Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

[Beer n Skittles]

Jesus that was terrible on my part, can i blame it on being Monday?

Could have been thinking of Lang

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Really enjoy reading and contributing to this thread - looking forward to doing so again this year.

We are now 44 games into the 66 game rebuild. Two thirds of the way through and the significant progress we've made in that time is clear for all to see. We still have a long way to go but a really strong foundation has now been set.

SOS really has done a terrific job since returning to the club - he came in with a clear plan and to his credit he has carried through exactly as advertised. You can nitpick and argue over the success of a particular trade here and there but the overall result cannot be questioned - it is positive and overwhelmingly so.

His comments post-draft gave a very clear insight into where we're at right now...

"We have had a lot of list changes over the past three years, 42 changes in three years and we need some stability in our list now, so I wouldn't imagine we would be making a lot of changes at the end of next season.

They're young boys who have got to build some chemistry now and synergy among themselves.

We said we would go to three drafts, we have gone to three drafts now and we need to build some stability and keep these boys and get them playing together."

Phase one of the rebuild is now complete. We've completely overhauled the list from one in no man's land to one that is widely acknowledged as being full of promise, and one of the best young lists in the competition.

Phase two as outlined by SOS above is now underway. We've got to get these kids playing together so that they can develop not just as individuals but as a unit. That's how you set yourself up not just for one tilt at a flag but rather for sustained success - Hawthorn and Geelong being the classic recent examples. Look at their lists in their respective periods of dominance and the importance of a core group playing together for an extended period becomes clear.

Which brings me to our list...

I think we can safely drop the players born in 1992 from this discussion now. None of Lamb, Mullett, O'Shea or Shaw are what can reasonably be considered youthful.

Having included 1992 last season we can keep 1993 this year before dropping them off in 2019.

With that in mind here is our youth (by birth year) as we head into 2018:

1993 - Docherty, Kerridge
1994 - Plowman, Byrne, Graham
1995 - Cripps, Lang
1996 - Marchbank, Pickett, Garlett
1997 - Weitering, Curnow, Kennedy, Silvagni, Cuningham, McKay, Glass-McCasker, McDaid
1998 - Petrevski-Seton, Williamson, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Kerr, Lebois
1999 - Dow, O'Brien, De Koning, Schumacher

This thread promises to be a busy one in 2018 - we've got 29 players to discuss! Of course, not all of the above will 'make it' but the club believes this is our core group. This is the group from which the nucleus of our next challenging side will form.

As a reference point here is where we sit with regards to AFL player ratings heading into 2018:

Patrick Cripps - 30
Sam Docherty - 79
Lachie Plowman - 221
Jacob Weitering - 230
Charlie Curnow - 296
Sam Kerridge - 312
SPS - 422
Jack Silvagni - 426
Darcy Lang - 433
Matthew Kennedy - 465
Nick Graham - 468
Zac Fisher - 494
Caleb Marchbank - 498
Ciaran Byrne - 503
David Cuningham - 546
Tom Williamson - 548
Jarrod Pickett - 582
Harrison Macreadie - 604
Harry McKay - 654
Cameron Polson - 704

Looking at the above I'm not seeing too many who will slide in 2018. Docherty will of course, with Graham likely and Kerridge a possibility, but outside those three I'm expecting gains across the board.

[1] Poll - Which players will be guaranteed best 22 come round 22 2018? I will await input from FlowersByIrene but I would think a refresh of the poll, with the above names all included, would be desirable.

[2] Who will fall & why?

[3] Who will rise?

I'd definitely love a refreshed Poll Jeremias. But in the past i have been unable to delete/refresh the poll short of editing names.

Maybe the thread tools have updated since i last tried but would love some clarification on how to update the poll. Cheers

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[Jeremias]

I'd definitely love a refreshed Poll Jeremias. But in the past i have been unable to delete/refresh the poll short of editing names.

Maybe the thread tools have updated since i last tried but would love some clarification on how to update the poll. Cheers

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I can definitely edit names and reset the votes. Not sure if I can do more than you as a mod but I would think as the person who started the poll you'd be able to do the same.

Regardless I'm happy to set it up for you if you'd like?

Not sure how many poll choices we are able to have but I can try add each player individually, otherwise I'll go as many as I can and have 'Other - X, Y Z' as the final poll option.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I can definitely edit names and reset the votes. Not sure if I can do more than you as a mod but I would think as the person who started the poll you'd be able to do the same.

Regardless I'm happy to set it up for you if you'd like?

