finders
Norm Smith Medallist
Lokks like all the other rats are giving up as well! Over to you Mrs bucket.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com...heaustralian/comments/pass_baton_to_costello/
PASS THE BATON TO COSTELLO!
Janet Albrechtsen Blog | September 06, 2007 |
The Howard factor made it cool to be conservative and delivered success; now it presages defeat
THIS is one of the hardest columns I will write. John Howard has been the finest prime minister Australia has had. He has overseen extraordinary economic success, created the conditions for a whole new class of aspirational Australians to prosper from the inevitable forces of globalisation, confronted the scourge of terrorism and has fundamentally realigned the political landscape in this country on so many fronts.
Under Howard it became cool to be a conservative. He rebuilt a political philosophy of individual responsibility for a new generation. His legacy is profound. From workplace reform to welfare to indigenous politics, to our sense of national identity, Howard has changed the nation in a way very few leaders ever do. Each step rankled his opponents as they clung to old orthodoxies. Yet Howard, through sheer dint of character and intellectual fortitude, prevailed.
But now he must go.
It’s not easy saying that. The economic numbers certainly do not warrant it. All the numbers are in the right direction. Unemployment at historic lows.
Economic growth at healthy highs. Neither does Howard’s character warrant it. He has been a leader in the true sense of the word. He has tapped into what the community thinks in a way his predecessor Paul Keating never did. He has overseen a period of unity within the federal Liberal Party that has enabled the Howard Government to win election after election. Every time he was written off, Howard fought back. But after 11 glorious years, this time the bad polls are pointing to something altogether different.
Complacency in the electorate accounts for some of it. An entire generation has experienced nothing except economic prosperity. Even when other economies faltered, Australia remained stable. Kevin Rudd is also a key to what is happening. Not his policies, for few differ dramatically from Howard. But he has played the politics right. His has been a tight game, feeding on that complacency, deliberately echoing Howard in the knowledge that the Australian electorate is inherently conservative.
To shift an electorate while the economy is booming, Rudd has provided a credible alternative: a steady hand on the tiller but a fresh face.
But something else is happening. It may not be rational. It may not be fair. It’s not about Howard’s age. He is fit, capable and, like that Energizer bunny, he could stay on to fight another fight. But voters appear to have turned off Howard. They appear to have stopped listening. Each new initiative that was meant to deliver a electoral bounce has failed to do so.
The Howard factor is there. Where once it meant success, now it presages defeat. A defeat that perhaps can only be avoided if Howard steps aside. What makes it so depressing is that so many conservatives and senior Liberals remain in denial.
The last rabbit Howard should pull out of the hat is Peter Costello.
Those who doubt if such a change (from Howard to Costello) would have much of an impact should reflect on recent events in Britain.
Tony Blair, like John Howard, was one of the most successful election winning machines in his party’s history. But after seeing off a succession of lacklustre Opposition leaders, Blair suddenly began to show his age when facing the latest Tory hopeful David Cameron.
A poll in February put Cameron 11 points up, enough to give his party a 100-seat majority in parliament. Up against a prime minister who had been around for far too long, the Conservatives were recording their highest support for 15 years.
Then, in June, everything changed. Gordon Brown, like Costello, the longstanding heir apparent and finance minister, finally took over the leadership. The result: an immediate poll boost for Labour.
Just a fortnight on, Labour recorded its biggest lead over the Conservatives since Cameron had become leader more than 18 months earlier.
The Government’s lead rose to 10 points a month later. Brown embarked on no new major shifts in policy: ``New’’ Labour hadn’t reverted to ``Old’’ Labour overnight. No, the Government got a boost merely because there was a new face at the top.
After 10 years, the British public had simply grown tired of Tony Blair.
Switching from Blair to Brown will probably be enough to guarantee that Labour’s record-breaking period of office is continued.
And in the same way, the coronation of Australia’s longstanding heir apparent could represent the best chance the Coalition has of staying in power, too.
The appeal of a young and fresh Costello could change the media narrative and work wonders for a tiring Government that is seen as out of touch.
