Carey the stats accumulator

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Senior List
Sep 20, 2015
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North Melbourne
Carey is widely recognised as the GOAT or at the minimum a top 3 GOAT candidate. This doesn't need much more attention. Playing the most important and difficult position on the field, captain of the side, unbeatable in contested marking, physical and intimidating as f#ck, booting goals from 60m out, these are the aspects of Carey that most of the general public will remember most.

I'm no different, I will always think of those aspects first when remembering Carey play. But there are a few other aspects to Carey that also inspire awe in me. One of those aspects is Carey the disposals accumulator. This may be one aspect that helps paint the complete picture when Leigh Matthews talks of Carey as his number one because he helped the team win in more ways than any other player could. I think back to the 99 grand final when Carey went into the midfield to rack up pivotal touches in quick succession to steady North in that critical 3rd quarter. I remember Carey mopping up everything in the backline. But what I didn't realise was Carey was also doing this as a CHF. It might just be his highlight reel marks and goals that distracted me from the fact that Carey is a GOAT forward possession accumulator too.

I actually think that Carey's total number of goals compared to other legendary CHFs doesn't stand out. Carey's best effort was 82 goals in 96, which is a total that the next tier like Brown, Tredrea, Hall, Riewoldt, etc. all got close to. Franklin and Richardson had seasons where they kicked more goals than Carey. Even marks, where I'd assume Carey was miles ahead of others, he wasn't. He was elite but players like Riewoldt and Richardson had better years. Not sure about contested marks though. Remember, just from a pure raw stats point of view. But where Carey popped out a bit more compared to the rest is the total amount of disposals he racked up per game. If you combine this with Carey's other traditional power forward metrics, you have the complete package.

Carey's career averages
GamesDisposals per gameMarks per gameGoals per game
27216.56.72.7

Carey's career disposals per game at 16.5 (this includes his first few seasons and his last few seasons where he's averaging just over 11 disposals per game are still higher or comparable to the elite forwards of the game in their prime seasons. I compared Franklin, Tredrea, Brown, and Riedwoldt.

PlayerPrime SeasonsGamesDisposals
Franklin2007-1825616.2
Tredrea2001-0512016.2
Brown2006-109315.9
Riedwoldt2004-1014716.9

Side notes: Buddy has insane longevity and has 12 quality seasons that I would consider prime years. I considered Richardson, Grant, and Ablett Snr as well. Richardson has crazy numbers but doesn't seem to seasons where it all peaks, Grant was a tier below, and Ablett Snr wasn't a CHF though his 1989 is probably the most comparable to Carey's peak seasons by numbers. And lastly, I didn't consider Riedwoldt's utility playing seasons too - he actually averaged over 20 disposals per game in 2016, but would consider that way past his peak CHF playing days.

So, hopefully that sets the scene for Carey's uniquely high disposal game compared to some other great CHFs. Now, let's check out Carey's prime season stats:

Prime SeasonsGamesDisposals
1993-0017018.4

Carey averaged 18.4 disposals per game over 170 games across 8 seasons. That's a superior disposal rate than the other four mentioned. This also includes Carey's injury interrupted 97 season. If you remove that, his disposals per game increases to 18.6. The numbers look good, but then when you compare eras and the relative disposals per game from Carey's prime years to basically the 00s and 10s, it get's even wilder.

Consider Carey's arguably peak seasons of 96 and 98:
SeasonDisposalsAFL rank
199619.452
199819.642

From a quick scan curtesy of Footywire, Carey is the number one ranked key forward (or possibly any full-time forward though didn't really thoroughly check) for disposals per game. But league-wide, Carey was top 50 in 98, and just about in 96. I know not an exact match as the game has changed, but for some context, this season's #42 in disposals per game was Lachie Whitfield averaging 25.0 per game! That's pretty impressive for a powerhouse forward like Carey to also rack up possessions as well. I won't even go into how good he was with his disposal too. It's a shame that stats like goal assists weren't recorded because Carey would dominate that stat as well.

Rarely do I hear anyone mention this aspect of Carey's game, but aside from his GOAT goal kicking, contested marking, and dominance of the game, I think his ability to win the ball and distribute as a CHF separates him even further from the rest of the pack.
 
