List Mgmt. Carlton's 2019 Draft Thread

[TheGeneralmeg]

If I remember correctly, wasn't Oea very, very highly rated at the U/16's level? What happened to the point where he's barely talked about now?

Apparently the Suns under the new concessions can prelist Budarick, Gore and Rosa as rookies only get Oea under an international scholarship. Four leading Allie players

 

[ferrisb]

Perhaps you could knock out the highest and lowest one or two and average the rest (if you want to prevent outliers effecting the average)

Warning: nerd alert.

Outliers weren't much of a problem.

It's not like players had ratings of 5, 7, 865 and 2. Plus each player didn't have so many ratings that I could afford to lop some off.

Median would have been nice, but if a player missed out on say 4 top 40s, they got 4 x 50 values. And then it didn't matter if their other values were 1 or 63, players were too closely clumped by the values they missed out on, not they ones they actually got.

In the end, I think average worked fine.

Ps - there's a reason I called it 'Nerdy Stuff'

 

[btdg]

Here’s a fun stat: unless I’ve missed someone, we haven’t had a (non F/S) player taken past pick 30 in the draft or in the rookie draft reach 50 games for the club since the 2011 draft.

The closest current player is Tom Williamson on 17 games. The most games played by a player taken in that range of the draft in 2019 was 3 by Cameron Polson. I’d wager we don’t currently have a late draft pick or rookie pick who will get to 50 games on the list

In contrast, in the same time period Richmond had 7 players taken in that region of the draft reach 50 games. 14 players played in more than 7 matches this year, and 7 of those played in their premiership team.

Whatever we do with pick 9, our draft begins with our next pick. Quite simply, we won’t get out of the bottom half of the ladder unless we stop wasting list spots and frittering away draft assets

 

[Pafloyul]

So, who have we got? Oh...

 

[Stamos]

Here’s a fun stat: unless I’ve missed someone, we haven’t had a (non F/S) player taken past pick 30 in the draft or in the rookie draft reach 50 games for the club since the 2011 draft.

The closest current player is Tom Williamson on 17 games. The most games played by a player taken in that range of the draft in 2019 was 3 by Cameron Polson. I’d wager we don’t currently have a late draft pick or rookie pick who will get to 50 games on the list

In contrast, in the same time period Richmond had 7 players taken in that region of the draft reach 50 games. 14 players played in more than 7 matches this year, and 7 of those played in their premiership team.

Whatever we do with pick 9, our draft begins with our next pick. Quite simply, we won’t get out of the bottom half of the ladder unless we stop wasting list spots and frittering away draft assets

It’s a silly comparison which ignores the amount of high end talent that we’ve brought in since our rebuild began (11 first round players from the last 4 drafts).

How many first round picks have Richmond taken since SOS took over, and how good are they?

 

[Pafloyul]

Here’s a fun stat: unless I’ve missed someone, we haven’t had a (non F/S) player taken past pick 30 in the draft or in the rookie draft reach 50 games for the club since the 2011 draft.

The closest current player is Tom Williamson on 17 games. The most games played by a player taken in that range of the draft in 2019 was 3 by Cameron Polson. I’d wager we don’t currently have a late draft pick or rookie pick who will get to 50 games on the list

In contrast, in the same time period Richmond had 7 players taken in that region of the draft reach 50 games. 14 players played in more than 7 matches this year, and 7 of those played in their premiership team.

Whatever we do with pick 9, our draft begins with our next pick. Quite simply, we won’t get out of the bottom half of the ladder unless we stop wasting list spots and frittering away draft assets

We need to be a bit ambitious with later picks (and earlier ones, in a way) and draft players with some real AFL traits ('upside', if you like) rather than ostensibly dependable role playing types. It's arguably no coincidence as to why Tom Williamson is our best performed later selection.

 

[Blutopia]

Here’s a fun stat: unless I’ve missed someone, we haven’t had a (non F/S) player taken past pick 30 in the draft or in the rookie draft reach 50 games for the club since the 2011 draft.

The closest current player is Tom Williamson on 17 games. The most games played by a player taken in that range of the draft in 2019 was 3 by Cameron Polson. I’d wager we don’t currently have a late draft pick or rookie pick who will get to 50 games on the list

In contrast, in the same time period Richmond had 7 players taken in that region of the draft reach 50 games. 14 players played in more than 7 matches this year, and 7 of those played in their premiership team.

