Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Freomaniac]

Clearly this is all an AFL conspiracy to deny us our rightful first flag in the 2020s.

The AFL will stop at nothing to crush us.

yep its the AFLs fault

 

[Freomaniac]

Worrying signs for hawthorn

agreed

 

[Freomaniac]

You can go back at any select point in this thread and see these kind of statements.

My favourite is around 100 pages in, Hawthorn had just beaten a Teague-coached Carlton side and we’re subjected to lectures about the dangers of bringing in bulk draft picks and the impact on club culture…

Not as though any of that rhetoric is incorrect, but it’s funny watching the slow shift in mentality towards celebrating draft pick - largely because Hawks supporters now don’t have a choice.

Very few Hawthorn fans didn’t see the writing on the wall or chose to ignore it.

Dont worry, I have seen the arrogance of hawks fans on this thread.

Go back to part one of this thread. The smugness and arrogance of them when they made top 4 in 2018 was funny. 2018 was a false dawn. Hawks did rely on some older chaps to grind out narrow wins to make finals in 2018.

Dont care who you are, time eventually beats us all. we are all mortals mate.

 

[Gavin Excell]

A few of my own thoughts:

• I still believe we were right to try not going full hard rebuild at the start (i.e. end of our threepeat). Geelong have now demonstrated it is indeed a strategy that can work - as criticised as we and then they were for trying (and Richmond are attempting exactly the same now).
• The reason it didn't work is multifaceted but it's not because we targetted Mitchell and JOM. They were both 23 at the time, most of our flag list were still young enough besides Lewis and Mitchell (who JOM and Tom were to replace), Hawthorn had finished top 4 and both players should have come at an affordable price (Mitchell because he was 5th banana and JOM cos he had missed 2 years of footy).
• Some of the bigger reasons it failed was Roughead got cancer at his peak and was never the same, Rioli unexpectedly retired at 27, we laned 0 of the free agents we targeted (some of whom it is believed made commitments to the club but circumstances changed) and GC 'took a stand' over O'Meara and we ended up paying way more than we should have (because we had committed and did not want to dissuade others from nominating us in future). This trade went to mediations and public appeals for some sense and ended up benefitting StKIlda more than GC anyway.
• Mistakes were definately made though and by the time we traded for Wingard (ironically to replace Rioli) the writing was on the wall and we again coughed up way too much having made the commitment. Other highly criticised trades (Patton, Scully, etc) I don't have an issue with even now as these players cost draft picks that were not even going to be used. They were essentially 'free' players to see if they could offer something.

In terms of now:

• I think it is right that we now look to move on some of our senior players (and look at a harder rebuild as we have been)
• I think it would have been advisable to trade one of O'Meara and Mitchell and not both in an environment with Gunston leaving, McEvoy and Shiels retiring and the sheer amount of senior experience we have lost
• Given the deals received - perhaps trading O'Meara and retaining Mitchell (i.e. we received fair compensation on O'Meara and poor comp on Mitchell) would have been a wiser play as many teams before us have demonstrated that moving on nearly all senior players is not a great strategy - BUT, the deal for Mitchell was a long way down the road it seems before the O'Meara stuff came to fruition, as was Mitchell's desire to get to Collingwood, so options at that stage may have been limited.
• Hawthorn fans may not love this view but for some time they have recommended getting rid of both, highlighting "our midfield is bad", "we may as well, it can't get any worse". On this point, I definitely disagree. Just because a midfield is struggling, doesn't mean it can't get any worse. Of course it can (see Melbourne 10 years ago). Our midfield's issue was more that Tom and JOM had little to no support whereas most teams have 5-7 rotations that were better than our 3rd best mid. Getting rid of your 2 best mids will of course have seen worse results. The good news is, Newcombe has come along, we have some recent draftees that look okay, we've brough in Amon and most importantly, we have a new gameplan that meant we were just as competitive after Mitchell and O'Meara saw less time in there. Still, we are very young (and vulnerable) and I recommend rotating Wingard (with Moore) back through there for his mature body/experience.

