AFL Grand Final AFL 2021 GRAND FINAL - Demons v Dogs Sat September 25th 7:15pm EST / 5:15pm WST (Optus) Congratulations Demons! 🍾🏆 Match Highlights in OP

[Demonic Ascent]

Been trying to find out if there is a pattern from recent years (last 10) as to how ladder position, and road through finals impacts the eventual premier.

I can't, which highlights the nature of our game and how anyone can win on the day.

Most common scenario is 2 top 4 teams winning through to gf undefeated.

Last time an undefeated team from bottom 4 met an undefeated team from top 4, tigers smashed GWS, though no one gave GWS a chance, unlike this year where the dogs are being treated more like a top 4 team by commentators based on overall season form.

Even in the Bulldogs undefeated finals series of 2016, Swans lost week 1 qf and took the long way round to gf day.

The only thing of slight interest I could find is that it's pretty much been a 50/50 split for the cup on the day between the favourite and the underdog in that time.

It's anyone's game at this point!

It's a 50/50 game, I expect the odds to tighten as it gets closer to game day.

 

[mrmonkey]

Finally get 2 Melbourne metro clubs in the GF for the first time in 11 years, and it's played off the MCG.

What's the bet Port or Brisbane make it next season when its back at the MCG?

Imagine if it was West Coast vs Fremantle

 

[Whiskers]

Imagine if it was West Coast vs Fremantle

Won’t happen, but I would like to see it one day. 2015 would’ve been good.

 

[mrmonkey]

Won’t happen, but I would like to see it one day. 2015 would’ve been good.

Obviously not, if it does ever happen it should be at Perth. I can't imagine how huge Perth would be that week.

 

[Stabby McGee]

Been trying to find out if there is a pattern from recent years (last 10) as to how ladder position, and road through finals impacts the eventual premier.

I can't, which highlights the nature of our game and how anyone can win on the day.

Most common scenario is 2 top 4 teams winning through to gf undefeated.

Last time an undefeated team from bottom 4 met an undefeated team from top 4, tigers smashed GWS, though no one gave GWS a chance, unlike this year where the dogs are being treated more like a top 4 team by commentators based on overall season form.

Even in the Bulldogs undefeated finals series of 2016, Swans lost week 1 qf and took the long way round to gf day.

The only thing of slight interest I could find is that it's pretty much been a 50/50 split for the cup on the day between the favourite and the underdog in that time.

It's anyone's game at this point!

There is something in the saying that history doesn’t repeat but it does sometimes rhyme, but we’ve all seen clear favourites lose it and also clear favourites win it.
Id guess that since I’ve been seriously watching footy (1977) I’d guess that it runs not far off 50/50 on favourites getting up or getting nutted.
I’m no stats man, and I’m sure that someone like Ron the Bear could go in depth with it, but to my gut feel I’d be surprised if it was anymore than 55/45 either way.
So long story short it’ll come down to 44 players and two very nervous subs that will decide the game. Not history or omens... that stuff is for the boffins to enjoy after the fact.
Although...
Footscray is 100% against teams that have the name of a capital city (not a fan of this one)
The last time Footscray beat us in a grand final we won 5 of the next 6 (that one I love)
Probably my favourite is that the last time we met in Perth... well that’s nil all until next week

 

[Heaps of fun]

Today's the big day.

 

[juss]

The hardest things to predict are those we haven't seen before. Melbourne since 29th August will meet the Dogs on the 25th September having played 1 game of football, compared to the Dogs 3, with a rest before next week.

We've not seen that before but I think that preparation favours the Dogs.

 

[Bluelegs]

Last time Josh Dunkley played Melbourne in a full length game:
39 Disposals
24 Contested
15 Tackles
6 Marks
2 Goals

Would be nice if he could find that form again.

Was this in 2019?

 

[ep2018]

Won’t happen, but I would like to see it one day. 2015 would’ve been good.

We weren't mentally prepared for the big dance, and freo were banged up pretty badly (Fyfe broken leg, Pav tore his calf up in the prelim the week before).

The game would have been a complete shitshow.

 

[Xtreme]

1 more week

WA pinched our grand final

But lets get pumped for it!

 

[Outback Footy]

Learn the English language

Thats the best you can do? Youre not even trying anymore. Sad.

 

[demondavey]

We weren't mentally prepared for the big dance, and freo were banged up pretty badly (Fyfe broken leg, Pav tore his calf up in the prelim the week before).

The game would have been a complete shitshow.

Who’d have won? Eagles I reckon due to injuries to Fremantle

 

[Tulip]

Read this thread hoping to get some sense of the build up.

Lol.

Even the mods from different club boards are coming up with stuff the usual suspects would be ashamed of.

