- Moderator
- #1,251
I think you needed to say “Round 1 picks” because this has somehow come across as every single pick in the draft for 5 years.
Well no, that would be unreasonable.
But with only 4 drafts to do it in (the '66' games) even factoring in trading in more 1sts (Gibbs, Henderson etc) and assuming 9 x 1sts over that time (which is roughly how many we ended up with) we'd basically need to get all 9 of them spot on (at least 100 gamer quality, and hopefully a few stars) with maybe room for 1 bust at most.
Even that would have left us with Cripps, Docherty, say [2 stars and 5 'OK' players] at the start of season 2020, with now all of our established older players (Murphy, Gibbs, Walker, Kruezer, Simpson) basically gone or about to be, so all we have really done there is maintain the status quo (replacing those older blokes who left with younger ones).
The damage of those drafts is still there in 2020, even assuming a strike rate of 7 AFL quality players from 8 x 1st round picks; we're basically left with 9 AFL quality players, including a few absolute guns, and another 30 odd blokes (less any players picked up in the 2nd and later rounds) who are not going to make it.
We were in a hole so massive, it was going to take a total reversal of the prior 7 drafts of near total misses, by having 4-5 drafts of near total hits, just to make up the ground we lost in 2008-2014.
The blue colored glasses led many to underestimate just how ****ed we were in 2015 (pre draft) list wise, and just how much work we had to do (and how much we had to nail those drafts from 2015-2019), simply to assemble a functional and competitive AFL list again.
For the record, from those 4 drafts/ 9 x 1sts picks we got McKay, Weitering, Walsh, Curnow (guns), Stocker (improving rapidly), Cunners, Dow, SPS and LOB. Cant complain with the first 4 (they're AA's or should be), the middle two are AFL quality 100 gamer territory at least (so OK) but the last 3 are looking like busts for us at the moment (SPS definitely was).
We need a strike rate as good for the blokes taken after those drafts (Durdin, Kemp etc) at least as good, if not better than the strike rate for the drafts before them. Kemp looks the goods so far, but the others don't have enough exposed form to tell.
I think we'll see a bit of them this year, and I'll be able to see if we've done enough, or are in need of a further list correction.




