oh aldi
i would love to know your "on paper" ladder
North draw is actually pretty hard afterwards if i remember correctly
i would love to know your "on paper" ladder
North draw is actually pretty hard afterwards if i remember correctly
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Rd 14 Reviews + Club boards »
BL v StK · WB v FRE · RIC v HAW · ADE v SYD · NM v COL · GWS v PA ·
Read the wrap-up and post your "Liked, Learned, Hated" right here.
AFL Futures
- Thread starter adii_7
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Anyone keen on doing an up to date table for leading goal kickers per club?
that is an incredibly long time to wait for $150
you could have got a risk free $45-$50 immediately
you could have got a risk free $45-$50 immediately
AFL FINAL 8 Future;
Freo 3.25 to make 8 - TAB.
Thoughts?
I normally wouldnt wan't to toch Freo but this seems overs compaired to other bookies.
Guess Saints, Tiges and Dockers will be fighting for that last spot!
Freo 3.25 to make 8 - TAB.
Thoughts?
I normally wouldnt wan't to toch Freo but this seems overs compaired to other bookies.
Guess Saints, Tiges and Dockers will be fighting for that last spot!
Nothing
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 30, 2009
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I think it as play at how quickly they can get fit. Nothing this year indicates that it will be quickly. Having said that, I like Freo (and SYD) as the highest placed interstate team. Currently WC are $1.40 which seeing as there are only 2 premiership points separating the 3 teams (with SYD in front!) I think is way too short. Things can change quickly and the odds are changing accordingly. There has been the chance to back all 3 at over $3.50 in the last 4 weeks.
I will be getting on in 2 weeks time (I think they will lose this week and next.
http://www.afl.com.au/tabid/208/default.aspx?newsid=115310
Boyd/Pendles/Murphy good odds for most dt points still. For now....
Boyd/Pendles/Murphy good odds for most dt points still. For now....
On current form i'd be backing Eagles from that group. But as you say things change so quickly and Sydney just seem to be able to etch out wins from impossible positions.
Good point re: waiting on the Freo bet. Can't seem them challenging the Hawks but can see them having a real crack back at home against the Dons. Will assess odds after this round.
Agreed, they will lose to the hawks so odds will be even better after this round
Nothing
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 30, 2009
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I may be a little biased (though in betting I try not to be) but Eagles thus far have had a dream run. They have played more home games and won those games easily (excepting Sydney). Away they lost to all but Port who are atrocious. They have failed every test (HAW, ESS, SYD, COL) and beaten the teams they should (NM, PA, MEL, WB and FREO). They have an easy 3 weeks coming up, but after that they could lose every game (I know they wont but you could build a reasonable argument for each game). I am willing to fade WC, though the time is in 3 weeks.
Its still very good odds for Freo, they are currently in the 8 and the only team I think that can knock them out is St.Kilda who are currently 6 poinst behind them, think Hawthorn will beat them this week but after that they have Essendon (H) Melbourne (A) Brisbane (H) and Gold Coast (H) so I will be jumping on them after this week
Again, based on the news Swan is set to miss the R12 match.
Most Disposals - Most Disposals
BOYD, M (WBD) 2.40 - 286
SWAN, D (COLL) 3.00 - 270
PENDLEBURY, S (COLL) 7.00 - 255
THOMPSON, S (ADEL) 7.00 - 262
MURPHY, M (CAR) 9.00 - 260
Thompson highlighted because the game he got injured early in the third he would have probably had another 10-15 possesions. Had 36 last week to Boyd's 26.
Surely with Swan out of the picture, you are almost getting $2.40 odds that Boyd will play every game this year.
Most Disposals - Most Disposals
BOYD, M (WBD) 2.40 - 286
SWAN, D (COLL) 3.00 - 270
PENDLEBURY, S (COLL) 7.00 - 255
THOMPSON, S (ADEL) 7.00 - 262
MURPHY, M (CAR) 9.00 - 260
Thompson highlighted because the game he got injured early in the third he would have probably had another 10-15 possesions. Had 36 last week to Boyd's 26.
Surely with Swan out of the picture, you are almost getting $2.40 odds that Boyd will play every game this year.
- Thread starter
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to everyone bagging me about my comment about melbourne being a top 4 side, they have a gun side.. Scully, Trengove, Jurrah... all the key components to becoming a super team in the next year or two.
can see them making the 8 this year.
can see them making the 8 this year.
It rubs the lotion on its skin or it gets the hose again.
Dr Awkward
Norm Smith Medallist
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Nobody is doubting that they might become a top 4 side soon but when you say "they are a top 4 side on paper" that means you are referring to now.
Very happy I got on Gia last week at $11. Grant will probably get dropped as well this week and who knows when and if Hall will be back. Gia's 5 goal put some distance between him and the pack
I'm going to wait and see if there is any more news on Hall before I put more on it. At the $11 I figured it was way overs so worth the shot
Just wanted to know some thoughts on the futures markets for the AFL. I did a ladder predicator and surprisingly the only real discrepancy seems to be with the Eagles. I have them finishing in 11th and one game short of finals football. I did not worry about margins when doing this, but for this purpose it does not quite matter as I was looking for big differences in TAB markets verse a rough predictor.
Eagles are $4.25 to miss finals. Seems tremendous value or have I just underestimated them...
I have Fremantle and the Bulldogs(ugh I know) battling out the last spot both showing $2.85 each. Id be leaning towards Freo somehow..
Swans to be the non-top VIC team on my ladder is a overwhelming favourite over the TAB's market of West Coast so $1.85 looks hugeeee value at around 3 games clear of nearest opponent.
Wooden Spoon market looks right. Have GC one game at the bottom clear of Port with a gap to the rest and the market at $1.55 and $3.50 is agreeable with that.
