Beyond the GF – Why the MCG Contract doesn’t pass the Stink Test

[phantom13]

I actually wouldnt mind spreading the love but SURELY if its going to NSW its not going to the SCG.

48 thou and **** all infrastructure to get to and from.

Stadium Australia as maligned as it is has to be a better option.

 

[Grin]

Insert Billy Maddison gif

Strong argument.
I guess you just stick to your imagined injustices, conspiracy theories and emotional responses.
I'll stick to the evidence.

 

[bh90210fan]

Again you're employing 2 goal posts at the same time
1: Victorian Vs Non-Vic clubs, and MCG tenants vs tenants of Marvel Stadium and GMBH stadium in finals which doesn't really have anything to do with the whole Vic vs non-Vic unbearable injustice argument.

This is the thing, you can't identify any evidence that non-Vic clubs are disadvantaged so you keep moving the goal posts, in this case arguing 2 opposed positions in the same post.

Lets define our terms, set the parameters and go from there.

I’m not moving any goalposts, I just want you to statistically prove your claim (as you say you’ve done plenty of times in the past), that non Victorian sides have been over represented in the top 8 / 4 / 2 since 1990.

 

[bh90210fan]

Strong argument.
I guess you just stick to your imagined injustices, conspiracy theories and emotional responses.
I'll stick to the evidence.

Honestly, you’ve chosen 1 random season and compared Collingwood vs WC to try and prove the total value of home ground advantage overall, for everyone, ever.

If I did that with Adelaide and Richmond in 2017 the advantage would be about 10 goals.

 

[Grin]

I’m not moving any goalposts, I just want you to statistically prove your claim (as you say you’ve done plenty of times in the past), that non Victorian sides have been over represented in the top 8 / 4 / 2 since 1990.

No worries. But you were also employing a totally different argument that MCG tenants get additional home ground advantages when it comes to finals against other Vic based clubs, which has nothing to do with the Vic based vs non-Vic based argument. It's more a Marvel and GMBH tenanted club vs MCG tenanted Club. So your point seems to be that even when I do prove that non Vic clubs have no advantage over Vic clubs your argument will be: "Yes they do because MCG tennant clubs have an arguable advantage over non MCG tennanted Victorian based clubs in finals".

 

[Grin]

Honestly, you’ve chosen 1 random season and compared Collingwood vs WC to try and prove the total value of home ground advantage overall, for everyone, ever.

If I did that with Adelaide and Richmond in 2017 the advantage would be about 10 goals.

You're really difficult to have a rational discussion with
I said it was a qualitative example and then provided a brief summary of the quantitative data for all grand finals played between Vic and non-Vic clubs and for MCG tennants and non Vic clubs.
Providing all the statistics for every single game in AFL history doesn't prove anything about grand finals played at the MCG.
See how you shift the goal posts all the time when the evidence doesn't support your victim narrative?

So I'll tell you what. When you come up with some evidence, and I mean actual evidence, not just a gut feeling that some unbearable injustice has been committed about your club, we'll talk.
At the moment you have not provided a shred of evidence that Victorian clubs have an advantage in the H&A season, or in the grand final.

As usual, rather than having a systematic, reason based discussion, which you know won't prove your conspiracy theory, you and the other whingers chose to ignore the evidence in favour of circular arguments based on unproven assumptions.

 

[doppleganger]

Over the journey of the AFL, the home team wins 35% more games than the away team.

Over the journey...be specific, what timeframe are you referencing. What actual stats are you referencing?

That is a significant advantage. ie. For every 5 games played, the home teams wins roughly 3.

Yes, home advantage exists....but many different theories abound as to what actually causes it.

Is it routine?
Is it crowd dominance and a positive impact on players?
Is it crowd influence and the influence on umpire?
Is ground familiarity a component?
Is it travel (or disruption of circadian rhythm) that is an influence?
Is it sleeping in your own bed?

And the stats in plenty of sports indicate that home advantage is declining, which makes sense when you think people have been working on ways to combat all the different elements.

And home advantage isnt a "travel" thing. Pies v Carlton have played 260 times and it is all square!!

