Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[hk89]

Mid table and above North for 1-2 more years, mid table and below North after that.

I get there is heightened sensitivity about my opinion & you want to deflect the discussion, but if you want to discuss North, make a thread.

I think we're just trying to understand why you're so content with North's situation, and so pessimistic about Hawthorn's. Especially given we've been getting relatively early picks for 3 years now (including this year), have as many kids in the 22 and under squad as North, won a number of games against the top 8, versus North's zero, and have an age profile that allows our kids to supplement our senior players instead of needing to be short term replacements for them, which is where North's age profile sits.

 

[hk89]

23 days since a Carlton fan has posted in this thread. Where have they all gone? Have they been busy making a welcome banner for Clarko perhaps? Now that the "Get Clarko" plan seems scuttled, maybe they'll finally have time to come back and share their wisdom on how to properly run a football club.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Ha, yeah we were comprehensively beaten by Sloane, Laird & Keays. You're right, our midfield is still heavily reliant on Cunnington given the age & inexperience. You're also right that our #1 possession winner was 30+ year old Hall who is having a career best year. I only assume you left out the age of our #2 & #3 possession winners to suit your narrative.

North are very reliant on it's 30+ year old's in Goldstein, Cunnington, Hall & Ziebell, no doubt. My view is that this is normal for a rebuilding side. Thankfully these guys still have a couple years, so that they can play until they can hand over to our crop of 19-23 year olds who have all improved significantly this year, despite you claiming them as horrible based on one game where they were beaten.

I'm content about Norths situation because we are under no illusions of where we are at. We have gone to the draft for a longer period then Hawthorn & are still aware that we have a way to go to fill the remaining gaps in our list. This thread (as well as the Hawks board) show a consistent lack of awareness of where Hawthorn are at from a list perspective.

I can't believe you actually listed anyone bar Simpkin ahead of Will Day. Go and watch his last game against GWS before he missed the rest of the year. Easily better than anything Thomas or LDU have produced and he is younger than both of them. Was in our best few players in at least 3 of his 6 games that he played. And he is just 1. Haven't seen anything from your mob to suggest your kids will be better.

 

[Psicosis]

I can't believe you actually listed anyone bar Simpkin ahead of Will Day. Go and watch his last game against GWS before he missed the rest of the year. Easily better than anything Thomas or LDU have produced and he is younger than both of them. Was in our best few players in at least 3 of his 6 games that he played. And he is just 1. Haven't seen anything from your mob to suggest your kids will be better.

I rate Day, think he’s going to be a very good player when he can stay on the park. But to say he’s better then LDU or Tarryn at this point just shows you haven’t watched them.

When Day is playing as a midfielder (not a loose half back) getting 20+ disposals & kicking bags of 4, or getting 38 disposals & 11 clearances, he can be in the same conversation.

 

[matey]

Give me Day before any player on North’s list!

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I rate Day, think he’s going to be a very good player when he can stay on the park. But to say he’s better then LDU or Tarryn at this point just shows you haven’t watched them.

When Day is playing as a midfielder (not a loose half back) getting 20+ disposals & kicking bags of 4, or getting 38 disposals & 11 clearances, he can be in the same conversation.

I've seen both Tarryn and LDU play. Getting 38 and 11 clearances is great if you can back it up. Has 1 good game every now and than ATM. Likewise Thomas although was more consistent this year. Day hasn't played a bad game yet and if he played a full season this year we would have won a couple more games at least. Already has a big impact on the way we play.

 

[Psicosis]

I've seen both Tarryn and LDU play. Getting 38 and 11 clearances is great if you can back it up. Has 1 good game every now and than ATM. Likewise Thomas although was more consistent this year. Day hasn't played a bad game yet and if he played a full season this year we would have won a couple more games at least. Already has a big impact on the way we play.

You’re talking about the guy that has played 16 career games, yeah?

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

You’re talking about the guy that has played 16 career games, yeah?