He can commit to the future in a way that Howard cannot. Costello as future prime minister will force voters to take a second, more careful look at the Liberal Party instead of choosing between the new Rudd and the old Howard. The nay-sayers will point to Costello’s poor personal polling as alternative prime minister, to his perceived arrogance and petulance.
Yet Rudd was no obvious leader on that score. Once elected leader he rose to the occasion, changing the political dynamic in a way few imagined. To dismiss that Costello can do the same is to concede defeat.
Howard has crafted his continuing leadership on a simple equation. He will remain as Prime Minister as long as the party wants him and so long as it is in the best interests of the Liberal Party. History says the party will not move against him. John Gorton is the only election-winning Liberal prime minister to be deposed by his own party. And Howard’s own decade of success renders it unthinkable for the party to tap him.
There is no appetite for regicide in the Liberal Party. Especially of a highly successful and admired regent to whom many MPs _ especially the many elected after 1996 _ owe their political careers. That much became clear when Howard confronted cabinet in July, asking them whether it was he that explained the Government’s dark polling position.
Outside of parliament, there is also no one with the authority to do so. While previous federal Liberal Party presidents have had the courage to make the hard calls, no such authority exists under the present party president. Which is why it comes down to Howard. No one else.
Howard draws on few people for advice. Certainly his wife, Janette, and Foreign Minister Alexander Downer. Who knows what is going on behind closed doors? If he accepts there is a harmful Howard factor at work, then a change of leadership, as risky as it is, must be a serious alternative.
The danger is that the same qualities that made and defined Howard as this country’s most successful prime minister, his courage and persistence, may also work towards his eventual electoral ruin and that of the party.
As much as it is in Howard’s nature to take the fight down the wire, being courageous enough to go out in a grand Churchillian manner will not help Howard or the party.
There is little nobility in defeat if it means his prime ministership will be forever tainted by him losing his seat.
And the real prospect that Howard may take the party down with him surely answers the question as to what Howard should do.
Unfortunately, politics being what it is, telling the Prime Minister that he should make way for a new leader will be seen by some as an act of treachery. Yet, having the highest respect for Howard means providing fearless opinions. It’s time to hang up the pads.
janeta@bigpond.net.au
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com...heaustralian/comments/pass_baton_to_costello/
PASS THE BATON TO COSTELLO!
Janet Albrechtsen Blog | September 06, 2007 |
The Howard factor made it cool to be conservative and delivered success; now it presages defeat
THIS is one of the hardest columns I will write. John Howard has been the finest prime minister Australia has had. He has overseen extraordinary economic success, created the conditions for a whole new class of aspirational Australians to prosper from the inevitable forces of globalisation, confronted the scourge of terrorism and has fundamentally realigned the political landscape in this country on so many fronts.
Under Howard it became cool to be a conservative. He rebuilt a political philosophy of individual responsibility for a new generation. His legacy is profound. From workplace reform to welfare to indigenous politics, to our sense of national identity, Howard has changed the nation in a way very few leaders ever do. Each step rankled his opponents as they clung to old orthodoxies. Yet Howard, through sheer dint of character and intellectual fortitude, prevailed.
But now he must go.
It’s not easy saying that. The economic numbers certainly do not warrant it. All the numbers are in the right direction. Unemployment at historic lows.
Economic growth at healthy highs. Neither does Howard’s character warrant it. He has been a leader in the true sense of the word. He has tapped into what the community thinks in a way his predecessor Paul Keating never did. He has overseen a period of unity within the federal Liberal Party that has enabled the Howard Government to win election after election. Every time he was written off, Howard fought back. But after 11 glorious years, this time the bad polls are pointing to something altogether different.
Complacency in the electorate accounts for some of it. An entire generation has experienced nothing except economic prosperity. Even when other economies faltered, Australia remained stable. Kevin Rudd is also a key to what is happening. Not his policies, for few differ dramatically from Howard. But he has played the politics right. His has been a tight game, feeding on that complacency, deliberately echoing Howard in the knowledge that the Australian electorate is inherently conservative.
To shift an electorate while the economy is booming, Rudd has provided a credible alternative: a steady hand on the tiller but a fresh face.
