Changes v St Kilda

[stickman11]

sorry scrap the CJ or Whelan in, instead rivers haha

Chris Johnson has been in great form for Sandy. Just needs the opportunity to step it up a gear in the seniors.

 

[saj_21]

Everyone gets caught up in stats as the sole reason to play certain players. M4C when will you realise hit outs are the most over rated stat in afl these days??? Look at Sandilands probably won the taps out for the last 3 years has it helped freo at all NO!!!

You have to look at PJ's work around the ground and his attack on the ball and his never give up attitude which along with his ability to win the ball far outwieghs jamars claims to be in the side this week. Sure jamar gets more tap outs but he wouldn't get the ball more than 7 ot 8 times a game.

In the end PJ's ability to get the ball more often outweighs Jamars ability to get more tap outs.

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

Everyone gets caught up in stats as the sole reason to play certain players. M4C when will you realise hit outs are the most over rated stat in afl these days??? Look at Sandilands probably won the taps out for the last 3 years has it helped freo at all NO!!!

You have to look at PJ's work around the ground and his attack on the ball and his never give up attitude which along with his ability to win the ball far outwieghs jamars claims to be in the side this week. Sure jamar gets more tap outs but he wouldn't get the ball more than 7 ot 8 times a game.

In the end PJ's ability to get the ball more often outweighs Jamars ability to get more tap outs.

Fine. Lets ignore raw hitouts. Jamar averages more then 1 hitout directly to advantage then PJ a game, this only happens 2 or 3 times a quarter so an extra 1 from your backup ruckman is important.

What's this BS about PJ having a never give up attitude? I'm a big fan of PJ, but it's not like he's raking in the hard ball gets, he gets more possessions then Jamar solely because he is more mobile so he gets into space more often.

Also, on the weekend PJ did almost nothing around the ground. He got a 50m penalty which got him a goal. Besides that he was shizen, he only had an extra 2 kicks then Jamar. As you keep ignoring it, i'll mention again Jamar's 6 tackles. Count it 1,2,3,4,5,6 tackles. Most ruckman have less then 2 a game, so that shows Jamar desperation.

Hitouts aside, which Jamar is clearly better, Jamar's 8 touches(3 contested) & 6 tackles was much more valuable on the weekend then PJs 10 touches(1 contested) and 1 tackle.

On that, Jamar was clearly better on the weekend. If PJ had good form to fall back on then you'd play him but because he's coming back from injury he doesn't, so selection should fall more on to current form and PJs current form is that game. So Jamar gets selected

I'll guess we'll find out in 19 minutes. White's probably still out and they'll both play.

 

[RandB]

From the AFL site:

ST KILDA V MELBOURNE

MELBOURNE
B: Matthew Warnock, Colin Garland, Daniel Bell
HB: James Frawley, Ben Holland, Cameron Bruce
C: Clint Bartram, Brock McLean, Matthew Bate
HF: Brad Green, Russell Robertson, Brent Moloney
F: Simon Buckley, Brad Miller, Austin Wonaeamirri
Foll: Jeff White, James McDonald, Nathan Jones
I/C (from): Jace Bode, Lynden Dunn, Chris Johnson,Colin Sylvia, Paul Wheatley, Paul Johnson, Adem Yze
In: Bode, Dunn, Johnson, Sylvia, Wheatley, White, Yze
Out: Aaron Davey (hamstring), Cale Morton (flu), Shane Valenti, Mark Jamar

White in for Jamar.

Dunn, Yze in for forward options.

Morton flu but could use a break anyway.

No FLASH

Sylvia logical return

Others probably emergencies but I am curious about Wheatley. Is he there for a defensive option or could he possibly play forward? 189cm, can kick 50+ meters on the run or set shot, defensive rolls in the past make him a reasonable tackler (forward pressure), more mobile than Holland (listed at CHB) and makes better decisions up forward than in defence under pressure when required to find a target. Maybe I'm off on this but I reckon he's worth a go up forward. We need some sort of edge up forward and surely he is good for a couple of marks a quarter.

 

[sammy_18]

From the AFL site:

ST KILDA V MELBOURNE

MELBOURNE
B: Matthew Warnock, Colin Garland, Daniel Bell
HB: James Frawley, Ben Holland, Cameron Bruce
C: Clint Bartram, Brock McLean, Matthew Bate
HF: Brad Green, Russell Robertson, Brent Moloney
F: Simon Buckley, Brad Miller, Austin Wonaeamirri
Foll: Jeff White, James McDonald, Nathan Jones
I/C (from): Jace Bode, Lynden Dunn, Chris Johnson,Colin Sylvia, Paul Wheatley, Paul Johnson, Adem Yze
In: Bode, Dunn, Johnson, Sylvia, Wheatley, White, Yze
Out: Aaron Davey (hamstring), Cale Morton (flu), Shane Valenti, Mark Jamar

very stiff valenti

 

[saj_21]

Fine. Lets ignore raw hitouts. Jamar averages more then 1 hitout directly to advantage then PJ a game, this only happens 2 or 3 times a quarter so an extra 1 from your backup ruckman is important.