I have probably been a little bias towards Essendon as I follow them, but I do have them finishing 5th, one game behind Carlton and with Carlton showing $1.30 for Top 4 and Essendon showing $9.00..yikes...
Now..The over under on the win games looks intriguing...
Geelong over 19.5 at $1.60 looks a near lock. I have them on 21wins. Would need 2 severe upsets to hurt the apple cart.
West Coast under 12.5 games at $2.20 represents value for me if I stick to my predicator as they will fall under that even If I am out 2 games, which I might be.
Collingwood over 18.5 at $1.40 seems ridiculous odds too since I have them equal top on 21 wins with Geelong. Seems 2 very good anchors in multis(if TAB allows that)
I only have North getting 6 wins so under 8.5 at $1.75 is sexy too.
The only other value I see is in the over-rated Tigers. I have them finishing on a pultry 5 wins and with the equal line set at 8.5 games Id need to be out a whopping 4 games there...
Eagles are $4.25 to miss finals. Seems tremendous value or have I just underestimated them...
I have Fremantle and the Bulldogs(ugh I know) battling out the last spot both showing $2.85 each. Id be leaning towards Freo somehow..
Swans to be the non-top VIC team on my ladder is a overwhelming favourite over the TAB's market of West Coast so $1.85 looks hugeeee value at around 3 games clear of nearest opponent.
Wooden Spoon market looks right. Have GC one game at the bottom clear of Port with a gap to the rest and the market at $1.55 and $3.50 is agreeable with that.
I have probably been a little bias towards Essendon as I follow them, but I do have them finishing 5th, one game behind Carlton and with Carlton showing $1.30 for Top 4 and Essendon showing $9.00..yikes...
Now..The over under on the win games looks intriguing...
Geelong over 19.5 at $1.60 looks a near lock. I have them on 21wins. Would need 2 severe upsets to hurt the apple cart.
West Coast under 12.5 games at $2.20 represents value for me if I stick to my predicator as they will fall under that even If I am out 2 games, which I might be.
Collingwood over 18.5 at $1.40 seems ridiculous odds too since I have them equal top on 21 wins with Geelong. Seems 2 very good anchors in multis(if TAB allows that)
I only have North getting 6 wins so under 8.5 at $1.75 is sexy too.
The only other value I see is in the over-rated Tigers. I have them finishing on a pultry 5 wins and with the equal line set at 8.5 games Id need to be out a whopping 4 games there...
Adelaide vs West Coast
WC vs Port
Freo vs WC
Dogs vs WC
WC vs Rich
WC vs Ess
Bris vs WC
WC vs Adelaide
How on Earth do you have them only winning 4 of those games??????
Bolded ones are absolute montys and they are better than a 50/50 chance in at least 3 of the others.
WC vs Port
Freo vs WC
Dogs vs WC
WC vs Rich
WC vs Ess
Bris vs WC
WC vs Adelaide
How on Earth do you have them only winning 4 of those games??????
Bolded ones are absolute montys and they are better than a 50/50 chance in at least 3 of the others.
Nothing
Norm Smith Medallist
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I have said previously that i think WC for highest placed interstate team is way too short. the last time I did my calculator I had them missing the 8. Since then they haven't done had any surprise wins.
Adelaide away (on current form should be an easy win though I feel that Adelaide will get up)
Port at home (to lose would need to forget what day they play)
Carlton away (loss)
Geelong home (loss)
Saints away (loss)
Fremantle away (loss - Freo back approaching full strength
)Dogs away (loss - the prssure comes on to the team 6 weeks without a win)
Richmond home (should win but Richmond are improving this year)
Melbourne away (similar to Richmond if Melbourne have their best team on the park they can win)
Essendon home (if they haven't beaten Richmond or Melbourne could struggle)
Brisbane away (much different proposition at the Gabba)
Adelaide home (should win comfortably)
Now I don't think they will lose all those games in a row but if the pressure comes on and they get some untimely injuries they could struggle. I'm not prepared to back them to miss the 8 but can see it happening.
I think Freo miss too unless they can get on a run. For them the last 4 weeks will prove costly come August. Having said that at $9 I think Freo are over the odds for highest placed non-vic team considering there is only two games in it.
If you feel the game is 50-50 then you should be giving WC 1 win every 2 games. If Adelaide, St Kilda, Fremantle, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Melbourne and Essendon games are 50-50 then they should win 3.5 of them. Add that to the 6 wins and that gives them 9.5 along with the Port, Adelaide and Richmond probable wins puts them on 12.5.I have said previously that i think WC for highest placed interstate team is way too short. the last time I did my calculator I had them missing the 8. Since then they haven't done had any surprise wins.
Adelaide away (on current form should be an easy win though I feel that Adelaide will get up)
Port at home (to lose would need to forget what day they play)
Carlton away (loss)
Geelong home (loss)
Saints away (loss)
Fremantle away (loss - Freo back approaching full strength
Dogs away (loss - the prssure comes on to the team 6 weeks without a win)
Richmond home (should win but Richmond are improving this year)
Melbourne away (similar to Richmond if Melbourne have their best team on the park they can win)
Essendon home (if they haven't beaten Richmond or Melbourne could struggle)
Brisbane away (much different proposition at the Gabba)
Adelaide home (should win comfortably)
Now I don't think they will lose all those games in a row but if the pressure comes on and they get some untimely injuries they could struggle. I'm not prepared to back them to miss the 8 but can see it happening.
I think Freo miss too unless they can get on a run. For them the last 4 weeks will prove costly come August. Having said that at $9 I think Freo are over the odds for highest placed non-vic team considering there is only two games in it.
