Rumour Bluemour Discussion thread

[slashin_velvet]

If sydney have academy player needs, I dont see why we couldnt do some sort of package deal using later picks (points bait) for Tom Mitchell. Our second and third if we finish second last will be circa 20 and 38, which values it at about the same value as pick 10 or 11. With their other players coming through, he may be one of the more expendable players (regardless of the fact that he's a very good player for them).

Turn pick 2 into a couple mid first rounders. A few other trades of older players, and we'll be fine.

 

[ferrisb]

I reckon every club would be "looking" (make that wishing they could) at doing a deal like that but it is hard to believe that it will ever happen unless there are some extreme circumstances that forced it.

GWS is a prime candidate on a few fronts

1) It has three first round draft picks
2) It is probably looking for super top end talent. It already has a NEAFL side littered with mid-late first rounders that can't get a game
3) It has a huge Academy pool this year, including 4 kids in the AFL Academy squad and 2 kids that made AA as underage last year. Having picks littered through the first round means they are less likely to get value on Academy discounts.

Point 3 extrapolated - Lets's say GWS end up with picks 7 (Coll), 11 (GWS) and 15 (Geel). If a GWS kid received a bid with ANY pick between 4 and 15, GWS would be getting less of a discount than if they trade those picks out for later picks (a few of discount losses are marginal, admittedly). Not going to happen, but IF GWS could get enough points to cover picks 7, 11 & 15, by trading they could end up with pick #2 and 3 elite kids. Rather than 7, 11, 15 & a second rounder and a bunch of late picks they won't use on standard selections...

For the record if we sent our 2nd & 3rd rounders (assuming we finish #17 and before any compo picks), we would swap 20 & 38 for pick 11.... We paid a lot more than that for the Charlie pick last year.

BUT all this depends on where Academy kids are rated. So it's all on hold until that is known.

 

[Blue Pulse]

Not sure I totally agree on this.
We have a hole at KPF now, but we picked up McKay (10), Curnow (12) and Jack last year. It has been reported the club see McKay and Curnow as our future key forwards.
Down back we have Weitering, Plowman and JGM.
So we have recruited really well for the future, in terms of KPPs, and just now need to hope they develop well.
I'd say midfield is still a hole. As shown the other night, you need depth and depth and then some depth.

As an aide, Redpath would be OK but wouldnt pay much

I don't think he would demand much but would be a stop gap until our younger boys are ready for the bigger bodies. Agree we need midfield depth but also require a spine to carry it. Levi is double teamed each week as we have no other targets and if we do hit someone up they are usually having a shot from a boundary pocket

 

[slashin_velvet]

Dont forget that Freo will likely be trading for McCarthy (unless the rumours of having hogan stictched up have any credibility), so GWS can expect another first rounder to get that done (which at freos current rate is looking more like pick 5 than 15)

 

[ferrisb]

Not sure I totally agree on this.
We have a hole at KPF now, but we picked up McKay (10), Curnow (12) and Jack last year. It has been reported the club see McKay and Curnow as our future key forwards.
Down back we have Weitering, Plowman and JGM.
So we have recruited really well for the future, in terms of KPPs, and just now need to hope they develop well.
I'd say midfield is still a hole. As shown the other night, you need depth and depth and then some depth.

As an aide, Redpath would be OK but wouldnt pay much

That's a good start, 1981, but I say we need more.

Those six definitely make excellent young CANDIDATES for FF, CHF, 3rd Fwd, CHB, FB, 3rd Back.

If 4+ of those make it to auto 22 level, I will be VERY happy.

I would like 10 decent KPPs (current best 22 and talented youngsters) on a list to ensure enough make the cut and you have decent depth once someone gets injured.

Not to mention even if EVERY one of those players makes the cut (very unlikely), it will be years before McKay is monstering defenders, Silvagni isn't ragdolled at AFL level and JGM can hold his own against the elite forwards...

 

[HARKER]

A deeper draft? I liked most of the first 100 picked last year so that's great news

Talk was that the top dozen or so were head and shoulders above the rest, but even that may depend on which recruiter you talk to.
There was even talk that the draft may be done by the time it hits picks in the 40's..........and we ended up with 70.

The 2003 draft though looks frightening in terms of talent and we've had plenty of time to gauge that. Wouldn't want to see one of those drafts come up in the next couple of years.

 

[ShanDog]

There are plenty of ways to turn a high pick into two top 10 picks. Just have a look back to our trading last year to see how something like that can be achieved through multi-staged trades.