What's this BS about PJ having a never give up attitude? I'm a big fan of PJ, but it's not like he's raking in the hard ball gets, he gets more possessions then Jamar solely because he is more mobile so he gets into space more often.

Also, on the weekend PJ did almost nothing around the ground. He got a 50m penalty which got him a goal. Besides that he was shizen, he only had an extra 2 kicks then Jamar. As you keep ignoring it, i'll mention again Jamar's 6 tackles. Count it 1,2,3,4,5,6 tackles. Most ruckman have less then 2 a game, so that shows Jamar desperation.

Hitouts aside, which Jamar is clearly better, Jamar's 8 touches(3 contested) & 6 tackles was much more valuable on the weekend then PJs 10 touches(1 contested) and 1 tackle.

On that, Jamar was clearly better on the weekend. If PJ had good form to fall back on then you'd play him but because he's coming back from injury he doesn't, so selection should fall more on to current form and PJs current form is that game. So Jamar gets selected

I'll guess we'll find out in 19 minutes. White's probably still out and they'll both play.

Suprise Suprise Jamar was omitted becuase he is no good. Your exactly right PJ gets more possessions becuase he is a better footballer than jamar. You've based your selection on last weeks game when the hole year should be taken into account. Apart from the freo game Jamar has been terrible and PJ has been good.

And will you get over you hit out fetish they are useless stats. Lets pick a guy cos he gets 1 extra hit out to advantage per game what a load of shit, lets totally forget that jamar cannot find the ball and on the 2 or 3 occasions he does he turns it over becuase he can't kick.

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

Suprise Suprise Jamar was omitted becuase he is no good. Your exactly right PJ gets more possessions becuase he is a better footballer than jamar. You've based your selection on last weeks game when the hole year should be taken into account. Apart from the freo game Jamar has been terrible and PJ has been good.

And will you get over you hit out fetish they are useless stats. Lets pick a guy cos he gets 1 extra hit out to advantage per game what a load of shit, lets totally forget that jamar cannot find the ball and on the 2 or 3 occasions he does he turns it over becuase he can't kick.

No need to be a smug about it champ.

I thought they'd pick PJ, but i was saying that maybe for this week Jamar should be picked.

It's all irrelevant anyway, I would've selected PJ as well. My original post was just questioning why everyone had automatically dropped the russian when PJ isn't playing that well, but i guess you missed that one. I would've selected PJ, but at least considered Jamar as i'm sure the coaching staff did, i just asked why everyone else had it written in stone that PJ would play.

 

[RandB]

Suprise Suprise Jamar was omitted becuase he is no good. Your exactly right PJ gets more possessions becuase he is a better footballer than jamar. You've based your selection on last weeks game when the hole year should be taken into account. Apart from the freo game Jamar has been terrible and PJ has been good.

And will you get over you hit out fetish they are useless stats. Lets pick a guy cos he gets 1 extra hit out to advantage per game what a load of shit, lets totally forget that jamar cannot find the ball and on the 2 or 3 occasions he does he turns it over becuase he can't kick.

You clearly have no idea how the ruck works do you?

 

[RandB]

Everyone gets caught up in stats as the sole reason to play certain players. M4C when will you realise hit outs are the most over rated stat in afl these days??? Look at Sandilands probably won the taps out for the last 3 years has it helped freo at all NO!!!

You have to look at PJ's work around the ground and his attack on the ball and his never give up attitude which along with his ability to win the ball far outwieghs jamars claims to be in the side this week. Sure jamar gets more tap outs but he wouldn't get the ball more than 7 ot 8 times a game.

In the end PJ's ability to get the ball more often outweighs Jamars ability to get more tap outs.

No it doesn't. We have a multitude of players who can get the ball. Holding your own at the centre bounce and stopages is still very important. Quite simply PJ is a ruckman who can't ruck. I admire his efforts around the ground but not many ruckmen in the AFL keep their spot if they can't ruck.

 

[davey_magik]

When the final teams come out tonight I'll do my matchups for both teams.

GO DEES!

 

[CaptainDavey]

I said it in another thread but I'll say it here, should Bode play I'm going to have a period

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

I said it in another thread but I'll say it here, should Bode play I'm going to have a period

Little bit too graphic.

But i have a similar thought process about Dutchy being named at CHB.