Yeah 16 games. Not all amazing but solid for alot of them and excellent in the rest. Were you saying the same thing about Judd after his first 16 games?. You can generally tell someone is going to be very good if they get going from the start. Joel Selwood is another one. Not really an exaggeration. Ive watched all his games and so have most Hawks fans. Has the talent to be a great. Not saying he will be guaranteed but you can only go by what we has produced so far.

 

[Psicosis]

Yeah 16 games. Not all amazing but solid for alot of them and excellent in the rest. Were you saying the same thing about Judd after his first 16 games?. You can generally tell someone is going to be very good if they get going from the start. Joel Selwood is another one. Not really an exaggeration. Ive watched all his games and so have most Hawks fans. Has the talent to be a great. Not saying he will be guaranteed but you can only go by what we has produced so far.

Claiming he was better then TT and LDU after 16 games was an exaggeration. Comparisons to Judd & Selwood are next level. Good work.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

2022 is next year. What does 'pushing' entail? Making the 8? Top 4? Winning the flag?

Stranger things have happened, but which of these scenarios seems the most likely; your own club hierarchy think you have the talent to challenge immediately but Alistair Clarkson is not the man they want at the helm, or you've had a crack at topping up which didn't work and it's time to change things up a bit and risk going backwards to go forward?

The list is not as bad as many think. The shackles came off the last 6 weeks and we saw much better footy. Our good players on their day are very good we just didn't see enough of it. Add to that our lengthy injury list which has flown under the rader because we're irrelevant ATM. Get a decent run next year and our younger brigade keeps developing we will be a decent side. Add 3 picks in the top 30 at this years draft with 1 top 6 pick and we are starting to stockpile some good young talent as long as we pick right. Put it this way I rekon this year is as low as it's going to get. Mitchell is a good operator. Got Box Hill humming along nicely with an attacking gameplan with elements that were incorporated throughout the last few games.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Claiming he was better then TT and LDU after 16 games was an exaggeration. Comparisons to Judd & Selwood are next level. Good work.

First part of your post is correct. Not claiming he is better now he is better. Your head in the sand about it doesn't change that. 2nd part you have somehow tried to suggest I think he will end up like Judd or Selwood. Go back and read it again. You were trying to dismiss my opinion based on 16 games of footy. I simply stated that you can't do that and I gave examples. Wasn't saying he is going to be the next Chris Judd. Don't get your nose out of joint because some of our youth is better than yours.

 

[hk89]

When Day is playing as a midfielder (not a loose half back) getting 20+ disposals & kicking bags of 4, or getting 38 disposals & 11 clearances, he can be in the same conversation.

Why can Day's class only be rated once he's playing midfield? If anything his numbers will go up not down if that happens. Saying this is about as sensible as
saying "I don't rate this Breust fellow, let's wait until he's taking most of the hitouts before we assess if he's any good." Day may play midfield later in his career, but right now his frame doesn't scream midfielder to me.

As it stands , LDU averaged 10.4 and 14.9 possessions in his first 2 years.

Day averaged 15.6 and then 19.8 in his first two years.

Day did average slightly less contested ball, as you could imagine for a player mostly playing off HB, but with 4.1 and 5.6 in first two years versus LDU's 4.7 and 6.9 the difference isn't that massive. Day had a super light frame which a) probably led to at least one of his injuries and b) stopped him from being used
in a more contested position. He doesn't actually need to play as a contested ball win to be a gun player going forward. Classy half backs are super important
parts of a good team. Out of the 5 games Day played this year, he had a 28 and a 29 possession game, the 29 posession game was pretty damaging, with 5 inside 50s, which is pretty decent for a guy playing in the back half. 7 score involvements in both games, which is also pretty high for a defender. LDU played 14 games in his second year, and his two highest possession games were 21 and 26 possessions. Right now, I'd be happy to say LDU is a better player, but he's also had 2 years more development than Day. Also his 11 clearance game was against us, at a time our midfield was clearly performing as the worst in the competition. There is no doubt he's a future star. He'll be an excellent replacement for some of your aging mids that you are still highly reliant on.