Whatever we do with pick 9, our draft begins with our next pick. Quite simply, we won’t get out of the bottom half of the ladder unless we stop wasting list spots and frittering away draft assets

Did you miss Gibbo? Played 21 of 22 this year and I think he is best 22 and looks to have improved week by week..

 

[Coona Blues]

Here’s a fun stat: unless I’ve missed someone, we haven’t had a (non F/S) player taken past pick 30 in the draft or in the rookie draft reach 50 games for the club since the 2011 draft.

The closest current player is Tom Williamson on 17 games. The most games played by a player taken in that range of the draft in 2019 was 3 by Cameron Polson. I’d wager we don’t currently have a late draft pick or rookie pick who will get to 50 games on the list......

...Whatever we do with pick 9, our draft begins with our next pick. Quite simply, we won’t get out of the bottom half of the ladder unless we stop wasting list spots and frittering away draft assets

Sensationalising much.

Casboult a rookie pick just outside your window.

Did you forget about Gibbons with 21 games last season? Williamson, Ben Silvagni and Gibbons with even luck will reach 50. We are about to attain a level only dreamed of this century, so outlandish statements can't be made. I have plenty of time for Cottrell and Owies, but opportunity may be limited. Goddard is great back up and a pillar in the twos as a rookie. Even Finbar O'Dwyer has copped so much disrespect on here after an injury marred preseason and having his first run at games with some continuity. He was a reach, but let's not disrespect yet. I had hopes for Polson, but his use has done more harm than good, with his ball handling being far from clean enough.

Do you not deem the acquisition of Newman for a late pick as noteworthy?

 

[btdg]

It’s a silly comparison which ignores the amount of high end talent that we’ve brought in since our rebuild began (11 first round players from the last 4 drafts).

How many first round picks have Richmond taken since SOS took over, and how good are they?

Richmond have brought in 5x first-round picks since 2015, including 4x dual premiership players and a BnF winner.

Which wasn't the point at all. We've absolutely butchered late picks and rookie picks for almost a decade. No matter how many high draft picks we get (and how many injured GWS draft picks we trade for) we won't have the depth to compete until we start using our whole list properly.

 

[Stamos]

Richmond have brought in 5x first-round picks since 2015, including 4x dual premiership players and a BnF winner.

Which wasn't the point at all. We've absolutely butchered late picks and rookie picks for almost a decade. No matter how many high draft picks we get (and how many injured GWS draft picks we trade for) we won't have the depth to compete until we start using our whole list properly.

What? They have not brought in a BnF winner, what rubbish. But then you omitted Gibbos games as well, facts aren’t really your strong suit.

And it is the point, if you bring in high numbers of top end talent, there are less available games for the later picks to play.

 

[btdg]

Sensationalising much.

Casboult a rookie pick just outside your window.

Did you forget about Gibbons with 21 games last season? Williamson, Ben Silvagni and Gibbons with even luck will reach 50. We are about to attain a level only dreamed of this century, so outlandish statements can't be made. I have plenty of time for Cottrell and Owies, but opportunity may be limited. Goddard is great back up and a pillar in the twos as a rookie. Even Finbar O'Dwyer has copped so much disrespect on here after an injury marred preseason and having his first run at games with some continuity. He was a reach, but let's not disrespect yet. I had hopes for Polson, but his use has done more harm than good, with his ball handling being far from clean enough.

Do you not deem the acquisition of Newman for a late pick as note noteworthy?

Gibbons was not taken in the later rounds of the draft, or in the rookie draft. He was a pre-season supplementary selection. If you want to count him then sure, he played this year (and Deluca also played 6 games which puts him ahead of every rookie and late pick we've taken in half a decade).

Williamson has played 2 mediocre games in two years, and his 2017 performances have been drastically over-rated by many. 12 touches a game playing off half-back isn't exactly stunning, particularly when the bloke can't get on the park.

Levi Casboult was a rookie pick in 2009. That's a decade ago... (although to save you the time - Ed Curnow was a more recent pick)

Nic Newman was a trade, and thus not relevant to a thread about our drafting and our appalling history of apparently not scrolling past page 1 of the AFL draft guide.

