Preview Changes v Richmond

[Del165892]

I think naughton should play back Mutt. Particularly in the post-Wood era. Cordy moves into that role and naughton at CHB.

I think its a ridiculous assumption that the “play Naughton back” brigade envisage a Bruce, Wallis, Porter, Lachie young, gowers forward line......I commented before the game what a mess that line up looked.

Naugton is an A grade talent and a B- forward IMO.

Clearly he’s going to play there tho, so I hope he improves (a lot).

I doubt he'll improve much Fronk. He's already 20-years-old and he's had a full season of playing as a forward. I reckon he has peaked as a forward and we should send him to defence and let Schache, who is a contested marking beast, own the forward line.

 

[Lex22]

We need to dismiss this notion that resting a whole lot of players at once is a realistic option.

Bevo is not going to leave all of Bont, Macrae, Libba and 4-5 other regulars out of any one game. Not even under the pretext that 2-3 of them are "sore" or suffering "tightness".

First reason is that the AFL will send a stern "please explain" and possibly issue sanctions. Perhaps not for tanking (although that could be argued) but for the bad look it gives the game. All clubs are on board to try to make this f**ed-up season work the best it can. Effectively throwing a game in order to give players a rest is not in keeping with that.

Second reason is that's not the way Bevo operates. He might adopt a risky approach at times (such as having Gowers plus 3 sub-10 gamers play against the Suns) but he is still angling to win those games and in fact pulled it off against GC. I doubt he'd ever deliberately approach a H&A game and say "I think we'll sacrifice this one".

Possibly a third reason might have something to do with sports betting. It should never come into it, but the AFL has sold its soul to the devil on that one so it's always going to be a background consideration.

We have a relatively young list (very few over 30), playing shortened games with extended breaks after goals and we are getting 5-6 day breaks, so it's not all that bad. Player recovery rates will be carefully monitored. I imagine midweek training is less intense than during a normal season.

No doubt there will be some players rested at some stage (eg Libba) but I'd be surprised if it was more than 2 at any one time.

We’ve done it before and there’s examples of other teams doing it too.

I agree it’s probably unlikely but it shouldn’t be completely dismissed.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

I would like more marking power from our KPDs. Currently Keath and Cordy average less marks than any other KPD duo in the league. However I don't think it's the most important thing, as long as they can stop the KPFs marking it and do their bit to cover the space to stop the smalls having room it'll work. Though I'd probably prefer Le Young over Cordy just for that extra mark or two a game.

 

[Dogsman16]

I would like more marking power from our KPDs. Currently Keath and Cordy average less marks than any other KPD duo in the league. However I don't think it's the most important thing, as long as they can stop the KPFs marking it and do their bit to cover the space to stop the smalls having room it'll work. Though I'd probably prefer Le Young over Cordy just for that extra mark or two a game.

Is there some stat that backs that up? We've played a couple of wet weather games too that might be a factor.

Don't think its of major importance when Wood/Crozier/Williams etc are marking just about everything at the moment.

Cordy doesn't mark anything but he's more focused on the one percenters than being an interceptor.

 

[bullish23]

We need to dismiss this notion that resting a whole lot of players at once is a realistic option.

Bevo is not going to leave all of Bont, Macrae, Libba and 4-5 other regulars out of any one game. Not even under the pretext that 2-3 of them are "sore" or suffering "tightness".

First reason is that the AFL will send a stern "please explain" and possibly issue sanctions. Perhaps not for tanking (although that could be argued) but for the bad look it gives the game. All clubs are on board to try to make this f**ed-up season work the best it can. Effectively throwing a game in order to give players a rest is not in keeping with that.

Second reason is that's not the way Bevo operates. He might adopt a risky approach at times (such as having Gowers plus 3 sub-10 gamers play against the Suns) but he is still angling to win those games and in fact pulled it off against GC. I doubt he'd ever deliberately approach a H&A game and say "I think we'll sacrifice this one".

Possibly a third reason might have something to do with sports betting. It should never come into it, but the AFL has sold its soul to the devil on that one so it's always going to be a background consideration.

We have a relatively young list (very few over 30), playing shortened games with extended breaks after goals and we are getting 5-6 day breaks, so it's not all that bad. Player recovery rates will be carefully monitored. I imagine midweek training is less intense than during a normal season.

No doubt there will be some players rested at some stage (eg Libba) but I'd be surprised if it was more than 2 at any one time.