Not sure how many poll choices we are able to have but I can try add each player individually, otherwise I'll go as many as I can and have 'Other - X, Y Z' as the final poll option.

Sounds good J, if you wouldnt mind, im happy for you to go ahead.

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[Jeremias]

Sounds good J, if you wouldnt mind, im happy for you to go ahead.

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No problem. Happy for me to drop the 1992 births off the list?

 

[Jeremias]

Update: We're only allowed to include 20 options in the poll.

FlowersByIrene let me know how you'd like it set up and I can add it.

 

[Captain Cripps]

My vote was - determined Carlton players
I’m sure that was option at bottom of page ...

 

[Jabba73]

Update: We're only allowed to include 20 options in the poll.

FlowersByIrene let me know how you'd like it set up and I can add it.

You can probably leave Doc off the list as he is not available for the season.

 

[CJMB]

Update: We're only allowed to include 20 options in the poll.

FlowersByIrene let me know how you'd like it set up and I can add it.

You can probably leave Doc off the list as he is not available for the season.

Perhaps one way to go about it is to not include Doc, McDaid (probably needs a couple of years to learn the game), JGM (just can't see him getting ahead of Macreadie, Weit, March, etc) and Graham (not sure anyone sees him as more than inside mid depth).

That leaves us with 25 options for the poll, still 5 too many. Can we assume that everyone will be voting for Cripps, Charlie, Weit, Samo and Marchy and not include them in the pol as they are certainties?...

 

[Jabba73]

That leaves us with 25 options for the poll, still 5 too many. Can we assume that everyone will be voting for Cripps, Charlie, Weit, Samo and Marchy and not include them in the pol as they are certainties?...

Not enough love for Plowman

 

[Jeremias]

Perhaps one way to go about it is to not include Doc, McDaid (probably needs a couple of years to learn the game), JGM (just can't see him getting ahead of Macreadie, Weit, March, etc) and Graham (not sure anyone sees him as more than inside mid depth).

That leaves us with 25 options for the poll, still 5 too many. Can we assume that everyone will be voting for Cripps, Charlie, Weit, Samo and Marchy and not include them in the pol as they are certainties?...

Well it depends on the question I guess.

If we're asking who is guaranteed to be there, which we have been, it doesn't make sense to omit those who we assume most would agree will be there.

Might be best to have the following options -

1. Plowman
2. Byrne
3. Cripps
4. Lang
5. Marchbank
6. Pickett
7. Garlett
8. Weitering
9. Curnow
10. Kennedy
11. Silvagni
12. Cuningham
13. McKay
14. SPS
15. Williamson
16. Fisher
17. Macreadie
18. Dow
19. O'Brien
20. Other - Kerridge, Graham, JGM, McDaid, Lebois, De Koning, Schumacher, Polson, Kerr

I agree we can leave Doc out of the poll this year.

 

[CJMB]

Well it depends on the question I guess.

If we're asking who is guaranteed to be there, which we have been, it doesn't make sense to omit those who we assume most would agree will be there.

Might be best to have the following options -

1. Plowman
2. Byrne
3. Cripps
4. Lang
5. Marchbank
6. Pickett
7. Garlett
8. Weitering
9. Curnow
10. Kennedy
11. Silvagni
12. Cuningham
13. McKay
14. SPS
15. Williamson
16. Fisher
17. Macreadie
18. Dow
19. O'Brien
20. Other - Kerridge, Graham, JGM, McDaid, Lebois, De Koning, Schumacher, Polson, Kerr

I agree we can leave Doc out of the poll this year.

Yeah, that's true. But to play devil's advocate here, would that scenario just result in most of the options having a 80 - 100% 'click' rate while no. 20 would be much lower? Also you'd think the no. 20 option would have many more selections in that format than any of the individual players would get on their own. I'm not really sure what the best solution is right now, this is just a bit of food for thought.

 

[Jeremias]

Interested to see how much 'youth' we take into the game on Friday.

I've got it as 11 for sure with another 3-4 possibly included as well.

Certainties:

1. Plowman
2. Byrne
3. Cripps
4. Marchbank
5. Weitering
6. Curnow
7. Kennedy
8. Silvagni
9. SPS
10. Fisher
11. Dow

Possible:

1. Lang
2. Garlett
3. Cuningham
4. McKay
5. O'Brien

Other - Macreadie, Polson, JGM, McDaid, Kerr, Lebois, TDK, Schumacher

Not considered (injury) - Docherty, Pickett, Williamson

 

[CJMB]

Interested to see how much 'youth' we take into the game on Friday.

