AFL 2014 Ladder Predictions

[theflea]

Is that a prediction.

What? I think your getting confused by following a certain game plan to equalling of results.

 

[Powerstufff]

Geez it'd be a tough year if 13 wins got you 10th spot ....

I got through to very late in the 2013 season thinking 12 wins guaranteed you a finals spot. That had nothing to do with the Essendon scenario it was simply that I hadn't factored in 18 teams the league since we were last finals-worthy. So yes you can win half your games or slightly more and still miss out, but it requires the comp to be skewed with a least a couple of teams that lose most games.

 

[Coaster2012]

West Coast don't have a midfield capable of beating the better sides...Kerr is a massive loss.

Kerr barely played in 2013 and when he did he barely got near it, he hasn't been at his best for years. I'm not saying west coast will be top 4, but if they aren't, losing Kerr has nothing to do with it. If anything their midfield is stronger now with Kerr leaving because it allows the new recruit Dom Sheed to come in and Elliot Yeo has come in too. Losing Kerr? Pfft we lost him in 09.

 

[Bigeasy]

Kerr barely played in 2013 and when he did he barely got near it, he hasn't been at his best for years. I'm not saying west coast will be top 4, but if they aren't, losing Kerr has nothing to do with it. If anything there midfield is stronger now with Kerr leaving because it allows the new recruit Dom Sheed to come in and Elliot Yeo has come in to. Losing Kerr? Pfft we lost him in 09

Not trying to be smart arse but finishing 13th and without Kerr for most of the year doesn't really back your argument.

 

[Coaster2012]

Not trying to be smart arse but finishing 13th and without Kerr for most of the year doesn't really back your argument.

Not every dot needs to be connected. I doubt finishing 13th in 2013 had anything to do with missing Kerr. We finished dead last few years ago, guess who was playing that year?

 

[The Goon]

Not every dot needs to be connected. I doubt finishing 13th in 2013 had anything to do with missing Kerr. We finished dead last few years ago, guess who was playing that year?

I suspect you're underrating Kerr's impact on the Eagles midfield. Much like Judd at Carlton his impact on the team's fortunes seems to go beyond his touches, and although slowing when firing can still lift his team. Not that it's the be all and end all mind you, but there's a pretty decent correlation between Kerr playing and the Eagles ladder position over the last 5 years.

Kerr and the Eagles

Y G AvD WC Ladder Position
‘13 10 20 13
’12 24 23 5
’11 16 24 4
’10 4 19 16

‘9 11 19 11

 

[jknothimjustafan]

1. Sydney
2. Hawthorn
3. North
4. Fremantle
5. Collingwood
6. Geelong
7. Essendon
8. Richmond
9. Carlton
10. Adelaide
11. West Coast
12. Gold Coast
13. Port Adelaide
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. Melbourne
17. GWS
18. StK

Sorry Port fans. Will be more focus from other teams and a harsher draw. I see you slipping. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I will be.

While I'm at it though...

Premiership. Sydney

Norm Smith. Kennedy (syd)

Brownlow. Dustin Martin

Coleman. Travis Cloke

Rising Star. Joe Daniher

Bold Prediction. No Coaches sacked in 2014.

 

[RossFC]

1. Fremantle (I reckon will win the flag)
2. Hawthorn (Life after Buddy will still be good, statistically they play better without him)
3. Richmond (Will make the jump up to be a real threat)
4. Sydney (Tippett and Buddy to dominate)
5. Geelong (Still have a great list but not top 4 worthy)
6. Crows (They will be better than last year)
7. North Melbourne (Will win those close games which will shoot them into the top 8)
8. Port Adelaide (More experience but tougher draw, we should scrape in)
9. Gold Coast (Will be knocking on the door for finals. 2015 they will no doubt play finals)
10. Carlton (Still need a decent forward to be a finals threat)
11. Collingwood (Will start to rebuild this year or next)
12. Western Bulldogs (Still rebuilding and developing talent but will get a few upset wins)
13. Essendon (2013 was a year to forget, Belief might be low in the playing group)
14. West Coast (Needs to rebuild list IMO)
15. St Kilda (Honeymoon period for Richo, will win 4-6 games)
16. GWS (3 games and not winning the spoon would be the target)
17. Melbourne (2 wins max, Roos's goal will be to not lose by more than 10 goals each week)
18. Brisbane (A rabble at the moment despite playing attractive footy on the field in 2013)

 

[38Rockliff38]