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You can analyse stats all day long to rank players, but the true measure of Carey's greatness was when the game had to be won.

We knew it, the opposition knew it, he knew it... you could put 3 defenders on him with 15m left in the last quarter, and he would still win the game for us. Even if he didn't kick a goal himself, he'd feed Allison, or another forward goals.

His goal assists, passing off either left or right foot, handballs over the top were game winning. Dusty Martin is the only player since who has the similar level of presence.
 
One of the best things Wayne did was make the opposition supporters groan. They knew what was coming.
Rd. 20 1999 v Saints at Antarctic Park.
Saints supporting Dad behind us to his kids; " l thought Plugger was good, watch this bloke "

16 k 8 hb 14 m 5 goals. Reckon he gave away 4 as well.
Toyed with the whole St. Kilda backline.
 
20 & 2 for a season is a pretty difficult stat to attain.

It happens, but not every year or even every other year.

In 98 Carey went 19.6 and 3.2.

That is insanely good.

20 & 2? Pretty much none have achieved that in the last 20 years.

In the midfielder stat supercharged era, Ablett achieved 32 and 1.6 and 23 and 1.7 (still insane years). When Martin had his record breaking Brownlow year he had 29 & 1.5 and won the brownlow by a record margin.

The closest Franklin got was around 18 disposals in 2011/2012. The rest of his career he's been hovering around 14-16 disposals.


Bont, Petracca and Martin were the only mids to average even 20 & 1 this season.


In Carey's era when the top possession getter in the side often got 20-25 disposals a game, that season from Carey is probably the equivalent of a CHF averaging almost 30 disposals a game in todays disposal numbers.
 
Pretty much none have achieved that in the last 20 years.

Stevie J in 2008, was the instance I knew happened so didn't use stronger language.

however that isn't recent by a stretch.

I'm just old....
 
Rubbing it in a bit here but I feel sorry for the North supporters who didn't have the pleasure of seeing the king play live. All the other players mentioned above were great player's but Carey was the greatest.

I remember my old man would always talk about Blight when I was a kid, who I just missed out of watching play for North then I was lucky enough to witness Carey.

The draft is only around the corner and for the first time we have the first pick and let's hope he turns into the type of player to drag people to the footy like a Blight and Carey because North supporters are definitely due.
 
Rubbing it in a bit here but I feel sorry for the North supporters who didn't have the pleasure of seeing the king play live. All the other players mentioned above were great player's but Carey was the greatest.

I remember my old man would always talk about Blight when I was a kid, who I just missed out of watching play for North then I was lucky enough to witness Carey.

The draft is only around the corner and for the first time we have the first pick and let's hope he turns into the type of player to drag people to the footy like a Blight and Carey because North supporters are definitely due.


Wayne was the greatest, Blight not far behind. I just about saw every game Greig played. Just as good.
 

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Most meaningful stat to me was the number of exasperations uttered by commentators when he would do what he did time and again. The amount of times they were lost for words and just made noises out of their throats still defies belief.
The stat you cannot measure is the number of times a touch of Carey brilliance would lift the whole team. We would be struggling and Carey would pull a move or two out of his clacker, usually around his brute strength, and the whole team would just lift. I still say Carey won more games of his own back than any other player I have ever seen. But there's no stat for that.
 
It would be good to objectively compare how many defenders he had trying to get him into a headlock as part of their “legitimate defence” compared to Grant, Franklin & Richardson…

The criminal thing about this is that he routinely had a negative discrepancy with frees for and frees against. In 98, he gave away 34 frees to 27, in 99 he gave away 34 and only received 18 frees! If the umpiring was at least neutral, I think Carey and North may have had a few more goals and wins over the years...
 
The criminal thing about this is that he routinely had a negative discrepancy with frees for and frees against. In 98, he gave away 34 frees to 27, in 99 he gave away 34 and only received 18 frees! If the umpiring was at least neutral, I think Carey and North may have had a few more goals and wins over the years...
Compare him to Steve "don't touch him" Silvagni who predominantly played full back over the same two years.

1998: 31 FF 21 FA
1999: 27 FF 25 FA
 
The stat you cannot measure is the number of times a touch of Carey brilliance would lift the whole team. We would be struggling and Carey would pull a move or two out of his clacker, usually around his brute strength, and the whole team would just lift. I still say Carey won more games of his own back than any other player I have ever seen. But there's no stat for that.