Disagree. He’s done it before, twice.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Is there some stat that backs that up? We've played a couple of wet weather games too that might be a factor.

Don't think its of major importance when Wood/Crozier/Williams etc are marking just about everything at the moment.

Cordy doesn't mark anything but he's more focused on the one percenters than being an interceptor.

No I just checked the marking averages myself. Sydney were closest with Rampe and Aliir averaging 6.95, Keath and Cordy averaged 6.48. Not a perfect stat, as you say wet weather but it's also that a few of these players change roles round to round. Just gives us a rough idea. The most interesting thing is that Hamling and Roberts over the 16 finals averaged less marks than Keath and Cordy, so it's definitely not the most important stat. I still think we could do with a boost but happy for it to stay as is as long as the other defenders are playing to such a high level.

 

[Boristown]

No I just checked the marking averages myself. Sydney were closest with Rampe and Aliir averaging 6.95, Keath and Cordy averaged 6.48. Not a perfect stat, as you say wet weather but it's also that a few of these players change roles round to round. Just gives us a rough idea. The most interesting thing is that Hamling and Roberts over the 16 finals averaged less marks than Keath and Cordy, so it's definitely not the most important stat. I still think we could do with a boost but happy for it to stay as is as long as the other defenders are playing to such a high level.

What about Keath & Crozier combined?

 

[Charlie Bucket]

No I just checked the marking averages myself. Sydney were closest with Rampe and Aliir averaging 6.95, Keath and Cordy averaged 6.48. Not a perfect stat, as you say wet weather but it's also that a few of these players change roles round to round. Just gives us a rough idea. The most interesting thing is that Hamling and Roberts over the 16 finals averaged less marks than Keath and Cordy, so it's definitely not the most important stat. I still think we could do with a boost but happy for it to stay as is as long as the other defenders are playing to such a high level.

I wouldn’t be too worried about those numbers.
Our defence relies so much on a team defence where the third man chops out the 1on1 defender which Cordy Keath seem to be the majority of the time so not surprised to see their numbers down. Those two engage the main Fwd 50 targets, Wood, Crozier, Williams peel off to spoil or take the grab.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

What about Keath & Crozier combined?

Not much bettter, 6.76. Crozier alone averaged 6.18 marks last year, he hasn't had the greatest start but I'm hoping the 7 marks last game is a sign he'd getting back to his best.

The averages for our defenders: Wood (4.8), JJ (4.25), Williams (4.25), Daniel (3.62), Keath (3.62), Crozier (3.14) and Cordy (2.86). Wood up from last year, everyone else is down. Of course shortened quarters make this pretty useless to compare.

 

[Dogsman16]

How many of those marks are from sideways chip kicks? We seem to run and handball out of defence in comparison to most teams.

So many variables when judging that stat.

Intercept marks and contested marks in comparison would be a more interesting stat to look at.

 

[Prince Imperial]

It's not being spoken about a lot but Cordy's improvement this year has been very substantial. He was very weak one on one last year and I was a big critic but his defensive spoiling is now a highlight. I'm very happy so far with how he is going.

 

[BEaston]

I would like more marking power from our KPDs. Currently Keath and Cordy average less marks than any other KPD duo in the league. However I don't think it's the most important thing, as long as they can stop the KPFs marking it and do their bit to cover the space to stop the smalls having room it'll work. Though I'd probably prefer Le Young over Cordy just for that extra mark or two a game.

I agree with you it's not the most important thing in our system with Wood and Crozier helping aerially, a lot of the time it's just Cordy and Keath's job to tussle and lock up their opponent to allow one of these guys to fly. Keath takes the odd mark which is a nice bonus.

But anyway I looked into this a little bit... I looked at all players that have contested at least 11 Defence Contested 1v1s this season (I stopped at 11 as this was where Cordy came into the data set). Anyway, that makes up 57 players.

Keath is ranked 16th for intercept marks but doesn't have a high spoiling rate. Cordy doesn't take many marks but has a higher spoiling rate. When you look at Sparks (a made up stat combining spoils and intercept marks), they both sit in the bottom third of those 57 players. That would back up what we see that they aren't super strong aerially in our system.

Having said that though, Tim English is 10th in the whole league for intercept marks so he is definitely helping a lot in that area in defence.