I don't watch enough of North to know what Tarryn's mix of time between forward and mid has been over his 3 years, but I assume he was mostly
forward in his first 2 years given his 12 and 7.8 possession averages, so I think it probably doesn't make much sense to compare these low numbers to Day.
Obviously both LDU and Tarryn have kicked more goals each year than Day, given day is not seen up the ground that often.

 

[Scotland]

The list is not as bad as many think. The shackles came off the last 6 weeks and we saw much better footy. Our good players on their day are very good we just didn't see enough of it. Add to that our lengthy injury list which has flown under the rader because we're irrelevant ATM. Get a decent run next year and our younger brigade keeps developing we will be a decent side. Add 3 picks in the top 30 at this years draft with 1 top 6 pick and we are starting to stockpile some good young talent as long as we pick right. Put it this way I rekon this year is as low as it's going to get. Mitchell is a good operator. Got Box Hill humming along nicely with an attacking gameplan with elements that were incorporated throughout the last few games.

You are spot on, your list isn't that bad. But it's not that good either. At least not in the sense of 'ZOMG Hawks are up and coming, look out in a year or two'. Which was always the gamble of topping up after 2016. You've got Phillips, Impey, O'Meara, Mitchell, Wingard, Frost who were brought in and are all in their prime now. As well as the remaining premiership players who are late prime. The current Hawthorn squad (pre trade week assuming no shock retirements or Ned Guy things) is more than capable of being a middle 6 side as is reflective of the list profile.

 

[HeHateMe]

Day can obviously play as a attractive running half back and this is what opposition fans will see.

But what excites me about him is the intangible things in his game, what he does off the ball, how he structures players around him, his timing of when to leave his man and lend support, the way he makes the players around him better. These are things you normally don't see in a rookie player.

Psicosis i consider Day a better prospect than Thomas and LDU, this isn't because I don't rate them in fact I've been lobbying all year for Thomas in the 22 under 22 thread. It's because I see something in Day that reminds me of the greats, and we have had some great players come through the club in the last 20 years.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Day can obviously play as a attractive running half back and this is what opposition fans will see.

But what excites me about him is the intangible things in his game, what he does off the ball, how he structures players around him, his timing of when to leave his man and lend support, the way he makes the players around him better. These are things you normally don't see in a rookie player.

Psicosis i consider Day a better prospect than Thomas and LDU, this isn't because I don't rate them in fact I've been lobbying all year for Thomas in the 22 under 22 thread. It's because I see something in Day that reminds me of the greats, and we have had some great players come through the club in the last 20 years.

He moves like Gary Ayres. Similar gait and running style and already an excellent decision maker. Has future captain written all over him.

 

[Ambrosia]

Don’t really think North and Hawthorn supporters would want to compare sides.

North have been forced into a bottom out rebuild similar to Carlton in 2015. Adelaide are also in a similar spot to North and should be there direct comparison.

Hawthorn’s list profile is much more like an Essendon or StKilda where they have a reasonable spread of talent across different age demographics but need to continue to recruit and develop the young players on their list if they are to push higher than mid table.

Sure there is a genuine concern that the Saints/Hawks/Dons end up topping out as a mid table side BUT extended rebuilding isn’t a guarantee for success and North could go through their 5 years in the wilderness like Carlton and still not have the talent not be near competing for a flag.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Don’t really think North and Hawthorn supporters would want to compare sides.

North have been forced into a bottom out rebuild similar to Carlton in 2015. Adelaide are also in a similar spot to North and should be there direct comparison.

Hawthorn’s list profile is much more like an Essendon or StKilda where they have a reasonable spread of talent across different age demographics but need to continue to recruit and develop the young players on their list if they are to push higher than mid table.

