Adelaide - Where is the upside?

[The Donners]

The difference is, you're generally also rated by the bookies where you should be - about $20 for the flag. But this year is different - that's what I don't understand and the whole point of the thread.

<s******> what were the odds for Essendon to beat Collingwood on ANZAC Day?

The odds from bookies are clearly not a relevant argument.

 

[wavefall21]

Let me guess - Adelaide come a close second to Carlton in terms of young talent?

My point is that the young talent is still a few years from maturing, by which time the old stagers will have departed who, despite comments suggesting otherwise from the pro-Adelaide folk, remain an integral part of their structure and potential success.

I acknowledge there are two very different schools of thought on this topic, and only time will tell. There will be a bump of this thread one way or the other come August/September 2010...

Um no, u guessed wrong, why try and defend yourself with a stupid comment like that, and btw, Carl do have some of the best young talent in the land as well, but the Crows are ahead of us atm and have more depth in the youth department, I just think you make a crap point

 

[Fadge]

Um no, u guessed wrong, why try and defend yourself with a stupid comment like that, and btw, Carl do have some of the best young talent in the land as well, but the Crows are ahead of us atm and have more depth in the youth department, I just think you make a crap point

So that makes it Adelaide first, Carlton second?

 

[Fadge]

I'd just like to make it clear for those with reading difficulties - I have never said that Adelaide do not have talented youngsters. The principle point of this thread is:

Adelaide do not have the right balance - their talented youngsters are too young and their veterans, whom there remains a considerable reliance on, are too old - to be a genuine contender in 2010.

Thank you - I just wanted to get that off my chest.

 

[captain peanut]

For every poster who has suggested there is upside, there is a poster who doesn't see it. And part of my argument is that they actually have less upside between 2009 and 2010 than the likes of Hawthorn and Collingwood, meaning they shouldn't be ahead of either of them, let alone both, in premiership betting. My thread is all about 2010.

As I said, two schools of thought.

collingwood own adelaide in the games that count and have done so ever since they entered the comp. whether it's a last ditch goal in a semi final or a come from behind 4 goal win at aami stadium with a top 4 spot up for grabs such as we saw in 09, the pies always get the job done v the crows when it counts

how adel could possibly be ahead of the pies in flag betting for 2010 right now is simply staggering. pies were better than them in 2009, pies have added jolly and ball and crows have lost otten. and this after the crows were stopped in their tracks by the pies in a big final

adel have upside, no doubt. some good young players on the list. but more upside than the likes of coll? doubt it

 

[Coopers]

Do Adelaide have 4 quality onballers waiting in the wings?

Cook, Sloane, Petrenko, Armstrong.

Also, apparrently Talia is a midfielder.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

collingwood own adelaide in the games that count and have done so ever since they entered the comp. whether it's a last ditch goal in a semi final or a come from behind 4 goal win at aami stadium with a top 4 spot up for grabs such as we saw in 09, the pies always get the job done v the crows when it counts

how adel could possibly be ahead of the pies in flag betting for 2010 right now is simply staggering. pies were better than them in 2009, pies have added jolly and ball and crows have lost otten. and this after the crows were stopped in their tracks by the pies in a big final

adel have upside, no doubt. some good young players on the list. but more upside than the likes of coll? doubt it

Since Adelaide entered the competition in 1991.

Adelaide = 2 Premierships
Collingwood = Zero Premierships

Who cares what Collingwood's head to head is and when they won and when they didn't. The numbers that matter are just above.

Collingwood will not win a premiership or be a serious contender with its current group.

 

[wavefall21]

Since Adelaide entered the competition in 1991.

Adelaide = 2 Premierships
Collingwood = Zero Premierships

Who cares what Collingwood's head to head is and when they won and when they didn't. The numbers that matter are just above.

Collingwood will not win a premiership or be a serious contender with its current group.

Agreed, What I can't understand is what the pies head to head record with the crows has anything to do with the upside of the Crows list

 

[Fadge]

Cook, Sloane, Petrenko, Armstrong.

Also, apparrently Talia is a midfielder.

So it is those five that you'll be relying on to be the difference between premiership contenders and semi-final also-rans in 2010? Ok.

 

[Fadge]

Since Adelaide entered the competition in 1991.

Adelaide = 2 Premierships
Collingwood = Zero Premierships

Who cares what Collingwood's head to head is and when they won and when they didn't. The numbers that matter are just above.

Collingwood will not win a premiership or be a serious contender with its current group.

That just means Adelaide were lucky that Collingwood weren't thereabouts to stop them in their tracks in '97/'98

 

[Bacon8]

I'd just like to make it clear for those with reading difficulties - I have never said that Adelaide do not have talented youngsters. The principle point of this thread is:

Adelaide do not have the right balance - their talented youngsters are too young and their veterans, whom there remains a considerable reliance on, are too old - to be a genuine contender in 2010.

