Bluemour Discussion Thread VIII

[Malifice]

Gaff this year and Shiel the next, along with keeping our first pick in each draft should be priority. Hopefully there's some truth to the rumours...

We should keep our 1st this year. We want a mixed approach (grab F/A, but also be involved in the pointy end of the draft).

But next year our 1st should be very much on the table, along with our future 1st. For the right player.

End of 2019 we'll be down a LOT of experience. Thomas, Simpson, Lobbe, Rowe, ASOS will all be gone, leaving the entire list barring Murphy and Kruezer (and Casboult if he's still around) aged 19-25. Those young players will have (by then) had a few seasons development and gelling together (Bolton is using the word 'synergy' at present) as we stabilise the list and mature the group we drafted in 14-17.

The expectation is we are in the eight by 2020 and genuinely challenging from that time onwards.

We will be spending the next 2 years getting in 3-4 established guns to fill remaining list deficiencies. 1 from our 1st round this year, a free agent or two, and a likely 'big name' trade in 2019.

 

[Gethelred]

I really don't share the optimism with St Kilda. I don't think they are anywhere near it.

I understand they have as much if not more cap space then us, but surely we'd be a better choice of destination if the money is close.

It's difficult to be objective when you support one of the teams in discussion. If you'd ask a St Kilda supporter, that's what they'd say; he's the difference to them being top 8 next year and them being top 4, even top 2. If they can put forth an offer of equivalent money that we do, and he sees them as closer rather than less likely, then there's every chance he'll chose them.

It really depends on how well we and they go this year. We show progress, and they stagnate again, he's less of a chance to go to them. They start to smash a few sides, and put their best foot forth when playing away instead of being inconsistent as ****, while we go through a trying period on our way to 6 wins again, he's less likely to want to come here.

 

[Weiterbot23]

We should keep our 1st this year. We want a mixed approach (grab F/A, but also be involved in the pointy end of the draft).

But next year our 1st should be very much on the table, along with our future 1st. For the right player.

End of 2019 we'll be down a LOT of experience. Thomas, Simpson, Lobbe, Rowe, ASOS will all be gone, leaving the entire list barring Murphy and Kruezer (and Casboult if he's still around) aged 19-25. Those young players will have (by then) had a few seasons development and gelling together (Bolton is using the word 'synergy' at present) as we stabilise the list and mature the group we drafted in 14-17.

The expectation is we are in the eight by 2020 and genuinely challenging from that time onwards.

We will be spending the next 2 years getting in 3-4 established guns to fill remaining list deficiencies. 1 from our 1st round this year, a free agent or two, and a likely 'big name' trade in 2019.

We can always grab a couple of ASOSs or 31 year old Jordan Lewis types pretty cheaply to prop up the young fellas.

Simpson is the only significant player we will lose, but Cripps and Doc will be even more advanced in their leadership.

 

[Weiterbot23]

It's difficult to be objective when you support one of the teams in discussion. If you'd ask a St Kilda supporter, that's what they'd say; he's the difference to them being top 8 next year and them being top 4, even top 2. If they can put forth an offer of equivalent money that we do, and he sees them as closer rather than less likely, then there's every chance he'll chose them.

It really depends on how well we and they go this year. We show progress, and they stagnate again, he's less of a chance to go to them. They start to smash a few sides, and put their best foot forth when playing away instead of being inconsistent as ****, while we go through a trying period on our way to 6 wins again, he's less likely to want to come here.

There's money, there's how good the side is and then there's having to play with Carlisle.

We should win any FA against the saints off the back of that.

Plus imagine getting a call from Geary promoting the club, most AFL players (like supporters) wouldn't know who he is

 

[The Bighouse]

I posted something similar a little while back from a similar source unfortunately

Are we talking about a preference for basketball (thought that was mentioned?), a bad trainer or crap attitude, or holy than thou outlook?

 

[Bluey24]

Agreed Melbourne has an exciting, young list - but I reckon Bolton has reshaped our culture as far as to say that it's already superior to Melbourne

We'll catch them in no time - that crap about a group of players running to the AFLPA, instead of talking to their leaders / coaches, over a tough preseason camp spoke volumes about their culture

 

[Jimmae]

Given what SOS has done so far, I very much doubt we will pay overs for any player/FA

Which automatically limits us to the top 50 players in the league as practical FA signings.

Don't have any stats to back this, but hasn't SOS chased EVERY potential free agent / big fish in the last 2 years? If yes, then why does anyone think he'll act any different later this year ....

