Opinion Are we being too optimistic?

[muttweed]

With the new season coming through, we're getting back players that would have helped us go that much further in 2012.

Vardy, in my honest opinion, could be the difference between us winning or losing a close game. I trust his kick for goal a lot better than I would a Pods or Walker. We were left wanting a few times this year. Our midfield would work out of their skin only for our forwards to waste their opportunities and lose us the game.

Varcoe is far and beyond our most important running player. That famous Varcoe goal in the 2011 GF only emphasises his effort and impact.

Menzel was our third highest goalkicker in 2011. When this kid comes in I think he'll have an impact, knee recos or not.

Caddy is a promising young player who will only improve with more games, this time in an infinitely better team.

Pretty good ins so far, yeah? Our outs are Scarlett, Wojcinski, Byrnes and Hogan; all who I love and admire and respect more than the next person, but all were fairly average most of the year to be completely honest. We have players like Enright, Chapman, Corey and Hunt all aging. But in all truth, Enright has never shown obvious signs of aging, Chapman will play as a fulltime forward where he is still dangerous, Corey has a fair few promising youngsters on the sidelines waiting for him to chuck off the boots and Hunt had a good 2012 season.

I expect a finish from 5th-8th, but I will in no way be surprised if we make top 4. The boys do like to shock people.

I went on the Main Board predictions thread, and expected a bunch of doubters, who at least this time were justified. I expected a bunch of 8th places for Geelong. To my "surprise", it was worse than I thought. People left, right and centre were predicting a sub-12th position for Geelong. Which, by the way, we have never had the pleasure of achieving in our entire history.

I like these ones the best.

1. Adelaide
2. Sydney
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. North Melbourne
6. Carlton
7. West Coast
8. Richmond
9. Fremantle
10. Brisbane
11. St Kilda
12. Port Adelaide
13. Geelong (finishing below Port?!)
14. Melbourne
15. Essendon
16. Gold Coast
17. Western Bulldogs
18. GWS

Premiers: North Melbourne
Runners Up: Adelaide
Brownlow: Swallow
Coleman: T Walker

1 West Coast

2 Hawthorn
3 Fremantle
4 Brisbane
5 Sydney
6 Richmond
7 North Melbourne
8 Adelaide
9 Collingwood
10 Port Adelaide
11 Essendon
12 Gold Coast
13 St.Kilda
14 Geelong (finishing below Port and GC?!)
15 Melbourne
16 Western Bulldogs
17 GWS
18 Carlton

Premiers: WC
Coleman: TWalker
Brownlow: Mitch Morton T.Cotchin

These anomalies got me thinking. Most of us have gotten used to the success, maybe so much so that we've forgotten the cycle of footy...whereas other less fortunate clubs would have a better idea of when we'll fall. Are we being too optimistic or hopeful on our chances? Or are they just unreasonable idiots who assume we'll bottom out just because their club did?

Discuss

 

[isen river]

Those predictions you've quoted would be a fair way from being regarded as general consensus amongst rational AFL followers. I'd expect a finish from 5-8th but I wouldn't be totally shocked if we finished outside the eight or inside the top four.

 

[Sttew]

I like flying under the radar. Let others think we're on the big slide.

 

[BallerO]

With Varcoe, Vardy, Menzel and Caddy + a healed Bartel and a better effort from our team then this year, i have no doubt we can be top 2.

If we beat the top 3 sides in the last few weeks of this season with the poor form we had been playing with all season, I'm fairly sure with the inclusion of such impacting players we can rise back up to the top.

 

[Belisarius]

Geelong will play finals next season. Absolutely no doubt.

I expect we will finish the H&A fixture between 4th and 6th.

What will hold us back is just how young many of our players will be in AFL experience.

Vardy, Menzel, Caddy, Murdoch, Motlop, Guthrie and Smedts. Even Bundy, THunt, Duncan and West are not that experienced. That is a pretty big chunck of players that we are relying on.

It takes a whole team effort to make the top 4 and win a Premiership. No significant weak links.

While I think these guys are genuine players they could do with some more AFL experience.

I think we will still surprise a lot of footy pundits next season. Just hard to tell how much.

 

[rooke33]

I think the people you chose are obviously deluded. The North bloke more so on where they will be than where Geelong is. Has North not only winning the flag, but they are going to do it from 5th. Other bloke has Brisbane top 4, hmmm.