Please don't put your hopes in Cottrell, Owies, O'Dwyer, Ben Silvagni, etc. until they I dunno, actually set foot on an AFL field. Polson has not a single AFL attribute; not a knock on the bloke who seems like a nice, hard-working guy, but there's no reason for him to be on an AFL list. The same goes for most of our late picks, unfortunately.

None of which really changes the facts - it's 8 drafts since we used a pick past 27 or a rookie list pick on a player who reached 50 games for the club.

 

[btdg]

What? They have not brought in a BnF winner, what rubbish. But then you omitted Gibbos games as well, facts aren’t really your strong suit.

And it is the point, if you bring in high numbers of top end talent, there are less available games for the later picks to play.

They brought in Prestia by trade (pick 9 in the 2010 draft).

And again, Gibbons wasn't a national draft or rookie draft pick, so yeah, not included in my comment about our national and rookie draft picks in the 'draft' thread.

 

[Blutopia]

Richmond have brought in 5x first-round picks since 2015, including 4x dual premiership players and a BnF winner.

Which wasn't the point at all. We've absolutely butchered late picks and rookie picks for almost a decade. No matter how many high draft picks we get (and how many injured GWS draft picks we trade for) we won't have the depth to compete until we start using our whole list properly.

It’s always easier for late draft picks - who are more likely to be average players and not stars, to perform a role and get games when they are around stars of the game.

Have a look at the nucleus of Richmond’s success. Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt, Rance, Prestia, Lynch, Vlaustin - were all top 20 draft picks or close to it from memory. Once you look at that, then next 8 players or so will be 2nd rounders probably, I think even Daniel Rioli was another 1st rounder too. Once you have the solid 15 or so B+ to A+ core, you can then build around it with role players from later picks. It’s rare to pick up stars from 3rd round onwards.

SOS has built the core by trading and shuffling to get early picks to build the core and in time the later picks will start yielding better role players but from 2015 through to 2017 drafts he focused on mature discards from other clubs to take a bit of pressure off the kids and to stay 5% under the salary cap for a few years ready to load up from this year. Time will tell but I see blue skies ahead.

 

[btdg]

It’s always easier for late draft picks - who are more likely to be average players and not stars, to perform a role and get games when they are around stars of the game.

Have a look at the nucleus of Richmond’s success. Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt, Rance, Prestia, Lynch, Vlaustin - were all top 20 draft picks or close to it from memory. Once you look at that, then next 8 players or so will be 2nd rounders probably, I think even Daniel Rioli was another 1st rounder too. Once you have the solid 15 or so B+ to A+ core, you can then build around it with role players from later picks. It’s rare to pick up stars from 3rd round onwards.

SOS has built the core by trading and shuffling to get early picks to build the core and in time the later picks will start yielding better role players but from 2015 through to 2017 drafts he focused on mature discards from other clubs to take a bit of pressure off the kids and to stay 5% under the salary cap for a few years ready to load up from this year. Time will tell but I see blue skies ahead.

Maybe that's the case. If it's true, it should certainly start to show up for us soon.

As my original post said, our draft begins with our second pick, wherever that ends. My contention isn't really about out atrocious drafting history (that's past, and we can't change it). My contention is that until we start actually getting somewhere with late picks, we won't get off the bottom, because we'll always have a 'thin' core.

That's exactly what happened in our last rebuild. We built a really nice core of 10-15 guys from 2005-2008 by investing heavily in the draft. We had a reasonably track record with rookie/late picks from 2009-2011 too. But when our core started to peak, from 2011-2015, we missed terribly in those later rounds, which left us very low on depth. When we had bad injury luck in 2012 we fell away, missed the finals, panicked and sacked the coach. By 2015, after 4 years of poor drafting, we again had a bad run, fell all the way to last, sacked the coach and began rebuilding again.

So once again, it's not about the past. It's about the future. Hopefully, we won't have too many more top 10 picks (and consequently, we won't have many picks at all below 30 - probably 1 per year). If we want to round out this rebuild and actually get somewhere, either we start using list spots properly or we risk failing again.

 

[Arr0w]

Gibbons was not taken in the later rounds of the draft, or in the rookie draft. He was a pre-season supplementary selection. If you want to count him then sure, he played this year (and Deluca also played 6 games which puts him ahead of every rookie and late pick we've taken in half a decade).

