Autopsy Cats lose to Port by 6 points after being down by 10 goals

[Wish Wellingtons]

Since we're back on the discussion of disposal numbers (really not sure why), I decided to check out how we fared in that regard back in 2022 & this "magical" figure of 30 disposals in a match

Out of our 25 matches in 2022, in only 10 of those matches did we have a player or players finish with 30 or more disposals:

Round 1 vs Essendon (MCG): Parfitt - 32, Dangerfield - 31. W
Round 6 vs North (Blundstone: Tuohy - 32. W
Round 7 vs Fremantle (KP): Stewart - 40, C. Guthrie 35. L
Round 8 vs GWS (Manuka): Duncan - 33. W
Round 10 vs Port (KP): Guthrie - 38. W
Round 11 vs Adelaide (KP): Stewart - 40, C. Guthrie 35, Parfitt - 35. W,
Round 16 vs North (KP): Duncan - 30, Cameron - 30. W
Round 17 vs Melbourne (KP): Duncan - 32, Dangerfield - 31. W
Round 22 vs Gold Coast (GC): C. Guthrie - 30. W
Grand Final vs Swans (MCG): Smith - 32. W


And the number of matches in which our opponents had at least 1 player reach 30+ disposals during 2022 - that was 14

The number of those 14 matches we lost - 1, versus St Kilda in round 9. And just for fun, 9 of 14 matches were from round 10 onwards when we went on our 16 game game winning streak


Maybe a player or players reaching 30 disposals in a game, really isn't that magical or the secret to winning...

So by this logic, in our premiership year we had 6x 30 possession games by round 8 and this year we have had one. That means we need a 600% improvement from our midfield to win the flag.

The stats are in gents.

 

[CHAWKTS]

Since we're back on the discussion of disposal numbers (really not sure why), I decided to check out how we fared in that regard back in 2022 & this "magical" figure of 30 disposals in a match

Out of our 25 matches in 2022, in only 10 of those matches did we have a player or players finish with 30 or more disposals:

Round 1 vs Essendon (MCG): Parfitt - 32, Dangerfield - 31. W
Round 6 vs North (Blundstone: Tuohy - 32. W
Round 7 vs Fremantle (KP): Stewart - 40, C. Guthrie 35. L
Round 8 vs GWS (Manuka): Duncan - 33. W
Round 10 vs Port (KP): Guthrie - 38. W
Round 11 vs Adelaide (KP): Stewart - 40, C. Guthrie 35, Parfitt - 35. W,
Round 16 vs North (KP): Duncan - 30, Cameron - 30. W
Round 17 vs Melbourne (KP): Duncan - 32, Dangerfield - 31. W
Round 22 vs Gold Coast (GC): C. Guthrie - 30. W
Grand Final vs Swans (MCG): Smith - 32. W


And the number of matches in which our opponents had at least 1 player reach 30+ disposals during 2022 - that was 14

The number of those 14 matches we lost - 1, versus St Kilda in round 9. And just for fun, 9 of 14 matches were from round 10 onwards when we went on our 16 game game winning streak


Maybe a player or players reaching 30 disposals in a game, really isn't that magical or the secret to winning...

Good analysis

Supports my anger toward Max for getting 31 possessions last week. As soon as he did it I knew we couldn’t win. That alongside the fact that we did too well in clearances. Never gave ourselves a chance!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If Conway doesn't get up for Thursday, I think O'Sullivan will be in serious consideration - omit Stanley, play Blicavs as the #1 ruck and then use a combination of Neale, SDK & J. Henry to assist, with O'Sullivan helping down back

Slippery Darwin conditions. No extra talls please.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If Conway doesn't get up for Thursday, I think O'Sullivan will be in serious consideration - omit Stanley, play Blicavs as the #1 ruck and then use a combination of Neale, SDK & J. Henry to assist, with O'Sullivan helping down back

I think hawkins cameron duncan and stanley will all be out of the 23 this week
Logically their spots should go to conway neale bowes and mannagh.

Clark and dempsey would both be chances to be managed (although we may not rest dempsey given no hawk and jez). Id drop parf but its unlikely.
The next 3 options you would think are osullivan (if conways unfit and we want a tall) hardie and possibly tuohy (much as i dont like it).

Those guys are probably the travelling squad of 26 then call the last couple of spots depending on weather
At least anyone that doesnt play can still fly back to play vfl on the sat.

 

[cats_09]

Slippery Darwin conditions. No extra talls please.

O'Sullivan looked ok against North and seemed very agile for a player of his height - could be good to see him up in Darwin

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Slippery Darwin conditions. No extra talls please.

