fantasia off Wish.

 

[Sanders]

And why a clearly underperforming McAsey over this year's top KPD draft prospects Rhett Bazzo and Josh Gibcus etc?

because of how fraught draft watchers assessments of KPD’s are for a start

 

[Sanders]

Back the players in
Back in the recruitment team
Back in our development environment

FFS you’d have to be on crack to still be peddling these lines

what we’ve been doing hasn’t created an elite team, club or development environment so we ought to be more open to different things

tinkering on fringe prospects hasnt been a winning strategy

 

[Crow till I die]

Back the players in
Back in the recruitment team
Back in our development environment

FFS you’d have to be on crack to still be peddling these lines

what we’ve been doing hasn’t created an elite team, club or development environment so we ought to be more open to different things

tinkering on fringe prospects hasnt been a winning strategy

At least we have been able to get a look at a few of the draft class of 2020 in berry, rowe and now thilthorpe. Its nice to see so many younger players getting a crack at it which makes a very refreshing change from the past modus operandi

 

[Grenville]

Happy with 2022 or 2023. Either way, it's not a need in 2021, and the lack of a development ruckman on our current list is not something to be concerned about.

The OBrien "shelf life" argument assumes everything remains constant. If he does an ACL this year how does that change things?
Implications are minimal in 2021 - results not important at this point - as long as he comes back strongly.
That's far from guaranteed though.

Developing ruckmen take 1 list spot and are routinely found late in the draft or as rookies. In ~ 3 years it starts to matter. Given the lead time it takes to develop a ruckman why risk the single point of failure?

 

[Vader]

The OBrien "shelf life" argument assumes everything remains constant. If he does an ACL this year how does that change things?
Implications are minimal in 2021 - results not important at this point - as long as he comes back strongly.
That's far from guaranteed though.

Developing ruckmen take 1 list spot and are routinely found late in the draft or as rookies. In ~ 3 years it starts to matter. Given the lead time it takes to develop a ruckman why risk the single point of failure?

That's why you keep a Strachan/Lowden type ruckman on your list, as backup in case something does happen to the lead ruck.

 

[Golumless]

Are we entering a situation where we might actually get something for Jake Kelly

29

Jake Kelly

Age

29

Ht

190cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.5

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.6

4star

MG

157.8

2star

D

8.1

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

104.1

2star

D

14.8

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.8

4star

M

6.0

5star

T

4.2

5star

MG

107.0

2star

as a UFA?

I don't think it's the right call to even consider retaining him, 27 year old who looks like he's having a career year is just a recipe for disaster, especially for a rebuilding club. That said though, he is having a good year, and potentially good enough he could find another job at an AFL level. Especially as Hartigan, and Atkins did.