Williamson has played 2 mediocre games in two years, and his 2017 performances have been drastically over-rated by many. 12 touches a game playing off half-back isn't exactly stunning, particularly when the bloke can't get on the park.

Levi Casboult was a rookie pick in 2009. That's a decade ago... (although to save you the time - Ed Curnow was a more recent pick)

Nic Newman was a trade, and thus not relevant to a thread about our drafting and our appalling history of apparently not scrolling past page 1 of the AFL draft guide.

Please don't put your hopes in Cottrell, Owies, O'Dwyer, Ben Silvagni, etc. until they I dunno, actually set foot on an AFL field. Polson has not a single AFL attribute; not a knock on the bloke who seems like a nice, hard-working guy, but there's no reason for him to be on an AFL list. The same goes for most of our late picks, unfortunately.

None of which really changes the facts - it's 8 drafts since we used a pick past 27 or a rookie list pick on a player who reached 50 games for the club.

Not that I disagree and i too have been somewhat critical of our picks after the first 2 rounds under SOS's tenure. But there are reasons and it is not uncommon with rebuilding sides

Let's take the Tigers, who I believe started their rebuild in 2007, although TheGun believes it was 2010

Anyway, since 2007 to 2012, Tigers only really struck gold once with draft picks after the first 2 rounds, Grimes.

That's 6 year for 1 decent player.

2013, Lloyd and Miles, serviceable

2014 onward is when they changed their approach, but that was after building a decent core

 

[Stamos]

They brought in Prestia by trade (pick 9 in the 2010 draft).

Exactly, 2010. So not only had our rebuild not begun, SOS was a full year away from his first draft at the Giants.

 

[btdg]

Not that I disagree and i too have been somewhat critical of our picks after the first 2 rounds under SOS's tenure. But there are reasons and it is not uncommon with rebuilding sides

Let's take the Tigers, who I believe started their rebuild in 2007, although TheGun believes it was 2010

Anyway, since 2007 to 2012, Tigers only really struck gold once with draft picks after the first 2 rounds, Grimes.

That's 6 year for 1 decent player.

2013, Lloyd and Miles, serviceable

2014 onward is when they changed their approach, but that was after building a decent core

Again, it seems to be the justification for our wasting those picks.

I'd argue Richmond showed glimpses in those years. Astbury was pick 35. Robin Nahas played 86 games. Jake Batchelor played 84 games. Looking over their picks, a bunch of them I remember being really good picks who didn't work out, and some look terrible in hindsight (maybe even Finbar bad). Is it a case of a) the good picks weren't in a good siutation to succeed, and b) the one's who did stick around (Nahas, Batchelor) aren't memorable as role players because the team sucked? Or did they get better after 2012?

How you interpret that matters imo. If you lean towards Richmond getting better at those picks, then their rise is actually tied to them improving late picks, NOT their use of early picks on stars. That's my contention.

Others here seem to think that we'll magically just somehow start finding good players with late picks. That worries me a lot, because if we're wrong and this rebuild fails...

 

[Arr0w]

Again, it seems to be the justification for our wasting those picks.

I'd argue Richmond showed glimpses in those years. Astbury was pick 35. Robin Nahas played 86 games. Jake Batchelor played 84 games. Looking over their picks, a bunch of them I remember being really good picks who didn't work out, and some look terrible in hindsight (maybe even Finbar bad). Is it a case of a) the good picks weren't in a good siutation to succeed, and b) the one's who did stick around (Nahas, Batchelor) aren't memorable as role players because the team sucked? Or did they get better after 2012?

How you interpret that matters imo. If you lean towards Richmond getting better at those picks, then their rise is actually tied to them improving late picks, NOT their use of early picks on stars. That's my contention.

Others here seem to think that we'll magically just somehow start finding good players with late picks. That worries me a lot, because if we're wrong and this rebuild fails...

I think there are many factors that intertwine. A change of strategy when the core is assembled, a greater narrower focus of the vision, taking greater risk/reward players, such as Short, Stack, Pickett types.

When we had better talent, some 15 -20 years ago, we also had a better hit rate with later picks.

