Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Scotland]

It's a great point Scotland. There's probably 15 other clubs would prefer Geelong's last decade of 'success'.

Where Geelong 2011 and Hawthorn 2015 have differed is that Hawthorn started the rejuvenation process with more mature talent (21-23) traded in, but whiffing on their Elite FA bids, whilst Geelong went to the draft (18yo), and used FA to pick up two elite players in Dangerfield and Ablett.

Geelong topped up a bit after 2011 (McIntosh, Rivers) but they still used their first pick in 2012, 2013, 2014 and did a swap in 2011 from late first to early second). They stepped it up in 2015 getting Danger (who wouldn't get a 25 year old Danger for what they paid?), Scott Selwood, Henderson and Zac Smith. And have since added Tuohy in 2016, Ablett back in 2017, Rohan, Dahlhaus 2018 and Steven and Jenkins last year. They also drafted Stewart and Kelly (since gone) who both debuted the year they turned 24 which skews things a bit. They definitely have put a lot of eggs in the now basket, but they haven't given away too much of value.

Where they differ IMO is that Hawthorn fell short in 2016 with most of the 2015 team still around (2-3 retired off the top of my head) then when really hard with the ins and outs. Geelong were more conservative with their moves. A couple of up and down seasons since. Geelong have only had one season worse than 13 wins (11-1-9 from a 21 game year) but as above can't get over the prelim hump. Their best chance with the current group has probably passed but with the way this season is going who knows...

 

[Pessimistic]

Did someone mention freo lose the 2013 QF in geelong if the same 'rationale' is applied?

Geelong topped up a bit after 2011 (McIntosh, Rivers) but they still used their first pick in 2012, 2013, 2014 and did a swap in 2011 from late first to early second). They stepped it up in 2015 getting Danger (who wouldn't get a 25 year old Danger for what they paid?), Scott Selwood, Henderson and Zac Smith. And have since added Tuohy in 2016, Ablett back in 2017, Rohan, Dahlhaus 2018 and Steven and Jenkins last year. They also drafted Stewart and Kelly (since gone) who both debuted the year they turned 24 which skews things a bit. They definitely have put a lot of eggs in the now basket, but they haven't given away too much of value.

Where they differ IMO is that Hawthorn fell short in 2016 with most of the 2015 team still around (2-3 retired off the top of my head) then when really hard with the ins and outs. Geelong were more conservative with their moves. A couple of up and down seasons since. Geelong have only had one season worse than 13 wins (11-1-9 from a 21 game year) but as above can't get over the prelim hump. Their best chance with the current group has probably passed but with the way this season is going who knows...

Geelong appear to be in a second 'refresh' after 2011. ie some debutants since then are now left or out of favour

 

[WWSD]

Hawthorn have won 9 of the last 12 games since Round 16 last year. Can Hawthorn ignore the elite end of the draft but still knock off the top teams from last year and challenge for the 2020 Premiership?

Mitchell, Gunston, Breust, Sicily and O'Meara haven't even fired a shot yet this year. There's still upside.

Round 16: Collingwood W
Round 17: Fremantle W
Round 18: Geelong W
Round 19: Brisbane L
Round 21: GWS W
Round 20: North Melbourne L
Round 22: Gold Coast W
Round 23: West Coast W
-------------
Round 1: Brisbane W
Round 2: Geelong L
Round 3: Richmond W
Round 4: North Melbourne W

 

[TylerDurden]

Too old, too slow.

Btw, Wingerz back to his elite best. Another 3 votes.

 

[Hawkas1988]

Hawthorn have won 9 of the last 12 games since Round 16 last year. Can Hawthorn ignore the elite end of the draft but still knock off the top teams from last year and challenge for the 2020 Premiership?

Mitchell, Gunston, Breust, Sicily and O'Meara haven't even fired a shot yet this year. There's still upside.

Round 16: Collingwood W
Round 17: Fremantle W
Round 18: Geelong W
Round 19: Brisbane L
Round 21: GWS W
Round 20: North Melbourne L
Round 22: Gold Coast W
Round 23: West Coast W
-------------
Round 1: Brisbane W
Round 2: Geelong L
Round 3: Richmond W
Round 4: North Melbourne W

Unfair on Sicily. He has been great so far this year. Immense tonight in the 2nd half.

Sent from my SM-G977B using Tapatalk

 

[WWSD]

Unfair on Sicily. He has been great so far this year. Immense tonight in the 2nd half.

Sent from my SM-G977B using Tapatalk

Sicily hasn't been playing close to what he was last year. Which is actually a good thing, because when he does it makes us a much better team overall.

 

[WWSD]

Tig017 where you at?

