Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

[SA HAWK]

I'm not sure about that.

Reckon it'll be very close.

Pies backline looks terrible without Howe.

Crows are the last team they want to play without him.

 

[Worm4]

Pies backline looks terrible without Howe.

Crows are the last team they want to play without him.

Pies have Billy. They'll be fine

 

[Handsuper47]

They'd better hope Melbourne don't get a new coach bounce...

View attachment 2389051

As hilarious as this outcome would be, it's also incredibly interesting that having 15 wins doesn't guarantee you finals.

 

[Hamingja]

Soo glad we did too, getting to see the young fellas like O’Sullivan, Humphries, Dempsey etc step into the side and have important roles has been awesome to watch.

I look at Collingwood and all I see is Naicos, literally who is the other young guys who are integral to their side? Bobby Hill and Beau McReery who potentially both want out?
It’s scary how far they’ve gone leaning into the older blokes thing, we did it with an eye on a list turnover….they just doubled down with Schultz and Houston and Perryman.

They were unlucky with Murphy having to retire due to concussion but they knew that early last year. If topping up is going to be your thing, and they are so reliant on a 35 year old Howe, why the hell didn't they have a crack at Barrass or Battle last year instead of more flankers.

When we have traded 1st round picks it is has been for gun mids or gun forwards. Everything else has been done on the cheap. Our flankers are basically all from the bargain bin. Zuthrie (rookie), O'Connor (cat B rookie), Humphries (pick 63), Mullin (cat B rookie), Dempsey (rookie), Miers (pick 57), Close (rookie), Stengle (delisted free agent), Mannagh (freebie from Dodoro), Martin (delisted free agent)

A lot of them aren't superstars but it shows you can find AFL level flankers late in the draft so why would you use 1st round picks or inflated free agent salaries to get them when every team has more pressing structural needs.

That is what doesn't make sense about Collingwood's strategy to me.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Their VFL team is pretty strong. This means they have the depth building at that level.
It's not always a viable factor to success but it's certainly a contributing one.

The one area they have been susceptible is in the key defender position. I'm actually surprised they were able to win the flag a few years ago with only Moore as the legitimatize A grade tall. They've bucked the trend again this season so they would be in need of a quality young defender at seasons end.

Full ground pressure and system is your answer. If both aren't functioning the way it needs to you get results like Thursday night. Credit goes to the Coach for that but it's also he's job to get the guys refocused again on the 2 points I mentioned leading into the finals. I think they will look to make a statement next week now that the backs are against the wall and they are playing a juggernaut ATM in Adelaide.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

They certainly need a better defender to pair with Moore. He's struggling very badly.

Then there's the KPF situation. If Mihocek books it end of the year, they're relying on McStay as their main KPF, unless they Bring a young Howes in. That issue could be solved if they bring in King end of next year via FA.

If all these supposedly disgruntled players move on then they'll have some money to play with but there's not much out there on the market this year.

Polar opposite to us. They would be love a bloke like Calsher Dear in their side

 

[demondavey]

I thought it impossible a few weeks back but they are in real danger of missing top 4. Lose to the Crows and they will struggle even if they do walk it in in the last game (which they will).

I don’t think they’ll miss the 4 if they win one of the last two. They might lose to Adelaide but they bury us.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Are the Pies imploding? Plenty of reports that there are some disgruntled players who feel they aren't being fairly compensated while the Pies splash cash on B graders like Perryman and Silvagni.

View attachment 2389394

McCreery liking this hit piece on the Pies list management.

And yet my Pies Silvagni pursuit thread was sent to the bay!

 

[Chaisa]

The one thing I will say about Collingwood is that they tend to grow big time legs in finals. Consider:

2002 - finish 4th with a 13-9 record, lose a bunch of games late in the year. Nearly manage to pinch the flag, and if it wasn't for Brisbane they would've
2007 - finish 6th with a 13-9 record. Make a Prelim and nearly beat one of the greatest teams of all-time
2008 - win an away quarter-final despite poor form and were competitive the week after
2018 - only beat one Top 8 team during the H&A season. Roll the best team all year in a Prelim and nearly win the Granny
2020 - fall over the line to make finals but win an away quarter-final against a much better team
2023 - lose three of the last five in the H&A season, still win the flag

Now obviously some of those are stretching it a bit, but that is a lot of times where they pull rabbits out of the hat in a finals series. Most clubs do not seem to be able to do that.

Think next week will tell us a lot about them. That's exactly the sort of game that in the 21st Century they find a way to win so won't be surprised if it happens again.

 

[Walshawk]

Reckon they are cooked. They might win a final, but are no flag threat. We will look back in 12 months and realise that July 2025 was when they fell off the cliff. It will be a hard, hard fall with such an old list. A very long rebuild. Not sure McFly is the man for that job. He will explode.

 

[PerthBoy86]

What we did that Collingwood hasn’t is when we were winning the Premiership we drafted a bunch of players and traded for young blokes and got games into them right away.

That 2022 Premiership side has almost had half the list flipped over in 3 years.
The guys who outside of Jez who contribute most are Bailey Smith, Max Holmes, Gryan Miers, Zach Guthrie, Ollie Dempsey, Tom Atkins, Shannon Neale, Shaun Mannagh, Lawson Humphries, Brad Close, Tyson Stengle, Sam DeKoning etc.

