Prediction Changes for Essendon (OP updated with player availability)

[MagpieBat]

I'd except that reasoning if it wasn't pies vs bombers 2 of the most well supported teams in Australia.

Sunday time slot is a cesspool slot.

Mate, it's not out of the ordinary. A couple of times in the last few years, Collingwood vs Essendon has been Fox exclusive, Saturday afternoon or Sunday twilight. Indeed, having two well-supported teams in this invented timeslot is probably the exact reason why this game is fixtured so. Lots and lots of eyeballs to drag into the 6pm news.

Hell, the Collingwood vs Richmond re-match in a few weeks, the match which on current standings is 1st vs 2nd and has just the barest chance of being a September preview, is a 1:45pm Saturday afternoon Foxtel exclusive. Surely the two biggest clubs would be on FTA? Nope!

What the fans want is really immaterial in this whole discussion. Hail Caesar! And give him your money...

 

[DeZi]

How much do we need to win by and Richmond lose by for us to be first?

LoL

 

[Somebody]

I'd be inclined to leave Mihocek forward. It's working well. We need to expose McLarty to senior footy at some point. Reid would be my choice though if possible. Has Reid had a set back in his recovery? I thought he was due for a return.

OTOH a couple of games as a forward are excellent prep for going into defense, because you have a better understanding of what it's like for the forward you are trying to stop and how to stop them.

 

[Somebody]

As was with Anzac day this game is another genuine 50/50. We got the better of them last time and they have gathered a bit more form since. My confidence is a little more than last time as I now know what we will likely deliver.

Would be great to nab the points. I hate that saying you gotta lose a game eventually but if there was a game it would be this one. But you know what? **** that. We are capable of winning every game. We were right in it with the Tigers several weeks back. Our worst game was geelong. So no **** that saying. If we stick to our plans we win. Our midfield dominating is what will drive it.

we have sydney and richmond after this, not to mention weagles, Power and North, so def important to win this one to try to avoid getting kicked out of top 4.

 

[10571z]

We seen Scharenberg get Destroyes by KPF and he not Big/Tall enough

Between Howe, Sharenberg, Langdon we can handle Essendons talls.

I don’t think you’ll see another 1st gamer this week. Would love a Varcoe to come back

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

I'm ok with Mihocek going back and Reid going forward if Reid can come in. I'd love to blood McLarty but I'm not sure how much more inexperience we can bring in before we give out.

 

[Quicky]

OTOH a couple of games as a forward are excellent prep for going into defense, because you have a better understanding of what it's like for the forward you are trying to stop and how to stop them.

I'd be comfortable throwing Mihocek back. I just think we should keep that forward group together as it is working so well.

 

[Chrispiesssss]

If we do lose Dunn for a week, this is probably the week that we could cover it.

Schaz on Mckernan is almost the perfect matchup. Mckernan is not too tall, and not the quickest player. Mckernan probably had his best week of AFL football, and tends to be inconsistent.

Howe on Stringer. Langdon on M.Brown.
Appleby on Fantasia. Maynard on Tippa.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Hooker plays forward, but we can always send Mihocek to play in the backline.

As previously mentioned by the Essendon poster, if you beat Essendon on the spread, you’ll win. Essendon are a very good team at running forward from stoppages. If we limit easy clearances, we are in with a very good chance.

What I think is going to work in our favour is our agile medium-sized forward line.
If Stephenson/WHE plays deep on :
Hurley, Goddard, Hooker, they’re quicker than all of them.
Saad can be poor defensively.

I think WHE will have a big game.

Only change I would make for Dunn is one of two options :
Varcoe - play him in the forward line and get him to run off Hurley.

Greenwood - get him to tag Heppell/ Merret.

I also would drop Daicos for Brown. We need that toughness through the middle. Daicos floats in & out of the game too much.

We obviously need Langdon & Appleby to improve.

Quick summary:
Win the game through the middle, and we win. If we let Essendon control the Center part of the ground, their defenders will kill us with speed.

It’s weird, our forward line is full of speed, and Essendons defence is full of speed. That does help us, as we could curb their runs through the middle, and we can also expose them if they’re poor defensively.

3 stats to look out for : Contested Possessions, Clerances and Tackles Inside 50.

