Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

[LanceRomance]

SOS declared rebuild done after the 2018 draft and trade period.
And what I think he meant by that was the Nexus of the next premiership was all at the club.

Yes, the first half of this year was an unmitigated failure

 

[iAsbestos]

Keen AF for next year

 

[HereComesJuddy]

SOS declared rebuild done after the 2018 draft and trade period.
And what I think he meant by that was the Nexus of the next premiership was all at the club.

Think he meant we will have an amazing off season in 2019 and bring in some very good players both senior and youth. Then look the F out competition

 

[Blue_Steel89]

Keen AF for next year

 

[thylacine60]

cocaine's a hell of a drug......

 

[gbatman]

This year is one to look back at our rebuild, this is the season to make judgement on it and to make judgement on how well SOS etc has done. The reason for that is it will be our 7th year. Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham and Silvagni were drafted at the beginning of our rebuild and will be in their 7th season. 7 being the magic number for rebuilds.

Looking into the past of teams who have won recent flags, the list's journey generally starts 7 years prior. If you go back 7 years from their flag you will generally see a clutch of early draft picks that signify the start of a team's intention to embrace the draft and rebuild the list, give or take a season. 7 seems to be the magic number for how long it takes to fully rebuild a list to premiership quality. You look at Melbourne, Petracca, Lever (drafted at another club), Brayshaw and Neal-Bullen were taken in 2014 and signified the start of Melbourne's rebuild. A prime example of 7 years of patient rebuilding and going through a good number of lean years. Sure there are players who have been on the list prior to that 7 year period but there are always some who were drafted prior, when the direction of the list management was different, who hang on through the rebuild and make it out the other side.

It's a big year for us, it's a huge year for us really. TBH I think we have a pretty good list. We were ok last year with an immature team, lots of injuries and a sketchy game plan. We have a lot of player with a lot of potential.

This year marks our coming of age as a list and with a little luck with injuries it may see the rise of a quality list.

We are a team of ifs. Losing Jones hurts but if Young or McDonald step up then we are fine. If McGovern, Stocker, Cuningham, Curnow, DeKoning, Dow, Marchbank, Williams, Carroll, Kemp, Philp, Durdin, Motlop, Martin, Fisher, O'Brien, Young, Honey, Owies and Setterfield all get fit, mature and step up we go ahead in a big way and they all have reasons to. Hewett and Cerra are big gets for us. It's a big group who haven't been fit and haven't been mature and experienced but that could all come together soon.

I'm not sure where the idea of a 66 game rebuild came from, it takes a lot longer than that. To find 26 or 28 top quality players, recruit them, wait for them to be mostly over 22 so they are mature enough and to develop them sure takes a lot longer than 3 seasons. As history shows it generally takes 7 and here we are.

This is why this is the year to get excited. This is the season to either have our hopes crushed or to finally experience the joy of following a successful team.
The rebuild has been prematurely announced as finished before but IMO that has not been the case. IMO the last draft was the finishing point. There may be holes to fill but we should no longer be a "rebuilding" team.

IMO expectations have been premature but now they aren't. Finals should be the expectation of a team in it's 7th season of rebuilding and this is where we are at. Maybe we are a year behind because of how extensive our rebuild has been and because of the games missed by our young talent with injuries but I don't think this means we should miss finals. I think we have hit our magic number and should be ready to go.

 

[bigblueboy]

This year is one to look back at our rebuild, this is the season to make judgement on it and to make judgement on how well SOS etc has done. The reason for that is it will be our 7th year. Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham and Silvagni were drafted at the beginning of our rebuild and will be in their 7th season. 7 being the magic number for rebuilds.

Looking into the past of teams who have won recent flags, the list's journey generally starts 7 years prior. If you go back 7 years from their flag you will generally see a clutch of early draft picks that signify the start of a team's intention to embrace the draft and rebuild the list, give or take a season. 7 seems to be the magic number for how long it takes to fully rebuild a list to premiership quality. You look at Melbourne, Petracca, Lever (drafted at another club), Brayshaw and Neal-Bullen were taken in 2014 and signified the start of Melbourne's rebuild. A prime example of 7 years of patient rebuilding and going through a good number of lean years. Sure there are players who have been on the list prior to that 7 year period but there are always some who were drafted prior, when the direction of the list management was different, who hang on through the rebuild and make it out the other side.