 

[hawkman]

Not running out games at the moment. 3 weeks in a row have been dominated late. Hopefully as fitness builds we might be able to last with that pressure for 4 quarters

Another big game next week

 

[Pessimistic]

For 2020 I don’t see any potent teams. Except maybe port who have feasted on minnows thus far

 

[The Nostradamus]

I’m assuming the lack of legs is 2 things 1 they are the oldest in the comp and 2 they play with an extra tall

 

[wobblypunt]

Hawks are like Sydney/ Geelong of the last dozen or so years they never quite bottom out and even if you can see they won't be a top 8 side they still can never be written off before any given game. Superb culture and a great coaching staff.

 

[Upgrayedd]

I’m assuming the lack of legs is 2 things 1 they are the oldest in the comp and 2 they play with an extra tall

Extra tall.

Legs wasnt the issue, Some of our younger players completely shat the bed and turned off in those 6 minutes, It was guys like Worpel just clearing it for the sake of "I dont want football here" rather then trying to pump it out close to the boundary rather into the **** of Pittard

 

[Back One Out]

Case closed. Lock thread.

 

[Xtreme]

This season will go one of two ways

A premiership victory

Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

A wooden spoon


Watch this space!

 

[hk89]

Once you factor the draw into the equation, Hawthorn comfortably the best performed team this year.

Currently sitting 4th, but 1st-3rd have feasted on the bottom 3, with 3 wins each against the bottom 3 teams. Port is the only team above us that has beaten anyone not currently sitting in the bottom 3, and that win was against another team that has also only got wins against the bottom 3.

We've now played 3 of the top 4 of last year's H&A. Deplorable loss against Geelong, but we appear to have come back half done given we've faded badly at half time, then 3qtr time, and now half way into the last in the Roos game. Once we get that sorted, we'll start posting some decent margins. Our draw will open a little after next week too. Would have been nice to play eagles early, as I suspect they'll finish strongly, but after next week, we've really only got WC and Pies to go out of the main contenders, although Melbourne and Dogs situation still not clear yet. Dogs best looks very good, and they've matched up well against us for a few years now.

 

[boncer34]

"Once you add qualifiers Hawthorn has been the best this year."

Comedy gold.

The answer remains no.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

I’m assuming the lack of legs is 2 things 1 they are the oldest in the comp and 2 they play with an extra tall

I think the manic pressure has a lot to do with it too. I knew we were going to fade late last night like the Richmond game. When I started getting messages calling it at 5 goals up I still wasn't convinced.

I've never seen manic pressure like that from Hawthorn, not for a while anyway.

North flipped the script and for the last 5 minutes did what Hawthorn had done for the last 2 1/2 quarters, just with a hell of a lot more efficiency in front of goal.

 

[RUNVS]

I wonder if Mitchell is still getting over his broken leg, or at least isn't as fit as the other players yet due to lack of preseason as his disposal numbers are good, but they are nowhere near what they were 2 years ago.

 

[matey]

Top 4 at the moment ..... not bad

 

[Pessimistic]

Need 8 wins from 13. Eagles need 10. shows how the short season is panning out

 

[4THAWN]

I wonder if Mitchell is still getting over his broken leg, or at least isn't as fit as the other players yet due to lack of preseason as his disposal numbers are good, but they are nowhere near what they were 2 years ago.

I think its unlikely Titch ever gets back to averaging 35 disposals.

in 2017/2018 when he was doing that, it was Titch + a decent Jaeger + Shiels in the midfield. There was very little support for Tom back then.

Titch has a lot more support this year with a better Jaeger, Worpel, Wingard and Shiels around the ball.

Tom will still be collecting 30 disposals a lot of weeks when we get back to normal length quarters, just don't think we'll see the 35s, 40s from him anymore.

 

[cryptor]

I wonder if Mitchell is still getting over his broken leg, or at least isn't as fit as the other players yet due to lack of preseason as his disposal numbers are good, but they are nowhere near what they were 2 years ago.

If by "getting over his broken leg" you mean still building back his fitness and confidence in his body then 100% he is. It's amazing he's back playing as well as he is now already given this type of injury has ended careers.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

I wonder if Mitchell is still getting over his broken leg, or at least isn't as fit as the other players yet due to lack of preseason as his disposal numbers are good, but they are nowhere near what they were 2 years ago.

A lot of talk that he is carrying a sore shoulder, not sure if it is true but his tackle numbers have been down up until this week. Hopefully a sign he is getting back to the old Titch.

 

[btdg]

For 2020 I don’t see any potent teams. Except maybe port who have feasted on minnows thus far

I’ve tipped Hawthorn for the flag this year since the day they went to playing without crowds.

In a crazy, messed up year so much comes down to being able to prepare in changing circumstances and luck.

Clarko brings the first better than anyone. Luck is what it is - at this stage Hawthorn are relatively injury free, and seem to have dodged the worst of the fixturing stuff.


The league has been very even for a few years; just having a good coach this year might be enough to get over the top.

 

[Furn2]

I wonder if Mitchell is still getting over his broken leg, or at least isn't as fit as the other players yet due to lack of preseason as his disposal numbers are good, but they are nowhere near what they were 2 years ago.

Playing a quarter less in gametime might be a factor.