Pies at VicPark won 64% of games
Pies at Princess Park won 35% of games.

At the G it is even, no "home" advantage at the G.

Most of those attending the grand final are NOT members of competing clubs, which is complete BS!

This feeds into the concept that it isnt a real "home" game.

Part of the "home advantage" is having a stadium full of your own supporters...as you say, this doesnt happen in the GF.

It also isnt a normal routine for ALL players.

It isnt a home game, and the stats agree with this as results are different from regular season games.

If competing club members shared the tickets just like with other venues in finals, then it would be a fairer outcome & reward the grass roots supporters, rather than hanger ons, including cricket members.

You love in lalala land.

You are getting hangers on EVERYWHERE you play it, as they provide the $$.

As per the 2021 GF, competing teams only received 12k tickets each.

Your "equitable" rotation will just prevent club members getting a ticket.

That isnt an improvement.

Adelaide make a GF, but it is Metricon's turn...Adelaide only get 7k tickets for members and it is a longer trip (many would drive to Melbourne, good luck driving to Gold Coast).

How do you think that is an "improvement"?

 

[Grin]

If I did that with Adelaide and Richmond in 2017 the advantage would be about 10 goals.

Here we go again. This has already been discussed just a few pages ago.
This is what you lot do. Run an argument, fail with it, then a few pages later reintroduce the same argument rinse and repeat.

It is almost embarassing how Adelaide fans keep referring to a game in April as if it has any relevance to performance in September.

Richmond were barley travelling then, they lost 4 on the trot including losing to Freo at the G.

They thumped Freo by 100+ in Perth on the eve of the finals....a 100 point turn around from back in May.

From all evidence we have the mentally weak Adelaide team would have capitulated anywhere they played.

Meanwhile, Tigers win GFs away from the G...they were the opposite of Adelaide, a mentally strong team lead by a generational talent (Dusty) who saved his best for the big occassion.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

So Victorian corporates & cricket members are more important than fairness

No doubt you are a MCC member who would prefer that his own team played grand finals on his home deck

Not a coincidence it's supporters of clubs whose home ground is the MCG who are arguing the hardest for it to remain that way to selfishly protect their interests even if inequitable.

Says much about you as people...

I'm not an MCC member.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Serious question - do Storm and Broncos supporters complain about the NRL GF in Sydney every year? Do they complain about having to travel every other week while the Rabbitohs and Sharks only have to travel across town?

 

[Demonic Ascent]

This actually isn't about MCG tennant win rates in the Gand Final. Even if it was the use of the last 2 Grand finals in Brisbane and Perth is a red herring because neither Richmond or Melbourne won against a Gabba or Optus Tennant.

The crux of the thread is how the interests of the Victorian Government and MCC and by extention certain Victorian clubs have been put ahead of the probity of competition itself. The corrupt and non commercial backdoor dealings where the AFL is beholden to a State Government who act as some benevolent puppet master who's goal is entiemrely self interest rather than fairness. Its a diabolical and disgraceful way to run a sporting competition.

Just saying it's corrupt and non commercial doesn't make it so no matter how many times you post it.

 

[bh90210fan]

You're really difficult to have a rational discussion with
I said it was a qualitative example and then provided a brief summary of the quantitative data for all grand finals played between Vic and non-Vic clubs and for MCG tennants and non Vic clubs.
Providing all the statistics for every single game in AFL history doesn't prove anything about grand finals played at the MCG.
See how you shift the goal posts all the time when the evidence doesn't support your victim narrative?

So I'll tell you what. When you come up with some evidence, and I mean actual evidence, not just a gut feeling that some unbearable injustice has been committed about your club, we'll talk.
At the moment you have not provided a shred of evidence that Victorian clubs have an advantage in the H&A season, or in the grand final.

As usual, rather than having a systematic, reason based discussion, which you know won't prove your conspiracy theory, you and the other whingers chose to ignore the evidence in favour of circular arguments based on unproven assumptions.