1. Fremantle (I reckon will win the flag)
2. Hawthorn (Life after Buddy will still be good, statistically they play better without him)
3. Richmond (Will make the jump up to be a real threat)
4. Sydney (Tippett and Buddy to dominate)
5. Geelong (Still have a great list but not top 4 worthy)
6. Crows (They will be better than last year)
7. North Melbourne (Will win those close games which will shoot them into the top 8)
8. Port Adelaide (More experience but tougher draw, we should scrape in)
9. Gold Coast (Will be knocking on the door for finals. 2015 they will no doubt play finals)
10. Carlton (Still need a decent forward to be a finals threat)
11. Collingwood (Will start to rebuild this year or next)
12. Western Bulldogs (Still rebuilding and developing talent but will get a few upset wins)
13. Essendon (2013 was a year to forget, Belief might be low in the playing group)
14. West Coast (Needs to rebuild list IMO)
15. St Kilda (Honeymoon period for Richo, will win 4-6 games)
16. GWS (3 games and not winning the spoon would be the target)
17. Melbourne (2 wins max, Roos's goal will be to not lose by more than 10 goals each week)
18. Brisbane (A rabble at the moment despite playing attractive footy on the field in 2013)

Really? Losing 5 reserves players makes them a "rabble"?

 

[RossFC]

Really? Losing 5 reserves players makes them a "rabble"?

Was talking about the way the club was managed.
And also clearly the 5 players (4 1st round picks in the 2010 and 2011 drafts and an end of round 1 compo pick in 2011) wanting out shows there was a problem. A legend like Simon Black retiring doesn't help either.

But with a new coach/board it will take time to rebuild the culture at the club. A culture that involves good management and your young players wanting to be at the club.

 

[Dan12]

Nah 38Rockliff38 you see we came 12th last year with a crap board and a bunch of sooky reserves players (except for Yeo) with no loyalty. So with a board that can't and won't do worse than them, players that care about the club playing for us and 4-6 more players that will push for best 22, we will surely finish 18th! Isn't this obvious?

 

[RossFC]

Nah 38Rockliff38 you see we came 12th last year with a crap board and a bunch of sooky reserves players (except for Yeo) with no loyalty. So with a board that can't and won't do worse than them, players that care about the club playing for us and 4-6 more players that will push for best 22, we will surely finish 18th! Isn't this obvious?

The majority of people here have Brisbane in the bottom 4.
I just think it will be a rough year for Brisbane.
But hey, some people thought Port would finish bottom in 2013 and Port proved them wrong and came 5th.
West Coast went from bottom to top 4 a few years ago
Brisbane can possibly do the same.

 

[38Rockliff38]

Was talking about the way the club was managed.
And also clearly the 5 players (4 1st round picks in the 2010 and 2011 drafts and an end of round 1 compo pick in 2011) wanting out shows there was a problem. A legend like Simon Black retiring doesn't help either.

But with a new coach/board it will take time to rebuild the culture at the club. A culture that involves good management and your young players wanting to be at the club.

Our board and coaching staff is better than it was. Leigh Matthews is back on the board, and you know what you will get from him. We now also have 2 brownlow medalist assistant coaches (Black, Woewodin). From all reports our new draftees have settled in really well, I don't think any of them will be leaving any time soon

 

[carnthedons]

Our board and coaching staff is better than it was. Leigh Matthews is back on the board, and you know what you will get from him. We now also have 2 brownlow medalist assistant coaches (Black, Woewodin). From all reports our new draftees have settled in really well, I don't think any of them will be leaving any time soon

While that is all true, the only teams I think are more than likely to perform worse than the Lions are StK, Melb & GWS. Being in the bottom four doesn't mean you're shit, just means there are 14 better teams.

 

[38Rockliff38]

The majority of people here have Brisbane in the bottom 4.
I just think it will be a rough year for Brisbane.
But hey, some people thought Port would finish bottom in 2013 and Port proved them wrong and came 5th.
West Coast went from bottom to top 4 a few years ago
Brisbane can possibly do the same.

The majority of people think the club is a mess, but they have no clue about what's really going on. The whole situation has been blown way out of proportion. the players we lost had virtually no affect on us in 2013 and we only missed the finals by a couple of kicks. Our best 22 will be pretty much the same, but with the addition of maybe Aish, West and Mcguane. Our coaching staff,board and best 22 has been upgraded, I don't see why everyone thinks we are in a bad place

 

[RossFC]

Just remember guys it's just a prediction. Who knows what could happen. It's not even the NAB cup yet and even then practice games don't tell us that much.
My opinion will change drastically in 3 months time.

 

[RossFC]

The majority of people think the club is a mess, but they have no clue about what's really going on. The whole situation has been blown way out of proportion. the players we lost had virtually no affect on us in 2013 and we only missed the finals by a couple of kicks. Our best 22 will be pretty much the same, but with the addition of maybe Aish, West and Mcguane. Our coaching staff,board and best 22 has been upgraded, I don't see why everyone thinks we are in a bad place

Leppitsch is an untried coach. Outsiders looking in automatically assume that it will take Brisbane time adapt to different coaching methods.
I had the Bulldogs 18th in the months leading up to the 2013 season for pretty much the same reason.

