AFL Futures 2012

[half_back_flank]

I remembered that bet because it was so ridiculous.

You want everyone to post in units, yet you have no idea about the concept. A unit should generally equal 1% of your bankroll (although not always), you are nowhere near that unless you put 20% of your bankroll on a 2/1 prospect (unlikely even for you). It's just as subjective as posting dollar amounts.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

my unit bets have a frame of reference that i outlined at the start of the year

we don't know what 20u means to you any more than we know what $5000 means to someone else

That may be so, however if someone new comes to the forum or takes a glance at the forum from time to time, they would have no idea what your frame of reference is?

To be honest I had no idea you had a frame of reference.!?

When I see you place a bet of 0.5 U I assume its a low confidence bet.

Similarly when I see you place a 3u bet I think you are very confident.

I dont want or hope not that people dont tail me at all lol.

I wont be posting any bets in here in the future. In fact I have often come in these forums talking about my losing bets and I am almost 100% I have done that a lot in the past. I learn more from my losses than my wins.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

I remembered that bet because it was so ridiculous.

You want everyone to post in units, yet you have no idea about the concept. A unit should generally equal 1% of your bankroll (although not always), you are nowhere near that unless you put 20% of your bankroll on a 2/1 prospect (unlikely even for you). It's just as subjective as posting dollar amounts.

You see thats the problems with posting bets in here, cheap shots. All I did was post a bet. I didnt go on and say it would win etc.

Just for a heads up it was exactly 2% of my bank.

It wasnt my only bet of the weekend though.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

Could we just talk about the games this weekend?

 

[Lensen]

so a 2% of your bank bet is described as a 20u bet

I would describe the same bet as a 2u bet

can you not see how unless it's on an agreed frame of reference then there is no difference between units & bets?

 

[eastcoastcrow]

so a 2% of your bank bet is described as a 20u bet

I would describe the same bet as a 2u bet

can you not see how unless it's on an agreed frame of reference then there is no difference between units & bets?

lol, I just wont post my bets in here as most do, problem solved. Actually I dont care if people say they place $10k on a bet nor if they bet 1U.

Nor will I sit back wait for the bet to fail and take cheap shots.

You have placed a lot of bets in here that have failed but I havent taken cheap shots at it.

Some people will now your confidence levels in a bet and some wont? thats a fact whether you realise it or not.

Not everyone knows that you have posted your confidence in your bets at the start of the year.

Could we just talk about the games now?

 

[Burgundy]

Could we just talk about the games this weekend?

lol no we cant, if you want to make a big deal out of units then we can finish it and show you how wrong you are

 

[Burgundy]

lol, I just wont post my bets in here as most do, problem solved. Actually I dont care if people say they place $10k on a bet nor if they bet 1U.

Nor will I sit back wait for the bet to fail and take cheap shots.

You have placed a lot of bets in here that have failed but I havent taken cheap shots at it.

Some people will now your confidence levels in a bet and some wont? thats a fact whether you realise it or not.

Not everyone knows that you have posted your confidence in your bets at the start of the year.

Could we just talk about the games now?

Same as if you follow a poster who posts dollar amounts

 

[eastcoastcrow]

lol no we cant, if you want to make a big deal out of units then we can finish it and show you how wrong you are

Im not wrong. You wont convinced me otherwise. I just wont post bets in here thats all.

But Im happy to talk about the game.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

Same as if you follow a poster who posts dollar amounts

Unless you know every bet that person has placed for the weekend. Tailing someone is a pointless exercise.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

lol.

Ok you guys win, I wont post in here anymore!

Just talk about the games and I will be happy!

 

[Donkson]

Im not wrong..

you are wrong, your ignorance isn't anyone else's problem.

suggesting that some arbitrary number has any more significance than a dollar amount is lol.

 

[Lensen]

lol, I just wont post my bets in here as most do, problem solved. Actually I dont care if people say they place $10k on a bet nor if they bet 1U.

Nor will I sit back wait for the bet to fail and take cheap shots.

You have placed a lot of bets in here that have failed but I havent taken cheap shots at it.

Some people will now your confidence levels in a bet and some wont? thats a fact whether you realise it or not.

Not everyone knows that you have posted your confidence in your bets at the start of the year.

Could we just talk about the games now?

i don't give two shits whether your bets win or lose, and haven;t made a cheap shot. I just like to argue the point and your dogged insistence that you are right long after its clear you aren't is fun

 

[Burgundy]

Unless you know every bet that person has placed for the weekend. Tailing someone is a pointless exercise.

Thats cool mate, pity it has nothing to do with the conversation

 

[Burgundy]

Im not wrong. You wont convinced me otherwise. I just wont post bets in here thats all.

But Im happy to talk about the game.

lol

You are wrong, keep living in your world where you are always right though

 

[Athomas]

Im not wrong. You wont convinced me otherwise. I just wont post bets in here thats all.

But Im happy to talk about the game.

you are wrong, your ignorance isn't anyone else's problem.

suggesting that some arbitrary number has any more significance than a dollar amount is lol.