I wouldnt go too tall thats why id go neale for hawk and mannagh for jez.
But gc still have king walter luko and witts (plus andrew) so we have a minimum no of talls needed

 

[CatToTheFuture]

O'Sullivan looked ok against North and seemed very agile for a player of his height - could be good to see him up in Darwin

Yeah, but again it's a "for his height" qualifier. Does that make him as damaging at ground level as Humphries? I think ground level is where the action will be

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I wouldnt go too tall thats why id go neale for hawk and mannagh for jez.
But gc still have king walter luko and witts (plus andrew) so we have a minimum no of talls needed

That sounds like a them problem

 

[cats_09]

So by this logic, in our premiership year we had 6x 30 possession games by round 8 and this year we have had one. That means we need a 600% improvement from our midfield to win the flag.

The stats are in gents.

I'm glad that's what you took out of it

The reality is that in 2022 we won the vast majority of our matches with an even spread of contributions across the ground - we weren't reliant on just one or two players to do the heavy lifting

Even looking at data from recent seasons - having a player average 30+ disposals across the season doesn't necessarily equate to team wins or even playing finals

 

[cats_09]

Yeah, but again it's a "for his height" qualifier. Does that make him as damaging at ground level as Humphries? I think ground level is where the action will be

I was thinking it would more so only be if Conway doesn't get up

While we're all hopefully of Neale playing, I'm not sure we'll necessarily see him playing the traditional #2 ruck role in the absence of both Hawkins & Cameron. Even with both Henry & Rohan in the side, I think we'd still see some value in playing a true tall forward, even if it's deep and for him to create contests that the smalls can hopefully crumb goals from

That's why I was thinking we might see someone like O'Sullivan in case we need to free up Jack or SDK to play second ruck when Blicavs needs a rest

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I was thinking it would more so only be if Conway doesn't get up

While we're all hopefully of Neale playing, I'm not sure we'll necessarily see him playing the traditional #2 ruck role in the absence of both Hawkins & Cameron. Even with both Henry & Rohan in the side, I think we'd still see some value in playing a true tall forward, even if it's deep and for him to create contests that the smalls can hopefully crumb goals from

That's why I was thinking we might see someone like O'Sullivan in case we need to free up Jack or SDK to play second ruck when Blicavs needs a rest

If you just want it brought to ground then I think Henry and Rohan could do that for the 20% neale isnt there. I guess it depends how much risk you'd want to take on rucking blitz longer minutes in game. I'd be lying if I said it didn't concern me, but we need a win

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Omit - no

Manage - yes

Why do no people these days take the effort to read the whole conversation for context?

Firstly it was suggested Duncan must be left out Thursday not because he is old and needs a rest but because of slippery conditions. Then Pure inferred that prepping for finals that Duncan is someone we cannot carry.

So this was never about "manage". It was precisely about "omit" and why I am defending Mitch Duncan strongly.

 

[Hello Kitty]

Cripps
Walsh
Butters
Wines
Serong
Amon
Newcombe
Bonner
Steele
T. Green
Martin
Davis-Uniake
Fisher
Treloar
Richards
McKercher
Bontempelli
Dale

All these players got 30+ this round. The round isn't over yet. You are clueless.

How dare you speak to Sam like that!
How dare you!
Sam is very AFL knowledgeable + a most respected + adored poster!
Sam is also a very dear friend!

 

[Play it Sam]

Since we're back on the discussion of disposal numbers (really not sure why), I decided to check out how we fared in that regard back in 2022 & this "magical" figure of 30 disposals in a match

Out of our 25 matches in 2022, in only 10 of those matches did we have a player or players finish with 30 or more disposals:

Round 1 vs Essendon (MCG): Parfitt - 32, Dangerfield - 31. W
Round 6 vs North (Blundstone: Tuohy - 32. W
Round 7 vs Fremantle (KP): Stewart - 40, C. Guthrie 35. L
Round 8 vs GWS (Manuka): Duncan - 33. W
Round 10 vs Port (KP): Guthrie - 38. W
Round 11 vs Adelaide (KP): Stewart - 40, C. Guthrie 35, Parfitt - 35. W,
Round 16 vs North (KP): Duncan - 30, Cameron - 30. W
Round 17 vs Melbourne (KP): Duncan - 32, Dangerfield - 31. W
Round 22 vs Gold Coast (GC): C. Guthrie - 30. W
Grand Final vs Swans (MCG): Smith - 32. W


And the number of matches in which our opponents had at least 1 player reach 30+ disposals during 2022 - that was 14

The number of those 14 matches we lost - 1, versus St Kilda in round 9. And just for fun, 9 of 14 matches were from round 10 onwards when we went on our 16 game game winning streak


Maybe a player or players reaching 30 disposals in a game, really isn't that magical or the secret to winning...