 

[38Rockliff38]

Leppitsch is an untried coach. Outsiders looking in automatically assume that it will take Brisbane time adapt to different coaching methods.
I had the Bulldogs 18th in the months leading up to the 2013 season for pretty much the same reason.

He's been an assistant for 7 years or something. He changed Richmond's defence from one of the worst in the comp to one of the best. I've got a good feeling about him, won't be surprised if he does a Hinkley in 2014

 

[Dan12]

The majority of people here have Brisbane in the bottom 4.
I just think it will be a rough year for Brisbane.
But hey, some people thought Port would finish bottom in 2013 and Port proved them wrong and came 5th.
West Coast went from bottom to top 4 a few years ago
Brisbane can possibly do the same.

Each to their own, it is a predictions thread of course. I just don't see what gets worse, except for the draw and Elliot Yeo's loss.
The board, the culture and the playing group are better this year than last. If unity was a massive problem it would have affected us last year with some guys with questionable character in the group.
The variables are Leppitsch and the injury curse which is obviously unpredictable. If Leppa is absolutely shite, yeah we could drop below some teams. But I see more pro's than con's for us in 2014.

 

[theflea]

Our board and coaching staff is better than it was. Leigh Matthews is back on the board, and you know what you will get from him. We now also have 2 brownlow medalist assistant coaches (Black, Woewodin). From all reports our new draftees have settled in really well, I don't think any of them will be leaving any time soon

4


This means nothing. Just because they were great players(Black) doesn't necessarily make them good coaches. History is littered with this.

 

[theflea]

He's been an assistant for 7 years or something. He changed Richmond's defence from one of the worst in the comp to one of the best. I've got a good feeling about him, won't be surprised if he does a Hinkley in 2014

No doubt he helped change our defence, but I was with the help of R Smith in the team defence over the last 2 years that got us to 3rd best. Leppa will do well but it will take a while to implement a new game plan. Don't take a prediction thread to heart.

 

[38Rockliff38]

4


This means nothing. Just because they were great players(Black) doesn't necessarily make them good coaches. History is littered with this.

It helps with the young guys. James Aish for example, his idle growing up was Simon Black, and now he's being coached by him. He's said he's loved working closely with Black and hopes to learn a lot off him

 

[Big Sauce 21]

1. Fremantle (I reckon will win the flag)
2. Hawthorn (Life after Buddy will still be good, statistically they play better without him)
3. Richmond (Will make the jump up to be a real threat)
4. Sydney (Tippett and Buddy to dominate)
5. Geelong (Still have a great list but not top 4 worthy)
6. Crows (They will be better than last year)
7. North Melbourne (Will win those close games which will shoot them into the top 8)
8. Port Adelaide (More experience but tougher draw, we should scrape in)
9. Gold Coast (Will be knocking on the door for finals. 2015 they will no doubt play finals)
10. Carlton (Still need a decent forward to be a finals threat)
11. Collingwood (Will start to rebuild this year or next)
12. Western Bulldogs (Still rebuilding and developing talent but will get a few upset wins)
13. Essendon (2013 was a year to forget, Belief might be low in the playing group)
14. West Coast (Needs to rebuild list IMO)
15. St Kilda (Honeymoon period for Richo, will win 4-6 games)
16. GWS (3 games and not winning the spoon would be the target)
17. Melbourne (2 wins max, Roos's goal will be to not lose by more than 10 goals each week)
18. Brisbane (A rabble at the moment despite playing attractive footy on the field in 2013)

This is hilarious. If melbourne target is 2 wins and we are below then we get 0 or 1 win ? Haha

 

[Coaster2012]

I suspect you're underrating Kerr's impact on the Eagles midfield. Much like Judd at Carlton his impact on the team's fortunes seems to go beyond his touches, and although slowing when firing can still lift his team. Not that it's the be all and end all mind you, but there's a pretty decent correlation between Kerr playing and the Eagles ladder position over the last 5 years.

Kerr and the Eagles

Those correlations can also be contributed to larger injury clouds at those times. Last year for example, it was the lack of Nic Nat that was the greatest concern. Not to mention a dozen others

Y G AvD WC Ladder Position
‘13 10 20 13
’12 24 23 5
’11 16 24 4
’10 4 19 16

‘9 11 19 11

 

[Dan12]

How are the Western Bulldogs ahead of so many teams in people's thoughts? Is everyone riding on the high of their triumphs over mid range teams at Etihad? I would have thought there'd be 5-8 players in the Bulldogs' best 22 that wouldn't make the best 22 of Gold Coast, Carlton, Brisbane and West Coast, who seem to be rated lower than them. I think they'll comfortably finish outside the bottom 3 (who could be quite atrocious) but not much higher.