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Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

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TylerDurden said:
Average age of the list is now 22. The youngest in the comp by 2 years. Have we answered the question now? ;)
Click to expand...

Strangely, I thought Hawthorn did quite well, and yet failed.

At the same time, I thought Geelong tried to do the same thing but worse, and it has succeeded incredibly well for them.

The major difference seems to be in maintaining the fitness and injury managemetn of older players. Geelong won a premiership with 15 players aged 30 and over on their list, including Higgins (34), Selwood (34), Hawkins (34), Smith (33), Touhy (32) and Dangerfield (32)

When this thread began in 2018, Hawthorn still had on its list:
  • Jarryd Roughead (could be 34 today)
  • Smith (33)
  • Frawley (33)
  • Stratton (32)
  • McEvoy (32)
  • Rioli (32)
Add those guys in and have them performing as close to their peak as Geelong's crew are, and Hawthorn look bloody different in 2022 imo.

The other thing Geelong had was a bunch of 23-26yo, mid tier players - guys who were honestly pretty ordinary, but who have surpassed expectations since: Stanley, Guthrie, Menegola, Bews, Atkins, etc.

Hawthorn at that time had: Langford, O'Brien, Brand, Impey, Howe, etc - probably not far off the level of the Geelong blokes, but who probably underperformed from that point on.

And of course Geelong landed Stewart - a once in a generation mature age recruit who becomes the best player in the comp at his position. AND they also landed Kelly - who appeared to be a once in a generation mature age recruit who could become the best in the comp at his position, but they traded him for multiple assets just before he fell away.

AND now Geelong have managed to luck into having several older blokes retire post-premiership, freeing up salary cap space just in time to take advantage of Gold Coast in the most ridiculously one sided trade since the last horrendous trade Gold Coast were forced into (probably the Lachie Weller one).

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems there WAS a path for Hawthorn to succeed - do what they did, but also:
  • have the greatest fitness/health program known to man and keep a bunch of superstars playing well into their 30s
  • have a bunch of mid tier players exceed expectations
  • Land two absolute gems via mature age recruits, and sell high on one to provide just a little bit more flexibility

I think the ultimate answer is: can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? No - it depends on being almost perfect in your player development, fitness/injury management, recruiting, and getting a little bit lucky along the way.

In the end, probably easier to hit the draft when your time comes - note that if you do the things above (perfect player development, recruiting, fitness etc) you'll probably bounce back fast and hard anyway.
 
btdg said:
Strangely, I thought Hawthorn did quite well, and yet failed.

At the same time, I thought Geelong tried to do the same thing but worse, and it has succeeded incredibly well for them.

The major difference seems to be in maintaining the fitness and injury managemetn of older players. Geelong won a premiership with 15 players aged 30 and over on their list, including Higgins (34), Selwood (34), Hawkins (34), Smith (33), Touhy (32) and Dangerfield (32)

When this thread began in 2018, Hawthorn still had on its list:
  • Jarryd Roughead (could be 34 today)
  • Smith (33)
  • Frawley (33)
  • Stratton (32)
  • McEvoy (32)
  • Rioli (32)
Add those guys in and have them performing as close to their peak as Geelong's crew are, and Hawthorn look bloody different in 2022 imo.

The other thing Geelong had was a bunch of 23-26yo, mid tier players - guys who were honestly pretty ordinary, but who have surpassed expectations since: Stanley, Guthrie, Menegola, Bews, Atkins, etc.

Hawthorn at that time had: Langford, O'Brien, Brand, Impey, Howe, etc - probably not far off the level of the Geelong blokes, but who probably underperformed from that point on.

And of course Geelong landed Stewart - a once in a generation mature age recruit who becomes the best player in the comp at his position. AND they also landed Kelly - who appeared to be a once in a generation mature age recruit who could become the best in the comp at his position, but they traded him for multiple assets just before he fell away.

AND now Geelong have managed to luck into having several older blokes retire post-premiership, freeing up salary cap space just in time to take advantage of Gold Coast in the most ridiculously one sided trade since the last horrendous trade Gold Coast were forced into (probably the Lachie Weller one).

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems there WAS a path for Hawthorn to succeed - do what they did, but also:
  • have the greatest fitness/health program known to man and keep a bunch of superstars playing well into their 30s
  • have a bunch of mid tier players exceed expectations
  • Land two absolute gems via mature age recruits, and sell high on one to provide just a little bit more flexibility

I think the ultimate answer is: can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? No - it depends on being almost perfect in your player development, fitness/injury management, recruiting, and getting a little bit lucky along the way.

In the end, probably easier to hit the draft when your time comes - note that if you do the things above (perfect player development, recruiting, fitness etc) you'll probably bounce back fast and hard anyway.
Click to expand...
Those over 30s Hawks you mention are absolutely cooked, Smith aside - who we tried to keep. Gunston the other.