Pretty shit advertisement for this site.

 

[JXB]

Its good youre not suggesting Oscar blocking Timmeee wasnt a free kick, it is of course every day, and its payed every game of the year, its as much a free kick as 2 hands in the back. You think it was soft, but still there? So it needed to be payed. And it was. So whats ur issue? We scored? We won? You have to face us next saturday? Get over it. Umpires had nothing to do with it.

My point about the Briz game is still relevant, we played the game of the season, showwed enormous resilience and hunger to win it, after a tough first half the week before and came out last week on top of our game, weve got a week off to come out fresh. Your blokes by contrast have had 2 easy games in a month, not ideal preparation. My post was in response to the dees fan saying both teams have had an easy run into the granny, mmmmmmmmm, nice try.

So you had a really "tough" lead up to the Brisbane Game by beating the worst team in the finals by 49 points and getting through the game without any injuries
In comparison, Brisbane played us, where they lost convincingly, and had one of their key structural players in Mcstay getting injured.
You definitely had the better lead into that game and you still only managed to scrape by with a 1 point win
Melbourne on the other hand beat Brisbane by 33 points while also kicking 15 points so probably would have been a 50-60 point win if we kicked accurately
Quite the difference between the two teams against Brisbane

On the point of both teams having an easy run into the granny. The Doggies have only played 1 more game than the Dees in the past month but that should be obsolete considering both teams will have a 2-week break in preparation for the granny. No team has an advantage in terms of the lead-in

 

[JXB]

I find Bevo's 'Us against the world' storyline that he has Built very amusing

Have the Doggies had a tough finals Series: Pretty Debatable
Have the Doggies traveled a lot: Yes
Have the Doggies had to play 1 more game than the Dees: Yes
Where the Doggies not allowed to train: Yes

All of these would spell a pretty hard-done finals series but what we all seem to forget is that they got themselves into this scenario by losing the last 3 games of the Home and Away season. All they had to do was win against the Hawks and Dons, and they are, all of a sudden, top 2 and don't have to go through any of this hardship

 

[JXB]

Oh look, a bandwagoner

Key difference in our respective Brisbane games ... Melbourne didn't play them in Brisbane and McStay was injured during your game which threw them right off in that game. Everyone knows Brisbane is garbage everywhere but home.

Can't wait for all the excuses if Melbourne loses this. The umpiring excuse has already been fired up early

Ah yes, someone who is assuming that I am a bandwagoner because of my measly 47 Posts.
Could I have been following the club for 15 years and just joined this site a couple of months ago? Oh, that can't be true

So onto your 'key differences'

The game we played against Brisbane was played at a neutral venue in front of a roughly even crowd. So not much of a difference

Yes, Mcstay did get injured. But did you forget that Brisbane had 1 less on their bench for the second half against the Doggies?
"While Brisbane played the final two quarters a man down after Jack Payne (head gash) and Jarrod Berry (concussion) were both ruled out."
I'd argue that having both a Key Defender and Important Midfielder/Forward injured is worse than having a Key forward injured

Brisbane also aren't 'garbage' away from home with a 6-5 record with 4 of the 5 losses against top 8 teams

I also didn't even mention the umpires and I for one don't think the umpires will have an influence on the game. The Best team will win and if we happen to lose I will be fine with it as it most likely means that the Doggies played better

 

[Doggy]

Ah yes, someone who is assuming that I am a bandwagoner because of my measly 47 Posts.
Could I have been following the club for 15 years and just joined this site a couple of months ago. Oh, that can't be true

So onto your 'key differences'

The game we played against Brisbane was played at a neutral venue in front of a roughly even crowd. So not much of a difference

Yes, Mcstay did get injured. But did you forget that Brisbane had 1 less on their bench for the second half against the Doggies?
"While Brisbane played the final two quarters a man down after Jack Payne (head gash) and Jarrod Berry (concussion) were both ruled out."
I'd argue that having both a Key Defender and Important Midfielder/Forward injured is worse than having a Key forward injured

Brisbane also aren't 'garbage' away from home with a 6-5 record with 4 of the 5 losses against top 8 teams

I also didn't even mention the umpires and I for one don't think the umpires will have an influence on the game. The Best team will win and if we happen to lose I will be fine with it as it most likely means that the Doggies played better

Yes, they are rubbish away from home.

Case in point. They haven't won at the MCG in years. While looking sub par in many away games this year.

We also lost Weightman during that game. Didn't want to mention the loss of our best small forward? When already down our best Key forward it's hard to cover but guess that doesn't suit your narrative

 

[JXB]

Yes, they are rubbish away from home.

Case in point. They haven't won at the MCG in years. While looking sub par in many away games this year.