This is a massive danger game. If we lose this, the wheels could fall off. I’m very very nervous. However, I think we have so much room to improve. We have so many players who’ve come back from the BYE in below-par form. I hope this is the week it clicks.

Pies by 11 points in an absolute nail-bitter!!

 

[Unknown Identity]

OUT: Appleby - Dunn
IN: Murray - McLarty

We need a Mihocek or McLarty forward to compete aerially with the other playing down back.

If we don't bring in another tall i can already see how this plays out, shallow entries that are picked off by Hooker time and time again, and on top of this they have the option to switch him forward and really stretch our defence.

Need some line breaking pace off half back, instruct Murray to either switch to an open man or kick long to a 50/50 instead of short to a 50/50.
Appleby has been making some pretty ordinary errors with not alot of upside, Murray has the upside with his speed and is pretty handy one on one too..

Varcoe also in the mix no doubt.

 

[Chrispiesssss]

OUT: Appleby - Dunn
IN: Murray - McLarty

We need a Mihocek or McLarty forward to compete aerially with the other playing down back.

If we don't bring in another tall i can already see how this plays out, shallow entries that are picked off by Hooker time and time again, and on top of this they have the option to switch him forward and really stretch our defence.

Need some line breaking pace off half back, instruct Murray to either switch to an open man or kick long to a 50/50 instead of short to a 50/50.
Appleby has been making some pretty ordinary errors with not alot of upside, Murray has the upside with his speed and is pretty handy one on one too..

Varcoe also in the mix no doubt.

If you look at the team Essendon put out this week, they DIDNT play have any giants in the forward line. If they do swap Hooker into the forward line, we get Mihocek to follow him there. I don’t think we need a tall player to replace Dunn, rather a player with pace.

I wouldn’t be opposed to Varcoe playing in the forward line or Murray in the backline.

But I don’t think we should blood McLarty this week.

 

[Unknown Identity]

If we do lose Dunn for a week, this is probably the week that we could cover it.

Schaz on Mckernan is almost the perfect matchup. Mckernan is not too tall, and not the quickest player. Mckernan probably had his best week of AFL football, and tends to be inconsistent.

Howe on Stringer. Langdon on M.Brown.
Appleby on Fantasia. Maynard on Tippa.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Hooker plays forward, but we can always send Mihocek to play in the backline.

As previously mentioned by the Essendon poster, if you beat Essendon on the spread, you’ll win. Essendon are a very good team at running forward from stoppages. If we limit easy clearances, we are in with a very good chance.

What I think is going to work in our favour is our agile medium-sized forward line.
If Stephenson/WHE plays deep on :
Hurley, Goddard, Hooker, they’re quicker than all of them.
Saad can be poor defensively.

I think WHE will have a big game.

Only change I would make for Dunn is one of two options :
Varcoe - play him in the forward line and get him to run off Hurley.

Greenwood - get him to tag Heppell/ Merret.

I also would drop Daicos for Brown. We need that toughness through the middle. Daicos floats in & out of the game too much.

We obviously need Langdon & Appleby to improve.

Quick summary:
Win the game through the middle, and we win. If we let Essendon control the Center part of the ground, their defenders will kill us with speed.

It’s weird, our forward line is full of speed, and Essendons defence is full of speed. That does help us, as we could curb their runs through the middle, and we can also expose them if they’re poor defensively.

3 stats to look out for : Contested Possessions, Clerances and Tackles Inside 50.

This is a massive danger game. If we lose this, the wheels could fall off. I’m very very nervous. However, I think we have so much room to improve. We have so many players who’ve come back from the BYE in below-par form. I hope this is the week it clicks.

Pies by 11 points in an absolute nail-bitter!!

McKernan is 198cm, he has 7cm on Shaz.
I don't mind the idea of McLarty cutting his teeth on a player like McKernan because he is inconsistent, has the weight and the height to match him.

I would send Scharenberg to Mitch Brown.

 

[Chrispiesssss]

McKernan is 198cm, he has 7cm on Shaz.
I don't mind the idea of McLarty cutting his teeth on a player like McKernan because he is inconsistent, has the weight and the height to match him.

I would send Scharenberg to Mitch Brown.