I still reckon we should've kept JOM, but other than that, I'm happy with the path we're taking.

With any luck, they all peak together, and we become a force again.
 

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btdg said:
Strangely, I thought Hawthorn did quite well, and yet failed.

At the same time, I thought Geelong tried to do the same thing but worse, and it has succeeded incredibly well for them.

The major difference seems to be in maintaining the fitness and injury managemetn of older players. Geelong won a premiership with 15 players aged 30 and over on their list, including Higgins (34), Selwood (34), Hawkins (34), Smith (33), Touhy (32) and Dangerfield (32)

When this thread began in 2018, Hawthorn still had on its list:
  • Jarryd Roughead (could be 34 today)
  • Smith (33)
  • Frawley (33)
  • Stratton (32)
  • McEvoy (32)
  • Rioli (32)
Add those guys in and have them performing as close to their peak as Geelong's crew are, and Hawthorn look bloody different in 2022 imo.

The other thing Geelong had was a bunch of 23-26yo, mid tier players - guys who were honestly pretty ordinary, but who have surpassed expectations since: Stanley, Guthrie, Menegola, Bews, Atkins, etc.

Hawthorn at that time had: Langford, O'Brien, Brand, Impey, Howe, etc - probably not far off the level of the Geelong blokes, but who probably underperformed from that point on.

And of course Geelong landed Stewart - a once in a generation mature age recruit who becomes the best player in the comp at his position. AND they also landed Kelly - who appeared to be a once in a generation mature age recruit who could become the best in the comp at his position, but they traded him for multiple assets just before he fell away.

AND now Geelong have managed to luck into having several older blokes retire post-premiership, freeing up salary cap space just in time to take advantage of Gold Coast in the most ridiculously one sided trade since the last horrendous trade Gold Coast were forced into (probably the Lachie Weller one).

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems there WAS a path for Hawthorn to succeed - do what they did, but also:
  • have the greatest fitness/health program known to man and keep a bunch of superstars playing well into their 30s
  • have a bunch of mid tier players exceed expectations
  • Land two absolute gems via mature age recruits, and sell high on one to provide just a little bit more flexibility

I think the ultimate answer is: can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? No - it depends on being almost perfect in your player development, fitness/injury management, recruiting, and getting a little bit lucky along the way.

In the end, probably easier to hit the draft when your time comes - note that if you do the things above (perfect player development, recruiting, fitness etc) you'll probably bounce back fast and hard anyway.
Click to expand...
Helps to play on a ground that doesn't even remotely resemble an oval too.
 
btdg said:
Strangely, I thought Hawthorn did quite well, and yet failed.

At the same time, I thought Geelong tried to do the same thing but worse, and it has succeeded incredibly well for them.

The major difference seems to be in maintaining the fitness and injury managemetn of older players. Geelong won a premiership with 15 players aged 30 and over on their list, including Higgins (34), Selwood (34), Hawkins (34), Smith (33), Touhy (32) and Dangerfield (32)

When this thread began in 2018, Hawthorn still had on its list:
  • Jarryd Roughead (could be 34 today)
  • Smith (33)
  • Frawley (33)
  • Stratton (32)
  • McEvoy (32)
  • Rioli (32)
Add those guys in and have them performing as close to their peak as Geelong's crew are, and Hawthorn look bloody different in 2022 imo.

The other thing Geelong had was a bunch of 23-26yo, mid tier players - guys who were honestly pretty ordinary, but who have surpassed expectations since: Stanley, Guthrie, Menegola, Bews, Atkins, etc.

Hawthorn at that time had: Langford, O'Brien, Brand, Impey, Howe, etc - probably not far off the level of the Geelong blokes, but who probably underperformed from that point on.

And of course Geelong landed Stewart - a once in a generation mature age recruit who becomes the best player in the comp at his position. AND they also landed Kelly - who appeared to be a once in a generation mature age recruit who could become the best in the comp at his position, but they traded him for multiple assets just before he fell away.

AND now Geelong have managed to luck into having several older blokes retire post-premiership, freeing up salary cap space just in time to take advantage of Gold Coast in the most ridiculously one sided trade since the last horrendous trade Gold Coast were forced into (probably the Lachie Weller one).

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems there WAS a path for Hawthorn to succeed - do what they did, but also:
  • have the greatest fitness/health program known to man and keep a bunch of superstars playing well into their 30s
  • have a bunch of mid tier players exceed expectations
  • Land two absolute gems via mature age recruits, and sell high on one to provide just a little bit more flexibility

I think the ultimate answer is: can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? No - it depends on being almost perfect in your player development, fitness/injury management, recruiting, and getting a little bit lucky along the way.