Then you have a club like the Crows, strong 1st round picks, lower hit rate with mid round picks, then strong later/rookie picks

The best recruiters only have a 60% odd strike rate over a rolling 3 year period

 

[ferrisb]

Here’s a fun stat: we haven’t had a (non F/S) player taken past pick 30 in the draft or in the rookie draft reach 50 games for the club since the 2011 draft.

The closest current player is Tom Williamson on 17 games. The most games played by a player taken in that range of the draft in 2019 was 3 by Cameron Polson. I’d wager we don’t currently have a late draft pick or rookie pick who will get to 50 games on the list

In contrast, in the same time period Richmond had 7 players taken in that region of the draft reach 50 games. 14 players played in more than 7 matches this year, and 7 of those played in their premiership team.

Whatever we do with pick 9, our draft begins with our next pick. Quite simply, we won’t get out of the bottom half of the ladder unless we stop wasting list spots and frittering away draft assets

• 8% of people have an extra rib
• 96% of candles sold are purchased by women
• Niagara Falls could fill 4,000 bathtubs every second

Those are fun stats. Yours is not....

 

[windows1]

Apparently the Suns under the new concessions can prelist Budarick, Gore and Rosa as rookies only get Oea under an international scholarship. Four leading Allie players

They can have them. None can play.

 

[windows1]

Tom Green on the other hand....

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

• 8% of people have an extra rib
• 96% of candles sold are purchased by women
• Niagara Falls could fill 4,000 bathtubs every second

Those are fun stats. Yours is not....

At the time Elvis Presley died in 1977, he had 150 impersonators in the US. According to calculations in a US Sunday newspaper in 2005, there were 85,000. That meant that one in every 3,400 Americans at that time was an Elvis impersonator. If Elvis impersonators continued multiplying at the same rate, they would have accounted for a third of the world’s population by 2019.

So statistically, one in every three posters here is an Elvis impersonator....come on, confess up all you Elvis's!!!


....this place is in bad need of a good rumour

 

[Blutopia]

At the time Elvis Presley died in 1977, he had 150 impersonators in the US. According to calculations in a US Sunday newspaper in 2005, there were 85,000. That meant that one in every 3,400 Americans at that time was an Elvis impersonator. If Elvis impersonators continued multiplying at the same rate, they would have accounted for a third of the world’s population by 2019.

So statistically, one in every three posters here is an Elvis impersonator....come on, confess up all you Elvis's!!!


....this place is in bad need of a good rumour

Ah huh. That stats got me all shook up....

 

[ParapMarkets]

Again, it seems to be the justification for our wasting those picks.

I'd argue Richmond showed glimpses in those years. Astbury was pick 35. Robin Nahas played 86 games. Jake Batchelor played 84 games. Looking over their picks, a bunch of them I remember being really good picks who didn't work out, and some look terrible in hindsight (maybe even Finbar bad). Is it a case of a) the good picks weren't in a good siutation to succeed, and b) the one's who did stick around (Nahas, Batchelor) aren't memorable as role players because the team sucked? Or did they get better after 2012?

How you interpret that matters imo. If you lean towards Richmond getting better at those picks, then their rise is actually tied to them improving late picks, NOT their use of early picks on stars. That's my contention.

Others here seem to think that we'll magically just somehow start finding good players with late picks. That worries me a lot, because if we're wrong and this rebuild fails...

There’s no doubt we need to get better at our late/rookie drafting, but it really doesn’t take much thought to understand why we might have a discrepancy compared to an established team who are filling in the gaps. Our draft hand has had a good presence in the early part of the draft (e.g. 2015 no pick after 23 - when not including the ineligible father son as per your criteria).

Your arguments are also erratic, on the one hand you don’t want to include traded players, but on the other hand when it suits your argument you include Prestia. Who cares if we traded Newman for a token pick or picked him up in the draft? It’s the same net result. Docherty for pick 33 was also particularly pleasing, Jones for pick 46.

We do need to get better at finding gems later on though, no doubt about it. One thing I think about is whether we are trying for too much top line talent, not enough team oriented role players that premiership teams seem to have in abundance.

 

[TheGeneralmeg]

They can have them. None can play.

Bit harsh . One was all Australian and another basically along with Tom Green beat Vic Metro by himself.