 

[HARKER]

I'm sure SOS is 'looking' to do that, but is it realistic?

You may it realistic and it can realistically only be executed with the one club; GWS

We've already discussed this notion in the List Management thread and the theory just makes for common sense......but that could easily change.

 

[Blue__Balls]

GWS should also pick up another first rounder for McCarthy - can't see them retaining him for another year out of spite.

GC likely to nab at least one more first rounder, possibly 2-3 depending on the movements of Prestia and O'Meara.

Hypothetical Ladder
Sydney
Hawthorn
West Coast
Bulldogs
Geelong
Fremantle
North Melbourne
GWS
Gold Coast
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Collingwood
Melbourne
St Kilda
Carlton
Essendon
Brisbane

Relevant Hypothetical Trades
Essendon to receive pick 3 (either Priority or FA, AFL will want to give them a leg-up).
McCarthy to Fremantle for Pick 14 and 2017 first rounder.
Not sure how Prestia gets to Melbourne...they've already traded their first rounder.
O'Meara to Essendon (box seat with early picks and cash in the bank) for Picks 3 and 21.

GC finish with picks 3, 6, 11 and 21.
GWS finish with 7, 12, 14 and 15.


Would we do Pick 4 for 6 and 11?
How about for 7 and 12?
Would GC and GWS entertain those trades?

Possible to then get 14 from GWS for 22 and 40 (100+ academy points in their favour)?

Would position us with 6, 11, 14 and something in the 50s from the Dogs.

 

[Matty411]

Not sure I totally agree on this.
We have a hole at KPF now, but we picked up McKay (10), Curnow (12) and Jack last year. It has been reported the club see McKay and Curnow as our future key forwards.
Down back we have Weitering, Plowman and JGM.
So we have recruited really well for the future, in terms of KPPs, and just now need to hope they develop well.
I'd say midfield is still a hole. As shown the other night, you need depth and depth and then some depth.

As an aide, Redpath would be OK but wouldnt pay much

Agree, but think we might have another good crack at Tomlinson if he's still keen and possibly one of Prestia/Titchell if they're keen. Otherwise, we should be aiming to secure 2-3 top 20 midfield prospects.

 

[HARKER]

GWS have three first rounders this year I believe (or at least two, my reading of their trade period last year is they should have Geelongs, Collingwoods and their own first rounder, but I may be wrong)

That's right. They currently hold three and will likely get another one for McCarthy.

They could easily be holding 4 first rounders and I feel we may have a leg up in negotiations given what came about with Tomlinson, last year.

 

[Iamcarlton]

I don't think he would demand much but would be a stop gap until our younger boys are ready for the bigger bodies. Agree we need midfield depth but also require a spine to carry it. Levi is double teamed each week as we have no other targets and if we do hit someone up they are usually having a shot from a boundary pocket

One things for sure he's tough and would make a few of his teammates walk a bit taller the big redpath . Reckon he's better than stop gap too think he's under rated or better than most think .

 

[FlowersByIrene]

We could also get "two picks in the top 10"

By trading our first for GWS's highest draft pick, their second and a player. Then trade their second and our second to GC for their highest pick.

End up with two picks in the top 10 and a player from our first and second

 

[Red Bull]

We're likely to hold pick 1 or 2 in the PSD, and have a squillion in SC room spare.

I'd be more than happy to frontload the heck out of a contract and get Mitchell to Carlton. They can have our second round pick (20 odd). It's unders, but **** it.

Mitchell is going to be a gun, is exactly the player we need, and fits the age profile at 22.

Want.

I like your thinking re the PSD but it seems that these days it's just about redundant .
Players/managers just won't do it .
Players don't want to shit on their current team mates and managers don't want to get offside with the club’s so as to preserve relationships for future dealings .

 

[Malifice]

We could also get "two picks in the top 10"

By trading our first for GWS's highest draft pick, their second and a player. Then trade their second and our second to GC for their highest pick.

End up with two picks in the top 10 and a player from our first

Pick 1 is worth 3000 points. Those points broken down that equates to (say) picks 7 and 9. I'd happily swap pick 1 for picks 7 and 9 (or around that mark), and then ontrade 9 to the Swans for Mitchell.

He is exactly the player we need, and we still get a pick in the top 10.

Then package up pick 20 odd with a player (Levi perhaps) and look for another top 10 pick from a side just outside the 8.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Pick 1 is worth 3000 points. Those points broken down that equates to (say) picks 7 and 9. I'd happily swap pick 1 for picks 7 and 9 (or around that mark), and then ontrade 9 to the Swans for Mitchell.

