Blues Quick Small Fwds...

[mdc]

Which Melbourne small forwards did well against us?

Petterd, Green and Dunn accounted for 9 of their 12 goals, and all are more like mid-sized leading forwards. Bennell was awful. Not sure who else they have that would qualify.

As for Carlton's, stick Harry on Yarran, Toovey on Gartlett and Shaw on Betts. With possible exception of some unkind bounces, none of those 3 match-ups are even remotely worrying.

As for around the ground, Judd and Gibbs are the two guys we have to really try to contain. Judd is obviously devistating with his clearance work, and Gibbs is a poor man's Pendlebury in terms of almost always choosing the right option and making his team-mates better.

Murphy, Simpson, Scotland and the rest of the one-way brigade are only really a worry against side that don't apply pressure.

 

[Ron]

I do wish we had a genuine tagger to take out one of Carlton's dangerous forward running mids like Murphy.

Why bother? Murphy only runs one way. Can't imagine they'll get enough of the ball for Murphy to make a difference. He never gets his own ball, he waits for someone to do the hard work whilst he runs forward and gets cheap touches.

If our mids are on top Murphy's supply will be cut off.
No point tagging Judd as he is too good to be tagged.
Gibbs is a sheepdog that runs around loose like Bowden in the backline, hopefully we put someone on him to make him accountable.

 

[Syphoncom]

your preaching to the choir brother, I have a group of mates who are blues supporters, I use to think they were joking when they claimed to have a better forward line and defense then ours. Midfield i get but forwards and backs???

Seriously, the "average plodders","cheap possies" and "loose man" excuses are beyond reasoning. We've statistically got one of the best defenses going round. The big forwards always rate our backmen as the hardest to play on. Our forward line although inconsistent is up there for most shots on goal.

We have young talented talls and smalls. We undoubtedly have the most dangerous group of small in the comp. How people cant see that is beyond belief. yea we rate them highly but if your off you game as a defender for one second against them its all over.

Well, pretty much. I still don't see how they think they're going to win. I still believe our midfield is equal to any other in the competition. Yes every club has off weeks (Geelong case in point), but if you go on consistency I feel we've played fanstastically well through the midfield.

In fact, inaccuracy has cost us dearly and regardless of whether we'd be 5-0 or 4-1, our % would be significantly higher also.

Our backline is sublime, can't see any rational arguments against this. Nicks a general, Harry is (yes, I'm a Pie.. but still) imo a contender for most important defender in the comp, Shaw amazing run off the backline. The rest are able to be played on a horses for courses basis, with Presti still a fantastic defender (just not on Buddy ).

So somehow their incredibly Fevola-free forward line is going to run riot and kick a winning 15+ goals next week. Sorry how? And on top of this, how are these players somehow Gods, and better than our forwards?

Forgive any misunderstandings or lack of knowledge, but I'll try

Yarran/Betts/O'hailpin? (Garlett on 2 games only) These are the guys..

Chris Yarran
Average Disp: 10.6
Average Goals: 1.8
Average Tackles: 3.4
Average I50's: 2.0

Leon Davis: So Neon has been sub-par. Injury? Whatever, some have called for a drop/rest, something is wrong right?
Average Disp: 11.6
Average Goals: 1.6
Average Tackles: 5.4
Average I50's: 3.6

Eddie Betts
Average Disp: 15.6
Average Goals: 1.6
Average Tackles: 3.4
Average I50's: 1.4

Alan Didak
Average Disp: 22.8
Average Goals: 1.6
Average Tackles: 3.4
Average I50's: 4.8

Setanta O'hAilpin
Average Disp: 10.8
Average Goals: 2.2
Average Tackles: 1.2
Average I50's: 2.2
Average Marks: 4.4
FA: 1.2

Travis Cloke
Average Disp: 14.4
Average Goals: 1.6
Average Tackles: 1.8
Average I50's: 4.0
Average Marks: 7.6
FA: 0.2

Ok, so these numbers don't mean much, but what I'm trying to understand is how these numbers translate to poor forward performance?

We clearly have better forward pressure, better marking options, our defense more solid and rebounding, and our forwards are better abled at transition through the midfield.

Analying the competition is important in understanding how our tackling (we are #1 in the competition in both raw tackles and tackle differentials between opponent/us), our pressure and our defense has held up and in comparison with other teams.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Carlton
Wins:

Richmond [0-5] (64 point percentage booster for Carlton)
Adelaide [0-5]
Geelong [Decent]

Losses:
Essendon [1-4] (Their only win, a team we beat by 11 goals)
Brisbane
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Collingwood
Wins:

Bulldogs [3-2] (Pre-seasons Premiers, near favourites for flag)
Melbourne [3-2] (Clearly not terrible, beat Brisbane by 10 goals - the only other team to beat the Bulldogs and the team that thrashed ... CARLTON! - Yes I know scissors/paper/rock doesn't apply, but meh)
Essendon [1-4]
Hawthorn

Losses:

St Kilda [4-1]

^Need we say more about this loss. Horrible accuracy and against a team that went what, 27/29 over 2009/2010 season start?