If anything, SOS is more likely to trade out high picks henceforth, given recent statements by the Club

SOS pays up to what he's modelled the player as being worth. If he gets the signing, he's pleased, but if he doesn't get it he's also pleased that he forced another team to overpay.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Are we talking about a preference for basketball (thought that was mentioned?), a bad trainer or crap attitude, or holy than thou outlook?

No idea. Someone who would know just said he didn’t currently have the attitude required to make it at the next level. Still a kid though, obviously so way too early to be writing him off

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Agreed Melbourne has an exciting, young list - but I reckon Bolton has reshaped our culture as far as to say that it's already superior to Melbourne

We'll catch them in no time - that crap about a group of players running to the AFLPA, instead of talking to their leaders / coaches, over a tough preseason camp spoke volumes about their culture

I agree that it's all between the ears for Melbourne from here on in but I am very bullish about their list/talent levels.

Took $18 about them to win the flag this year and I think that was a seriously crazy price. Midfield is talented, about to peak and has a hard edge. Elite ruckman, potential gun KPF in Hogan, very solid KPF in McDonald and a good mix of smaller forwards. Two of their backs in Hibberd & Jetta are elite in their positions, Lever has the potential to be.

They will be very good this year I think, huge flag threat. Will be interesting to see if they can cope with the pressure.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Kruez has a decent amount of swelling of his ankle. He thinks he will be ok to go.
And knowing him like i do he should be ok. After all he played the full year before last without being able to feel his foot.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

Frankly I’d rather he just sit out and get right, rather than risk it turning into a niggle that he carries all year...

 

[Malifice]

We can always grab a couple of ASOSs or 31 year old Jordan Lewis types pretty cheaply to prop up the young fellas.

Simpson is the only significant player we will lose, but Cripps and Doc will be even more advanced in their leadership.

Its not a question of replacing. Its a question of adding.

Look at how the Saints have stagnated post their list reset by not getting in star players over the past few years. Its starting to become a self fulfilling prophesy.

We have 2 years of list development and stabilisation to go, before the players we have drafted start to really go bang. We need to add to that list with experienced and elite matchwinners to take the next step over the next 2 years. Once we do so, we become a destination club and move into list management phase 3.

Phase 1: Rebuild phase. 3-4 year list rebuild. Maximise draft presence, trade out or release players as F/A. Obtain as many picks as possible, get in as much young talent as possible. Massive list turnover. Raid expansion clubs for deals. Retain a small core of experienced players to maintain the culture and avoid shellackings. Focus on a defensive mindset.
Phase 2: List stabilisation/ development phase, 2-3 year period of list stabilisation and getting the players playing together. Add offensive layers to game plan and build confidence. Identify any list management holes or weaknesses from Phase 1, and get in players to fill those holes. Identify and target elite players to fill gaps and add to the side.
Phase 3: Maintenence phase. Period of sustained success. Destination club status.

The Saints have stagnated at Phase 2, and arguably made too many misses during Phase 1.

Melbourne cut too savagely in Phase 1, and got trapped in it for several years due to drafting blunders and a wrecked culture. They turned it around during Roos tenure, and finally nailed serval picks specifically targetting players and trading down to get them (Hogan, Oliver). They're in Phase 2 at present, and look very likely to take the next step this year.

You have to get the foundations right (what we have done) and then you can move to a period of stabilisation and development or 'synergy' as Bolts calls it, and then add Star power and free agents to the list.

 

[Metalcrusher]

We should keep our 1st this year. We want a mixed approach (grab F/A, but also be involved in the pointy end of the draft).

But next year our 1st should be very much on the table, along with our future 1st. For the right player.

End of 2019 we'll be down a LOT of experience. Thomas, Simpson, Lobbe, Rowe, ASOS will all be gone, leaving the entire list barring Murphy and Kruezer (and Casboult if he's still around) aged 19-25. Those young players will have (by then) had a few seasons development and gelling together (Bolton is using the word 'synergy' at present) as we stabilise the list and mature the group we drafted in 14-17.

The expectation is we are in the eight by 2020 and genuinely challenging from that time onwards.

We will be spending the next 2 years getting in 3-4 established guns to fill remaining list deficiencies. 1 from our 1st round this year, a free agent or two, and a likely 'big name' trade in 2019.

Question we have to ask ourselves honestly is ... this ...

How good do we rate our list?
Is it one or two players away ... is there such a thing as an ultimate list .....??