With respect to winning 1v1s, Keath sits 9th of 57 for contested 1v1 win rate as he wins 36.8% of them. Cordy is not great 1v1, only winning 18.2% of his 1v1s.

Found an interesting stat though, of those 57 players Bailey Williams is a clear number one in 1v1 win rate with 63.6 % which is absolutely ridiculous. He is a huge outlier when looking at the distribution of this stat. Next best is 50% then there's only two other players higher than 45%. Beast man.

 

[dogwatch]

Disagree. He’s done it before, twice.

Which games?
I'm assuming R23 v Freo was one. Not a great comparison to the current situation for several reasons.
Which was the other occasion?

 

[BEaston]

I wouldn’t be too worried about those numbers.
Our defence relies so much on a team defence where the third man chops out the 1on1 defender which Cordy Keath seem to be the majority of the time so not surprised to see their numbers down. Those two engage the main Fwd 50 targets, Wood, Crozier, Williams peel off to spoil or take the grab.

the amount of times I post something only to find you've already said the same thing is ridiculous.

 

[Mister Snrub]

How many of those marks are from sideways chip kicks? We seem to run and handball out of defence in comparison to most teams.

So many variables when judging that stat.

Intercept marks and contested marks in comparison would be a more interesting stat to look at.

Exactly this - even just intercept possessions and rebounds. Teams like West Coast and Collingwood, who tend to chip the ball around their backline and take uncontested marks, are always going to average more than a team like ours who look to rush it forward using handpasses primarily.

Marking KPDs wouldn't really fit into that gameplan, so it's not a concern if Cordy and Keath aren't marking it often. Our defence is performing very well this year, so I'm not sure why anyone would be worried

 

[BEaston]

Also I was very surprised to find Crozier only has 6 intercept marks for the season.... wtf? Feels like he took that many just against gold coast.

 

[Mojorisin]

It's not being spoken about a lot but Cordy's improvement this year has been very substantial. He was very weak one on one last year and I was a big critic but his defensive spoiling is now a highlight. I'm very happy so far with how he is going.

I think having keath come in and take the bigger forward is the main reason for cordys rise. I've always been a massive fan and as that second defender he really looks comfortable

 

[dogwatch]

...

Found an interesting stat though, of those 57 players Bailey Williams is a clear number one in 1v1 win rate with 63.6 % which is absolutely ridiculous. He is a huge outlier when looking at the distribution of this stat. Next best is 50% then there's only two other players higher than 45%. Beast man.

Impressive! Is that aerial contests or any level contest?
I definitely rate him but I haven't seen anything in his matches that suggests he's dominant in the air.

Some day soon a footy journo is going to twig and praise him. Then they'll be all over him after that. It might take an oppo coach to single him out at a post-match press conference before the penny drops with the journos, though.

 

[RobsJourney]

Who goes to Dusty? I am thinking Crozier when he is forward and Toby or Libba when he is midfield. Bolton is also a worry but Bazza is the match up we back him in to play his natural game defend when necessary and attack when we have the ball.

Limiting turnovers is the way to beat the tigers. We need to be clean going forward. This game and the next 2 will define our season. To see if we are a contender or a pretender.

I think you guys are arguably the best side in the competition on your day. That's the key though, on your day, sometimes you are oddly off the boil, eg. the Carlton game. When you're on, you're sizzling. And your quick midfield ball movement is the exact antithesis to our gameplan sadly, where we try to hold teams up and turn it over, or at least make it easy for our defence to set up, you guys just rush that shit forward and it's hard to combat for us.

Unless you rest players on Wednesday (my fingers are crossed for NO Wood NO Bont given those apparent scans?!), I think you'll be too good. We're not 2019 Premiership Richmond at the moment, not meaning to make excuses but it's really the truth, just look at the talent we have out. We don't really have the depth of other sides, but we just happen to have a super good best 22-24.

Prestia, Edwards, Caddy, Houli, Astbury (won't be back for another few games), Nankervis are massive, massive outs for us. Right there you have Prestia our best midfielder, Edwards our most creative and dangerous player aside from Dusty and at times perhaps our second best midfielder, Caddy our current best defensive winger, Houli easily our best rebounding half back and possession accumulator, Astbury our main "gorilla" defender, and Nankervis easily our best ruckman especially around the ground (not so much the tap outs, I mean marking, movement speed, tackling, possessions, general skill haha..)