Will be a hard road back and need to make every post a winner to return to the latter weeks of finals from here.

Good post

 

[darcytiger]

Hawthorn are clearly trying to make the most of the much talked about “Superdraft” next year. Minimising the amount of meaningless games they will win next year.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

This thread reached it's zenith prior to the 2019 trade period when we stopped trading out first rounders, which was the initial point of the thread, during Clarkson's push to stay up the top.

Somehow though it evolved into 'well the first round isn't really the elite end' when we kept our first rounder in 2019, to 'did Hawthorn win/lose on the weekend' in the last couple of years and now it's somehow a trade period review thread. Seems the main point got lost along the way, and that is that Clarkson's plan to top up and keep going didn't work, as much as many of us all backed him in and wanted it too.

Just change the title to "Where are Hawthorn at?" and be done with it, I reckon.

 

[Gavin Excell]

This thread reached it's zenith prior to the 2019 trade period when we stopped trading out first rounders, which was the initial point of the thread, during Clarkson's push to stay up the top.

Somehow though it evolved into 'well the first round isn't really the elite end' when we kept our first rounder in 2019, to 'did Hawthorn win/lose on the weekend' in the last couple of years and now it's somehow a trade period review thread. Seems the main point got lost along the way, and that is that Clarkson's plan to top up and keep going didn't work, as much as many of us all backed him in and wanted it too.

Just change the title to "Where are Hawthorn at?" and be done with it, I reckon.

Yep
Turn it off

 

[HawkMongrel]

yep its the AFLs fault

The problem with going back into the past to try and wreck someone is you might just miss the context of the comment.

So, as you clearly missed it, I'll explain I was making fun of the AFL shutdown of the league in response to COVID on Mar 22 2020.

AFL suspends season in response to coronavirus, but NRL opts to play on for now

The AFL calls a halt to games until at least May 31 in response to the coronavirus outbreak, but the NRL says it is proceeding until told to stop.

www.abc.net.au

Carry on.

 

[tonygeeks]

This thread reached it's zenith prior to the 2019 trade period when we stopped trading out first rounders, which was the initial point of the thread, during Clarkson's push to stay up the top.

Somehow though it evolved into 'well the first round isn't really the elite end' when we kept our first rounder in 2019, to 'did Hawthorn win/lose on the weekend' in the last couple of years and now it's somehow a trade period review thread. Seems the main point got lost along the way, and that is that Clarkson's plan to top up and keep going didn't work, as much as many of us all backed him in and wanted it too.

Just change the title to "Where are Hawthorn at?" and be done with it, I reckon.

Stick to cleaning out your list and leave BF icons alone thanks [emoji4]

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Stick to cleaning out your list and leave BF icons alone thanks [emoji4]

It's pretty spotless at the moment.

 

[Freomaniac]

That’s not really what happened though.

Hawks won three flags, had another finals finish in 2016, missed in 2017, made the finals in 2018 and have been treading water in the bottom 10 since.

Following the threepeat the Hawks haven’t won a single final which means the list strategy didn’t even come close to being effective. It’s been a slow death roll.

well looking at the 2015 flag the hawks won...

Luke Hodge was 31 years and 110 days old.

Sam Mitchell was 32 years and 356 days old.

The only old Bloke I am glad they carried post 2015 was shaun Burgoyne. I am not a hawks fan. But the only thing Clarkson did from 2016 onwards was Let Shaun Burgoyne play on to reach 400 AFL games.

I look at freos 2012-15 finals squad. The dockers board scorched the earth. Only 3 or 4 blokes from that 2012-5 finals side made it to the 2022 season. they are David Mundy, Michael Walters, Matt Taberner and Nathan Fyfe. Crazy to think a 30 year old mundy in 2015, still hung around as a 37 year old in 2022.

Alex Pearce and Connor Blakely dont technically count. Pearce was from the 2013 draft and Blakely from the 2014 draft. But neither bloke played a final in that 2012-15 period.

When sides go through 5 years of not playing finals, you always assume to grab a bunch of 18-21 year olds. then 5 years down the track, that lot will be 23-26 year olds in their prime to help the club back up the ladder.