He’s 196 cms on the AFL page. I watched the game yesterday, and he didn’t kick a goal (maybe 1) from a mark. It was predominantly snaps over his body.
I don’t think he will be taking any crazy contested marks. I just don’t think we NEED to play McLarty this week. If Daniher was playing, I would completely agree.

 

[Kirby]

How'd McLarty look, Kirb?

He was pretty quiet. Took a couple of marks but really didn't have an influence. He was changing with Lynch in the ruck.

 

[ThexderX]

Richmond and Carlton proved if you play tight and aggressive on Essington, they just go to water.

They are a bunch of soft downhill skiiers, but if we let them play their footy, we risk losing this.

This is where the coaches earn their keep - we must drum into our players to not get sucked into a shoot out.

 

[Somebody]

another possibility in trying to compensate for AT loss, is to start to trial Stephenson in the midfield at least for short spells. of course that will work better if we get Elliot back, but until then could swing H-E to FF for those spells.

 

[Brad Goodman]

Interesting to note than Essendon are 2-5 with Daniher and 5-2 without. That said I feel that if Dunn is out we can use Mihocek and Scharenberg on McKernan and the other Mitch Brown without having to bring in a direct replacement.

 

[jakson68]

How much do we need to win by and Richmond lose by for us to be first?

Best we worry about getting the four points and not get ahead of ourselves.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Interesting to note than Essendon are 2-5 with Daniher and 5-2 without. That said I feel that if Dunn is out we can use Mihocek and Scharenberg on McKernan and the other Mitch Brown without having to bring in a direct replacement.

That doesnt really mean anything except that Essendon were playing Daniher when he wasnt fit. Hes a reigning AA.

McKernan and Brown shouldnt concern us too much, McKernan is an ok player but had his career best game last week and I doubt hes capable or repeating it.

 

[DaVe86]

I think if McLarty had form then he'd be a must. But going off VFL reports, it doesn't sound like he has any form to justify selection.

Therefore, I think we'll move Mihocek back and play small forward. Mihocek has been ok, but hasn't dominated as a key forward. He has offered a lot from a competitive point of view, but I think we get the same sort of output from De Goey playing as a 2nd tall. I think that's how we will structure, which is a slight concern because I believe De Goey is more needed in the midfield. Not sure where Greenwood is at, but wouldn't be surprised to see him return and play as a defensive forward as well.

I'm worried about Essendon's talls because they have been good. With our small forward line, I wouldn't be shocked to see Hooker play forward as well to really stretch us. But I think their forward line is more manageable than if there was Danniher and Stewart who would be bigger aeriel threats. The bigger danger is the likes of Stringer and Fantasia.

 

[domin8tors]

Dunn going in for scans on his knee, concern for his ACL>

 

[loki04]

Mate, it's not out of the ordinary. A couple of times in the last few years, Collingwood vs Essendon has been Fox exclusive, Saturday afternoon or Sunday twilight. Indeed, having two well-supported teams in this invented timeslot is probably the exact reason why this game is fixtured so. Lots and lots of eyeballs to drag into the 6pm news.

Hell, the Collingwood vs Richmond re-match in a few weeks, the match which on current standings is 1st vs 2nd and has just the barest chance of being a September preview, is a 1:45pm Saturday afternoon Foxtel exclusive. Surely the two biggest clubs would be on FTA? Nope!

What the fans want is really immaterial in this whole discussion. Hail Caesar! And give him your money...

Yeah I know but it's shit soo...ima have a cry.

 

[30yearpie]

Dunn is out Miocheck just goes down back like he did tonight

OUT Dunn
IN Varcoe

We do have an all Australian tall defender to come back in the next week or two. I am unconcerned about Dunn. IMO he has been a liability for us on many occasions this year and was due to be dropped when Moore, or Reid were fit

 

[TW Sherrin]

We do have an all Australian tall defender to come back in the next week or two. I am unconcerned about Dunn. IMO he has been a liability for us on many occasions this year and was due to be dropped when Moore, or Reid were fit

lol

 

[Old Stuckup]

Noticed a lot of posts about Hooker playing forward. Highly doubt we see that happen as he hasn’t been up there since about Round 4 and the backline has been functioning very well with the exception of yesterday.

 

[caloschwaby]

AFL Injury List has Elliot as "Test".
How far away does that really mean?