We also lost Weightman during that game. Didn't want to mention the loss of our best small forward? When already down our best Key forward it's hard to cover but guess that doesn't suit your narrative

Actually, it does suit my Narrative so thanks.
Now we won by 33 (with 13 more scoring shots than Brisbane) and you won by 1 (with 1 More scoring shot than Brisbane)
Are Weightman and Bruce going to offer up 12 more scoring shots? if they are you'd certainly hope they were in the All Australian Team
But they aren't and they certainly aren't offering up 12 more scoring shots if they were playing

We played the same team a week apart and played better. Pretty Simple

On your away from home point. They were far from the worst away from home, evident by their Winning record (thought I'd mention it because you obviously missed it in my last post). Your point on their record at the MCG is correct, they haven't won there in 7 years. But where did we play them? at the MCG? Crap did I miss going to a Qualifying final at the MCG? Dammit

 

[Doggy]

Actually, it does suit my Narrative so thanks.
Now we won by 33 (with 13 more scoring shots than Brisbane) and you won by 1 (with 1 More scoring shot than Brisbane
are Weightman and Bruce going to offer up 12 more scoring shots? if they are you'd certainly hope they were in the All Australian Team
But they aren't and they certainly arent offering up 12 more scoring shots

We played the same team a week apart and played better. Pretty Simple

On your away from home point. They were far from the worst away from home, evident by their Winning record (thought I'd mention it because you obviously missed it in my last post). Your point on their record at the MCG is correct, they haven't won there in 7 years. But where did we play them? at the MCG? Crap did I miss going to a Qualifying final at the MCG? Dammit

Haha, they're rubbish away from home. It's a known fact.

Whatever helps you sleep at night though sunshine.

You keep banging on comparing our respective games against Brisbane.

Suggest you read a post from your fellow supporter earlier that said people will try to compare them but the conditions under both were not the same so it's stupid to. In fact, it is lazy to

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Look if you had have said Spargo I would have said "touche" but you've missed the target with that one unfortunately.

No Oliver is the worse player that flops when he just anticipates contact.

 

[JXB]

Haha, they're rubbish away from home. It's a known fact.

Whatever helps you sleep at night though sunshine.

You keep banging on comparing our respective games against Brisbane.

Suggest you read a post from your fellow supporter earlier that said people will try to compare them but the conditions under both were not the same so it's stupid to. In fact, it is lazy to

Ah yes. It is Lazy to compare games that were played less than a month ago in similar conditions

The reason I am comparing them is that they are the last two legitimate games that the two clubs have played because I think we can both agree that the prelims were nothing more than a training drill for both teams (No Offence intended to Geelong and Port supporters, Just how it is)

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

The likely team sheet says Melbourne should win - I don't think many will dispute that they have the edge on paper due to players like May and Gawn. However the Bulldogs have absolutely played out of their skins this finals series. They have well exceeded their already-high expectations and are in red-hot form at just the right time.

Could it be that the Bulldogs will play like they've got nothing to lose, while the Demons are troubled by the weight of expectation?

Put it this way: if the Bulldogs' midfield has a better day than Melbourne's, and Bailey Smith has a good day, then they win.

It's been years since we've seen a clash of two absolutely stacked midfields on grand final day. Should be a belter.

Sorry, dont see how on paper they should win because of Gawn and May.

 

[Doggy]

Ah yes. It is Lazy to compare games that were played less than a month ago in similar conditions

The reason I am comparing them is that they are the last two legitimate games that the two clubs have played because I think we can both agree that the prelims were nothing more than a training drill for both teams (No Offence intended to Geelong and Port supporters, Just how it is)

Yeah, no. The conditions were not the same. As I said, one of your fellow supporters expressly pointed that out.

I can't name a decent side Brisbane beat away from home. I'm assuming here you mention Fremantle but that would be amusing, as you would say. They are an entirely different side at home.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Was this in 2019?

Yeah when he played against his brother i think.

 

[JXB]

Yeah, no. The conditions were not the same. As I said, one of your fellow supporters expressly pointed that out.

I can't name a decent side Brisbane beat away from home. I'm assuming here you mention Fremantle but that would be amusing, as you would say. They are an entirely different side at home.

They were both played on a Football Field with 22 players on each team and umpires on the field (Insert Bulldogs Umpires joke here). Also, since when did this 'fellow supporter' speak for myself and the whole Melbourne Fan base.
I guess we will agree to disagree on this conditions point

Now onto the away from home argument. To make you happy I will agree with you that Brisbane is a worse(Not Garbage) team away from Home in comparison to when they are playing at home. However, our game against them was played at a neutral venue. Not a home game for us