This.

On topic. I've taken Carlton to make finals at $13. Perhaps biased but I see us smashing Lions + Suns (helps with %), beating Essendon comfortably (20-40 points) and then getting over the line against Saints (although this is really a 50/50 game). 52 points and ~115% is where I am pretty sure we will end up. Will that be enough? Good chance that 1 of North/Freo/WCE slip up and fall under that (obviously I have the Bombers and Saints out of the 8 as well)

 

[eastcoastcrow]

This.

On topic. I've taken Carlton to make finals at $13. Perhaps biased but I see us smashing Lions + Suns (helps with %), beating Essendon comfortably (20-40 points) and then getting over the line against Saints (although this is really a 50/50 game). 52 points and ~115% is where I am pretty sure we will end up. Will that be enough? Good chance that 1 of North/Freo/WCE slip up and fall under that (obviously I have the Bombers and Saints out of the 8 as well)

The best tool I have used to predicting ladder positions is on the AFL site I think its called Baileys Ladder predictor I am about at 80% tipping accuracy, but I do not have the Blues in the finals. With that said though there is a lot of 50-50 games left in the year so your right they could go either way. I may have another stab at it. If a few things go right even the Cats can still make the Top4 paying $8.

 

[KardiniaPark]

The best tool I have used to predicting ladder positions is on the AFL site I think its called Baileys Ladder predictor I am about at 80% tipping accuracy, but I do not have the Blues in the finals. With that said though there is a lot of 50-50 games left in the year so your right they could go either way. I may have another stab at it. If a few things go right even the Cats can still make the Top4 paying $8.

80% - So your tipping comp at work sees you on around 130 at the moment.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

80% - So your tipping comp at work sees you on around 130 at the moment.

lol I wish !

At 127.

 

[Duritz]

This.

On topic. I've taken Carlton to make finals at $13. Perhaps biased but I see us smashing Lions + Suns (helps with %), beating Essendon comfortably (20-40 points) and then getting over the line against Saints (although this is really a 50/50 game). 52 points and ~115% is where I am pretty sure we will end up. Will that be enough? Good chance that 1 of North/Freo/WCE slip up and fall under that (obviously I have the Bombers and Saints out of the 8 as well)

I agree that $13 is a good price for you guys to make the finals. I personally think you're about a $9 chance.

 

[Manila_Playa87]

This.

On topic. I've taken Carlton to make finals at $13. Perhaps biased but I see us smashing Lions + Suns (helps with %), beating Essendon comfortably (20-40 points) and then getting over the line against Saints (although this is really a 50/50 game). 52 points and ~115% is where I am pretty sure we will end up. Will that be enough? Good chance that 1 of North/Freo/WCE slip up and fall under that (obviously I have the Bombers and Saints out of the 8 as well)

Will belt lions and Suns but gotta but in an inconsistent and injury riddled team gotta allow for one letdown in either the bombers or saints game so i think they'll narrowly miss but they are a lot better than a 9th or 10th team. It's just been a rotten year

 

[Manila_Playa87]

1u = 1 percent of your account. That's how i've interpreted it

 

[Athomas]

Will belt lions and Suns but gotta but in an inconsistent and injury riddled team gotta allow for one letdown in either the bombers or saints game so i think they'll narrowly miss but they are a lot better than a 9th or 10th team. It's just been a rotten year

I think the letdown game could be Saint Kilda, but if they can have 3 great games then they will only be ~$2-4 to make the 8 come that final round imo.

Got Carrazzo back 4 weeks ago, Murphy 3, Waite, White and Simpson last week, Robbo and Walker this week, Judd next week. That's arguably our 6 best players. Time will tell anyway.

 

[KP78]

I have inputted multiple possibilities into the ladder predictor and I just cannot see any reasonable chance that Geelong make the Top 4 of that Carlton make the Top 8. It would really take some huge upset and for everything to fall into place.

It is a real possibility this year that the team that finishes 9th will have 13 wins, that is pretty tough luck.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

I have inputted multiple possibilities into the ladder predictor and I just cannot see any reasonable chance that Geelong make the Top 4 of that Carlton make the Top 8. It would really take some huge upset and for everything to fall into place.

It is a real possibility this year that the team that finishes 9th will have 13 wins, that is pretty tough luck.

I did it again and this is how it pans out.

The obvious being the Cats winning every game. The Pies dropping games against the Eagles and Dons and Swans which would lead to a small drop in percentage - any hammering against the Pies, helps the Cats.

The Cats need to smash the Bullies by 100 points. ~ 15 goals.
The bigger the losses the Pies have against Swans/Dons/Eagles will help reduce the margin that the Cats need to win by in their game against the the Bullies. Ideally a 10 goal win would be the best case scenario for them.

Your right it requires a lot of things to fall their way, but realistically it isnt as far fetched as it would appear.

Eagles and Dons beating the Pies helps the former with a home final and the latter getting into the final.