I see no reason why we will not be competitive again. Still got a week of trading left to see where our list will be at for the start of next season, but as it stands Scarlett is the only big loss and people will be quick to point out he was not at his best last year anyway.

We were able to shake of the loss of Ablett and Thompson by going on to win the following seasons premiership.
We were written off after losing Ottens and Ling, which I personally think was a bigger loss than we face this year and were still competitive and finished comfortably in the 8.

Surely there should be a competition for the funniest thing someone would do if we finish below Port next season.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Meh. People were tipping us to miss the finals all together this time 2010 for the following year. Barring a horrific run with injuries there is no way in the world we will miss the finals next year.

 

[Jmac2225]

A lot of variables come into play each season but if everything clicks next year I have no doubt we can win the premiership.

That's a big if though. I think at worst we could finish 10th but a lot would have to go wrong.

 

[catswhiskers]

If Rivers comes on board it is time to get a small wager on top four. Won't have seen a better price for quite a while.

Many sides will improve but its the depth on our list that will be a big advantage.

 

[you pick one]

Trading the 2nd Ablett compo pick tells me the club are optimistic,or we would have hung on to it.

 

[SJ]

In my opinion our midfield is too weak to challenge for a flag in 2013.

 

[Aussiemac82]

Being optimistic is a trait of success.

Going into the start of a season thinking about losing isn't an option. We have every chance of being in a spot to contend when it matters most.

I honestly think, our squad of 30 players are better than 80% of other teams. We will finish top 6.

 

[FredLeDeux]

In my opinion our midfield is too weak to challenge for a flag in 2013.

I don't know if it's too weak, but it is definitely still our biggest weakness.

 

[thejester]

I'm confident we'll comfortably make finals. Doubt we'll win the flag but as our coach says, all we have to do is put ourselves in a position to compete. That said think some of your player predications are optimistic. Vardy is a long way from stringing consistent games together, let alone being the difference between victory and defeat. All of the 99ers are showing signs of slowing down, even Boris. Caddy's been recruited for the next ten years, not because he'll have a huge impact next season.

 

[Megaman123]

Its hard to not be optimistic after what the club has done. And when a fair chunk of our Premiership success is still running round, the names on paper make it easy to believe we will contend. The reality is these guys probably hold the key for us, the experienced players need to stay healthy and play to their 2010 form. Hard to do when they are 2 years older, lots around the 30 mark. They play well, it allows young guys like Bundy, Duncan, Caddy, Vardy etc to develop without as much pressure from opposition clubs. As long as our experienced players are playing well, they will always attract the best defenders and allow the younger crew to go about getting a kick and improving.

The other thing which we will do as supporters, in the same way other clubs do, is highly rate our young guys coming through. On our board, Kersten is considered a potential future star. Our supporters have seen him play VFL and seen what he is capable of. Same as GHS, Eardley, our rookies etc. Geelong fans know them, and we are optimistic they will be great players. Mention these names to Joe Blow on another team board and they laugh at you and say "Who the hell is that?" Same when you read a board for say Brisbane, where they are convinced Sam Docherty, Jack Crisp and Pat Karnezis will deliver them future success. The great part about this time of year is EVERY supporter is optimistic next year will be a good year for their club.

For what is is worth, I think we could very well finish top 4. I think Smedts, Guthrie, Murdoch, Kersten, Caddy, Bundy and GHS will all improve on what we saw this year. The senior champs like Chappy, Kelly, Bartel play high level footy and stay healthy and who knows where we will end up. Thats the great part about this time of year, optimism isnt ruined by a crap game or an injury to a player. If anything, it will build as pre season rolls on. Go Cats.

 

[Sttew]

In my opinion our midfield is too weak to challenge for a flag in 2013.

The mixed fortunes of Geelong's midfield in 2012 would suggest there is a fair bit of work to be done - Selwood can't do it on his own. So who is our midfield?

Selwood - top 10 midfielder
Kelly - underrated outside Geelong. Getting on in age, though
Bartel - can we expect an injury free Bartel to spend more time in the middle in 2013?
Caddy - in & under midfielder. Unknown quantity at this stage.
Christensen - expect him to spend more time in the middle. Could be the surprise packet as he enters his third season.
Johnson - racked possessions when he played midfield, but most would agree he was wasted there. Needs to be kicking goals.
Corey - aging warrior who, based on 2012 form, may not get much play time in the middle
Horlin-Smith - emerging midfielder. 3 games against his name suggests he is a work-in-progress.
Duncan - now a regular in the starting 22, could become a midfield fixture?
Varcoe - described in his bio as a "forward capable of running through the midfield", given his recent track record, would expect it will take him some time to become a regular midfielder.
Smedts - a lot to like about this kid who could / should become part of Geelong's next "midfield machine".

