Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Bulldog1954]

And no one has really said how a player drafted top ten is desirable, but if you trade in that player, it’s not. Quite a few of the hawks trade ins were high draft

Not commenting on Hawthorns strategy, but the difference is pretty clear. Drafting a player in the top ten gives you a chance at a star, bringing in an experienced past top ten pick who has already peaked and who has serious injury concerns isn’t giving you a chance at a star.

 

[MightyHawks]

Not commenting on Hawthorns strategy, but the difference is pretty clear. Drafting a player in the top ten gives you a chance at a star, bringing in an experienced past top ten pick who has already peaked and who has serious injury concerns isn’t giving you a chance at a star.

Shaun Burgoyne?

 

[hawkman]

Not commenting on Hawthorns strategy, but the difference is pretty clear. Drafting a player in the top ten gives you a chance at a star, bringing in an experienced past top ten pick who has already peaked and who has serious injury concerns isn’t giving you a chance at a star.

Sure but Hawthorn have had access on ladder position to 1 top 10 pick in the last 10 years. So its either drop down the ladder to get them or trade players out to get top picks.

 

[boncer34]

Well the 4 flags were won in 15 years in total.

Yep. Like I said.

Anyone would take 4 in 15. Not sure why you took such offense at me stating 15.

 

[Pessimistic]

Not commenting on Hawthorns strategy, but the difference is pretty clear. Drafting a player in the top ten gives you a chance at a star, bringing in an experienced past top ten pick who has already peaked and who has serious injury concerns isn’t giving you a chance at a star.

it was pretty successful 2010-2015. Same strategy. Half the entrants to best 22 come from trades, half from draft and develop

by the way hawks have a 40% success rate with draftees, around the competition average

 

[Bulldog1954]

Shaun Burgoyne?

Wasn’t a top ten pick which is what I was referring to and the post I quoted was referring to.

 

[Bulldog1954]

it was pretty successful 2010-2015. Same strategy. Half the entrants to best 22 come from trades, half from draft and develop

by the way hawks have a 40% success rate with draftees, around the competition average

Again, wasn’t commenting on Hawthorns overall strategy. Just making the point that having a top ten pick in the draft is very different to trading for someone who once was a top ten pick.

 

[MightyHawks]

Wasn’t a top ten pick which is what I was referring to and the post I quoted was referring to.

Ah pick 12 so Burgoyne also fails as he hadn't peaked either - he's got better since we got him

Not commenting on Hawthorns strategy, but the difference is pretty clear. Drafting a player in the top ten gives you a chance at a star, bringing in an experienced past top ten pick who has already peaked and who has serious injury concerns isn’t giving you a chance at a star.

It's a really tough criteria though, and drafting a player in the top ten only gives you a low chance at a star.

Lets look at the 2011 AFL draft top 10 (Ignore pick 11 as it was Toby Greene so even if he is a star which is highly unlikely as he isn't a top 10 pick - it's irrelevant to the argument)

Sorry I accidentally posted the top 15 - but my computer skills are pretty average and can't delete it, so just ignore picks 11-15 and also ignore that they seem just as good as the top 10.

Arguably there's 0-2 star players in the top 10 (depending on your definition of a star).
I'll put it out there that Stephen Coniglio & Chad Wingard are the only two players in the top 10 you could suggest might be (or have been) stars

Which means that there were only 2 possible star top 10 pick players in that draft - so the odds of getting one of them was pretty low if you had a a top 10 pick.

Now Coniglio has cost the Giants & the AFL a lot of cash/salary cap/ ambassador $$$ to retain him
And Port lost Chad for some things that aren't top 10 picks (Burton wasn't a top 10 pick originally, and picks 15 & 35 aren't top 10 picks either)

I feel that Hawthorns strategy on the 2011 draft was pretty solid. Trade away our first pick which was only pick 24 for Jack Gunston. Try and recruit top 10 ruck (Longer) a couple of years later when we desperately needed a ruck (but go with McEvoy instead as we didn't want to overpay). Then a few years later: target the best two of the top 10 (Congilio & Wingard) and also arguably the best non-top 10 player from that draft (Mitchell), and also the best from the mini-draft too (O'Meara).

 

[Ron The Bear]

I make it 28.00 but that's a quick calc. Geelong 27.37.

Second- and sixth-oldest Round 2 teams of all time.

Need to correct this. Database had corona due to a stack of cancelled games but has been given the all clear.

Hawthorn 28.21, Geelong 27.58.

Oldest and fifth-oldest Round 2 teams ever.

Round 1 & 2 teams (28.12, 28.21) are Hawthorn's two oldest ever. Third is the 2015 GF team at 27.83.

 

[Pessimistic]

Not commenting on Hawthorns strategy, but the difference is pretty clear. Drafting a player in the top ten gives you a chance at a star, bringing in an experienced past top ten pick who has already peaked and who has serious injury concerns isn’t giving you a chance at a star.

you get 40% of a known quantity’s career, or a kid who has a 40% chance of making it

and by the way, hawthorn do both

 

[Pessimistic]

Need to correct this. Database had corona due to a stack of cancelled games but has been given the all clear.

Hawthorn 28.21, Geelong 28.58.

Oldest and fifth-oldest Round 2 teams ever.

Round 1 & 2 teams (28.12, 28.21) are Hawthorn's two oldest ever. Third is the 2015 GF team at 27.83.

3 months older between 1 and 2? Cos it was actually 3 months?

 

[Ron The Bear]

3 months older between 1 and 2? Cos it was actually 3 months?

