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Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

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As noted a few posts back, here's the players on Collingwood's list who are 29 and over:

Scott Pendlebury
Jeremy Howe
Steele Sidebottom
Mason Cox
Jamie Elliott
Brody Mihocek
Tom Mitchell
Will Hoskin-Elliott
Jack Crisp
Tim Membrey
Daniel McStay
Darcy Cameron
Darcy Moore
Jordan De Goey
Oleg Markov
Brayden Maynard

On top of that list above, here's the 28 and 27 year olds on Collingwood's list:

Billy Frampton
Dan Houston
Lachie Sullivan
Ash Johnson
Lachlan Schultz
Patrick Lipinski

That's another 6.

So all up, 22 players on Collingwood's list are 27 or over.

And 16 of them are over 29.

Let's say on average four of those over 29s retire each season and are replaced with draft picks.

Well, that's four drafts to clear out the current over 29s, by which time the players in that 27 and 28 age bracket will be thinking of hanging up the boots.

Through compromised drafts where Tasmania is coming in.

And all of the above is assuming Collingwood doesn't do anything silly like trade in another over 27 year old player like May from Melbourne in a bid to refresh the list.

Melbourne has younger players like Langford, Windsor, Tholstrup, Sparrow, Pickett, Rivers.

Collingwood has Quaynor, Hill, the Daicos brothers, and ..?

I don't envy Collingwood's list position right now.
 
WesternSydneyHawk said:
As noted a few posts back, here's the players on Collingwood's list who are 29 and over:

Scott Pendlebury
Jeremy Howe
Steele Sidebottom
Mason Cox
Jamie Elliott
Brody Mihocek
Tom Mitchell
Will Hoskin-Elliott
Jack Crisp
Tim Membrey
Daniel McStay
Darcy Cameron
Darcy Moore
Jordan De Goey
Oleg Markov
Brayden Maynard

On top of that list above, here's the 28 and 27 year olds on Collingwood's list:

Billy Frampton
Dan Houston
Lachie Sullivan
Ash Johnson
Lachlan Schultz
Patrick Lipinski

That's another 6.

So all up, 22 players on Collingwood's list are 27 or over.

And 16 of them are over 29.

Let's say on average four of those over 29s retire each season and are replaced with draft picks.

Well, that's four drafts to clear out the current over 29s, by which time the players in that 27 and 28 age bracket will be thinking of hanging up the boots.

Through compromised drafts where Tasmania is coming in.

And all of the above is assuming Collingwood doesn't do anything silly like trade in another over 27 year old player like May from Melbourne in a bid to refresh the list.

Melbourne has younger players like Langford, Windsor, Tholstrup, Sparrow, Pickett, Rivers.

Collingwood has Quaynor, Hill, the Daicos brothers, and ..?

I don't envy Collingwood's list position right now.
Click to expand...
Id rather have west coasts list than Collingwood.
I've tried my best to warn my Collingwood brothers and sisters that the cliff was coming, to prepare them for the upcoming loss and disappointment. Alas they did not want to listen and now they are trying to cope with a waated season and years in the wilderness.
This is not a time for gloating or "i told you sos" but a time to extend a hand, a hug or just a shoulder to cry on for our Collingwood brethren.
Please keep them in your thoughts and prayers.
 

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SA HAWK said:
3-5 record over the last 8 games signs were there.

Fell off the cliff 2 months ago.

Saw the same with Hawthorn in 2016.
Click to expand...
Yep their recent form line has been horrendous.

They’ve again gone all in for 2026 re-signing their older players. If they bring in May it’s because Fly believes this group can have one final tilt. I’m not convinced.

Expect a slew of retirements at the end of next year as their form continues to drop.
 
dean33 said:
Id rather have west coasts list than Collingwood.
I've tried my best to warn my Collingwood brothers and sisters that the cliff was coming, to prepare them for the upcoming loss and disappointment. Alas they did not want to listen and now they are trying to cope with a waated season and years in the wilderness.
This is not a time for gloating or "i told you sos" but a time to extend a hand, a hug or just a shoulder to cry on for our Collingwood brethren.
Please keep them in your thoughts and prayers.
Click to expand...
F$&kem
 
I hate Collingwood more than I hate Hitler, but let’s be real, these guys always find a way to contend.

Their smug prick of a coach is very good at his job they’ll be competitive again in 2026. I expect a dip but it won’t be as dramatic as people think. They also have arguably the best player in the competition.
 
There is no wat they can run it back with this list. There’s a chance they miss Hill Elliott and Mihocek. I guess if they had gone in to win this year it was worth it and they took the risk. But their form over past 2 months has been ordinary and I can’t see any way they improve their list for next season.
Daicos is a superstar. But who is going along with him? The list is in really bad shape.
 