He is exactly the player we need, and we still get a pick in the top 10.

Then package up pick 20 odd with a player (Levi perhaps) and look for another top 10 pick from a side just outside the 8.

Id loveeee to have Mitchell at the Blues, but I just cant see him leaving, feel we missed the boat.

Prestia or Mayes the options floating around now, obviously more players will want to leave by trade period but we dont know right night.

Im keen to focus on the draft.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Also what are peoples thoughts on this.

- Load up on the 2017 draft at the expense of the 2018?

Should we trade out 2018 first for high picks in this years draft.

Serves two purposes (1) banks on us increasing out ladder position dramatically next year and hopefully getting better value than what we would have if we kept it, and (2) tightenning our list profile so that we have more top end talent peaking in the twighlight of the Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer years.

We could have Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cunningham and 3-5 first round picks from next year running around at 21-22-23 when Murphy is like 32 and Gibbs and Kreuzer closer to 30

 

[slashin_velvet]

I think Mitchell may also be one of those players who is a good FA target in 4 years time when were about to challenge and sydney are falling away as buddys contract chokes them.

 

[Matty411]

Id loveeee to have Mitchell at the Blues, but I just cant see him leaving, feel we missed the boat.

Prestia or Mayes the options floating around now, obviously more players will want to leave by trade period but we dont know right night.

Im keen to focus on the draft.

Mayes a very strong possibility, you'd think (to leave) as he continues to fail to impress. Another season like last and his value won't be more than a third rounder... in which case I would be happy to part with one of ours for him.

 

[ParapMarkets]

I reckon every club would be "looking" (make that wishing they could) at doing a deal like that but it is hard to believe that it will ever happen unless there are some extreme circumstances that forced it.

I actually think it is very doable. Suns also have 2 first round picks (Demons and their own), academy points system does offer some interesting possibilities, especially if the Suns academy player is rated around say pick 5. If that were the case they would jump at the chance to trade their first 2 picks for our first.

 

[smashbox gill]

Which club would have two top 10 picks and then be prepared to trade them ??.

I think GWS maybe depending on where there academy players sit. They have what 3-4 picks in the first round (GWS 1st pick, Geelongs pick, Collingwood pick, Freo first pick - McCarthy trade). Say there academy kids which are supposed to be top 5 prospects are all bid around pick 5, they would be forced to use their first pick and also dilute their following picks to cover the points. What they could do if they trade with us is get a pick before any of their academy players are bid on and pick up one of the best non academy players in the draft, then use their remaining later picks to pick up their academy players. This way it would allow them to pick up say a Petrovski-Seton before any academy players get bid on, and then pick up their academy guns.

I think this would be another win win situation between us and GWS.

 

[HBF]

We're likely to hold pick 1 or 2 in the PSD, and have a squillion in SC room spare.

I'd be more than happy to frontload the heck out of a contract and get Mitchell to Carlton. They can have our second round pick (20 odd). It's unders, but **** it.

Mitchell is going to be a gun, is exactly the player we need, and fits the age profile at 22.

Want.

Reckon that second round pick might be used on Tomlinson if we go there again.
He was keen last year, so I can't imagine what would have changed.
And once Cameron comes back he'll be hard pressed to get consistent game time with the Giants.

 

[Matty411]

Reckon that second round pick might be used on Tomlinson if we go there again.
He was keen last year, so I can't imagine what would have changed.
And once Cameron comes back he'll be hard pressed to get consistent game time with the Giants.

Has started out good (in our favour) if this is to be an option again this October, with Tomlinson dropped to the NEAFL. Absolutely dominated in response, so will be interesting to see how he goes. I get the feeling that a trade to us is more likely the more he plays in the seconds/plays poorly.

 

[HBF]

Has started out good (in our favour) if this is to be an option again this October, with Tomlinson dropped to the NEAFL. Absolutely dominated in response, so will be interesting to see how he goes. I get the feeling that a trade to us is more likely the more he plays in the seconds/plays poorly.

Yeah I think so.
I wouldn't mind betting the Giants "first" forwardline would be Cameron, Stuart and one of Patton and Lobb.
It's entirely possible that Patton could get squeezed out as well, as Lobb is more athletic and more equipped to go into the ruck as well.

 

[F_therest]

Definitely, GWS is at the opposite stage of the list build to us- they don't need to bar any deeper, just high end quality they'll be after.

This is the only realistic option but quite plausible actually for gws to give 2 of theirs say pick 10 and 12 for our pick 3