Edit - here's the list of teams & players to have 30+ disposals on us in 2022:
Round 1 vs Essendon (MCG): Merrett - 39, Parish - 34
Round 3 vs Collingwood (MCG): Adams - 30
Round 4 vs Brisbane (KP): Neale - 30
Round 5 vs Hawthorn (MCG): Mitchell - 33, Newcombe - 31
Round 9 vs St Kilda (Marvel): Crouch - 36, Sinclair - 31, Gresham - 30
Round 10 vs Port (KP): Houston - 30
Round 11 vs Adelaide (KP): Laird - 38
Round 12 vs Bulldogs (Marvel): Macrae - 31, Dale - 31, Liberatore - 30, Daniel - 30
Round 16 vs North (KP): LDU - 35
Round 17 vs Melbourne (KP): Viney - 35, Oliver - 34
Round 18 vs Carlton (MCG): Walsh - 33
Round 22 vs Gold Coast (GC): Miller - 36, Ellis - 32
Round 23 vs WCE (KP): Hurn - 32
QF vs Collingwood (MCG): Pendlebury - 34

Thank you for doing those tables, it takes a bit of work. People can read into it what they will, being you've shown it to be arbitrary, due to so many factors- but it sure beats people stabbing away at each other in disagreement.
Of course we'd love some 30 plus games, but at the moment I'd settle for mid twenties - as the midfield stood on Saturday.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Cripps
Walsh
Butters
Wines
Serong
Amon
Newcombe
Bonner
Steele
T. Green
Martin
Davis-Uniake
Fisher
Treloar
Richards
McKercher
Bontempelli
Dale

All these players got 30+ this round. The round isn't over yet. You are clueless.

3 more from Pies v Eagles. Not looking likely in the other game.
So that's 21 this round.

Fun Fact: Pies v Eagles had 6 with 27 or more disposals.
Our games with cats reaching 27 is less than that for the season.

0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0

Those players are Stewart, Bruhn, Cameron, Guthrie and Holmes.
Our opponents have a combined 19 times.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

So by this logic, in our premiership year we had 6x 30 possession games by round 8 and this year we have had one. That means we need a 600% improvement from our midfield to win the flag.

The stats are in gents.

It's not apples for apples.
Our midfield 2022 is not the same as 2024. ToG are down even further, as is output. As it the ability to win key midfield metrics of CP, Clearances.

 

[BORIS332]

Witts is an absolutely elite tap ruckman. He could do some serious damage this week.

 

[Jumping Jack]

Witts is an absolutely elite tap ruckman. He could do some serious damage this week.

100% - Witts is very good and he’s caused us problems in the past.

We’ll get similar conditions to what they had last night in Darwin - and Witts was ranked in the top few players on the ground. Touk Miller was #1 and looked a level above with his ball handling.

Conway did well in Brisbane in the wet - albeit dopey Oscar was subbed out.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Heckler]

I'm just saying I think there has to be some evolution in the way the game is umpired around tackling and it should reward an intent for the ball and open play rather than stoppages.

Discourage the player holding onto the ball after being tackled.
Must get the ball out, even if it is dropped... or a free kick is awarded for tackle.
Specifically for those players grabbing the ball and inviting a tackle with no effort to dispose.
Inviting a tackle, should be treated same as dragging the ball in when on the ground.
No Prior Opportunity given only for players trying to break away.

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

Hawk shouldn't play again unless Neale is injured. Why let him break selwoods record? I'd rather they were joint holders.

What?

 

[And_ROOS]

Holmes - 31 touches versus Melbourne

Easiest way to check is to look at the games list on Footywire - it shows the disposal & goal leaders without having to check individual games

And before that Bruhn had 27 against the Hawks, he would have had 35+ but we benched certain players for significant minutes because we had a short break before the next match. He had 67% time on ground but he was racking them up early in the match.

We had a few games where guys would have over 30 touches but heavy rotations prevent it.
CGuthrie had 27 disposals from 79% game time against the Blues, Danger had 25 disposals from 75% game time when a lot was going through him.
I have cooled on the need for a midfield accumulator, but we still lack someone with pace in the middle. Danger, Bruhn and Bowes are quick and sadly none of them played against Port and our midfield looked like it was running in sand.

That said, Port have the best young midfield in the comp and should they sort their forward line out they have the talent to win a flag. But we have seen where the glaring hole in midfield is, and that was hurt by the fact we had a completely insipid ruck.

As for Stanley, dude has no in between. He either has his purple patch where he has 3-6 marks, 15 disposals and 25+ hit outs and also negates clear hit outs from the opposition (2022 did this against really good teams, so far this year only done it to Bulldogs and Kangas) or its the bad Stanley where he jumps too early, loses the hit outs, gets under 10 possessions, takes 1 or 2 marks for the game and is completely invisible.
Getting to the point where we might have to back Conway in because Pittonet absolutely dominated him and was one of Carltons best, Gawn was incredibly influential in the Demons win, and a 21 year old Visentini got him dragged.