So anyway yeah, lose to us and it's still too hard to read for sure where you're at, but I'd still be confident in you guys (genuinely do like the Dogs except when we play yas, my first year back in Aus after a stint in Japan was 2016, I was at the grand final too ) doing well this year. Beat us and, well, you're a good chance of finishing top 4 hey.

heck it's annoying being a Richmond supporter though sometimes, we lose to the Giants just, yet the headlines are all "sweet sweet revenge for GWS" but no one acknowledges there were 8 (?) big changes for us from the grand final...

Anyways good luck for Wednesday fellas, just came here to see the level of optimism/sureness in you guys, didn't mean to end up writing such a long post, hope it's a good game

 

[dogwatch]

I think having keath come in and take the bigger forward is the main reason for cordys rise. I've always been a massive fan and as that second defender he really looks comfortable

Last year the thinking was he needed to be third defender in order to shine, so he's moving up in the world!

 

[Mister Snrub]

I think you guys are arguably the best side in the competition on your day. That's the key though, on your day, sometimes you are oddly off the boil, eg. the Carlton game. When you're on, you're sizzling. And your quick midfield ball movement is the exact antithesis to our gameplan sadly, where we try to hold teams up and turn it over, or at least make it easy for our defence to set up, you guys just rush that sh*t forward and it's hard to combat for us.

Unless you rest players on Wednesday (my fingers are crossed for NO Wood NO Bont given those apparent scans?!), I think you'll be too good. We're not 2019 Premiership Richmond at the moment, not meaning to make excuses but it's really the truth, just look at the talent we have out. We don't really have the depth of other sides, but we just happen to have a super good best 22-24.

Prestia, Edwards, Caddy, Houli, Astbury (won't be back for another few games), Nankervis are massive, massive outs for us. Right there you have Prestia our best midfielder, Edwards our most creative and dangerous player aside from Dusty and at times perhaps our second best midfielder, Caddy our current best defensive winger, Houli easily our best rebounding half back and possession accumulator, Astbury our main "gorilla" defender, and Nankervis easily our best ruckman especially around the ground (not so much the tap outs, I mean marking, movement speed, tackling, possessions, general skill haha..)

So anyway yeah, lose to us and it's still too hard to read for sure where you're at, but I'd still be confident in you guys (genuinely do like the Dogs except when we play yas, my first year back in Aus after a stint in Japan was 2016, I was at the grand final too ) doing well this year. Beat us and, well, you're a good chance of finishing top 4 hey.

**** it's annoying being a Richmond supporter though sometimes, we lose to the Giants just, yet the headlines are all "sweet sweet revenge for GWS" but no one acknowledges there were 8 (?) big changes for us from the grand final...

Anyways good luck for Wednesday fellas, just came here to see the level of optimism/sureness in you guys, didn't mean to end up writing such a long post, hope it's a good game

We will have Dunkley, Naughton, Duryea, Jong and possibly Hunter out from our best 22. Duryea and Jong are more role players, but Dunkley, Naughton and Hunter are all potentially top 5 players at the Dogs (Bont and Macrae the others remaining in our 22). Dunkley is our best big bodied inside mid, Duryea out best small lock down defender, Naughton our best forward, Hunter our best wing, and Jong was one of our most in-form players prior to his injury.

Your outs are more significant, but we will be far from a full strength side, so I wouldn't count you out just yet. We do match up well on you guys (1 loss in last 6 games, and it was only be a few points) so hopefully that helps us over the line.

 

[Mojorisin]

I think you guys are arguably the best side in the competition on your day. That's the key though, on your day, sometimes you are oddly off the boil, eg. the Carlton game. When you're on, you're sizzling. And your quick midfield ball movement is the exact antithesis to our gameplan sadly, where we try to hold teams up and turn it over, or at least make it easy for our defence to set up, you guys just rush that sh*t forward and it's hard to combat for us.

Unless you rest players on Wednesday (my fingers are crossed for NO Wood NO Bont given those apparent scans?!), I think you'll be too good. We're not 2019 Premiership Richmond at the moment, not meaning to make excuses but it's really the truth, just look at the talent we have out. We don't really have the depth of other sides, but we just happen to have a super good best 22-24.