Maybe they're hoping to confuse rossy lyon with some creative team sheets. They should've named rivers full forward, robbo on the wing, white on the bench and bartram in the ruck.

 

[saj_21]

M4C please read this article:

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/afl/thestars/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_great_ruck_myth/

It highlights what i have disputing with you over the last 2 or so days.

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

M4C please read this article:

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/afl/thestars/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_great_ruck_myth/

It highlights what i have disputing with you over the last 2 or so days.

I don't need to read it, it's an opinion. And i think Healy is a clown, great player, but a clown.

How about read my post. It was just highlighting the fact that everyone instantly dismissed any possiblity of Jamar playing.

And if you believe what Healy is saying is Gospel, then you should be backing Meesan to play ahead of PJ, as he is rated as being like a tall wingman, a poor ruckman but good around the grounds.

 

[pete82]

not wanting to butt into your debate but...

isn't it strange that healy completely left brendan lade out of his 'insightful' article...

watching lade's tap work to burgoyne is one of the highlights of our game imo.

healy is sounding like grant thomas when he all but wrote off the role of the ruckman in the game and stkilda have been trying to correct this deficiency for the last two years. he is not analysing ruckwork, he's analysing bad ruckwork.

healy, while i've been told was a great player, is not much of a journalist and should consider moving his selective narrow minded analysis to today tonight or a current affair.

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

not wanting to butt into your debate but...

isn't it strange that healy completely left brendan lade out of his 'insightful' article...

watching lade's tap work to burgoyne is one of the highlights of our game imo.

healy is sounding like grant thomas when he all but wrote off the role of the ruckman in the game and stkilda have been trying to correct this deficiency for the last two years. he is not analysing ruckwork, he's analysing bad ruckwork.

healy, while i've been told was a great player, is not much of a journalist and should consider moving his selective narrow minded analysis to today tonight or a current affair.

What was that dog, there's a song about him, i think his name-o ended in O?

 

[RandB]

M4C please read this article:

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/afl/thestars/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_great_ruck_myth/

It highlights what i have disputing with you over the last 2 or so days.

I respect Gerard Healy and find many of the facts/stats raised interesting but his conclusions are flawed IMO and he has skewed too much of his analysis to the centre bounce only. Throw ins on the wing and taps in forward pockets are also critical. Also much of what he talks about isn't realy applicable for our situation for comparing Jamar to PJ. This is more about how the impact of ruck work has changed since yesteryear.

FACT

"For many reasons, including defensive strategies of coaches at stoppages, the effectiveness of ruckwork is more myth than reality today." That is true however this does not mean that you compromise your ruckman. You still need a good tap ruckman to keep the status quo. If we continually played PJ you will notice over time how we suffer at stopages.

"22 per cent of hitouts go to advantage across the competition. ON average only one in five, at most, of the clearances in football can be in any way attributed to ruckmen" I appreciate these statistics on some level however this still does not mean that you go with a ruckman who can not ruck. These statistics are skewed by clubs going with their best rucking options and where the cream of ruckman play against each other. If half the teams in the AFL went with their best ruckman and half the other teams went with duds, these stats would be the same on average however the teams with the better rucks would be absolutely in front relative to the other teams without. It is simple, the less likley your ruckman is to win the hit out, the more likely the opposition ruckman is to win the hit out.

"And that is without even trying to estimate how many “hitouts to advantage” are the work of the clearance player who turns a non-directed tap into a first possession." I don't think anyone has ever been stupid enough to think that a good ruckman is going to deliver a win on a plate. Obviously to make full use of a ruckmans ability you need a good midfield contingency to capitalise. This does not denounce the advantage of a good ruckman.

"consider the two key jobs of the ruckman at a contest: winning the tap and then successfully directing it" This is Healy's main flaw and this is why the statistics are over rated with respect to efficient tap work. Yes, the best ruckmen get more hitouts - that is raw ability and yes, the more often you win the tap then the more often you will find one of your players. This does not mean that more often as a percentage of taps won that you will find one of your own players. Anyone who understands all the benefits of a good tap ruckman and has done basic statistics will understand how efficincy drops off the more contests a ruckman can get his hands on.

Healy is misunderstanding a fundamental co-relation between rucking ability and efficiency. The biggest fallacy with regards to the ruck is that the better your ruckman is at tap work then the more efficient he is. Jamar kills PJ in tapwork ability yet PJ has a better clearance%. There is a very obvious reason why this is yet neither Healy nor many posters get it. In fact it is blindingly simple. At centre bounces and throw ins, PJ usually only gets his hands on the ones which fall in his lap so to speak. Obviously any ruckman who only taps the balls which are in their favour will find a target more often (as a percentage of all hitouts) than a ruckman who gets his hands on not only the easy ones but also the 50/50 bounces/throw ins and the ones where they advantage the opponent yet he still manages to get a hand to the ball and spoil the effectiveness of the other ruckman.

