Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Pessimistic]

Mussing finals is good or bad? cant have it both ways.
get pick 11 - hawks finally get an 'elite' pick, best since 2008
finish 9th - proof they need more early draft picks

 

[TylerDurden]

Indeed - every team has injuries yet this bloody injury to Mitchell is spoken about like its had more impact on your team that injuries other teams experience. Stop using Mitchell's injury as an excuse for missing the finals

It's more an indictment on the midfield depth that they couldn't cover him early. Until Worpel exploded and Chad hit his straps in the back end of the year.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Indeed - every team has injuries yet this bloody injury to Mitchell is spoken about like its had more impact on your team that injuries other teams experience. Stop using Mitchell's injury as an excuse for missing the finals

Yeah look, imma let you finish, but I would almost garauntee that if we went back to January we’d find you posting that “Hawthorn are cooked with Mitchell going down”.

 

[Marcel Proust]

By not making the finals ,it was indeed proven hawthorn were cooked, without its talisman.

 

[matey]

By not making the finals ,it was indeed proven hawthorn were cooked, without its talisman.

Is that like recently when Tigers were cooked finishing 13th in 2016 and then won it the following year. This shows the comp is as even as it has ever been and it can change quickly ....... none of the dribble from all the oppo’s on here can dampen our optimism!

 

[HeHateMe]

 

[HeHateMe]

Attacking Hodge? Um, no? Just correctly pointing out that the Bont gave him a bath in the 2016 semi. Again, that is a fact you cannot deny.


Attacking Worpel? All I said was that he's not a certain A grader.

You Hawthorn supporters are something else, I swear. Unless someone fully accepts all of your players are guns and Hawthorn are perfect in every way, they're "attacking" your players.

[emoji108]

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Lost you? You never intended to change your mind to begin with. As far as people like you are concerned, Worpel is already a superstar champion legend top 5 player in the competition. If you were held at gunpoint and told to change your mind, you still probably wouldn't...


It's funny seeing people like you try to shift the focus off Bont with a petty attempt to pump up Stringer.

Bont destroyed your mob that night, and he especially slaughtered Hodge in his last final as a Hawthorn player. Nothing you say will change that. Some of his big plays on the night even made his end of season highlights package:

Wow, young superstar in his prime takes apart old legend when his best years were well behind him. Who'd have thought?

Hodge won 2 Norm Smith Medals and captained 3 premiership teams. Bontempelli is a nobody by comparison.

 

[Foucault1989]

Yeah look, imma let you finish, but I would almost garauntee that if we went back to January we’d find you posting that “Hawthorn are cooked with Mitchell going down”.

Didn't happen. I thought you were cooked with or without Mitchell

 

[The Chad and I]

There is a persistent myth about the perfect (or even ideal) list profile, but the inept statistical analysis of list demographics renders most discussions of this nature to be pointless.

Given 4 successive Grand Finals is going to impede your ability to recruit quality on your list, I am extremely happy with how Hawthorn have managed to rejuvenate the list.

We have a core of elite players as good as most clubs and our developing younger players are highly promising.
...and we aren't done yet.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Didn't happen. I thought you were cooked with or without Mitchell

#fail

 

[Foucault1989]

#fail

Is finishing 9th a successful year for the great and mighty Hawthorn who according to their fans are on the cusp of a flag?
#fail

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Is finishing 9th a successful year for the great and mighty Hawthorn who according to their fans are on the cusp of a flag?
#fail

Nah, but this “cooked” side didn’t finish in the bottom 4 like one other club I could mention who seems to reserve their place there each year.

 

[Xtreme]

Nah, but this “cooked” side didn’t finish in the bottom 4 like one other club I could mention who seems to reserve their place there each year.

A certain club has sacked more coaches while Hawthorn has won premierships over the same time period!!

 

[Foucault1989]

Nah, but this “cooked” side didn’t finish in the bottom 4 like one other club I could mention who seems to reserve their place there each year.

Ahhhhhh sorry I didn't realise you didn't pick up on the as a tongue in cheek comment.

I guess it's all a matter of perspective. Carlton have been rebuilding from scratch, which historically suggests involves finishing down the bottom. Hawthorn have recently descended from the top of the tower, still have some remnants of those glory days whilst trying to aggressively top up their list with long term injury cheapies (Patton, Scully and to a lesser extent Omera as he cost a bit more naturally), talented players from other clubs with upside (Scrimshaw and Wingard although the latter has proven his quality in the past), a gun mid (Titch) and work horses (Henderson for example). This has been sprinkled with some late draft gems (Mitchell and Worpel).

It will keep you guys competitive but even you have to admit it is a bit of a gamble in some respects. It's like you're hanging off the side of a cliff just hanging on by topping up. To sustain your current position you simply have to keep topping up. There may come a time when the list looks a bit foot soldier like but we shall see

 

[HeHateMe]

admit it is a bit of a gamble

The thing is bottoming out is also a gamble. The drafts a Lottery, luck needs to be on your side to land Franklins, Mitchells and Riolis instead of Dowlers, Thorps and Mustons.

The reason this thread is going ang going is because not one hawthorn supporter is upset that hawks have done things differently. We applaud the club for attempting to be innovate and not being reactivate.

After a 3 peat the club has earned the right to.

If it works it will change the game.