I've got it as 11 for sure with another 3-4 possibly included as well.

Certainties:

1. Plowman
2. Byrne
3. Cripps
4. Marchbank
5. Weitering
6. Curnow
7. Kennedy
8. Silvagni
9. SPS
10. Fisher
11. Dow

Possible:

1. Lang
2. Garlett
3. Cuningham
4. McKay
5. O'Brien

Other - Macreadie, Polson, JGM, McDaid, Kerr, Lebois, TDK, Schumacher

Not considered (injury) - Docherty, Pickett, Williamson

I pretty much agree with all that. Does Lamb fall into the youth 'possible' list?

I think right now (at least for round 1) the senior certainties are Murph, Simmo, Kreuz, Ed, Wright, Casboult & Daisy. That may well change in the next couple of months or possibly even in a weeks time depending on how the kids go, particularly those non-talls spending some time forward.

That 11 & 7 leaves us with 4 remaining spots. Structure will play a part in it too, and doesn't help the case of Harry (or Macreadie but considering his lack of JLT I think he's got to show a fair bit in the NB's to earn a spot over someone else).

Will Bolts back some/any of Lang (if fit), Garlett, Cuningham, O'Brien or Lamb for those remaining spots? Or will we see something a little uninspiring like a bench made up of O'Shea, Mullett, Kerridge, Graham, Shaw, etc? Likely answer is probably a mix I guess.

How long until teams, FFS?!...

 

[FlowersByIrene]

By the way Blues Fans, I've been in the process of updating my spreadsheets and notes for the 2018 season and hope to get a post up before the bounce on Thursday.

The post will cover offseason acquisitions and growth from last season as well as projections for 2018.

I would note now one particular fact I found quite interesting is that all of our "mature" pickups, O'Shea, Shaw and Mullet are - technically - within my 'youth' category for the purposes of this review as while they are no longer within the 24 and under category, they, along with Jed Lamb and Sam Kerridge are part of our "alumni" group of players who were 24 or under at the the start of this rebuild wayy back in 2016.

Bolts and SOS were obviously flicking through this thread when deciding on off season acquisitions and wanted to get the numbers up

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[Jabba73]

By the way Blues Fans, I've been in the process of updating my spreadsheets and notes for the 2018 season and hope to get a post up before the bounce on Thursday.

The post will cover offseason acquisitions and growth from last season as well as projections for 2018.

I would note now one particular fact I found quite interesting is that all of our "mature" pickups, O'Shea, Shaw and Mullet are - technically - within my 'youth' category for the purposes of this review as while they are no longer within the 24 and under category, they, along with Jed Lamb and Sam Kerridge are part of our "alumni" group of players who were 24 or under at the the start of this rebuild wayy back in 2016.

Bolts and SOS were obviously flicking through this thread when deciding on off season acquisitions and wanted to get the numbers up

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

Glad you are continuing with this FBI, was worried that Trump had fired you.

 

[Metalcrusher]

By the way Blues Fans, I've been in the process of updating my spreadsheets and notes for the 2018 season and hope to get a post up before the bounce on Thursday.

The post will cover offseason acquisitions and growth from last season as well as projections for 2018.

I would note now one particular fact I found quite interesting is that all of our "mature" pickups, O'Shea, Shaw and Mullet are - technically - within my 'youth' category for the purposes of this review as while they are no longer within the 24 and under category, they, along with Jed Lamb and Sam Kerridge are part of our "alumni" group of players who were 24 or under at the the start of this rebuild wayy back in 2016.

Bolts and SOS were obviously flicking through this thread when deciding on off season acquisitions and wanted to get the numbers up

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

Kudos FBI thanks for your efforts mate

 

[Lawrence Angwin]

By the way Blues Fans, I've been in the process of updating my spreadsheets and notes for the 2018 season and hope to get a post up before the bounce on Thursday.

The post will cover offseason acquisitions and growth from last season as well as projections for 2018.

I would note now one particular fact I found quite interesting is that all of our "mature" pickups, O'Shea, Shaw and Mullet are - technically - within my 'youth' category for the purposes of this review as while they are no longer within the 24 and under category, they, along with Jed Lamb and Sam Kerridge are part of our "alumni" group of players who were 24 or under at the the start of this rebuild wayy back in 2016.

Bolts and SOS were obviously flicking through this thread when deciding on off season acquisitions and wanted to get the numbers up

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A cunning pair those two!


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[Jeremias]

I pretty much agree with all that. Does Lamb fall into the youth 'possible' list?