Thank you - I just wanted to get that off my chest.

I accept your point of view here. I don't believe the reliance on the elder statesmen is that great, but can see your point.

Do you also then believe that Collingwood DO have the right balance?

 

[Fadge]

I accept your point of view here. I don't believe the reliance on the elder statesmen is that great, but can see your point.

Do you also then believe that Collingwood DO have the right balance?

Certainly a better balance than the Crows and 2009 Collingwood. The injection of Jolly (28) and Ball (26), a tagger Buckley (we have never had a decent tagger - whether he is or not is yet to be seen), our 22/23 year olds with more than half a dozen finals matches already under their belts (Pendlebury, H. Shaw, O'Brien, Cloke, Thomas), a core of players in the prime of their careers (Swan, Didak, Davis, Maxwell) and our young guns with an extra pre-season under their belt but who have shown they are more than capable at the highest level (Anthony, Beams, Sidebottom, N. Brown).

It is without doubt the best balanced Collingwood team that I've seen for a premiership tilt for a very long time.

In short, assume your answer is yes.

But I digress, this thread's not about Collingwood.

 

[cmndstab]

So it is those five that you'll be relying on to be the difference between premiership contenders and semi-final also-rans in 2010? Ok.

There's a good chance that at least, say, two of those five will be in our side come the pointy end of 2010. Sloane in particular appears to be a round 1 certainty, and all indications are that Cook, Petrenko and Armstrong are very much in consideration for selection. Talia is probably still a year away (and realistically is unlikely to be a mid at AFL level).

Will they give us as much as Goodwin, McLeod and Edwards? Probably not. But - and this is a common misconception - they don't need too. Our current best 22 is not filled with players with little to no improvement left in them. The likes of Dangerfield, Walker, Tippett, Mackay, Moran and in a different sense, Hentschel and Burton can all be expected to give us a lot more than we got in 2009. To a lesser degree, you'd expect the likes of Porplyzia, Vince, Knights, Van Berlo, Maric, Douglas, Reilly etc to continue to take small but consistent steps. At least half of our best 22 is filled with players you can reasonably expect to give more than they gave in 2009, but very few players who you would expect to give less than they did in 2009. If our best 22 didn't change one bit you would expect us to be a better side than we were in 2009 for this very reason. The sum of individual upward momentum outweighs that of individual downward momentum.

Any young kids that then join our best 22 (remembering that the Crows don't play youngsters if they do not warrant selection over another player) become a bonus for the future rather than a detriment to our side in the present. By the time the output of the likes of Goodwin, McLeod and Edwards finally diminishes to the point that they are no longer worthy of their place in the side (and it wouldn't surprise me if one or two of them reach that point in 2010), the gap will have been more than made up for by the current players in the best 22, and the new youngsters can then make their way in the side and hopefully show improvement themselves.

People get too easily caught up in this theory that we have to replace McLeod with another dual Norm Smith medallist or else go backwards as a team when he retires and it's simply not true.

 

[Elite Crow]

The big problem is that all 4 of those players can be deemed as "onballers". Do Adelaide have 4 quality onballers waiting in the wings?

The big problem is you dont know who our onballers are. Edwards would be the only one from our 30+ that consistently plays midfield. The rest have played in defence with the occasional run in the midfield.

 

[getout]

This thread can't be serious?

Where does our upside come from?

Watch some footy from 2009 and get back to me.

 

[Danger32]

I can see Tippet kicking 60+ goals next season, his improvement alone is enough to give crows supporters hope of a top four finish after the promise our youngsters showed us in 09. We will see Taylor Walker playing every week and start to develop some consistant footy. Patty Dangerfield is flying in pre season and is set for a big one. our young brigade is our improvement and our backbone to a successfull season in 2010

 

[Falchoon]

Watch more Crows games and come back to me

can Adelaides best and fairest selectors join him?

 

[Coopers]

So it is those five that you'll be relying on to be the difference between premiership contenders and semi-final also-rans in 2010? Ok.

Well, that's not the question that I was answering, was it?

And from all reports, Cook and Sloane are ready to rock.

Also, the big 4 haven't actually retired! Shocking!

 

[WALL-e]

Problem with the OP is you state did we draft a Rich etc who can come in. No, but the guys we drafted in 08 and 07 have now been versed in our gameplan, have fitness up to Craig standards and SANFL experience.

You'll hear from guys who don't get much BF airplay outside our board.

Cook, McKernan, Sloane, Davis, Petrenko, Martin should all see AFL time this year.

Jacky and Grffin can go into the talent but speculative, but the afc staff seem to love them.