It's a big year for us, it's a huge year for us really. TBH I think we have a pretty good list. We were ok last year with an immature team, lots of injuries and a sketchy game plan. We have a lot of player with a lot of potential.

This year marks our coming of age as a list and with a little luck with injuries it may see the rise of a quality list.

We are a team of ifs. Losing Jones hurts but if Young or McDonald step up then we are fine. If McGovern, Stocker, Cuningham, Curnow, DeKoning, Dow, Marchbank, Williams, Carroll, Kemp, Philp, Durdin, Motlop, Martin, Fisher, O'Brien, Young, Honey, Owies and Setterfield all get fit, mature and step up we go ahead in a big way and they all have reasons to. Hewett and Cerra are big gets for us. It's a big group who haven't been fit and haven't been mature and experienced but that could all come together soon.

I'm not sure where the idea of a 66 game rebuild came from, it takes a lot longer than that. To find 26 or 28 top quality players, recruit them, wait for them to be mostly over 22 so they are mature enough and to develop them sure takes a lot longer than 3 seasons. As history shows it generally takes 7 and here we are.

This is why this is the year to get excited. This is the season to either have our hopes crushed or to finally experience the joy of following a successful team.
The rebuild has been prematurely announced as finished before but IMO that has not been the case. IMO the last draft was the finishing point. There may be holes to fill but we should no longer be a "rebuilding" team.

IMO expectations have been premature but now they aren't. Finals should be the expectation of a team in it's 7th season of rebuilding and this is where we are at. Maybe we are a year behind because of how extensive our rebuild has been and because of the games missed by our young talent with injuries but I don't think this means we should miss finals. I think we have hit our magic number and should be ready to go.

Great post.
In regard to the highlighted ... it would be hard to spin a 7-year++ rebuild to maintain/grow membership.
Good example of the PR folk having a lot of influence on public statements in previous regimes ...

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Interesting post and going through the drafts of both clubs there are certainly some parallels between Melbourne's list build and ours. Both clubs have genuine A grade talent they drafted early, and equally both clubs made some horrendous errors in the draft.. We have both brought in key players through trade/free agent and like Demons some of them took a few years to show their true value, but dont think anyone would be questioning the selections of Lever and May.

The most critical difference is Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

33

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

, a dominant ruck and until we have this we can forget about challenging.. I hope we can play finals this year but unless TDK improves out of site or I am missing something with Pittonet and he becomes genuine AFL standard then i fear we will always struggle until we get this piece right.

 

[CJMB]

Interesting post and going through the drafts of both clubs there are certainly some parallels between Melbourne's list build and ours. Both clubs have genuine A grade talent they drafted early, and equally both clubs made some horrendous errors in the draft.. We have both brought in key players through trade/free agent and like Demons some of them took a few years to show their true value, but dont think anyone would be questioning the selections of Lever and May.

The most critical difference is Max Gawn, a dominant ruck and until we have this we can forget about challenging.. I hope we can play finals this year but unless TDK improves out of site or I am missing something with Pittonet and he becomes genuine AFL standard then i fear we will always struggle until we get this piece right.

Gawn/Jackson
Nankervis/Balta(?)
Nankervis/Soldo
Lycett/Vardy
Nankervis/Grigg
Roughead/Boyd
McEvoy/Hale
McEvoy/Hale
Hale/Bailey
Pyke/Mumford

Not sure you need a superstar, more like a couple of solid competitors. Ideally one or both can hit the scoreboard and each have a bit of a point of difference

 

[Robert Heatley]

Good posts all round. Our list was quite bereft of AFL standard players at the “start”. No matter what you think of Bolton’s coaching, I don’t think too many bigger shit sandwiches have ever been delivered to a coach at the start of their tenure.