Sure there is a genuine concern that the Saints/Hawks/Dons end up topping out as a mid table side BUT extended rebuilding isn’t a guarantee for success and North could go through their 5 years in the wilderness like Carlton and still not have the talent not be near competing for a flag.

Yeah I see that point but for north I’m actually glad to see us take a different approach as the last decade we’ve been in that situation where our best is not flag worthy and tops out at prelims

I’m more confident now with our approach and the young core group we are putting together

 

[Ambrosia]

Yeah I see that point but for north I’m actually glad to see us take a different approach as the last decade we’ve been in that situation where our best is not flag worthy and tops out at prelims

I’m more confident now with our approach and the young core group we are putting together

Yeah I think it’s definitely a more fool proof method and makes North less likely to top out as a mid table side then your Essendon/North/StKildas but I don’t think really think any teams intentionally go down the North/Carlton full bottom rebuild. It’s more a decision clubs are forced into.

 

[Scotland]

North only went down the traditional rebuild path after attempting to top up from 2012 to 2016.

They were never miles off the pace, but if the best you can muster in any H&A season is 14 wins you really aren't a contender.

Harvey, Firrito, Dal Santo, Wells all gone after their last final (2016 EF). Gibson, Hansen, Swallow, Thomas one more year. Etc.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

I rate Day, think he’s going to be a very good player when he can stay on the park. But to say he’s better then LDU or Tarryn at this point just shows you haven’t watched them.

When Day is playing as a midfielder (not a loose half back) getting 20+ disposals & kicking bags of 4, or getting 38 disposals & 11 clearances, he can be in the same conversation.

Im enjoying your work in this thread but I also think Day is a better player than LDU. I've watched LDU closely this year (Supercoach draft) and he just seems like a wheel in the machine, and a bit slow. I am aware LDU lost his Dad (?) this year but still, I see more upside in Day.

TT has had a blinder of a year and deserves the plaudits he is getting, he has a year on Day so hopefully Will can do the same next year.

I think Day will end up being our best player, I see him as Fyfe like especially if he can bulk up. Im not usually prone to hyperbole, Hawks fans are especially bullish on this one.

 

[btdg]

Interesting to revisit this thread in Hawthorn's current context - looking to ship out some if the high profile players they traded for (Mitchell, Wingard, O'Meara) to bring in draft picks.

Q part of me still thinks the Hawks took the right path and did almost as well at it as they could, and making even sticking it out would be better. Surely picks 5, 25 and whatever they have will be better kn a competitive team with some veterans to carry the load?

 

[Bunk Moreland]

The moves they're trying to make this off-season are an acknowledgement of just how wrong they got it. It's pretty clear that Wingard, O'Meara and Mitchell are on the trade table - they just have to see of there's suitors.

It's a massive rejection of the path that Clarkson and Wright took. Wonder how much the realisation of this played a part in their seeming eagerness to move Clarkson on. I'd say it was quite significant and it wouldn't have been easy to make the same moves with Clarkson still there - he brought these players in and made the promises, he couldn't very well just punt them.

 

[Desync]

Depends what you call "Success" Geelong have been doing this for 10 years and competed successfully in that time, Although they are yet to get a flag either.

But rebuilds can take just as long, So is it a viable strategy ? They have defenitely been in the discussion and competing.

 

[Jack Green]

The moves they're trying to make this off-season are an acknowledgement of just how wrong they got it. It's pretty clear that Wingard, O'Meara and Mitchell are on the trade table - they just have to see of there's suitors.

It's a massive rejection of the path that Clarkson and Wright took. Wonder how much the realisation of this played a part in their seeming eagerness to move Clarkson on. I'd say it was quite significant and it wouldn't have been easy to make the same moves with Clarkson still there - he brought these players in and made the promises, he couldn't very well just punt them.

Spot on. Although the whispers were Wright and Clarko weren't totally in agreement about the strategy - and hence one of the reasons Wright left! Some very interesting times ahead for the Hawks .

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Shut up and buy our players you minnows.