Prestia, Edwards, Caddy, Houli, Astbury (won't be back for another few games), Nankervis are massive, massive outs for us. Right there you have Prestia our best midfielder, Edwards our most creative and dangerous player aside from Dusty and at times perhaps our second best midfielder, Caddy our current best defensive winger, Houli easily our best rebounding half back and possession accumulator, Astbury our main "gorilla" defender, and Nankervis easily our best ruckman especially around the ground (not so much the tap outs, I mean marking, movement speed, tackling, possessions, general skill haha..)

So anyway yeah, lose to us and it's still too hard to read for sure where you're at, but I'd still be confident in you guys (genuinely do like the Dogs except when we play yas, my first year back in Aus after a stint in Japan was 2016, I was at the grand final too ) doing well this year. Beat us and, well, you're a good chance of finishing top 4 hey.

**** it's annoying being a Richmond supporter though sometimes, we lose to the Giants just, yet the headlines are all "sweet sweet revenge for GWS" but no one acknowledges there were 8 (?) big changes for us from the grand final...

Anyways good luck for Wednesday fellas, just came here to see the level of optimism/sureness in you guys, didn't mean to end up writing such a long post, hope it's a good game

Although it sucks in the short term for you guys missing such a wealth of experience I think it is only going to be a positive in the long term. It's given guys a crack at the top level that wouldn't have otherwise and some of them are showing real improvement (eggmollesse-smith pardon the spelling)
Yes you don't have great depth/experienced depth however getting games into dow and rcd will help you next year when injuries strike as they ineinevitably do in this game.
As you do for the dogs I also have a spot for the tigers as I'm close with a few people over there so although it hurt we had a hangover in 2017 (some may say it didn't end) it was good to see you guys take the mantle with similar high pressure footy

 

[RobsJourney]

We will have Dunkley, Naughton, Duryea, Jong and possibly Hunter out from our best 22. Duryea and Jong are more role players, but Dunkley, Naughton and Hunter are all potentially top 5 players at the Dogs (Bont and Macrae the others remaining in our 22). Dunkley is our best big bodied inside mid, Duryea out best small lock down defender, Naughton our best forward, Hunter our best wing, and Jong was one of our most in-form players prior to his injury.

Your outs are more significant, but we will be far from a full strength side, so I wouldn't count you out just yet. We do match up well on you guys (1 loss in last 6 games, and it was only be a few points) so hopefully that helps us over the line.

Yeah to be fair I had totally forgotten about Dunkley and Naughton being out. Dunkley in your top 2-5 players for sure hey, Naughton one of the most promising forwards and absolutely destroyed us last year, marked everything he saw. Hunter I assume will play? If not then yeah, that also helps us.

Personally I like Jong but don't see him as best 22 anymore? But always looks good for yas, which makes me jealous of your midfield talent... I'm shocked McLean is always on the outer, for a period in I think 2018 wasn't he like 30 possessions a game and a superstar? Is he just super inconsistent or something? Always looks a great player whenever I've seen him...

Duryea I reckon doesn't improve you guys that much, seems a tad slow, but I cannot begin to remotely know your 22 better so will take your word for it

Well anyway those outs do help us so we'll see

 

[RobsJourney]

Although it sucks in the short term for you guys missing such a wealth of experience I think it is only going to be a positive in the long term. It's given guys a crack at the top level that wouldn't have otherwise and some of them are showing real improvement (eggmollesse-smith pardon the spelling)
Yes you don't have great depth/experienced depth however getting games into dow and rcd will help you next year when injuries strike as they ineinevitably do in this game.
As you do for the dogs I also have a spot for the tigers as I'm close with a few people over there so although it hurt we had a hangover in 2017 (some may say it didn't end) it was good to see you guys take the mantle with similar high pressure footy

Yeah the hangover was unexpected but I'm at least glad we got a chance as a result (we still lost to you blokes that year haha...). It's funny cause at times you look just as good as 2016 if not better. Stringer and Picken gone hurts a bit maybe but yeah, anyway, I do hope yas get another one soon if it can't be us.

And you're right, I'm hoping to see Dow soon, from all reports he's great

 

[DognBones]

Whatever we do at selection this week we must make changes to the forward line, we just don't have any reliable goal kickers with the exception of Wallis who is good for 1 or 2.
Not knowing who will be available, my preference would be McLean and Lloyd for Weightman (had a taste, now to work on a more rounded game) and Gowers (enough said).
Not convinced that McLean and Lloyd are in any great form but at least they have more potential to score than those outs.
Probably, until Naughton returns it will be a case of shuffling deck chairs.