Ok Grin, I’ll give you a hand if it’s too much for you to just simply back up what you’ve been waffling.

overall, between 1990 - 2019, non Victorian sides have taken up 184 out of 491 ladder positions in total. Which is 37%.

since 1990, non Victorian sides have occupied

top 8 90 times / 240 = 37%

top 4 45 times / 120 = 37%

top 2 22 times / 60 = 37%

So statistically, non Victorian sides aren’t advantaged during the h&a at all. They are bang on where they should be.

Now, with this realisation will you keep your end of the deal and stop pretending that non Victorian sides get a leg up in the h&a?

And with this new found knowledge can you admit that having home finals gifted to you gives mcg tenants an unfair, unwarranted advantage over the rest of the teams in an otherwise statistically even competition?

 

[GWT6]

Serious question - do Storm and Broncos supporters complain about the NRL GF in Sydney every year? Do they complain about having to travel every other week while the Rabbitohs and Sharks only have to travel across town?

In general - no.

I've lived in Vic, NSW, Qld, and WA, and spent a lot of time working in SA.

There are big differences -

WA and SA have a serious inferiority complex, in general, those that grow up there believe that the Eastern States are out to get them.

Victorians believe they are better than those in other states.

NSW and Qld really don't give a shit about the other states.

This is why this thread exists - insecure West Australian and South Australians.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Over the journey of the AFL, the home team wins 35% more games than the away team. That is a significant advantage. ie. For every 5 games played, the home teams wins roughly 3.

Most of those attending the grand final are NOT members of competing clubs, which is complete BS! If competing club members shared the tickets just like with other venues in finals, then it would be a fairer outcome & reward the grass roots supporters, rather than hanger ons, including cricket members.

MCC & AFL Members make up ~36k tickets on GF day. The people who use those tickets are club members/supporters.

 

[Grin]

Ok Grin, I’ll give you a hand if it’s too much for you to just simply back up what you’ve been waffling.

overall, between 1990 - 2019, non Victorian sides have taken up 184 out of 491 ladder positions in total. Which is 37%.

since 1990, non Victorian sides have occupied

top 8 90 times / 240 = 37%

top 4 45 times / 120 = 37%

top 2 22 times / 60 = 37%

So statistically, non Victorian sides aren’t advantaged during the h&a at all. They are bang on where they should be.

Now, with this realisation will you keep your end of the deal and stop pretending that non Victorian sides get a leg up in the h&a?

And with this new found knowledge can you admit that having home finals gifted to you gives mcg tenants an unfair, unwarranted advantage over the rest of the teams in an otherwise statistically even competition?

So you insist there is no injustice and that non-Vic clubs have no unjust disadvantage in the home and away season. Victim narrative myth busted.
Now will you and the others stop with your whinging now.
(I bet you can't)

Of course you're maths is floored
Obviously there was no final 8 until the year 2000
There was a final 5 in 1990 and final 6 in 1991.
Also there weren't 18 teams in the comp for a lot of that time.
For example, there was 13 in 1990 slowly increasing over the years.
So if you did the maths properly you'd see the statistical disadvantage for Victorian clubs. This statistical disadvantage would be even more marked if you compared Melbourne based clubs with non Melbourne based clubs. Even more so if you compared MCG tenants with non-Vic clubs.
But Victorians aren't going to whinge endlessly about a little thing like that. We're made of sterner stuff.

Your lazy, sub par competent working is at least good enough to show that there is no injustice for non-Vic clubs.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

In general - no.

I've lived in Vic, NSW, Qld, and WA, and spent a lot of time working in SA.

There are big differences -

WA and SA have a serious inferiority complex, in general, those that grow up there believe that the Eastern States are out to get them.

Victorians believe they are better than those in other states.

NSW and Qld really don't give a sh*t about the other states.

This is why this thread exists - insecure West Australian and South Australians.

That's what I suspected. I mean it would be pretty ridiculous for the Storm to join a Sydney-based comp and then demand the GF be played at the MCG or AAMI Park every few years, no-one would take them seriously would they? And when the NRL continued a pre-existing agreement to have the GF in Sydney, I'm sure Melbournians wouldn't start calling out corruption and conspiracy and the NRL being controlled by the NSW government. I mean, it would take a pretty special case to start going down that rabbit hole.