But Hawks and Freo had old squads at the end of 2015. Hawks hung on for another couple of years.

Freo went 0-10 in 2016. Only positive i got in that dockers 2016 season was Freo didnt finish bottom or go 0-22. It was a painful season, but at least we acknowledged a heavy rebuild.

 

[The hands of stone]

Oh good this thread is back , again .
Was dead a few years ago when we using our first picks and drafting ......funny that

 

[hawkman]

This thread reached it's zenith prior to the 2019 trade period when we stopped trading out first rounders, which was the initial point of the thread, during Clarkson's push to stay up the top.

Somehow though it evolved into 'well the first round isn't really the elite end' when we kept our first rounder in 2019, to 'did Hawthorn win/lose on the weekend' in the last couple of years and now it's somehow a trade period review thread. Seems the main point got lost along the way, and that is that Clarkson's plan to top up and keep going didn't work, as much as many of us all backed him in and wanted it too.

Just change the title to "Where are Hawthorn at?" and be done with it, I reckon.

Still haven't had a top 5 pick so technically it is still possible to succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft

 

[Blackhawk42]

Maybe I'm in the minority but I don't think Hawthorn will be that bad next year. Bottom 6 fodder sure, but they are that already.

Out best 22 will leave a lot of decent players in the VFL. There is more depth than people may realise.

The hurt will come during those big, tense games when the older, wiser heads do the right thing at the right time to snatch victory. Generally this year when McEvoy played, we won. Mitchell still had the ability to go beast mode in our better performances. Interested to see if the next generation of leaders (Hardwick, Moore, Newcombe) are ready for the extra responsibility.

6/7 wins at best IMO.

The club claims to have changed their planning somewhat after a promising 2022 season saw many breakout players and leaders emerge. They may rate the list better than the rest of us do.

 

[Freomaniac]

I’d like to chat with you mate, but literally none of your comment makes sense to me..

You said Ross Lyon never played youf at the dockers.

He stuck to his core 25-30 players when freo made finals in 2012-15.

then freo goes 0-10 and was crippled with injury. had to play the fringe players and youth.

 

[Shack18]

In for a tough few years but making the right moves for the medium term

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Where is Dominic03

Hi Vindicater!!

 

[Scotland]

La Dispute Gavin Excell Scotland HODGEYROAD and other friends, I am happy to release some of my "gold" from this thread from the past few years if you give me the green light..

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Still haven't had a top 5 pick so technically it is still possible to succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft

When this thread was started the “elite end” being discussed was the first round, after trading out of it for years.

 

[Scotland]

The 3 years prior were the 3 years we were still trying to win.

Not 6.

I mean its terrible that Clarko won 3 in a row then tried for a 4th.

We should have ditched everyone 28 and over and started the rebuild in 2016.

Can we please consign this myth to history?

Crazy Clarko started after the 2016 season. You'd already been shown up with a straight sets exist, albeit Isaac Smith probably should've slotted the goal to win the QF.

If you were trying for a four-peat you wouldn't have let Lake and Hale go.

 

[Scotland]

Yeah, the real fun of the thread was the defensive delusions when they sold the farm for O'Meara it was all good...That was over 5 years ago now.
The names of those posters that were so defensive back then seem to be all quiet as reality sets in, how silly they were but were convinced every post would be a winner back then. The Hawks fans speaking now seem to be the more sensible ones and dealing with reality.

They were so adamant they could top up with a couple of players and everything would be OK because "premiership players". As though Ben Stratton and Matt Suckling and Taylor Duyrea are the nucleus of a great side.

Post 2015, Hawthorn's AA selections were Rioli (2016), Gunston (2018), Breust (2018) + Mitchell (2017/18) who was traded in.

Compare that to Geelong (who are the top-up benchmark) after 2011 and they had Hawkins, Taylor, Mackie, Selwood, Enright make it, then Stewart, Guthrie, Kelly, Blicavs who they drafted, Dangerfield, Cameron, Stengle who they brought in. Daylight in terms of top end talent still on the list and brought in by various means.