I'd actually love to write about this in the future. This is the most brilliant of all aspects to Carey's game - after all, it's all about winning. From 93 to 2000, when Carey was playing, North won 71.1% of those games. Extrapolated to 22 games, that's 15.7 wins per season - that's pretty much the number of wins we had in 1996, a premiership-level winning win rate. When Carey was absent, North only won 50% of those games. That's the best that I can do in terms of pure win-loss impact, it probably undersells the quality of the rest of the North side a bit, but at the same time, it also makes complete sense given how important Carey was structurally to North, and all the intangibles that Carey brought to the team as mentioned above.
 
I'd actually love to write about this in the future. This is the most brilliant of all aspects to Carey's game - after all, it's all about winning. From 93 to 2000, when Carey was playing, North won 71.1% of those games. Extrapolated to 22 games, that's 15.7 wins per season - that's pretty much the number of wins we had in 1996, a premiership-level winning win rate. When Carey was absent, North only won 50% of those games. That's the best that I can do in terms of pure win-loss impact, it probably undersells the quality of the rest of the North side a bit, but at the same time, it also makes complete sense given how important Carey was structurally to North, and all the intangibles that Carey brought to the team as mentioned above.

I can't be arsed with the stats, but I am sure someone with a mastermind could crunch the same numbers with other greats, either in his position or in the midfield.
 
Both Carey and brereton were done by 27
The body bashing reared havoc on their bodies
If Carey had lead heaps upfield the toll on his body would have lessened the damage to his shoulders and neck and extended his career and increased his possessions.
The question is how it would have affected his value to the team ?
 
I can't be arsed with the stats, but I am sure someone with a mastermind could crunch the same numbers with other greats, either in his position or in the midfield.

Difficulty arises in what you are comparing.

the further back you go the less reliable stats become.

Compare Carey's 98 to Franklin's 11(picked at random) on footywire there are 10 in game metrics for Carey vs 20 for Franklin. In AFLtables there are more metrics but comparison would be more manual.

I think there are 2 stats that would be telling. Goal Assists and Contested marks. for this I looked more broadly over their careers.

AFL tables only tracks contested marks from 1999 and goal assists rom 2003. Meaning that for most of his best years those stats are not tracked.

looking at Contested marks the most Franklin ever took in a season was 64. and he only broke 60 once.

in 98 and 99 Carey took 66.

In terms of goal assists Franklin has averaged greater than 1 in one season. As did Carey. Again this is almost apples to oranges comparison. That stat was only tracked for 2 years of his career. No goal assists listed as a roo. so in his declining years he averaged nearly what Franklin did in a peak year. I fair assumption (IMO) would be in his peak years he likely would have averaged far greater than that.

However it is also worth noting that Carey played in an era where scoring heavily was a major thing. We have sat through years where league wide we averaged less than a side a round breaking 100 points.

Apples/oranges the bloke was the GOAT.

 
Both Carey and brereton were done by 27
The body bashing reared havoc on their bodies
If Carey had lead heaps upfield the toll on his body would have lessened the damage to his shoulders and neck and extended his career and increased his possessions.
The question is how it would have affected his value to the team ?

Done at 27? Duck was 27 in 98 and he *en dominated.
 
Rubbing it in a bit here but I feel sorry for the North supporters who didn't have the pleasure of seeing the king play live. All the other players mentioned above were great player's but Carey was the greatest.

I remember my old man would always talk about Blight when I was a kid, who I just missed out of watching play for North then I was lucky enough to witness Carey.

The draft is only around the corner and for the first time we have the first pick and let's hope he turns into the type of player to drag people to the footy like a Blight and Carey because North supporters are definitely due.

I was a touch young to truly appreciate him however I at least had the privilege of seeing him live. Particularly used to watch a lot of games live from that period of late 80's into mid 90's. My strongest memory of Carey is seeing him run up the wing in a game (sometime in the early / mid 90's) with literally 3 opponents hanging off his jumper for most of the time without him even having the ball - and he would still win contests and outmark opponents. That was when he was at his absolute peak.
 

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