This is something that hasn't been talked about enough:

Collingwood Form During 2025 Season

R1 to R18: 14 wins, 2 losses

R19 to PF: 3 wins, 6 losses

They peaked too early and/or they were front runners for most of the season but when other teams started playing better, they were found out. Collingwood in my mind were nothing more than a "good team" but nothing truly special either. Their form in the back-end of the season was garbage - in the end they were found out.
 
CakeEater said:
As i said earlier in this thread Freo 2015 vibes all over them
Click to expand...
But we won a flag to go with it all.

When McCrae took over I thought we were a good 5 years from contending again and most these blokes would be long gone. 2022 was probably the most exciting and enjoyable year of footy I've ever watched as a whole. Even then I thought it was a one off but came back again and won the flag.

Yeah sure we could've taken the flag and sent some veterans on there way on a high. But why would you blow up whats working in the hope your successful in 5 or 6 years. Yeah bringing in Schultz and Houston was a risk to our long term list management. But in the end it gave us another crack at it.

Looks like now we'll move to a more low risk strategy of bringing in low cost draft wise and holding on to those higher picks. Geelong persisted with this strategy for years and it looks to be paying off. It sure beats sitting at the bottom for years.
 

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markm106 said:
I guess if they had gone in to win this year it was worth it and they took the risk.
Click to expand...
It was still worth it regardless. You reckon we should've packed up shop after winning a flag and started all again? Absolute madness. End up being a club that is always in a rebuild playing it safe with draft picks.
 
I was very surprised that all of Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Howe signed before their season was done - I thought they needed for at least one if not two of these players to retire.

After our 2022 flag we phased older premiership players like Duncan, Guthrie (due to injury), Rohan and Bews out of the side - all finishing their careers in the VFL (assuming Bews isn’t offered a contract for next year). In addition to Selwood, Hawkins and Tuohy retiring on their own terms and not playing on a season too long.

Collingwood only seemed to do this with WHE, and even recalled Cox for finals when his career looked done.

Does Fly have the nerve to push a Crisp, Howe or even Sidebottom into the VFL next year? I am not sure.

They can’t afford to lose Elliott who was their best player across both finals, but I think they have to let Mihocek go.
 
Collingwood heavy training loads cost them in the end. Have only won 3 from their last 9 games. Looks like they will have to go to the draft.
 
deck said:
But we won a flag to go with it all.

When McCrae took over I thought we were a good 5 years from contending again and most these blokes would be long gone. 2022 was probably the most exciting and enjoyable year of footy I've ever watched as a whole. Even then I thought it was a one off but came back again and won the flag.

Yeah sure we could've taken the flag and sent some veterans on there way on a high. But why would you blow up whats working in the hope your successful in 5 or 6 years. Yeah bringing in Schultz and Houston was a risk to our long term list management. But in the end it gave us another crack at it.

Looks like now we'll move to a more low risk strategy of bringing in low cost draft wise and holding on to those higher picks. Geelong persisted with this strategy for years and it looks to be paying off. It sure beats sitting at the bottom for years.
Click to expand...
I guess you had to have another crack. Geelong have also had great success bringing in elite talent from other clubs. Danger Cameron and Smith. And not mortgaging their future in doing so. Although they did pay a bit for Cameron. But gave up less for Smith than you did Schultz.
They have also had success with draft particularly some mid-later picks.
Not many clubs can follow the Geelong strategy without bottoming out. It’s amazing they’ve been able to do it for so long.
 
Gotta give the Pies credit for turning Dan Houston into a poor man's Greg Tivendale
 

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markm106 said:
Danger Cameron and Smith. And not mortgaging their future in doing so. Although they did pay a bit for Cameron.
Click to expand...

We only gave up one of our own first rounders for Cameron - the other two first rounders came courtesy of trading Kelly to WCE 12 months earlier. A fantastic bit of trading in hindsight.
 
fpm84 said:
We only gave up one of our own first rounders for Cameron - the other two first rounders came courtesy of trading Kelly to WCE 12 months earlier. A fantastic bit of trading in hindsight.
Click to expand...
Yeah the trade was good. But you gave up a bit. As you lost Kelly who at the time was very good. Not saying you mortgaged your future. But paid up.
 
Pies threw all their eggs into the one basket in an attemp to snag this year's flag, stick a fork in them, they are done now, all geriatrics noew, except for daicos kids, they have nothing going forward. Sold the farm to get Housten, who spudded it up big time. Happy days ahead folks. 😁
 

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Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

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