All in all, things are not all that crook, but....

 

[bulletproof]

I read the thread the OP was talking about and i was surprised at how many people had Geelong missing the 8 as well, at least 80%.

I can understand why people are predicting a decline, it does fit the narrative arc of great teams in our sport.

I think this trade week has been a good one for us so far though, we have brought in a young midfielder, our rivals have not (Tippet deal pending) had a net gain like that. We probably need Caddy to really contribute, Stringer or GHS to make an impact and Duncan to improve again to really mix it with the top sides. That is also presuming that Bartel and Selwood have good years as well. Lot to go right but the pieces are there.

I think if we get on a roll early and stay injury free we will be back in the hunt. I think that is true for at least 10 sides though.

 

[Cat of Ages]

Trading the 2nd Ablett compo pick tells me the club are optimistic,or we would have hung on to it.

I think that is a very good point! They are chasing top 4. I think we will see a real cussedness next year because the Freo loss seems to have been a big shock. (Great to be talking about the chances overall rather than just the draft crystal ball, which was making my head ache.) Of those two projected ladders, let's look at the teams others put above us. Bris. and Port the only total unlikelies. Saints nearly nabbed us with a smart change of forward structure this year; Richmond - we can never tell when the powder in the keg will finally dry off; GCS will have a few surprises and it might come down to the point of the season when we play them. But Cats will be desperate for a big start to the year. The slow start to games was echoed in a slow start to the year in 2012. And think back to what Dasher's goal did in 2011 to start that year rolling. Go Cats!

 

[Belisarius]

In regards to midfield - it is average at present because we have lost Ling, Ablett and Ottens. All really good players.

And now Corey is less effective than he once was. Bartel does not play as mid much anymore and Chapman will be used sparingly as a mid.

We have genuine youngsters in Duncan, West and Bundy coming thru - but they do replace the trio we lost well - just yet.

That is why SJ will play midfield - as he could be a ball magnet in the midfield - and we add Caddy - and we have enough depth with Selwood and Kelly already stand outs for us.

If we added HMac - Caddy and SJ have good seasons - and Bundy and Duncan keep making progress - we are in with a big show - because the midfield would be quite strong in this case.

People often forget what SJ could do as a mid. And if we had a another ruckman who could add some dominace over the opposition ruckman we would win more clearances and take more marks from kick ins and around the ground.

It may not happen - but it could !

 

[Strangled Cat]

Its hard to not be optimistic after what the club has done. And when a fair chunk of our Premiership success is still running round, the names on paper make it easy to believe we will contend. The reality is these guys probably hold the key for us, the experienced players need to stay healthy and play to their 2010 form. Hard to do when they are 2 years older, lots around the 30 mark. They play well, it allows young guys like Bundy, Duncan, Caddy, Vardy etc to develop without as much pressure from opposition clubs. As long as our experienced players are playing well, they will always attract the best defenders and allow the younger crew to go about getting a kick and improving.

The other thing which we will do as supporters, in the same way other clubs do, is highly rate our young guys coming through. On our board, Kersten is considered a potential future star. Our supporters have seen him play VFL and seen what he is capable of. Same as GHS, Eardley, our rookies etc. Geelong fans know them, and we are optimistic they will be great players. Mention these names to Joe Blow on another team board and they laugh at you and say "Who the hell is that?" Same when you read a board for say Brisbane, where they are convinced Sam Docherty, Jack Crisp and Pat Karnezis will deliver them future success. The great part about this time of year is EVERY supporter is optimistic next year will be a good year for their club.

For what is is worth, I think we could very well finish top 4. I think Smedts, Guthrie, Murdoch, Kersten, Caddy, Bundy and GHS will all improve on what we saw this year. The senior champs like Chappy, Kelly, Bartel play high level footy and stay healthy and who knows where we will end up. Thats the great part about this time of year, optimism isnt ruined by a crap game or an injury to a player. If anything, it will build as pre season rolls on. Go Cats.