Imo we are at the half way mark.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

hodge, roughead, franklin, lewis, ellis, birchill, bailey, rioli, is 'elite end'

yes, its good the hawks have some upcoming f/s / academy players. They gunna need it

Mitchell, McEvoy, JOM, Frawley, Wingard, Scully, Scrimshaw, Patton and this year's pick 11 are also within the arbitrary scale you have used to define 'elite end'.

Pretty weak point.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

The thing is bottoming out is also a gamble. The drafts a Lottery, luck needs to be on your side to land Franklins, Mitchells and Riolis instead of Dowlers, Thorps and Mustons.

The reason this thread is going ang going is because not one hawthorn supporter is upset that hawks have done things differently. We applaud the club for attempting to be innovate and not being reactivate.

After a 3 peat the club has earned the right to.

If it works it will change the game.

Imo we are at the half way mark.

Thread summed up nicely. From what I have seen here and on our board, Hawks fans seem pretty happy with the way the club is making the best of it after the end of the greatest eras ever and there are a few oppo fans who dont like seeing optimistic Hawks.

Throw in a couple of absolute bargains at the draft and trade table in the past couple of years (Worpel, Lewis, Paton, Scully) and this thread is never going to go away.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

No-one can argue Hawthorn didn't do the right thing 2012-2016. You have to go for it when you are close. (In the eyes of some, they started the rebuild too early, pensioning off Hale and Lake for lesser replacements).

Sides that have rebuilt and won flags from multiple consecutive top-10 picks in the last decade:

2016 - Bulldogs: TRADE - Boyd; DRAFT - Bontempelli, Stringer, Macrae. Missed finals 5/7 years around premiership.

Sides that have won flags after bringing in elite talent via trade in the last decade:

Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn...2011-2015

2017 - Richmond: TRADE - Caddy, Prestia, Yarran; DRAFT - Cotchin, Martin, Conca, Vlastuin. Missed finals ELEVEN consecutive years before climbing. Took 5 years from last top-10 draft pick to win premiership.
2018 - West Coast: TRADE - Kennedy ; DRAFT - Naitanui, Masten, Gaff, Shephard. Missed finals 5/6 years during draft period. Took EIGHT years from last top-10 draft pick to win premiership.
2019 - Richmond: TRADE - Caddy, Prestia; DRAFT - Cotchin, Martin, Conca, Vlastuin. Missed finals ELEVEN consecutive years. Took FIVE years from last top-10 draft pick to win premiership.

2020 - Hawthorn: TRADE - O'Meara, Scully, Patton, Wingard, Scrimshaw, McEvoy. Missed finals TWICE in the last Decade. 3 years from last top-10 draft pick....

Considering how much better Hawthorn have been than anyone else over the last decade, it's incredible they have the amount of 'elite' players on their list - as many as any of the last decades premiers.

Based on other history, the alternative was 5+ years out of finals contention to stockpile picks, then another 5+ years to grow to being in contention.

10 years of failure just for a chance, or work with what you have to be thereabouts in 2-3 years?

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

"No" team huh. As a Carlton supporter we have missed our co-captain, former best and fairest and All Australian defender for two bloody years but you don't see Carlton posters mention it in every bloody post. Why? Because every team gets injuries. Every team loses their best players. West Coast with Nic Nat, GWS have been decimated, Richmond with Rance. Seriously find me a team from the past three years who hasnt lost key players to injuries. Maybe Brisbane?

'every bloody post'?! You quoted one post man.

Stop getting outraged for no reason, its bad for you.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

I cannot believe every Hawthorn supporter thinks Worpel is better than Bont and Dusty lol.

Not just individually, Worpel is better than a Dustompelli hybrid would be. You know it.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Mitchell, McEvoy, JOM, Frawley, Wingard, Scully, Scrimshaw, Patton and this year's pick 11 are also within the arbitrary scale you have used to define 'elite end'.

Pretty weak point.

the difference is they are recycled players and hawthorn has an old list

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

the difference is they are recycled players and hawthorn has an old list

4th, but take out Burgoyne (24.2) and we'd be 15th. It's a complete fallacy.

AFL Club Lists for 2020 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Following on that thoughtline - if every club filled the remaining list with draftees (noting there will no doubt be some DFA picks and mature players), then the average ages for 2020 will be:

West Coast	24.81579​
Collingwood	24.62105​
Geelong	24.62105​
North Melbourne	24.53947​
Western Bulldogs	24.42632​
Essendon	24.35526​
Greater Western Sydney	24.26316​
Hawthorn	24.23158​
St Kilda	24.17105​
Port Adelaide	23.97895​
Richmond	23.90526​
Carlton	23.89474​
Melbourne	23.80263​
Gold Coast	23.77895​
Adelaide	23.64211​
Fremantle	23.47105​
Brisbane	23.45789​
Sydney	23.22105​

Richmond perhaps showing the way towards the next dynasty is a decade down the bottom, (followed by 5 years of development and then 5 at the top).

 

[Pessimistic]

After 2002-2006 at the bottom, hawks went the ‘accepted knowledge’ rebuild and spent 2011-2016 at the top.

They nailed that bette than any other team, except mayb the lions who went from last to first between 1998 and 2001

Now the hawks chose to do it differently, but can see geelong or swans who spent time at the top but hadnt been near the bottom for a good while. Theyre are precedents, but the hawks approach is subtly different