Sorry, not sure what you're referring to. Have corrected Geelong from 28.58 to 27.58.

Hawthorn 28.12 in Round 1

+ (82 days/365) since last game = 28.34
- (difference between O'Meara and Hardwick) / 22 = 0.13
= 28.21

 

[TonaldDrump]

Wingard and Patton played great on Friday night.

 

[iameviljez]

Wingard and Patton played great on Friday night.

Admittedly Wingard was far from his team's worst, while Patton was rubbish but was feeding off scraps, against one of the better fullbacks in the league.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Sorry, not sure what you're referring to. Have corrected Geelong from 28.58 to 27.58.

Hawthorn 28.12 in Round 1

+ (82 days/365) since last game = 28.34
- (difference between O'Meara and Hardwick) / 22 = 0.13
= 28.21

Old teams aren't necessarily a bad thing so long as you are winning

 

[TylerDurden]

Wingard and Patton played great on Friday night.

Wingard 17 and 5 marks. Not great but not bad either. 3 votes r1 too.

Patton 2 games in 2 years. Will take time.

 

[ChappyUK]

I'd have thought Carlton, Melbourne, Gold Coast and GWS have all had enough high draft picks over the years to guarantee at least one flag each - why haven't they?

Because they haven't been able to retain players or have chosen the wrong FA targets. Both just as important and is the balancing act that teams need to master.

If Cats got a Big Boy over Stanley or being able to keep a Mumford I'm sure we would have a couple of extra flags under our belt.

Everything has to go right to win flags these days.

I always thought Hawks had a soft underbelly during the 3peat but you had a good injury run except one year but they were all back by finals.

Once the absolute champs left you were just left with role players who starred in a star team but couldn't take the next step. Shiels, Smith, Gunston, Puopolo, Stratton etc. all serviceable but need a great team around them to be great.
If a Shiels stepped up to be elite it would have been a better story but to had to spend too much capital getting Mitchell and JOM so you had to luck on getting a sun in the 70s.

That lack of bottom end talent is showing. Nothing elite just serviceable players you would expect from the draft range.

 

[ChappyUK]

And no one has really said how a player drafted top ten is desirable, but if you trade in that player, it’s not. Quite a few of the hawks trade ins were high draft picks.

does the same thing apply to Tom lynch?

It's capital spent either trade or salary cap.

Hawk's have had some great trades as in Mitchell, McEvoy, Hale, Lake, Gunston but JOM and Wingard have cost you a lot only to make you competitive not to be the missing piece that gets you that extra step.

 

[blaisee]

Bottom line is the hawks are in for a tough few years

There strategy on collecting as many washed up top draft picks as possible, regardless of age and form and injury to appease the fans will be a disaster

Very little top line talent, and an ageing list will not end well.

People forget, the hawks haven't won a final in 5 years

 

[iameviljez]

Because they haven't been able to retain players or have chosen the wrong FA targets. Both just as important and is the balancing act that teams need to master.

If Cats got a Big Boy over Stanley or being able to keep a Mumford I'm sure we would have a couple of extra flags under our belt.

I don't know if we were *quite* close enough in 2013 for a ruckman to be the sole difference - the other key was a key forward. Hawkins was hobbling with huge back pain by the end of the year and to be honest he's never quite been the same.

 

[Pessimistic]

Bottom line is the hawks are in for a tough few years

There strategy on collecting as many washed up top draft picks as possible, regardless of age and form and injury to appease the fans will be a disaster

Very little top line talent, and an ageing list will not end well.

People forget, the hawks haven't won a final in 5 years

Will seriously start to rebuild after 2022. Anyway 'disaster' brings the early draft picks which I believe Hawthorn will use better than most.

Anyway 'washed up' are you serious? that may be your opinion but I can assure you the strategy is not to seek out 'washed up' players

 

[ChappyUK]

Will seriously start to rebuild after 2022. Anyway 'disaster' brings the early draft picks which I believe Hawthorn will use better than most.

Anyway 'washed up' are you serious? that may be your opinion but I can assure you the strategy is not to seek out 'washed up' players

Not sure 'washed up' is the right word but Scully only runs with zero impact and Patton looks very one dimensional. He needs perfect delivery or good crumbers at his feet and at present he has neither.

Wingard is a good player but he needs to be your Cyril, not just a vanilla midfielder.

 

[Pessimistic]

Not sure 'washed up' is the right word but Scully only runs with zero impact and Patton looks very one dimensional. He needs perfect delivery or good crumbers at his feet and at present he has neither.

Wingard is a good player but he needs to be your Cyril, not just a vanilla midfielder.

As a geelong fan, you'll be aware some mature recruits are busts. Im surprised vickery doesn't get more mentions really

 

[blaisee]

Will seriously start to rebuild after 2022. Anyway 'disaster' brings the early draft picks which I believe Hawthorn will use better than most.

Anyway 'washed up' are you serious? that may be your opinion but I can assure you the strategy is not to seek out 'washed up' players

I don't think it is much of a surprise to anyone that Patton moves like Richard Lounder.

Good to see you have come to the realization that a rebuild is imminent, shame is you have wasted the last few years trying to stay relevant, and it has made the job of rebuilding the side harder and bigger

 

[ChappyUK]

As a geelong fan, you'll be aware some mature recruits are busts. Im surprised vickery doesn't get more mentions really

Are you writing them off already?

Vickery only cost you 500k which would have been handy seeing as you were after a 1m gun.

Clark and McIntosh were busts but cost nothing.

We have our own Vickery in Jenkins but he cost a lot less than Vickery and might still get his 2 goals a game average.