Brownlow-Predictions $ Propaganda

[buzz123]

probably a bit too far out still to spark real interest, but i think this year's is going to be very interesting...

i think it would be EXTREMELY difficult for a cats player to get up, with so many of them taking votes of each other (ablett, bartel, corey and selwood all legitimate chances and all in the top 10 of betting), although still possible due to the number of games we've won...

of the other chances;

boomer harvey-the new scotty west so will flirt with winning
chris judd-a chance, but probably not enough games won
adam cooney-quietened down 2nd half of season (aker to take votes off him earlier in the yr also)
richo-one who i would love to see get up, and his acceptance speech would be awesome...haha seems like a top bloke who'd love a beer

my curve ball would be scott thompson of adelaide at the juicy odds of $126 each-way

to spark a bit of banter, would it be fair to say that the player associations MVP is now a more respected award anyway? its fair to say there have been some debatable brownlow winners over the journey...

 

[SJ]

probably a bit too far out still to spark real interest, but i think this year's is going to be very interesting...

i think it would be EXTREMELY difficult for a cats player to get up, with so many of them taking votes of each other (ablett, bartel, corey and selwood all legitimate chances and all in the top 10 of betting), although still possible due to the number of games we've won...

of the other chances;

boomer harvey-the new scotty west so will flirt with winning
chris judd-a chance, but probably not enough games won
adam cooney-quietened down 2nd half of season (aker to take votes off him earlier in the yr also)
richo-one who i would love to see get up, and his acceptance speech would be awesome...haha seems like a top bloke who'd love a beer

my curve ball would be scott thompson of adelaide at the juicy odds of $126 each-way

to spark a bit of banter, would it be fair to say that the player associations MVP is now a more respected award anyway? its fair to say there have been some debatable brownlow winners over the journey...

Tripe. The 'taking votes off eachother' argument has been proven a myth year after year.

Stopped reading after that sentence.

 

[Dawn2Dark]

Am still dreaming of a cat's tie

 

[Lingsface]

Im going to get on Ryan Okeefe for a place dont know what its paying but its worth a shot.

 

[bradlz]

agree with the taking votes off each other as a proven myth. how did voss, akermnanis and black all win brownlows if that theory was actually legit.

i think it is dependant on how many games you win and with only the one loss this year and most wins being a complete domination, it comes down to only a geelong player can win.......

 

[SJ]

agree with the taking votes off each other as a proven myth. how did voss, akermnanis and black all win brownlows if that theory was actually legit.

i think it is dependant on how many games you win and with only the one loss this year and most wins being a complete domination, it comes down to only a geelong player can win.......

Not to mention two of Judd, Kerr and Cousins finishing top three on multiple occasions.

 

[bradlz]

exactly s.j didn't think of that one but another to back up the theory... good work.

 

[buzz123]

Tripe. The 'taking votes off eachother' argument has been proven a myth year after year.

Stopped reading after that sentence.

why would you stop reading after that sentence when i went on to say that its still possible due to the sheer number of games we've won? i just commented that i believe its unlikely, as we have, wat, 10 AA nominations? your kidding me if u dont think that, say, gaz would poll better and be a certainty for the brownlow if he were at another top 4 club???

 

[cocka2]

why would you stop reading after that sentence when i went on to say that its still possible due to the sheer number of games we've won? i just commented that i believe its unlikely, as we have, wat, 10 AA nominations? your kidding me if u dont think that, say, gaz would poll better and be a certainty for the brownlow if he were at another top 4 club???

We actually had 9 AA players last year and I think 11 nominated and Bartel still won the brownlow. The "taking votes off each other" theory is pure myth. Geelong players will all polling votes 3,2,1 for basically all 21 games. We are gonna dominate Brownlow night.
I have a multibet from the start of the year with Jimmy to go back to back.

3 Votes J.Bartel

 

[Jose_Reyes]

ablett 1, bartel 2,

 

[themuddy#3]

is jared mcveigh a smokey? might get nice odds for a place... he has won lots of games and been a stand out for the swans

 

[vinum coupe]

Tripe. The 'taking votes off eachother' argument has been proven a myth year after year.