---------------------------------------------------------------------


Someone rationalise how they're a good side? 1 win and it goes to their heads...

 

[Zahki]

Cloke really needs more hauls like he did against Essendon. Being outscored by a dud like O'Hailpin is just embarrassing. Luckily if Presti comes back next week O'Hailpin won't be adding any more to his tally that's for sure, he'll be lucky to get a touch.

 

[Syphoncom]

Agreed, but he also plays out to the wing quite a bit which can be important and ofcourse depends on the quality of the opposition. His marks and then kicks into the F50 are just as important as kicking goals (or have the potential to be), but you're definitely right.

I'd still like Carlton to play against the Saints and the Dogs while we take Adelaide and Richmond to the cleaners.

Cloke could kick 10.98, it'd still be 10 goals. But that is why I put in those marks as well, his potential is definitely there, just needs to convert. Fact is, we shouldn't be scared of their little forward line like it is being portrayed.

 

[Zahki]

Gunna disagree with him delivering the ball inside 50 being important. Most of the time what he does is wheels around, slams it on the boot and bombs it in high. Which then results in the opposition defense marking it more often than not because freaking Leon Davis is down there playing the role Cloke should be.

On the other hand you can see what a massive, massive difference makes when you've got a good kick like Dayne Beams delivering the ball inside 50 to Clokes advantage, and Cloke being a great mark will grab it.

Thats why it boggles my mind that it's on Cloke to kick it in so often when we need him so badly in there doing the marking himself. Let the midfield do their job and deliver it in to him, and he has games like that.

 

[Syphoncom]

Yeah, I mean they have the potential. His marking ability and then kicking either long to Fraser (hold it please) or Jolly/Dawes with Didak/Medhurst/Davis crumbing in theory should be good.

Unfortunately you're 100% right he just swirls around and lets rip. If he could manage to kick just 0.5-1 goals a quarter on average and still push up and take a mark 55-75 out I still think it's fairly important and gives him something that a lot of other forwards don't have. That marking ability should put pressure on the backman, but unfortunately as of yet it hasn't been that good, no

 

[davis_756]

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Carlton
Wins:

Richmond [0-5] (64 point percentage booster for Carlton)
Adelaide [0-5]
Geelong [Decent]

Losses:
Essendon [1-4] (Their only win, a team we beat by 11 goals)
Brisbane
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Collingwood
Wins:

Bulldogs [3-2] (Pre-seasons Premiers, near favourites for flag)
Melbourne [3-2] (Clearly not terrible, beat Brisbane by 10 goals - the only other team to beat the Bulldogs and the team that thrashed ... CARLTON! - Yes I know scissors/paper/rock doesn't apply, but meh)
Essendon [1-4]
Hawthorn

Losses:

St Kilda [4-1]

^Need we say more about this loss. Horrible accuracy and against a team that went what, 27/29 over 2009/2010 season start?

---------------------------------------------------------------------


Someone rationalise how they're a good side? 1 win and it goes to their heads...

Putting things into perspective:

Carlton should have beaten Brisbane, lost Bower before the game dominated for 3 quarters yet failed to kick accurately and didn't have anyone to play on brown which cost us. Had more clearances, inside 50's, tackles, scoring shots.

Essendon have been a Bogey side for us for a while now, always play horrible vs them, always discount form with our 3 sides invovled.

-----------------

You were lucky to get out of jail vs Melbourne, they really should have won that game.

Hawks are playing for their season already so I doubt anyone will consider them a good win.

-----------------

Decent sides record:
Collingwood 1 Win (Bulldogs) 1 Loss (St Kilda)
Carlton 1 Win (Geelong) 1 Loss (Brisbane)

The only real difference in our season so far has been our inability to play half decent vs essendon, our side was always going to take time to click without Judd/Fevola.

Collingwood's best asset is your pressure play but time and time again you have the tendency to leave it at home vs sides you don't consider up to your class. It often results in you having a harder time with a Melbourne then a Bulldogs, the question you need to ask is do you rate us as a Melbourne or a Bulldogs? My guess is the former which will come back to bite you in the ass if you allow us space and time.

Ironically Carlton has won clearances in only 3 out of 5 games this year and lost 2 out of those 3 games, the one we did win was against richmond (34-33). What we have done though in the past 2 weeks is put on enough pressure to win the ball back.

For me this game won't be about clearances, nor the forwards as neither side has a key forward capable of breaking the game open. It will be about which side brings more pressure around the ground for 4 quarters and who can use the ball better under pressure.

