Science/Environment Climate change predictions that were wrong

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

One thing I don't understand is that global warming is supposed to increase the water cycle - evaporation, clouds, rain, but we are seeing a much less cloudy Earth due to climate change.

 

[CD Xbow]

One thing I don't understand is that global warming is supposed to increase the water cycle - evaporation, clouds, rain, but we are seeing a much less cloudy Earth due to climate change.

While warm air holds more moisture (each 1C rise increases what content 5-7% more water) there are other effects that occur that can make regions drier. Warming alters jet streams, storm tracks, monsoon systems, and pressure patterns, this can result in some regions (especially mid-latitudes) seeing rain and storm tracks shift poleward leaving former rain belts drier. Also as the water cycle becomes more volatile, rapid transitions tend to occur between drought and flood so communities face alternating extremes.

 

[barreness]

Perth had it's coldest day since '75 or something, rip global warming

I joke, It's actually worse than the IPCC reports will tell you, they're conservative and political in nature. I recommend James Hansen's work as a guide to what the future may offer.

Weather has been getting wilder; that includes hot and cold spots, droughts and floods, fires and rapidly escalating cyclones, and so on

Some very worrying signs in the Antarctic atm, many tipping points have been hit and we have no powder dry

 

[Seeds]

A beauty from 2012

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Yeah but those predictions were based on emission forecasts and temperature rises as if the world outside Europe didnt act.

Despite what gen z say. The world has acted and emissions have dramatically fallen compared to forecasts back in 2000. I know. I was one of those emission forecasters.

Has the world acted as much as I would like. Definately not. But the scary forecasts I and every other emission forecaster were estimating back in the early 2000s are going to be avoided.

 

[Long Live HFC]

Yeah but those predictions were based on emission forecasts and temperature rises as if the world outside Europe didnt act.

Despite what gen z say. The world has acted and emissions have dramatically fallen compared to forecasts back in 2000. I know. I was one of those emission forecasters.

Has the world acted as much as I would like. Definately not. But the scary forecasts I and every other emission forecaster were estimating back in the early 2000s are going to be avoided.

These people are peons.

 

[Green Hammer]

Yeah but those predictions were based on emission forecasts and temperature rises as if the world outside Europe didnt act.

Despite what gen z say. The world has acted and emissions have dramatically fallen compared to forecasts back in 2000. I know. I was one of those emission forecasters.

Has the world acted as much as I would like. Definately not. But the scary forecasts I and every other emission forecaster were estimating back in the early 2000s are going to be avoided.

How do you know that? What is the projected temp rise by 2050?

 

[Seeds]

How do you know that? What is the projected temp rise by 2050?

The worst temp forecasts we see now at 2100 is around 3.5 degrees. Most baselines are between 2.5-3 degrees. The IPCC still keeps some of the higher older forecasts around to scare people but they are old forecasts. Not current.

Back in early 2000s when i started out our baselines were 3.5-5 degrees and forecasts of 5-7 degrees were still considered plausible. Solar prices were ridiculous then and few thought they would become competitive. EVS were a pipe dream.

 

[Green Hammer]

The worst temp forecasts we see now at 2100 is around 3.5 degrees. Most baselines are between 2.5-3 degrees. The IPCC still keeps some of the higher older forecasts around to scare people but they are old forecasts. Not current.

Back in early 2000s when i started out our baselines were 3.5-5 degrees and forecasts of 5-7 degrees were still considered plausible. Solar prices were ridiculous then and few thought they would become competitive. EVS were a pipe dream.

what would be the effect on the ecology and on physical world in a 2.5 to 3 degree average temp rise? I am expecting you wont answer .

 

[Seeds]

what would be the effect on the ecology and on physical world in a 2.5 to 3 degree average temp rise? I am expecting you wont answer .

It will be bad in many areas for humans. But not civilisation changing like 4-7.

 

[Green Hammer]

It will be bad in many areas for humans. But not civilisation changing like 4-7.

Can you elaborate on the areas of bad for humans ?

 

[bluskyreamin]

Wouldn't worry too much, we're doing our best to burn the planet but it's far more likely now that nuclear war will throw us out of our brief interglacial. Human civilization tends to take off in warm periods and grind to a halt in the cold so grab your leccy blanket and get a nice warm cup of milo.

 

[Chronz]

https://www.monash.edu/mcccrh/proje...e-ski-season-on-thin-ice-as-temperatures-rise

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Only lost 25 percent, and not 60 percent as predicted.

We have at least another hundred years of snow existing in Australia left. Huzzah!

A whole 50 years! Climate is a dynamic system, ever changing over thousands of years. What a terrible take and using statistical bias too? Insane behaviour.

 

[Malifice]

A whole 50 years! Climate is a dynamic system, ever changing over thousands of years.

Jesus Christ.

Even the oil and gas companies acknowledge man-made climate change (global warming).

How sad it must be to sit here drinking Kool Aide that even they've moved past spinning.

 

[Chronz]

Jesus Christ.

Even the oil and gas companies acknowledge man-made climate change (global warming).

How sad it must be to sit here drinking Kool Aide that even they've moved past spinning.