The OP mentioned our young up and commers in Dangerfield, Vince, Porplyzia (not THAT young) and Tippett (must not have noticed MacKay as one of our best in the final loss) and said their upside for next year may be limited. Yeah this is definately true, you won't extract all your upside in one offseason...but,

Dangerfield is finally having his first full pre season (fingers crossed), he'd an absolute bull going for the hard ball and while it was good to watch in the forward line, having that sort of clearance machine, with what should only be a stronger (scary thought) body in the centre of the group....yes please.

Vince, as the OP pointed out, shone brightly last year and had a real break out year, following on his efforts in 08. If you notice the size of Vince, you'll notice that at times it looks like a strong breeze could do him in, he also doesn't have (as of last year) and engine that would allow 95% TOG. These should once again stedily improve, he's core strength is much better going by training photo's and just having a solid year on his back will be good for a guy who thought he'd never make it.

Porps will HOPEFULLY go into the middle where his clean hands will shine, but his endurance will never be fantastic, so he could be a 50/50 forwad mid player. He was also playing with his shoulders injured which, please for the love of god, will have healed.

Tippett if bigger than last season already and like many of our other youngsters, really didn't take kindly to the loss against the Pies. He's become more vocal as a leader, more comfortable witht he contract off his back and every game he plays adds to his short aussie rules life (played less than 50 games before being drafted). A bigger Tippett would be a match up nightmare.

That's a TONE of blowing your own horn there I know, and unfortunately in our game of footy, you can't bank on anything at all. Otten is a major loss as he would have been part of the midfield group this year, but Davis/McKernan/Talia should be ready to take 3rd tall in defense. If that's the only major injury concern we have, then it will be a good year, ......should be a good year

 

[WALL-e]

Agreed, What I can't understand is what the pies head to head record with the crows has anything to do with the upside of the Crows list

Welcome to BF, where insightful discussions turn into "no, your team is ghey, we beat you" in about 3 pages.

 

[WALL-e]

Teams like adelaide get overrated because they have a big home ground advantage against weakish sides.

C'mon mate, get into the 21st century would you.

Those home ground advantages are minor, was our away record last year better than our home? If not, it was bloody close.

There's always a crowd factor, but there's not much in home ground advantage these days.

 

[Asgardian]

Don't try and convince Geelong of that Wally

The Lions and Swans still have good home ground advantages, which I believe will fade as the years roll by with the introduction of Gold Coast and West Sydney.

The Crows and Eagles enjoyed large home ground advantages until the 2nd teams came into being in those states. The introduction of the Dockers and Power meant the other teams had more opportunities to play in those states. In my opinion it's a factor that has led to a decreased home advantage.

Remember the grounds used these days cater for around 50K or more, they are not the small closed in atmospheres that say the Bombers had at Windy Hill, or Port at Alberton. Those maximum crowds were a lot smaller, a lot more feral, a lot more intimidating, in short they gave their team a home ground advantage, something not especially seen in our sterile AFL thesedays.

There's always the exception, that is the Cats, they'll always have that home ground advantage because of their bygone era microcosm.

 

[CROW36]

The hype comes mainly from the media in Adelaide and the great expectations from ther fans.

AT least we weren't expected to be in the top four in the last couple of years and fell like a bucket load of sh** in the bottom 8.

 

[lunacy]

Also lost to Brisbane the 1 time they played each other.
The 2009 record against sides that were there in the 2nd week of the finals, was poor which is a concern.

While the draw may well be favourable they need to beat the sides that will be there when it matters. Certainly a top 4 chance but going further will require some of the younger guys to step up another level.

Yeah but pretty much all our improvement came in the 2nd half of the yeah. Whilst we started to improve against bulldogs and brisbane last year somewhere around rd 7-8 we didnt really start playing good footy to after the Brisbane game. So there's no point going by those early games because we were mediocre at best. Its more the last 2/3 of the season where everyone started to take notice.

 

[lunacy]

Hold on, they did also beat Carlton the week before by 12 goals...

I simply do not understand the posters who argue that if they had have gotten over Collingwood in the Semi, they would have also beaten Geelong and given the Saints a real fright. They got beaten by a Collingwood team who were just going at that stage of the season - it is more likely that they would have had the same treatment at the hands of Geelong that Collingwood received.

Its funny how so many Collingwood supporters are so one eyed. It was played at Collingwood's home ground and the Crows were missing players as well. Bock (our B&F), VB (in leadership group), Moran, Knights got injured after 1st quarter so we were playing with 3 players on bench (1 being a ruckman) on a 30 degree day. Finals are 50/50. I love how Collingwood supporters claim they had no right to win that game. They were behind with 20 secs to go and were lucky that Rutten gave away a free.

You would think they dominated us the way they talk. Typical