Mitchell was a great trade which worked out for all parties. O'Meara was OK but due to Tony Cochrane they overpaid and the only winner was St Kilda. Wasting cap space on Scully, Vickery, Patton, giving up assets for Wingard... yuck. The worst outcome came to bear, that is topping up to be a middling side going nowhere only to then fall off a cliff anyway.

 

[footyfan1978]

They were so adamant they could top up with a couple of players and everything would be OK because "premiership players". As though Ben Stratton and Matt Suckling and Taylor Duyrea are the nucleus of a great side.......The worst outcome came to bear, that is topping up to be a middling side going nowhere only to then fall off a cliff anyway.

Basically. Title of thread has always summed it up. Buddy, Roughead, Hodge etc did not come from anywhere but the top end draft picks..It actually not rocket science

 

[HairyO]

Can we please consign this myth to history?

Crazy Clarko started after the 2016 season. You'd already been shown up with a straight sets exist, albeit Isaac Smith probably should've slotted the goal to win the QF.

If you were trying for a four-peat you wouldn't have let Lake and Hale go.

Yes crazy Clarko started at that exact point when we stopped winning. Before then he was perfectly sensible.

Lake and Hale were cooked. Both admitted they wouldnt have lasted the preseason.

 

[Bradkli]

October 22, 2020

Our key position players heading into 2021:

O’Brien
Patton
Lewis
Hartley
Frost
Hartigan
Jeka
Mcevoy
Koschitzke

With a ruck division of:

Ceglar
Reeves

That is by far the worst in the AFL and arguably the worst in modern AFL/VFL history. There is not a single player on that list that would get a game for any other club next season other than maybe mitch lewis. We will have 7 or 8 of them playing round 1 next season....

If our supporters can still honestly answer “yes” with a straight face to the question in this thread they may as well stop following footy.

Whilst I believe things can change very quickly, like we have seen with the Tigers recently, I just don’t see it with our current list.

We need to cop that we will be bottom 4 or 5 for at least the next 2-3 seasons and hit the draft hard. We are no longer a destination club and Clarko and co need to finally accept that and change their strategy.

April 11, 2021

As I’ve been saying for last 3+ years...Tim O’Brien would have been delisted at just about any other club..Adelaide and north Melbourne included...he is the exact definition of where our list is at..a complete and utter list clogger

Clarkson for the past 2-3 seasons continues to pick sides that he thinks can get cheap wins, when deep down he knows how bad his team is...it’s like clockwork..

after hearing him speak pre-season, he finally admitted we couldn’t play finals this season and we are rebuilding, yet he continues to pick players like O’Brien, ceglar, Hartley, Burgoyne, Daniel Howe. There wouldn’t be a side in the league with a worse bottom 5 players that get to play just about every week. We go into every game now, knowing exactly what will happen when those players play.

It’s the same as our supporters that continue to try and justify our trading in of O'meara and wingard...straight out of the Clarko book...we are going to be a bottom 4-5 side with them for the next 2-3 years....that’s 50+ games we could have got into 4+ talented youngsters at least.


April 18, 2021

Love reading our board that I was banned from 18 months ago because “I’m a Geelong troll”...every single post I’ve made on this thread for the past two years has legitimately happened and gets written about now on a weekly basis...

incredible to think that the majority of our supporters actually thought things were not that bad...even more amazing is they probably still think we are a chance at playing finals in 3 years time...we are a lock for bottom 4-5 this season and next and a good chance in 2023...bookmark this!!

We are not improving whilst players like Tim O’Brien, Shaun Burgoyne, Daniel howe, Kyle hartigan, Connor Nash, Jonathan ceglar and Tom Phillips continue to play on a regular basis.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

So, what I'm read8ng is hawthorn is going to go backwards because players who did nothing have left

I'm also reading lack of experienced bodies will make blow-outs worse, ignoring the fact that 1. The young players have been there for a few years (only 1 or two will be new), and 2. The blow outs happened this year. Hell, we lost by nearly 12 goals to stkilda TWICE