50 years of data.

 

[Chronz]

A beauty from 2012

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Hey m8. I've got a good one... Everything Al Gore has said.

 

[CD Xbow]

Can you elaborate on the areas of bad for humans ?

If you look at SA, with a third of it's coast affected by the algal bloom and anoxia destroying the marine ecosystem, that is the future of our seas. The warmer we get the worse it will become. As I explained in an earlier post, the sea is affected by warming more than land because oxygen levels in the sea start off much lower and are affected by changes in ocean chemistry, which tends toward hotter, more acidic and anoxic oceans. Many of the mass extinctions of the past have involved rising CO2, ocean acidification and anoxia. Unfortunately sea creatures are very vulnerable to these changes.

We are currently in the middle of an 'insect apocalypse' with many areas reporting 76% decrease in insects thought to be due mainly to global warming. Insects are the unsung heroes of ecosystems—pollinating crops, recycling nutrients, and feeding countless other species. Their decline is a warning about broader ecological collapse.

Sea level rise. I don't know why folks are not more concerned about this, the rate of this increasing and we can draw nice maps and show which areas will be inundated through the century. In 1900 it was 1.5 mm a year, 2000 2.5 mm, 2020 4.3 mm and in 2024 5.9 mm a year. I recently went back to where I grew up and most of the beaches had washed away compared to 50 years ago. Despite this morons say global warming is a hoax. The only way sea level rises is if the globe gets warmer.

The effects on land.....

 

[bluskyreamin]

Meh the billionaires through AI control and robotics will get us before the Earth does.

 

[barreness]

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2025/01/02/Reality-Check-Energy-Transition/

“The energy transition is a slogan but not a scientific concept,” explains Fressoz. “It derives its legitimacy from a false representation of history. Industrial revolutions are certainly not energy transitions, they are a massive expansion of all kinds of raw materials and energy sources.”
Fressoz is not the first to make the dramatic assessment that faith in a green energy transition is misplaced because it ignores the complexity of the energy use (and its connections to everything) as well as the difficulty of designing a simpler civilization that uses fundamentally less energy.


The Australian geologist and mining engineer Simon Michaux has added up the sheer volume of metals and minerals needed to replace approximately 46,000 fossil-fuel-based power stations with nearly 800,000 renewable ones. His conclusion: there will be severe material shortages and bottlenecks to the extent that “the green transition will not work.”


Frezzos and Michaux are both worth having a look up on various podcasts/books.

Emissions haven't even peaked, those that say it's solved from some techno argument are foolhardy

 

[Geelong Dynasty]

If you look at SA, with a third of it's coast affected by the algal bloom and anoxia destroying the marine ecosystem, that is the future of our seas. The warmer we get the worse it will become. As I explained in an earlier post, the sea is affected by warming more than land because oxygen levels in the sea start off much lower and are affected by changes in ocean chemistry, which tends toward hotter, more acidic and anoxic oceans. Many of the mass extinctions of the past have involved rising CO2, ocean acidification and anoxia. Unfortunately sea creatures are very vulnerable to these changes.

We are currently in the middle of an 'insect apocalypse' with many areas reporting 76% decrease in insects thought to be due mainly to global warming. Insects are the unsung heroes of ecosystems—pollinating crops, recycling nutrients, and feeding countless other species. Their decline is a warning about broader ecological collapse.

Sea level rise. I don't know why folks are not more concerned about this, the rate of this increasing and we can draw nice maps and show which areas will be inundated through the century. In 1900 it was 1.5 mm a year, 2000 2.5 mm, 2020 4.3 mm and in 2024 5.9 mm a year. I recently went back to where I grew up and most of the beaches had washed away compared to 50 years ago. Despite this morons say global warming is a hoax. The only way sea level rises is if the globe gets warmer.

The effects on land.....

Which beaches have washed away were you grew up?

 

[CD Xbow]

Which beaches have washed away were you grew up?

I've been down Mornington peninsula and South Gippsland and the reduction of the size of the beaches is quite marked. Guess that what happens when sea level rises.

 

[Geelong Dynasty]

I've been down Mornington peninsula and South Gippsland and the reduction of the size of the beaches is quite marked. Guess that what happens when sea level rises.

Sounds dramatic, im sure theres plenty of evidence of these washed away beaches, photos, news articles and whatnot.
Do these now extinct beaches have/had names?

 

[Geelong Dynasty]

I recently went back to where I grew up and most of the beaches had washed away compared to 50 years ago.

Maybe you just went at high tide

 

[rank and file]

Maybe you just went at high tide

Horror impact for schoolies.

 

[Geelong Dynasty]

Horror impact for schoolies.

Haha, not sure if serious?

Do you think that temporary situation was a result of rising sea level and not the result of a storm?

Next youll be showing a photo of a flooded lake as proof

 

[barreness]

Yeh eroded beaches aren't good evidence of climate change. Beaches do constantly erode even under a reasonably stable climate, often man made things like groins and harbours can change flows and sand deposits dramatically.

The kilometres thick glaciers over Antarctica and Greenland are a major concern, as well as the sea ice thinning around them.