To sum it up, because Jamar is a better tap ruckman, he gets his hand on the ball more often and his effectiveness drops purley by statistics. The better the ruckman, the worse their effectiveness as a percentage of all taps. If a bounce favours the opposition ruckman but Jamar is good enough to get a hand to it to spoil his opponent, that goes down as a tap or hit out but because he didn't put it down a Melbourne players throat it is classified as ineffectual. PJ on the other hand just wouldn't get to it full stop so the opponent is more likely to win it and that hurts us yet PJs efficiency (statistically) does not suffer as he technically didn't get a hit out and hence this could not be classified as an inefficient tap. The 8 hit outs PJ got against Hawthorn suggest a heck load more where he made no contest what so ever and that can only help the opposition.
_________________________________________________________

COX

"In 2008 Cox has won a hitout to advantage from 10.3 per cent of his ruck contests.
Of major interest, though, is the fact that this figure is 25 per cent down on his average from 2003-07 when he had Chris Judd, Ben Cousins and Daniel Kerr at his feet." This works both ways Gerard. Dean Cox has not changed fundamentally in rucking ability. This suggests that when the Eagles midfield was on song, they were getting over 35% of Cox's hitouts to advantage. Does this mean that Cox's rucking ability is obsolete? of course not, West Coast are simply rebuilding in the middle. Once they improve in the middle Cox's ruck work will be more crucial than ever.

SANDILANDS

"he’s had 74 more hitouts than anyone else in the competition. who cares which ruckman gets their hand on the ball first if it doesn’t go anywhere?" This quite simply is the fault of the Fremantle midfielders. Also read my previous points. These hitouts also include contesting 50/50 situations and spoiling your opponent with a long reach when the bounce favours them.

FACT

"Fremantle has won the hitouts in every game but has lost the clearances in every game.
THIS is an indictment on the Dockers’ clearance players and their coaches, and it simply has to be addressed before the year is out.
It is also a strong indicator that ruck efficiency is about a marriage of two equal halves, not the master-servant relationship that is usually portrayed.
Sandilands is the one man who could single-handedly return ruckwork to its former significance, but only if those around him - on and off the field - better utilise this resource." This is exactly correct so what is the real conclusion to all of this and further more how does this or most points raised have relevance to Jamar and PJ?

FACT

"What the Geelong pair did do was play well around the ground and at stoppages, nullifying a potential advantage of Port Adelaide and providing their clearance players with a neutral playing field." A ruckman who can get his hands on the ball at a stopage is more likely to carry out this exact situation. Jamar is quite good at this, PJ on the other hand does not contest well enough.

"And as far as ruckwork goes that’s all you really need or want—a competitive effort the gives you an even chance at ground level." Again, a ruckman who can get his hands on the ball at a stopage is more likely to carry out this exact situation.

TROY SIMMONDS

"In reality there is very little difference between ruckmen in their tapwork" IMO this is true in the sense of the majority of genuine tap ruckmen in the league. If we are going to tie this in with PJ then he quite simply does not constitute a genuine tap ruckman. PJ does not contest enough and would get beaten clinically more often than not.

SAM NEWMAN

"ruck coaches teach the same theory, so any advantage has been largely neutralised." This is true if you have the best against the best but not if there is a missmatch in ability between a genuine tap ruckman and a fill in ruckman like PJ.

Everything Healy has talked about reflects on the fact that many teams do not take full use of their tap ruckmen. More importantly he ignores the way that statistics can be skewed and how winning a tap in a non-advantageous position is just as good if not better than a make shift ruckman barreling in his opponent. IMO Jamar is good at both.

This articicle is quite interesting however it is in no way shape or form a testament to PJ being the better ruck option than Jamar. Jamar neutralises his opponent by body work and spoiling. Jamar wins more taps and hence more taps to our players and gives White the option of playing elsewhere more often. Jamar is good at stopages up forward and on the boundary line throw ins as well. Jamar's ruckwork stats do not reflect his true value. Where PJ would not be a show at all, Jamar can turn a bad situation into at least a contest or spoil. This is as good as any 1%er around the ground yet Jamar's statistics ironically suffer as far as efficiency goes because the taps go up but the taps to team mates suffers as a percentage. Just look at his total hit out wins this year and think about how many of those were where he actually nullified his opponent instead of being a spectator. PJ doesn't get his hands on the ball enough at stopages and even when he does it is when it falls in his lap which makes it easier to be more effective. If Jamar was only interested in the bounces that landed in his lap he would probably have an efficiency of about 50%.

The moral is, you can eat up all of this stuff but you only understand how good a player is when you miss them.