Its hard to not be optimistic after what the club has done. And when a fair chunk of our Premiership success is still running round, the names on paper make it easy to believe we will contend. The reality is these guys probably hold the key for us, the experienced players need to stay healthy and play to their 2010 form. Hard to do when they are 2 years older, lots around the 30 mark. They play well, it allows young guys like Bundy, Duncan, Caddy, Vardy etc to develop without as much pressure from opposition clubs. As long as our experienced players are playing well, they will always attract the best defenders and allow the younger crew to go about getting a kick and improving.

The other thing which we will do as supporters, in the same way other clubs do, is highly rate our young guys coming through. On our board, Kersten is considered a potential future star. Our supporters have seen him play VFL and seen what he is capable of. Same as GHS, Eardley, our rookies etc. Geelong fans know them, and we are optimistic they will be great players. Mention these names to Joe Blow on another team board and they laugh at you and say "Who the hell is that?" Same when you read a board for say Brisbane, where they are convinced Sam Docherty, Jack Crisp and Pat Karnezis will deliver them future success. The great part about this time of year is EVERY supporter is optimistic next year will be a good year for their club.

For what is is worth, I think we could very well finish top 4. I think Smedts, Guthrie, Murdoch, Kersten, Caddy, Bundy and GHS will all improve on what we saw this year. The senior champs like Chappy, Kelly, Bartel play high level footy and stay healthy and who knows where we will end up. Thats the great part about this time of year, optimism isnt ruined by a crap game or an injury to a player. If anything, it will build as pre season rolls on. Go Cats.

Great post mate. I think that our optimism is definitely warranted based on what we've seen from the young guys in the VFL and seniors over the last couple of years. We do tend to rate our own better than the rest simply because we just don't know any better. Speaking for myself, I know bugger all about other teams young fellas because quite frankly it is hard enough just keeping track of our own.

I'm guilty of assuming that a teams kids can only be as relatively good as the seniors, otherwise they'd be playing in the seniors. It's flawed logic to think, but over time you start to wonder with teams like Melbourne, Richmond, Bulldogs and Port just wtf is going on down there. When we come off winning thr Premiership in 2011, it's really astonishing to think the following year that our VFL team comprised with a lot of our very young kittens could win the flag when we were the most compromised team at the draft jn 2011 and for many years before that.

I think we can definitely finish top 4 next year. The club have clearly identified our biggest weakness, which is in the midfield - predominantly in regards to clearences, and have accordingly drafted and are continuing to attempt to rectify this issue through the trade period. Hmac and Caddy will help in this regard, whilst effectively neutrelising the loss of Scarlett by trying to get Rivers. With the pill in our hand more, our defence won't be so under the pump, which means we obviously have more time to structure up and be better prepaired for when the ball does end up in our defence. The best form of defence is attack, so winning the pill into our elite ball users hands and we could be a very damaging side coupled with our potent forward line.

 

[Sttew]

Great post mate. .

So good you quoted it twice!!

 

[Strangled Cat]

So good you quoted it twice!!

Yeah it's quite awkward posting in the phone, the cursor bounces around everywhere and you just can't see larger slabs of text in the small window. Oh well!

 

[cynical]

Think we are a good shot at the flag if we get Hmac.

The reasons being:

- Hawthorn and Sydney are rubbish teams, certainly no where near any of the top 2 sides since 07
- getting HMac and Caddy really helps our midfield, even though Caddy is unlikely to be elite next year he adds depth. So now we hopefully have Caddy, GHS, Varcoe, Stringer, Cowan, Hmac, Simpson and Vardy adding to our ruck and midfield depth.
- Adding Vardy and Menzel to the forward line improves our marking power significantly, also by having West play the no2 ruck role he'll play much more forward.

Only real worry is the back line, it's old and slow. I really hope Guthrie, Brown and Murdoch all play there and play well.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I'd be happy with a similar result to this year. First week of finals, I think, is par. I could easily see us missing. On the other hand, with the fixture that has been done by the AFL in recent years, we could reasonably expect to get an easier draw than last year (two trips to Subiaco with neither WA team making the trip to Geelong, two games against each of the top four teams). We're not a top four team, so we shouldn't get hammered with our fixture, like we were in 2011 and 2012. If we only make one trip to Subiaco, get West Coast and Fremantle at home and play, say, Hawthorn, West Coast, Gold Coast (the Ablett factor and now the Caddy factor), St Kilda and Western Bulldogs twice, with interstate trips to Subiaco (x 1), AAMI (x 1), Qld (x 2) and NSW (x 2) we should be able to get to 14-15 wins again. That fixture would be so much easier than what we had this year, it's not funny.

 

[ATSAM]

No!!!!!!!!