Very different from 2022 side where we relied on Mark Blicavs, Cam Guthrie, Patty Dangerfield, Tom Stewart, Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins, Zach Tuohy etc to win us games.
Pies on the other hand just kept bringing in older blokes without stocking up the youth.

I remember the talk the Cats were too old, falling off a cliff. I may have participated in a bit of that.

Annoyingly we may have been proven wrong. But not at all unexpectedly given the advantages they receive.

 

[PerthBoy86]

The one thing I will say about Collingwood is that they tend to grow big time legs in finals. Consider:

2002 - finish 4th with a 13-9 record, lose a bunch of games late in the year. Nearly manage to pinch the flag, and if it wasn't for Brisbane they would've
2007 - finish 6th with a 13-9 record. Make a Prelim and nearly beat one of the greatest teams of all-time
2008 - win an away quarter-final despite poor form and were competitive the week after
2018 - only beat one Top 8 team during the H&A season. Roll the best team all year in a Prelim and nearly win the Granny
2020 - fall over the line to make finals but win an away quarter-final against a much better team
2023 - lose three of the last five in the H&A season, still win the flag

Now obviously some of those are stretching it a bit, but that is a lot of times where they pull rabbits out of the hat in a finals series. Most clubs do not seem to be able to do that.

Think next week will tell us a lot about them. That's exactly the sort of game that in the 21st Century they find a way to win so won't be surprised if it happens again.

Finals except grand finals, that is.

 

[timokane]

Beat the crows and top 4 is secured for the Pies they can still make top 4 even if they lose to crows but must must beat dees round 24 tho.

 

[demondavey]

Collingwood are fine. Likely to play in a GF this year.

 

[deck]

Full ground pressure and system is your answer. If both aren't functioning the way it needs to you get results like Thursday night.

We have over compensated on the defence to cover the loss of Howe and Frampton. A bit of panic set in once the Hawks got on top in the back half that opened up the top of the 50 for the Hawks. Then as the game slipped away too much risk taking with low percentage kicks when it wasn't quite time to be taking those risks.

All this has a flow on effect up the ground and outside of Thursday night we didn't give up big scores over the last few weeks. We just haven't been able to score ourselves being the biggest issue.

That being said doesn't mean getting players back will solve the problem all of a sudden. When the players lose confidence in the system like they have it isn't quite as easy to get it back.

 

[Rod Stroker]

 

[Freomaniac]

They look like Sydney of last year, so many clubs fall into the trap of peaking too early.

Or dockers of 2015 or Cats of 2019 or demons of 2022.

All those 3 sides have a few things in common.

All 3 sides started well in the 1st half of the season.

All 3 sides struggled in the 2nd half of the season.

All 3 sides fell short of the flag in their respective seasons.

 

[Freomaniac]

View attachment 2394579

That's an interesting photo

 

[rapidfire7]

It's a little weird how more than a few people are continuing to reply to this old thread of mine about Collingwood's hopes in 2023, as if it is about Collingwood's hopes in 2025 ..

Flattering, but this thread should have died a long time ago.

 

[Fadge]

It's a little weird how more than a few people are continuing to reply to this old thread of mine about Collingwood's hopes in 2023, as if it is about Collingwood's hopes in 2025 ..

Flattering, but this thread should have died a long time ago.

If the thread goes on for long enough, there's bound to be a year when Collingwood start strong, but DON'T win the premiership...

 

[Fadge]

Or dockers of 2015 or Cats of 2019 or demons of 2022.

All those 3 sides have a few things in common.

All 3 sides started well in the 1st half of the season.

All 3 sides struggled in the 2nd half of the season.

All 3 sides fell short of the flag in their respective seasons.

Or....

Collingwood in 2023.

 

[Cyclops]

That's an interesting photo

Same energy

 

[Freomaniac]

West Coast's decline will forever be looked at as a blueprint into how one can sabotage it's own club.
Collingwood aren't in that scenario and it won't come to it either.
Some of those ludicrous contracts handed out to players who were in their late 20's was telling.

Factor in the impact of COVID-19 which hit West Coast harder than anyone else, it was a perfect storm.

Tassie are still a watch at this stage.
Nothing set in concrete as of yet.

I wouldn't say West coast eagles decline is a blue print on how to sabotage a club.

They didn't have one top 10 pick from 2013 to 2021. Put it this way, eagles made finals each year from 2015 to 2020. Made grand finals in 2015 and 2018.

Both years they missed out of finals was 2014 and 2021 in which both years they got 9th. So 9th spot usually secured pick 10 on most years but were pushed back due to various reasons such as free agent comp picks, priority picks, Next generation academy picks and father son picks.

I could add 2013. Finished bottom 6 in 2013. Traded pick 6 and 42 to Collingwood for picks 11, 31 and 49. That pick 11 was Dom Sheed.

Not to say Collingwoods situation isn't unique or ordinary.

I assumed that they drafted well between 2014 to 2017 as they didn't make finals for 4 years in a row before making that grand final in 2018

 

[Freomaniac]

Or....

Collingwood in 2023.

Collingwood won the flag in 2023. Freo in 2015, Geelong in 2019 and demons of 2022 didn't

 

[Fadge]

Collingwood won the flag in 2023. Freo in 2015, Geelong in 2019 and demons of 2022 didn't

Oh.

I thought you were talking about teams that seemed to splutter late in the season?

Sorry, my bad.