I expect a hard fought physical contest, carlton are averaging 70 tackles a game and collingwood are averaging 74 should make for a hell of a lot of tackles.

Ironically the Bulldogs 58, Hawthorn 60, Adelaide 55 & Richmond 57 are the 4 worst sides for tackles in the comp and Melbourne a side who troubled you a few weeks ago sit 2nd with a 73 avg, really shows what pressure will do for you.

 

[KissStephanie]

... and Carlton has beaten Collingwood in 3 of the last 4.

I already responded to that point, so why are you mentioning it again? Of those three Carlton wins, Fevola kicked 7 goals in a 23 point win, and then he kicked 8 goals in a 30 point win, while the other match was when Collingwood were decimated with injury and confidence was at it's lowest point of last season.

Yes, Fev did make a difference in 2 of those games, but if you look at the title of this thread i think the point is that the Blues have a new look, multi-dimensional forward line that appears dangerous

Of course it's dangerous, but in five matches so far this season, Carlton has kicked approximately 91 total points less than they had at the same stage of last season, although that is partly due to Judd missing for three matches, and a new structure. So far Collingwood has kicked 23 points more, which would have been greater if it wasn't for poor conversion (70 goals and 79 behinds total to date), while the highest score that an opposition has kicked against Collingwood has only been 13.15.93 by the Western Bulldogs in Round 1. In the last three weeks, the opposition has only been able to kick 10 goals, 8 goals, and 8 goals.

As for a team being decimated with injury, sure that's a factor but are you going to hang your hat on that as the sole reason why Carlton won that game, it was a very convincing victory? Being gracious in defeat is often viewed as a positive.

No, it wasn't the sole reason. Collingwood's confidence at the time was at it's lowest point of the season as well with only 3 wins and 5 losses and 11th on the ladder.

 

[DidakDelight]

The tone needs to be set early with their small forwards.
Lots of body contact, tackle hard and bump into them at every opportunity.

They will only be a problem if their midfield and half back line start to dominate and get free with little pressure.

Their small forwards are not a big danger from a centre bounce restart. Our backs must play in front at the centre bounces.They are however very dangerous if they can get some rebound of half back or if we turn the ball over in the midfield.

Every one of their forwards must be respected.
- Betts is not only a great goal opportunist he's a great link player. Harry O should get the job.
- O'Hailpin needs respect. If he kicks 1 goal that's a win for them. Presty should take him.
- Houlihan usually gets a defensive job on Didak but has been effective as forward recently. I think Maxy will get the job on him. If he goes missing this will give Maxy a great opportunity to zone off and really wreak havoc.
- Henderson gets to the right spots and is dropping a lot of easy marks. Must be respected or he could easily step up and kick a bag of 4 or 5. Reid should get the job on him
- Garlett - this is a job for Tooooooove and Im confident he'll get the job done.
- Yarran - must be respected. Heater to get the job and look to rebound off him all day.
- Waite they might look to bring him in and if so would replace Houlihan. Maxy would then get the job. IMO this would be too top heavy with 2 ruckmen in the side.


Very similar stats between the 2 teams on the weekend.

Tackles - Collingwood 72, Carlton 68
Kick to Hball Ratio: Collingwod 1:29 Carlton 1:28
Disposals per goal: Collingwood 22.28 Carlton 23.73

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

OBrien Toovey and Shaw will be first choice on the smalls, with Maxwell, Johnson and Thomas as plan B. We have plenty of cover for them, as long as we put pressure in the midfield.

Cant see a spot for Presti this week, though. Better to rest him and let us use Reids additional mobility to advantage.

 

[jonesy86]

I hope your side disrespects carlton's win today as much as you have, it was only last week Geelong kicked 11.7 in a quarter and won by 90+ points.

Write off our win as a fluke if you like but Geelong didn't just lose their good form over night, it had a lot to do with the way we played. We beat them in the middle and pressured them out of it when they did have the ball.

I love BigFooty logic just as much as you.

I mean how bad are St Kilda going when they can't beat the team that Geelong kicked 11.7 in a qtr and won by 90+ points against them.

 

[HFF]

OBrien Toovey and Shaw will be first choice on the smalls, with Maxwell, Johnson and Thomas as plan B. We have plenty of cover for them, as long as we put pressure in the midfield.

Cant see a spot for Presti this week, though. Better to rest him and let us use Reids additional mobility to advantage.

Presti (if right) should play on Setanta, he is after all, their FF. Presti can go with him easily.

One of Reid/Brown stays in the side too to play on Henderson. However, both may be needed so one can also play on the "resting ruckman" in Kreuzer/Warnock.

 

[loki04]

Can anyone tell me why the hell we keep getting the crappy sunday time slot against Carlton?

Should be either a fri night game or sat game.

Also we seem to play our Fri night games vs spud teams like Nth Melb.