In the end, probably easier to hit the draft when your time comes - note that if you do the things above (perfect player development, recruiting, fitness etc) you'll probably bounce back fast and hard anyway.
Click to expand...

I’m fiercely anti geelong, but respect them immensely. I’d say they made their luck.
 
Elmer_Judd said:
Not yet, it's still hard for me to imagine not being bottom 4 cellar dwellers at least next season.
Mitch Lewis and Jai Newcombe aside, I am not if Hawthorn have an A Grade young talent on their list.
But I have underestimated Hawthorn FC many times in my lifetime of supporting footy.
Click to expand...
Yeah it's a fair call, though I'd argue at least positionally Jiath looks like an A Grade Half back, same with Moore as a HF. A bit older but Hardwick is an A Grade lockdown and Amon on the wing. Older again Sicily is an A Grade talent overall.
Now that's not enough to drive us up the ladder but a foundation is there, with a really young list we just need a Day and or a Reeves to break out and to be really optimistic Wingard and Bruest have A Grade seasons and all of a sudden we have 11 blokes playing at that level.
If your a betting man you don't put money an all of that happening but as the saying goes nothing is ever as good or bad as it seems.
 
spudmaster said:
Helps to play on a ground that doesn't even remotely resemble an oval too.
Click to expand...
Finals are played at the Mighty MCG where we romped home. Our record there the past 2-3 years is the envy of the competition - our cheat ground up the highway some are starting to call it.
 
Sky said:
It’s our fixture because unlike Hawthorn we haven’t been bottom four since 1986. 2019 onwards it should’ve been against Richmond and quite possibly should be you guys from 2024.
Click to expand...
It's the AFL fixture but I understand your sentiment and expect Cats can still play in that slot the next few years.
Cats v Blues or Tigers would have been a better Easter Monday clash for season 2023.
 
footyfan1978 said:
It's the AFL fixture but I understand your sentiment and expect Cats can still play in that slot the next few years.
Cats v Blues or Tigers would have been a better Easter Monday clash for season 2023.
Click to expand...
Hawthorn beat them in 2022 playing without a ruck for 3 quarters

Have no idea how other teams found them so hard to beat
 
La Dispute said:
What happened to the three years prior?

Hawthorn would have used those picks on picks on players but no reasonable player wanted to play for them due to their downward spiral.

Every club is gifted a first round pick each year, the Hawks needed to push harder to bring in more.
Click to expand...
good point.....

but depends on your side on the coin you flip....

Hawks makes grand finals in 2012-5. Wins the 2013-15 flags.

tried to go for a 4th flag in a row in 2016, goes out in straight sets.

traded their future 1st rounder at the end of 2016.

gones 0-4 in 2017. Saints looked like getting hawks number 1 pick. Hawks end up with 10 wins..

Hawks some how snag a top 4 spot in 2018, goes out in straight sets.

Hawks narrowly miss out on finals in 2019.

Hawks then finish bottom 4 in 2020.

Teams usually get a 1st rounder each year unless they trade it for a player or trade it away for next season.

when you are in the bottom 6 and you have a top 5 pick, you usually trade it for multiple picks or get a gun kid in the draft.
 

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BIGHAWK23 said:
North for the last 5 years

And yet, will still finish higher then North
Click to expand...

Do you really think North have been tanking? Why bother sacking 2 coaches and bringing in Clarkson if North don’t want to be competitive?

TBH another year at the bottom wouldn’t hurt North, bring in Harley Reid and another first rounder with Ports pick, but I don’t think North are deliberately tanking. The place has been a mess.

The Hawks offloading their better senior players just reeks of tanking. I don’t mind it tbh, it is what it is. Hawthorn haven’t had much access to top end talent for years so I spose they had to do it or they were just destined to sit mid table and never make any ground.
 

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Val Keating said:
Has there ever been a more blatant tanking of a season before it begins then the Hawks in 2023?
Click to expand...

Sam Mitchell rates the current list higher than most give him credit for.

We didn't trade Mitchell and O'Meara to tank. We traded them because the belief is that Newcombe, Ward, Worpel, Moore, Maginness etc are more beneficial to long term success and good enough to replace them immediately.

We wanted to keep Gunston so he cannot be part of the 'tanking' narrative.
 
Blackhawk42 said:
Sam Mitchell rates the current list higher than most give him credit for.

We didn't trade Mitchell and O'Meara to tank. We traded them because the belief is that Newcombe, Ward, Worpel, Moore, Maginness etc are more beneficial to long term success and good enough to replace them immediately.

We wanted to keep Gunston so he cannot be part of the 'tanking' narrative.
Click to expand...

Squad has crazy depth now compared to 05-08. Whether there are a dozen a graders is the answer to be uncovered
 

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Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

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