No, he misses out. Born in 1992 and it's pretty hard to argue he's part of our youth at 25, likewise Mullett, O'Shea and Shaw.

I think right now (at least for round 1) the senior certainties are Murph, Simmo, Kreuz, Ed, Wright, Casboult & Daisy. That may well change in the next couple of months or possibly even in a weeks time depending on how the kids go, particularly those non-talls spending some time forward.

You can add Jones to that I reckon.

Can't see him missing a game unless his form drops considerably from last year. Based on his JLT performances I'd say that doesn't look likely.

That 11 & 7 leaves us with 4 remaining spots. Structure will play a part in it too, and doesn't help the case of Harry (or Macreadie but considering his lack of JLT I think he's got to show a fair bit in the NB's to earn a spot over someone else).

It will be interesting to see how important structure is for us in 2018. I think we've tinkered with things a fair bit over the past few years in the name of development, which has often been to our detriment structurally.

2016 we went in almost exclusively with two rucks, which you just can't afford to do in the modern game unless they're also damaging up forward.

We then scrapped that but in 2017 I believe we carried an extra tall too many in most games, which you can largely attribute to the development of Macreadie.

I think this year we might finally see a more 'correct' structure. We've had at least one too few runners in the side over the past few years, I suspect that may change this season and I expect the difference to be very noticeable.

Will Bolts back some/any of Lang (if fit), Garlett, Cuningham, O'Brien or Lamb for those remaining spots? Or will we see something a little uninspiring like a bench made up of O'Shea, Mullett, Kerridge, Graham, Shaw, etc? Likely answer is probably a mix I guess.

All will get their opportunities this year for sure.

 

[Erko Blue]

Looking forward to your updates FBI.

Strange to think about Cripps as 'youth' he is already one of the premier footballers in the whole league.
Will also see some big gains from Curnow and Fisher.

 

[King Cripps]

Looking forward to your updates FBI.

Strange to think about Cripps as 'youth' he is already one of the premier footballers in the whole league.
Will also see some big gains from Curnow and Fisher.

And Marchy

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Player ratings gains are updated. They don’t explicitly show the change from last round last year so have to click on an individuals name to see the change after round 1. I’m gonna consider Simmo youf, he deserves a mention...

Charlie, fisher and sps all spiked. Simmo jumped into the top 100 again. Up to 90th. Crippa into the top 30 at 26.

Marchy and weits not real change.

Garlett went down...? :/

 

[Jeremias]

Preseason ratings:

Patrick Cripps - 30
Sam Docherty - 79
Lachie Plowman - 221
Jacob Weitering - 230
Charlie Curnow - 296
Sam Kerridge - 312
SPS - 422
Jack Silvagni - 426
Darcy Lang - 433
Matthew Kennedy - 465
Nick Graham - 468
Zac Fisher - 494
Caleb Marchbank - 498
Ciaran Byrne - 503
David Cuningham - 546
Tom Williamson - 548
Jarrod Pickett - 582
Harrison Macreadie - 604
Harry McKay - 654
Cameron Polson - 704

As at the conclusion of R1...

Patrick Cripps - 26 (+4)
Sam Docherty - 75 (+4)
Lachie Plowman - 208 (+13)
Jacob Weitering - 220 (+10)
Charlie Curnow - 255 (+41)
Sam Kerridge - 311 (+1)
Sam Petrevski-Seton - 389 (+33)
Jack Silvagni - 399 (+27)
Darcy Lang - 420 (+13)
Matthew Kennedy - 435 (+30)
Zac Fisher - 439 (+55)
Nick Graham - 442 (+26)
Ciaran Byrne - 456 (+47)
Caleb Marchbank - 457 (+41)
Jarrod Garlett - 479 (-4 from last rating at the conclusion of 2016)
David Cuningham - 498 (+48)
Tom Williamson - 499 (+49)
Jarrod Pickett - 531 (+51)
Harrison Macreadie - 546 (+58)
Harry McKay - 582 (+72)
Cameron Polson - 624 (+80)

No rating yet for Dow.

Not much to read into the ratings this week, huge jumps across the board (except for Garlett) which can largely be put down to the removal of all players who have exited the AFL system since the end of last season.

We'll start to get a clearer picture of where things stand from next week onward with that major adjustment now out of the way.

Expecting significant movement this year from Cripps, SPS, Curnow, Fisher and Marchbank.

 

[BluStreak]

Well done Doc.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Charlie's next 12 games are additive, expecting a meteoric rise into the top 100 given his recent history of scores around 15 frequently.