The massive turnover of players in the first 3 years demonstrates that.

I think we now have a stable list. Still plenty of room for improvement, and like others, the ruck situation is an area of interest. I think both are capable, but it’s doing it every quarter of every week.

We now have a list to manage, not just throw off an obvious 7 to 10 players every year and get in who we can.

 

[thylacine60]

This year is one to look back at our rebuild, this is the season to make judgement on it and to make judgement on how well SOS etc has done. The reason for that is it will be our 7th year. Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham and Silvagni were drafted at the beginning of our rebuild and will be in their 7th season. 7 being the magic number for rebuilds.

Looking into the past of teams who have won recent flags, the list's journey generally starts 7 years prior. If you go back 7 years from their flag you will generally see a clutch of early draft picks that signify the start of a team's intention to embrace the draft and rebuild the list, give or take a season. 7 seems to be the magic number for how long it takes to fully rebuild a list to premiership quality. You look at Melbourne, Petracca, Lever (drafted at another club), Brayshaw and Neal-Bullen were taken in 2014 and signified the start of Melbourne's rebuild. A prime example of 7 years of patient rebuilding and going through a good number of lean years. Sure there are players who have been on the list prior to that 7 year period but there are always some who were drafted prior, when the direction of the list management was different, who hang on through the rebuild and make it out the other side.

It's a big year for us, it's a huge year for us really. TBH I think we have a pretty good list. We were ok last year with an immature team, lots of injuries and a sketchy game plan. We have a lot of player with a lot of potential.

This year marks our coming of age as a list and with a little luck with injuries it may see the rise of a quality list.

We are a team of ifs. Losing Jones hurts but if Young or McDonald step up then we are fine. If McGovern, Stocker, Cuningham, Curnow, DeKoning, Dow, Marchbank, Williams, Carroll, Kemp, Philp, Durdin, Motlop, Martin, Fisher, O'Brien, Young, Honey, Owies and Setterfield all get fit, mature and step up we go ahead in a big way and they all have reasons to. Hewett and Cerra are big gets for us. It's a big group who haven't been fit and haven't been mature and experienced but that could all come together soon.

I'm not sure where the idea of a 66 game rebuild came from, it takes a lot longer than that. To find 26 or 28 top quality players, recruit them, wait for them to be mostly over 22 so they are mature enough and to develop them sure takes a lot longer than 3 seasons. As history shows it generally takes 7 and here we are.

This is why this is the year to get excited. This is the season to either have our hopes crushed or to finally experience the joy of following a successful team.
The rebuild has been prematurely announced as finished before but IMO that has not been the case. IMO the last draft was the finishing point. There may be holes to fill but we should no longer be a "rebuilding" team.

IMO expectations have been premature but now they aren't. Finals should be the expectation of a team in it's 7th season of rebuilding and this is where we are at. Maybe we are a year behind because of how extensive our rebuild has been and because of the games missed by our young talent with injuries but I don't think this means we should miss finals. I think we have hit our magic number and should be ready to go.

that's why he wears the headband folks..............

 

[thylacine60]

the biggest difference between us and say, dees, is they know they can win and win under pressure - they've shown that in no uncertain way last year - I love our age range, our seasoned players from other club set-ups, the amount of core stars who by now should know each other's games back to front, the sifting, the pushing from underneath as our bottom 6 improves, the cream on the top as we add class, please god we get some sort of regular season this year, a break (ah!) with injuries, a return to form of the players we know are capable, a spurt of form from those who've threatened it, go you beautiful blueboys.....

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

I have always felt TDK is more a forward than a ruckman. I seriously think he could be one of the most exciting forwards in the game if he was there full time. I know it won’t happen but…..

 

[BigFrizz36]

I have always felt TDK is more a forward than a ruckman. I seriously think he could be one of the most exciting forwards in the game if he was there full time. I know it won’t happen but…..