Get on it Eddie enough with the crap time slot between 2 of the biggest rivals in the AFL.

 

[Ron]

I love BigFooty logic just as much as you.

I mean how bad are St Kilda going when they can't beat the team that Geelong kicked 11.7 in a qtr and won by 90+ points against them.

True.

Carlton>Cats>Port>Saints

You know it makes sense, Blues are certainties for the flag.

 

[4#Didak#4]

Why bother? Murphy only runs one way. Can't imagine they'll get enough of the ball for Murphy to make a difference. He never gets his own ball, he waits for someone to do the hard work whilst he runs forward and gets cheap touches.

If our mids are on top Murphy's supply will be cut off.
No point tagging Judd as he is too good to be tagged.
Gibbs is a sheepdog that runs around loose like Bowden in the backline, hopefully we put someone on him to make him accountable.

Being a one way runner is exactly why he should be tagged, he is very damaging when he gets it especially in the forward half, but as he doesn't win his own ball it makes him a very good candidate to get tagged out of the game. To suggest that they will not get enough of the ball to worry about him is a bit of a fantasy, because like it or not their midfield is one of the best in the comp, thrashed the Cats mids & is their one & only strength.

If he is left to run loose he will hurt us.

 

[iGNITER]

O'Brien - Betts
Toovey - Garlett
Johnson - Yarran

 

[Optimax]

O'Brien - Betts
Toovey - Garlett
Johnson - Yarran

Heath yarran, Johnson and Thomas on Judd

how is it everyone forgets Heath generally takes and smashes his man, he can more then handle yarran and get it 25 times

 

[shawthing09]

Yarran is the one who looks to be the most dangerous and I think Harry is the right match up for him.

Toov's to Garlett

Heath to Betts

I am pretty comfortable with those one on ones. The real key as has been discussed at length is to stop the supply up the ground. It's really hard for a small fowardline to be effective if the ball isn't streaming in. If the ball is held up further up the ground and our players are able to set up defensively, close the space or the ball is forced to be delivered from static movement our defence should cover them comfortably.

 

[davis_756]

I love BigFooty logic just as much as you.

I mean how bad are St Kilda going when they can't beat the team that Geelong kicked 11.7 in a qtr and won by 90+ points against them.

As we all known quite well, pressure wins games of football. No matter how good or bad a game plan is, if you come out with more intensity and tackle harder then your opponents you should win. Port did nothing of the sort against Geelong, against St Kilda they were a different team.

It is all to do with the over handball game plan sides use to get out of trouble these days, if you put on enough pressure instead of doing 2 handballs to find some space teams are forced to do 7 or 8 and turn it over and the quick rebound is the easiest way to score a goal.

This is why in a round with 8 clear favorites we seen 4 big upsets, it is all about intensity at the ball carrier which is why anyone of 5-6 clubs could win the flag this year.

 

[Go_Blues!]

As good as Geelong are (even when not at their best), Collingwood has more flexibility to close down those small forwards than Geelong. Also, 5 games into a new forward structure, I really don't expect our game to work well every week. Also, Collingwood has perhaps the best small forwards in the game and a midfield that runs deep, albeit, perhaps without the real class of Geelong or St Kilda. We will struggle to match-up on Collingwoods small forwards and Walker is a big loss since his form has really reflected Carltons form this season. For Carlton to win, we will need to hit the Collingwood ball carriers early and hard, we need one of Henderson and Satanta to stand up, we need to shut down Cloke, and we need to significantly win the midfield battle.

 

[danielnajdek]

My focus would be Judd, Gibbs, Murphy,Simmo, scotland, carratos etc etc.

We bat deep real real deep.

Carazzo your kidding right all he does is turn the ball over.so i hope he gets it 40 times because we'll rebound the ball off his errors and kick 10 goals.

 

[iGNITER]

Heath yarran, Johnson and Thomas on Judd

how is it everyone forgets Heath generally takes and smashes his man, he can more then handle yarran and get it 25 times

Yeah sounds pretty good to me mate.

I think our midfield can match it with them anyway.

Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Beams, Thomas, Wellingham
Judd, McLean, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Joseph

 

[davis_756]

Carazzo your kidding right all he does is turn the ball over.so i hope he gets it 40 times because we'll rebound the ball off his errors and kick 10 goals.

Carrots is picked on a bit but he has had a DE% of 70.5 this year and 13 clangers compared to ablett who has 19.

You could hardly call that horrible and when your in the top 5-6 possesion getters in the comp your bound to make a few errors.

 

[davis_756]

Heath yarran, Johnson and Thomas on Judd

how is it everyone forgets Heath generally takes and smashes his man, he can more then handle yarran and get it 25 times

Fyi that wont work we normally tag heath shaw with Carazzo and there isn't a whole lot you can do about it you either then accept a 2v1 or switch another bloke onto yarran.