But something else is happening. It may not be rational. It may not be fair. It’s not about Howard’s age. He is fit, capable and, like that Energizer bunny, he could stay on to fight another fight. But voters appear to have turned off Howard. They appear to have stopped listening. Each new initiative that was meant to deliver a electoral bounce has failed to do so.
The Howard factor is there. Where once it meant success, now it presages defeat. A defeat that perhaps can only be avoided if Howard steps aside. What makes it so depressing is that so many conservatives and senior Liberals remain in denial.
The last rabbit Howard should pull out of the hat is Peter Costello.
Those who doubt if such a change (from Howard to Costello) would have much of an impact should reflect on recent events in Britain.
Tony Blair, like John Howard, was one of the most successful election winning machines in his party’s history. But after seeing off a succession of lacklustre Opposition leaders, Blair suddenly began to show his age when facing the latest Tory hopeful David Cameron.
A poll in February put Cameron 11 points up, enough to give his party a 100-seat majority in parliament. Up against a prime minister who had been around for far too long, the Conservatives were recording their highest support for 15 years.
Then, in June, everything changed. Gordon Brown, like Costello, the longstanding heir apparent and finance minister, finally took over the leadership. The result: an immediate poll boost for Labour.
Just a fortnight on, Labour recorded its biggest lead over the Conservatives since Cameron had become leader more than 18 months earlier.
The Government’s lead rose to 10 points a month later. Brown embarked on no new major shifts in policy: ``New’’ Labour hadn’t reverted to ``Old’’ Labour overnight. No, the Government got a boost merely because there was a new face at the top.
After 10 years, the British public had simply grown tired of Tony Blair.
Switching from Blair to Brown will probably be enough to guarantee that Labour’s record-breaking period of office is continued.
And in the same way, the coronation of Australia’s longstanding heir apparent could represent the best chance the Coalition has of staying in power, too.
The appeal of a young and fresh Costello could change the media narrative and work wonders for a tiring Government that is seen as out of touch.
He can commit to the future in a way that Howard cannot. Costello as future prime minister will force voters to take a second, more careful look at the Liberal Party instead of choosing between the new Rudd and the old Howard. The nay-sayers will point to Costello’s poor personal polling as alternative prime minister, to his perceived arrogance and petulance.
Yet Rudd was no obvious leader on that score. Once elected leader he rose to the occasion, changing the political dynamic in a way few imagined. To dismiss that Costello can do the same is to concede defeat.
Howard has crafted his continuing leadership on a simple equation. He will remain as Prime Minister as long as the party wants him and so long as it is in the best interests of the Liberal Party. History says the party will not move against him. John Gorton is the only election-winning Liberal prime minister to be deposed by his own party. And Howard’s own decade of success renders it unthinkable for the party to tap him.
There is no appetite for regicide in the Liberal Party. Especially of a highly successful and admired regent to whom many MPs _ especially the many elected after 1996 _ owe their political careers. That much became clear when Howard confronted cabinet in July, asking them whether it was he that explained the Government’s dark polling position.
Outside of parliament, there is also no one with the authority to do so. While previous federal Liberal Party presidents have had the courage to make the hard calls, no such authority exists under the present party president. Which is why it comes down to Howard. No one else.
Howard draws on few people for advice. Certainly his wife, Janette, and Foreign Minister Alexander Downer. Who knows what is going on behind closed doors? If he accepts there is a harmful Howard factor at work, then a change of leadership, as risky as it is, must be a serious alternative.
The danger is that the same qualities that made and defined Howard as this country’s most successful prime minister, his courage and persistence, may also work towards his eventual electoral ruin and that of the party.
As much as it is in Howard’s nature to take the fight down the wire, being courageous enough to go out in a grand Churchillian manner will not help Howard or the party.
There is little nobility in defeat if it means his prime ministership will be forever tainted by him losing his seat.
And the real prospect that Howard may take the party down with him surely answers the question as to what Howard should do.
Unfortunately, politics being what it is, telling the Prime Minister that he should make way for a new leader will be seen by some as an act of treachery. Yet, having the highest respect for Howard means providing fearless opinions. It’s time to hang up the pads.
janeta@bigpond.net.au