Interesting quote from Geelong development coach Josh Jenkins (I know - probably a bit over the top) today that Sam De Koning "He's got the potential to be an out and out star at centre half back, you won't remember Lachie Henderson and Harry Taylor after he plays about 40 games"

I would hope that the club don't completely have the blinkers on about TDK and where he is best suited. I know we need him as a ruckman currently but he might well be more value to us as a key position player.

 

[thylacine60]

josh jenkins

11

Josh Jenkins

Age

36

Ht

200cm

Wt

108kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

9.1

4star

HB

3.8

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.1

5star

No current season stats available

D

11.0

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

1.6

5star

........

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

Interesting quote from Geelong development coach Josh Jenkins (I know - probably a bit over the top) today that Sam De Koning "He's got the potential to be an out and out star at centre half back, you won't remember Lachie Henderson and Harry Taylor after he plays about 40 games"

I would hope that the club don't completely have the blinkers on about TDK and where he is best suited. I know we need him as a ruckman currently but he might well be more value to us as a key position player.

I reckon he got the Lachie Henderson bit spot on.

 

[BigFrizz36]

I reckon he got the Lachie Henderson bit spot on.

Doesn't need 40 games from S.D.K. for me to forget him.

 

[BigFrizz36]

josh jenkins........

Apparently the phrase "Joe the Goose" was coined in his honour.

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

Apparently the phrase "Joe the Goose" was coined in his honour.

Nah pretty sure ****ing goose was the one coined in his honour.

 

[Jeremias]

Gawn/Jackson
Nankervis/Balta(?)
Nankervis/Soldo
Lycett/Vardy
Nankervis/Grigg
Roughead/Boyd
McEvoy/Hale
McEvoy/Hale
Hale/Bailey
Pyke/Mumford

Not sure you need a superstar, more like a couple of solid competitors. Ideally one or both can hit the scoreboard and each have a bit of a point of difference

Wouldn't bother - this theory that you need a superstar ruck to win a flag has been debunked time and time again, but people see what they want to see.

 

[Malifice]

I always said through the rebuild that we should be knocking on the door of the 8 last year, and making it in this year.

That was before 2 x coach sackings, and backroom politics which has set us back a bit, and made me deeply concerned we (as a club) haven't learnt a damn thing from the previous 4 x coach sackings, and backroom politics.

We also havent landed the big free agency fish that I wanted, and if Dow and LOB dont come on this year will leave us with at least 3 x early 1st rounders blown (including SPS), which is another major setback. We really needed to nail every 1st rounder with at least an AFL capable 100 gamer, with a few stars in there.

We absolutely have to make the 8 at least this year, and be playing a sustainable brand of footy, with a view to giving the flag a shake next year.

 

[Red Bull]

Nah pretty sure ******* goose was the one coined in his honour.

Pretty sure he “won” the Leon Davis medal in a landslide too.
And this evening he has popped up on the Pakenham races coverage flogging the sportsbet odds.
Yep … he’s ticking some boxes …

 

[Jeremias]

We really needed to nail every 1st rounder with at least an AFL capable 100 gamer, with a few stars in there.

This is not true and is completely unrealistic. No club nails all their early draft picks, even recent premiership sides.

Sure you need to nail some of them (and we have) but just as important are what you do with later picks, and the players you bring in from other sides.

 

[BigBreakfast]

Thunderdome! Two Mods enter, one keeps status. Thy becomes Mod. Ummmmm

 

[La Dispute]

This is not true and is completely unrealistic. No club nails all their early draft picks, even recent premiership sides.

Sure you need to nail some of them (and we have) but just as important are what you do with later picks, and the players you bring in from other sides.

Bingo.

Richmond butchered a lot of first round round picks on their way to their 3 flags.

Melbourne blew even more between 2007-2012.

I hope the club has learnt not to place as much stock in early draft picks and concentrate on making as many good selections across the board, which was a major issue with SOS - who despite landing our current stars also wasted a lot of picks.

Underage footy can be a bit of a crapshoot.

It’s far more important to invest heavily in a strong footy program and development streams.