Would another First rounder plus a free agent, plus a father son get us there .... where is there?

Do we use all other picks this year as currency?

Interesting times.

 

[Gethelred]

I agree that it's all between the ears for Melbourne from here on in but I am very bullish about their list/talent levels.

Took $18 about them to win the flag this year and I think that was a seriously crazy price. Midfield is talented, about to peak and has a hard edge. Elite ruckman, potential gun KPF in Hogan, very solid KPF in McDonald and a good mix of smaller forwards. Two of their backs in Hibberd & Jetta are elite in their positions, Lever has the potential to be.

They will be very good this year I think, huge flag threat. Will be interesting to see if they can cope with the pressure.

I'm the complete opposite; I think they're going to plateau badly, due almost entirely to their inability to put enough of their dominance on the scoreboard.

Everything you say is correct, but the most they'll get a good side by is five goals or less. You can't be all over a good team for a half of footy and only be 20-30 points up, eventually they'll work themselves back into it and start to string goals together. This was their issue last year, and it'll continue to be an issue as long as they continue getting distracted by demonstrating their dominance via alpha male bullshit instead of on the scoreboard.

 

[Jimmae]

I'm the complete opposite; I think they're going to plateau badly, due almost entirely to their inability to put enough of their dominance on the scoreboard.

Everything you say is correct, but the most they'll get a good side by is five goals or less. You can't be all over a good team for a half of footy and only be 20-30 points up, eventually they'll work themselves back into it and start to string goals together. This was their issue last year, and it'll continue to be an issue as long as they continue getting distracted by demonstrating their dominance via alpha male bullshit instead of on the scoreboard.

I reckon their biggest problem is that they don't have anyone with a difficult speed/strength combination in midfield. It was supposed to be Petracca but he's unbelievably soft for someone who stands at 6'1" and 90+ kgs.

 

[LordLucifer]

Jack is a marginally better player than Ben.
Ben also has a shit attitude.

Source: Ben’s teammate.

Maybe not the thing some of you want to hear but I feel like others might want to know.

This cracks me up actually.

A little while back, every man and his dog on this board were saying we don't need to draft any more KPF's because we have the next Silvagni coming on top of what we already have.

I argued that until such time that he was at the club and proven himself, we should be getting hold of every piece of talent up forward we can. I also suggested that this next Silvagni may not develop into a top line player or may not want to keep playing footy or many other factors that could come into play. Naturally no-one agreed with me.

Now we have this piece of info to contend with .............

 

[Soapy V]

Question we have to ask ourselves honestly is ... this ...

How good do we rate our list?
Is it one or two players away ... is there such a thing as an ultimate list .....??

Would another First rounder plus a free agent, plus a father son get us there .... where is there?

Do we use all other picks this year as currency?

Interesting times.

Our list is extremely talented and has most if not all positions covered. It's now about finalising it and importantly getting the best out of it.

I believe we need to add another 5-6 talented kids minimum this year along with a very good FA and a big fish. That's "perfect world". At the end of 2019 I would be going all out for a Josh Kelly or similar. By then our kids are ready to step up and someone of his talent just tops it off

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

This was their issue last year, and it'll continue to be an issue as long as they continue getting distracted by demonstrating their dominance via alpha male bullshit instead of on the scoreboard.

Jordan Lewis likes this. Can't believe that bloke has weaseled his way into a cushy media gig (actually I can believe it given the state of the football media landscape), but hey he's a dad now.

 

[Gethelred]

I reckon their biggest problem is that they don't have anyone with a difficult speed/strength combination in midfield. It was supposed to be Petracca but he's unbelievably soft for someone who stands at 6'1" and 90+ kgs.

They keep trying to turn Petracca into a midfielder when he's a medium forward flanker with strength. Similar to Billings, he's not going to be able to get that kind of tank required to play midfield.

They really just need to find a way to make the playing list realise just how badly they're stuffing up by trying to bully their opponents instead of winning. It's a trend in the AFL at the moment, sides who think they're contending or a chance getting in their opposition's face, with the media alongside for 'like a bit of biffo' reasons. I'm not part of a professional AFL club, nor do I have background in one, but as far as I'm concerned that's not having ticker or mongrel at all.

Early Hodge had mongrel because he stayed on the field to guide his team to a grand final win with a broken rib. Lenny Hayes had mongrel because you were damned if you got there first, he'd get the ball. Max Rooke had mongrel because you knew he was behind you without looking, because he slammed you into the deck harder than you'd ever been got before five minutes ago, and again five minutes before that.

