Comparing club lists by draft points values

[The J Dog]

The charts below compare each club based on the collective draft points value of its playing list at the start of each season. Only players still on the list for that year are counted to the total. For example, Brett Deledio counts on Richmond's totals for 2013-2016 and GWS for 2017. Richard Tambling counts on Adelaide's list in 2013, but not for any of the following years since being delisted.

Chart 1 – Shows how much draft assistance GWS has received – in 2017 they are still 73 per cent above average and 53 per cent above the Gold Coast.

Chart 2 – Shows a five year trend. GWS and Gold Coast now trending down while reducing their playing lists and trading former high picks to other clubs, such as Carlton. Note that in 2015 GWS's total was 87 per cent above average. Other clubs such as Melbourne, Essendon and Collingwood have been building their list with high draft picks. Collingwood have grown their list value by 51 per cent since 2013. Carlton have grown their value by 41 per cent.

Chart 3 – Shows draft point values adjusted based on how many years players have remaining in their career, assuming each player can play up to 15 seasons from the year of draft. GWS are 80 per cent above average and 39 per cent above the Gold Coast. Hawthorn is 46 per cent below average.

Chart 4 – Shows a five year trend in remaining career draft point values. Note the Bulldogs have 16th best draft points total, but tenth best based on remaining career. Hawthorn has the 13th best draft points total, but is 18th based on remaining career. Geelong has also been trending worse over the last five years as its high draft picks have retired.

A shortcoming with this analysis is that it's based on draft value at the time of the draft and rookies have no draft points value. However, the AFL's research using player performance data from 2001 to 2015 found that relative draft position is the best indicator of future individual success. The decision to give the first draft selection 3,000 points, number two 2,517 points etc for trading and father-son/academy selections is based on this historical data.

The Herald-Sun did a similar analysis in late 2015. http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2015-superfooty-assesses-the-points-value-at-every-afl-club/news-story/ff1787c923a7bfd3dff8c7f3678c4d6b. One difference with this analysis is that I've attempted to include a fair value for the draft concessions for GWS and Gold Coast and other clubs vis GWS trade and zone picks that had no draft points value. My main assumptions are Shiel, Jack Martin and O’Meara = 3000pts (i.e. equivalent to first pick), Hogan and Brad Crouch = 2517pts (second pick), Jeremy Cameron = 2234pts (third), Treloar = 1395 pts (tenth), Trent McKenzie = 1025 pts (17th), Matera and Bugg = 912 pts (20th), Dixon, Hombsch and Zac Smith = 629 pts (30th), Rory Thompson, Steven May = 429pts (40th), many others 273pts and below (pick 50 and below).

 

[Ambrosia]

How have you accounted for FA/Trades? For example does Goddard count as pick 1 for Essendon?

 

[Sauras]

What??

 

[RUNVS]

That is a really interesting way of doing it. Certainly shows which clubs should be going well and which clubs have drafted well with not much.

 

[OzJohnnie]

It's extremely clear from this analysis, particularly the last chart, why Hawthorn is going the FA/Trade route to rebuild the team. They are five years away from getting back up the value list on a draft perspective and maybe eight years until those drafts turn into seasoned players. And then maybe good enough to compete. That's a sucker's game from Hawthorn's perspective.

FA/Trade is the only route available to replenish, particularly with the finger on the scales that the AFL gives GWS.

 

[The Swert]

I don't get it. The most successful clubs recently all have low draft value.

So they have all been playing above themselves?
Or their draft value is low due to receiving lower draft picks?

 

[Shane Hird]

 

[Tas]

Spoon alert.

 

[saintscott]

It's just a statistic. