Can we finish top 2?

[rezagun]

I think were primed for a top 2 finish.
Play the 16,17,18 ranked teams in the next 3 weeks our % will rise.
4/5 of our games at 'home'..
We havent lost a game against a club outside the 8 all year unlike geelong. Last week was our worst performance for the year margin wise and we have minimal injuries. Win the showdown and we will be top 2.
Its in our hands.

 

[Mattrox]

Its in our hands.

This x1000.

We will get a sense of our group by how they go about the rest of the season.

 

[Tex200]

I think were primed for a top 2 finish.
Play the 16,17,18 ranked teams in the next 3 weeks our % will rise.
4/5 of our games at 'home'..
We havent lost a game against a club outside the 8 all year unlike geelong. Last week was our worst performance for the year margin wise and we have minimal injuries. Win the showdown and we will be top 2.
Its in our hands.

We're currently 6th so getting to top 4 even is not entirely in our hands let alone top 2.

We need a team above us to drop a game, or we need their wins to be restricted.

All that + we need to take care of our own business with some big wins.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

We're currently 6th so getting to top 4 even is not entirely in our hands let alone top 2.

We need a team above us to drop a game, or we need their wins to be restricted.

All that + we need to take care of our own business with some big wins.

I remember one year we had to barrack for a draw between Brisbane and Melbourne in the last round to be a chance to make finals. It was the game that Shaun Smith took that screamer at the Gabba.

 

[SmegHead]

I'm probably just repeating things that have already been said in this thread but whatevs.

Just did my own Ladder Predictor. Being as conservative and realistic as possible we can finish 2nd by winning every game, the next 2 weeks by a lot and the last 3 by about 5 goals or so. Unfortunately we are going to have to rely on Norf and the Dogs to do us some favours and win games they will probably find tough, namely Dogs vs Cats this Friday, and Norf beating Sydney and Giants in the last 2 rounds. Would also be helpful if they can sack up and beat Hawks for us too.
Maybe Kern could also be kind and inspire Port to beat Sydney for us?

I have Geelong and Sydney also winning every game from here but as long as they dont get on the better side of a couple of thrashings (easily possible with their draws) we could be lucky.

Sadly tho, while my heart hopes that things will fall in our favour for once, my brain is expecting us to end up 4th and facing Hawks (probably the worst possible matchup), or 5th with a home knockout vs North.

 

[Niximus]

We're currently 6th so getting to top 4 even is not entirely in our hands let alone top 2.

We need a team above us to drop a game, or we need their wins to be restricted.

All that + we need to take care of our own business with some big wins.

The teams % ahead of us being West Coast, Geelong, Sydney and GWS, we need two of them to lose at least 1 of their next 5.

If we win our next 5, then West Coast is taken care of.

So we'd need one of these 15 games to go in our favour to get top 4. 4 of them have a reasonable chance of an upset IMO.

Geelong v Western Bulldogs
Sydney v Fremantle
GWS v Richmond

Geelong v Essendon
Sydney v Port
GWS v Gold Coast

Geelong v Richmond
Sydney v St Kilda
GWS v West Coast

Geelong v Brisbane
Sydney v North Melbourne
GWS v Fremantle

Geelong v Melbourne
Sydney v Richmond
GWS v North Melbourne

I think we're a fair chance of 4th, but really, we want to hit 3rd much, much more.

If we finish 4th, we play the Hawks at the G. A likely loss, then we would face the winner of 5 v 8 at home. If we finish 4th, I think this will be Sydney, tough game.

If we finish 3rd, we play 2nd, probably Geelong at the MCG, possibly GWS. If GWS I'd back us to win, Geelong less likely, but would front up the next week at home against the winner of 6 v 7 which I think would most likely be West Coast and the Bulldogs.

 

[Niximus]

I'm probably just repeating things that have already been said in this thread but whatevs.

Just did my own Ladder Predictor. Being as conservative and realistic as possible we can finish 2nd by winning every game, the next 2 weeks by a lot and the last 3 by about 5 goals or so. Unfortunately we are going to have to rely on Norf and the Dogs to do us some favours and win games they will probably find tough, namely Dogs vs Cats this Friday, and Norf beating Sydney and Giants in the last 2 rounds. Would also be helpful if they can sack up and beat Hawks for us too.
Maybe Kern could also be kind and inspire Port to beat Sydney for us?

I have Geelong and Sydney also winning every game from here but as long as they dont get on the better side of a couple of thrashings (easily possible with their draws) we could be lucky.

Sadly tho, while my heart hopes that things will fall in our favour for once, my brain is expecting us to end up 4th and facing Hawks (probably the worst possible matchup), or 5th with a home knockout vs North.

On the plus side, if we do finish 5th and get North at home, I'd back us to win that. Then the SF I think would most likely be the Giants, as I think if we're 5th, Sydney will be 4th and Geelong will beat GWS in the QF.

A North > GWS wouldn't be the worst path to a PF.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

I think we're a fair chance of 4th, but really, we want to hit 3rd much, much more.

Do we though? I'm more confident vs Hawthorn than Geelong at the moment.

 

[SmegHead]

Ideally we would like Hawthorn to have a couple of shock losses, maybe to Carlton and Collingwood. They beat Geelong so shouldn't be completely impossible. Would like them to be brought down off their high horse before the finals.

 

[rezagun]

Im telling you people geelong will lose 1 of their 5 remaining games. It will most likely be richmond. Its happened all year, they will do it again.

 

[Hell Boy6669]

I'd prefer hawks in melb then Geelong in Geelong or Sydney in Sydney.

 

[Niximus]

Do we though? I'm more confident vs Hawthorn than Geelong at the moment.

I'd be more confident with Hawthorn than Geelong, yes, but in both cases I'd put us <50% away from home.

Playing Hawthorn 1st up only helps if we actually win. If we lose and have to play the 5th placed team we're a stronger chance of going out in straight sets. Then even winning we'd have a Geelong PF.

Face Geelong first up and if we do lose, get an easier opponent in the SF and then get Hawthorn for a spot in the GF.

 

[Niximus]

I'd prefer hawks in melb then Geelong in Geelong or Sydney in Sydney.

Geelong would be at the G.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Ideally we would like Hawthorn to have a couple of shock losses, maybe to Carlton and Collingwood. They beat Geelong so shouldn't be completely impossible. Would like them to be brought down off their high horse before the finals.

They play WC in Perth…no guarantee to win.

Then just need 1 more loss.

 

[Moonwatcher]

I remember one year we had to barrack for a draw between Brisbane and Melbourne in the last round to be a chance to make finals. It was the game that Shaun Smith took that screamer at the Gabba.

Would have possibly extended Shaw's stay by a year leaving the Crows without a premiership to it's name... Sliding doors.

 

[Moonwatcher]

I think the Crows will lose one of Port, Freo and WCE leaving us in the lower 4.

 

[Big Gazoongas]

I think were primed for a top 2 finish.
Play the 16,17,18 ranked teams in the next 3 weeks our % will rise.
4/5 of our games at 'home'..
We havent lost a game against a club outside the 8 all year unlike geelong. Last week was our worst performance for the year margin wise and we have minimal injuries. Win the showdown and we will be top 2.
Its in our hands.

Not out of the question!!
I did the ladder predictor and came up with the following

Round 19 winners
Cats
Giants
Hawks
Pies
Roos
Swans
Crows

Round 20 winners
Swans
Hawks
Giants
Crows
Roos
Eagles
Cats

Round 21 winners
Pies
Roos
Giants
Swans
Crows
Richmond

Round 22 winners
Eagles
Roos
Giants
Crows
Cats
Dogs

Round 23 winners
Hawks
Crows
Sydney
Freo
Roos
Cats

Ladder finished at:
Crows 68
Hawks 68
Giants 64
Swans 64
Cats 64
Roos 64
Eagles 56
Dogs 52

If we win all our remaining games we should make top 4. % and other results will determine where in the top 4 we end up at. We probably also have room to drop a game and still make the top 4 but absolutely tight with %.

Its going to go down to the wire I reckon.

 

[Jack is Back]

We need to catch up approximately 12 goals to match GWS percentage and around 8 goals for Sydney, Geelong and West Coast.

If we win our last 5 games, I am willing to bet a case of Grange that we will be in the top four and probably in the top two.

The team most likely to keep us out of second position is Geelong. They still have their second attempt to improve their percentage against both Essendon and Brisbane (cheating f###in VFL). They will also know exactly what is required in Round 23. Hopefully Melbourne have not put the cue in the rack by Round 23.

I was in Darwin when the Dons played St Kilda. I had performed microsurgery on the stats and I was absolutely certain we would be fine.

Then it slowly unfolded, right before my eyes.......................

 

[pjcrows]

I'd have a crack at Hawthorn at the G in a Friday Night Qualifying Final... take them out early.

 

[BRL121]

I think the Crows will lose one of Port, Freo and WCE leaving us in the lower 4.

It's certainly a possibility, but it won't be WCE at home.

 

[BRL121]

Not out of the question!!
I did the ladder predictor and came up with the following

Round 19 winners
Cats
Giants
Hawks
Pies
Roos
Swans
Crows

Round 20 winners
Swans
Hawks
Giants
Crows
Roos
Eagles
Cats

Round 21 winners
Pies
Roos
Giants
Swans
Crows
Richmond

Round 22 winners
Eagles
Roos
Giants
Crows
Cats
Dogs

Round 23 winners
Hawks
Crows
Sydney
Freo
Roos
Cats

Ladder finished at:
Crows 68
Hawks 68
Giants 64
Swans 64
Cats 64
Roos 64
Eagles 56
Dogs 52

If we win all our remaining games we should make top 4. % and other results will determine where in the top 4 we end up at. We probably also have room to drop a game and still make the top 4 but absolutely tight with %.

Its going to go down to the wire I reckon.

Were you on the turps? There's no way th Roos will win all their matches, for example!

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Obviously we have to win all 5 games and I think we will. We haven't dropped any games yet to any non top 8 sides so I'm not sure why people are thinking we will drop one. We also need to smash Essendon & Brisbane as much as we can.......let's hope for good weather for those games cause that will help. If we make top 4 I don't think it will make much difference who we play really, they're all quality sides so who ever it is we just have to beat them. We've played well in all of our games at the MCG this year..... yes even in our loss to the Hawks! If we have to confront the Cats, as I've said in another thread I think the wider spaces of the MCG will help our game so I'm not too worried about them. If we're good enough we'll make it to the big dance.. .bring it on

 

[Geoffa32]

If the weather is fine we should pump the bombers by 150.

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[BRL121]

We need to catch up approximately 12 goals to match GWS percentage and around 8 goals for Sydney, Geelong and West Coast.

If we win our last 5 games, I am willing to bet a case of Grange that we will be in the top four and probably in the top two.

The team most likely to keep us out of second position is Geelong. They still have their second attempt to improve their percentage against both Essendon and Brisbane (cheating f###in VFL). They will also know exactly what is required in Round 23. Hopefully Melbourne have not put the cue in the rack by Round 23.

I was in Darwin when the Dons played St Kilda. I had performed microsurgery on the stats and I was absolutely certain we would be fine.

Then it slowly unfolded, right before my eyes.......................

The sums have already been done and discussed, and it's much more than 12 goals to catch GWS!
I agree with the bolded, though. Unlikely top two without considerable help from oppo. Remember, we play the last match on the Friday night. I can see us matching GWS percentage after the next two weeks, but then I can see myself having nightmares about them overtaking us by 0.1% in the last round with the help of their opponents.

 

[Geoffa32]

The sums have already been done and discussed, and it's much more than 12 goals to catch GWS!
I agree with the bolded, though. Unlikely top two without considerable help from oppo. Remember, we play the last match on the Friday night. I can see us matching GWS percentage after the next two weeks, but then I can see myself having nightmares about them overtaking us by 0.1% in the last round with the help of their opponents.

I personally think Norf will beat GWS in the final round....

If they win it won't be a percentage booster.
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