Stopped reading after that sentence.

nice mate, you're all class. God knows what you would have said to an opp supporter on the main board

 

[Topper]

Am still dreaming of a cat's tie

Same here

But also going the Geelong trifecta of Ablett-Bartel-Corey in that order, thats not the actual overall trifecta, theres a few more options available for just Geelong seeing as though were assumed to poll very well, its a trifecta option among Geelong players, pays around the $4 mark.

Also i cant actually believe they have odds for this but you can bet on which team as a whole polls the most votes, clearly will be Geelong, 4 games clear and highest winning margin which would mean we will poll prob 5-6 of the possible 6 votes in most of our games, only paying $1.30 but for those keen put enough on it and you'll win a bit

 

[kriso182]

I think Joel Corey will give the Brownlow a big shake. Will be an early leader but can he hold on. What I am scared of is Ablett, Bartel or Corey not winning it because they will all take votes of each other. But we did win 21 of 22 games which should help!

Corey will pull the most votes at the start, Ablett in the middle and Bartel at the end. Will be very interesting watching!

-Kris

 

[SJ]

Same here

But also going the Geelong trifecta of Ablett-Bartel-Corey in that order, thats not the actual overall trifecta, theres a few more options available for just Geelong seeing as though were assumed to poll very well, its a trifecta option among Geelong players, pays around the $4 mark.

Also i cant actually believe they have odds for this but you can bet on which team as a whole polls the most votes, clearly will be Geelong, 4 games clear and highest winning margin which would mean we will poll prob 5-6 of the possible 6 votes in most of our games, only paying $1.30 but for those keen put enough on it and you'll win a bit

Where is that, I was looking for those odds but couldn't find them.

 

[Lancelot]

As I have posted in an other thread I made a small calculation based on a small research of the past 6-7 years of the brownlow. There are 2 things that stand out:

1. 85% of the votes (ie. 5 out of 6) goes to the winning side
2. The players with the most disposals tend to get the most votes

Having said that you can count out most of the players like Harvey coz of the number of games they won. The brownlow will probably go to the 3 top teams.
Now I did some calcs based on the 2 above statements and found for the top 3 Cats players:

Bartel 26 votes
Ablett 24 votes
Corey 24 votes

Now the system is not perfect and Milburn is the best example for that last season. He got 0 votes while he was the best onballer in some of the games (umps tend to overlook him).

Anyway there are still players like Cooney, Cross and ofcourse also Lewis or Hodge who can score high. Remember Bartel scored in 11 games last year for his 29 votes.
Still up for grabs but I wouldn't bet of a north or a blues player to win it but hey I might be wrong.

my tip: Bartel for back to back brownlows

 

[Topper]

Where is that, I was looking for those odds but couldn't find them.

Sorry, on further inspection i think i have misread the option.

On the Tab website theres an option for "Brownlow Winners Team" and then next to that the bet option reads "Winning team" on a quick glance i just assumed that was the team that polled the most votes, but im pretty sure it means which team will the winner come from. Sorry for the confusion, lucky i havent put my bets on yet, although there still good odds with 2 of the top 3 favourites at Geelong.

However in years gone past, the option of "team with the most votes" has been an option hasnt it? Maybe they've scrapped it this year assuming Geelong couldnt possibly lose or maybe you can only get that bet option if you call a bookie or something?

 

[Copernicus]

It's really hard to pick this year. We've had two blokes have standout, vote-catching seasons (Ablett and Jimmy) - but we also have two other blokes who've been pretty bloody good but aren't necessarily as eye catching in Joel Selwood and Corey.

I think the first two may have been more brilliant, and more often, but I'd probably have a little flutter on the two Joels if I could just in case they did get up.

I can only see Boomer Harvey getting up outside of Geelong. Cooney tapered off a fair bit, as I could tell in the qualifying final - he was hopeless.

 

[mouzer]

Sportsbet has an Ablett/Bartel quinella @ $3.50, i'm on that!

hoping for a tie

 

[jim boy]

Also i cant actually believe they have odds for this but you can bet on which team as a whole polls the most votes, clearly will be Geelong, 4 games clear and highest winning margin which would mean we will poll prob 5-6 of the possible 6 votes in most of our games, only paying $1.30 but for those keen put enough on it and you'll win a bit

That's very good - max possible is 132, of which I think we will lose around 18 votes max (6 v Coll, 6 v Freo, 3 David Hale and 3 other). Can't see any other team coming near that.