Honestly this weekend if fit we should take Conway to ruck, Blicavs to chip in and bring in Neale for Cameron and have him ruck as well as play forward. We are lucky that we have guys like Blicavs and Neale who can part time ruck while also being effective in other positions and Stanley simply can't be relied upon.

 

[Play it Sam]

After round 1 we’ve made 27 changes at selection at an average of 3.37 changes per game. 32 players have already tasted action this year.

I appreciate it takes a squad to be successful across the season but you also need to be predictable to each other.

The counter argument is that Scott is betting on players knowing the system and that building depth is a strength. Probably a little early to tell and hard to be critical of when we’ve lost two games by a kick or so.

Interestingly Sydney have played just 26 players this season.

For people looking for trends, Geelong played 35 players across the entire season in ‘22 (Sydney 36) and Collingwood played 37 last year (though 6 only played the 1 game) (Brisbane 35).

I suspect the key is to bat deep enough (and mange rest and exposure to games) without having to bat too deep and becoming unpredictable to each other. It’s a fine line.

Congrats on your sensible post - considering the hellhole '23 we had with injuries, and the two vital cogs missing from our midfield last week, I don't mind a bit of depth. Continuity and familiarity is important but so is flexibility when the dice rolls against you, and we are lucky there are a few likely types in the VFL.
Not 30 possessions each though, considering we are rolling them through, but patience is a virtue.

 

[Heckler]

The other thing that needs a look is the Port checking of Stewart off the ball. 4 umpires and not one willing to pull it up? In the old days ..someone would end up with broken nose doing that. If the AFL do want the players to deal out their own level of justice then they need to pay attention. Checking when more than 5 metres from the ball is a free kick.

Unsportsmanlike conduct should be penalised.
Automatic free kick by umpire if seen
Video Review every game for behind play incidents.
Also remonstrating umpires call, diving etc.
Fines and 20 demerit points per incident
Build to 1 game Suspension if reach 100 points.
Aim is stop inciting actions and serial pests.

 

[catswhiskers]

3 more from Pies v Eagles. Not looking likely in the other game.
So that's 21 this round.

Fun Fact: Pies v Eagles had 6 with 27 or more disposals.
Our games with cats reaching 27 is less than that for the season.

0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0

Those players are Stewart, Bruhn, Cameron, Guthrie and Holmes.
Our opponents have a combined 19 times.

And we are 7-2.

We have 28/29 players up to standard we just have to figure out best mix.

I lean towards pushing thru youth rather than too much reliance on champs.

Easy to say hard for a club to do.

Our Club has a much better handle on this than I have . So I will watch n see.

 

[standupand]

And before that Bruhn had 27 against the Hawks, he would have had 35+ but we benched certain players for significant minutes because we had a short break before the next match. He had 67% time on ground but he was racking them up early in the match.

We had a few games where guys would have over 30 touches but heavy rotations prevent it.
CGuthrie had 27 disposals from 79% game time against the Blues, Danger had 25 disposals from 75% game time when a lot was going through him.
I have cooled on the need for a midfield accumulator, but we still lack someone with pace in the middle. Danger, Bruhn and Bowes are quick and sadly none of them played against Port and our midfield looked like it was running in sand.

That said, Port have the best young midfield in the comp and should they sort their forward line out they have the talent to win a flag. But we have seen where the glaring hole in midfield is, and that was hurt by the fact we had a completely insipid ruck.

As for Stanley, dude has no in between. He either has his purple patch where he has 3-6 marks, 15 disposals and 25+ hit outs and also negates clear hit outs from the opposition (2022 did this against really good teams, so far this year only done it to Bulldogs and Kangas) or its the bad Stanley where he jumps too early, loses the hit outs, gets under 10 possessions, takes 1 or 2 marks for the game and is completely invisible.
Getting to the point where we might have to back Conway in because Pittonet absolutely dominated him and was one of Carltons best, Gawn was incredibly influential in the Demons win, and a 21 year old Visentini got him dragged.

Honestly this weekend if fit we should take Conway to ruck, Blicavs to chip in and bring in Neale for Cameron and have him ruck as well as play forward. We are lucky that we have guys like Blicavs and Neale who can part time ruck while also being effective in other positions and Stanley simply can't be relied upon.

Just on Stanley, it sounded from CS pre-game that he wasn't expecting to play this game but then Conway picked up an injury so he was required.

The plan this year seems to have been for Rhys to play max 2 game in a row.

With that in mind, subbing him out of the Port game may have always been on the agenda, but they went early with the call given how bad it looked like he was travelling out there from early on.

I think he'll still contribute in a meaningful way to the remaining games. There's a long way to go. If we're good enough to get deep in finals this year, I can see a situation where we see Stanley play 2 and Conway brought in for the third.