That's what Melbourne need; a willingness to win that extends more than just wanting it. They have to need to win, crave it, and they have to be able to commit in such a way as to look at the niggle and scoff at it as irrelevant.

 

[Metalcrusher]

They keep trying to turn Petracca into a midfielder when he's a medium forward flanker with strength. Similar to Billings, he's not going to be able to get that kind of tank required to play midfield.

They really just need to find a way to make the playing list realise just how badly they're stuffing up by trying to bully their opponents instead of winning. It's a trend in the AFL at the moment, sides who think they're contending or a chance getting in their opposition's face, with the media alongside for 'like a bit of biffo' reasons. I'm not part of a professional AFL club, nor do I have background in one, but as far as I'm concerned that's not having ticker or mongrel at all.

Early Hodge had mongrel because he stayed on the field to guide his team to a grand final win with a broken rib. Lenny Hayes had mongrel because you were damned if you got there first, he'd get the ball. Max Rooke had mongrel because you knew he was behind you without looking, because he slammed you into the deck harder than you'd ever been got before five minutes ago, and again five minutes before that.

That's what Melbourne need; a willingness to win that extends more than just wanting it. They have to need to win, crave it, and they have to be able to commit in such a way as to look at the niggle and scoff at it as irrelevant.

Too busy at Buller.

 

[LordLucifer]

Our list is extremely talented and has most if not all positions covered. It's now about finalising it and importantly getting the best out of it.

I believe we need to add another 5-6 talented kids minimum this year along with a very good FA and a big fish. That's "perfect world". At the end of 2019 I would be going all out for a Josh Kelly or similar. By then our kids are ready to step up and someone of his talent just tops it off

I agree with most of this, we do have some solid talent on the list and it is all a waiting game right now whilst they bulk up their bodies and build up their tanks.

If this year's draft pool is as good as most drat watchers are saying, we should pick up even more solid talent to top up the list.

I'm not so sure about players like Kelly though, he is very good, I acknowledge that fact but there is nothing to stop any one of our existing young players or someone from this year's draft being his equivalent. In fact I'm bullish enough to suggest that we don't need Kelly or Shiel or Sloane etc if these young players develop as expected (and I'm quite sure one will).

Besides, if Gaff is worth $800-1mil, the salary cap cost for any one of those big names is going to be quite exorbitant.

I'd rather put my faith & salary cap into the youth we already have and the youth we will pick up at the end of the year.

 

[Metalcrusher]

So invest in the draft as SOS has done the last 3 years ......

As your were peeps.

Nothing like a discussion killer Shiek ... FFS

 

[Soapy V]

I agree with most of this, we do have some solid talent on the list and it is all a waiting game right now whilst they bulk up their bodies and build up their tanks.

If this year's draft pool is as good as most drat watchers are saying, we should pick up even more solid talent to top up the list.

I'm not so sure about players like Kelly though, he is very good, I acknowledge that fact but there is nothing to stop any one of our existing young players or someone from this year's draft being his equivalent. In fact I'm bullish enough to suggest that we don't need Kelly or Shiel or Sloane etc if these young players develop as expected (and I'm quite sure one will).

Besides, if Gaff is worth $800-1mil, the salary cap cost for any one of those big names is going to be quite exorbitant.

I'd rather put my faith & salary cap into the youth we already have and the youth we will pick up at the end of the year.

I don't rate Gaff at anywhere near that level. Go the youth and target Kelly at end of 2019

 

[90N90S]

I posted something similar a little while back from a similar source unfortunately

Maybe it's all a plan like the CC drink driving thing or whatever he was meant to have done.

 

[Pafloyul]

Our tactics in regards to free agents should depend on a lot of things; how strong the draft is, how high our draft picks are, can we squeeze out a free agent without having to trade for him, if not, what we'll need to give up, etc....? One thing is for sure, I've never been keen on giving up the next big thing for the current model because you never know the limits of what you are giving up. It just rubs me up the wrong way as it goes against my intuitive instincts.

 

[Blue__Balls]

There is going to be knockers on whatever FA/RFA we try for, I'm sure the biggest knock on his games thus far is his defensive question marks, and possibly the ability for him to hit the scoreboard. I think these thing Bolts can iron out and has an extremely high platform to build from, to polish off his game so to speak. From highlights (and I have now watched a few WC games via u tube), courage is not an issue.

Herald Sun article tomorrow - "Carlton make bold play for Hannah Mouncey".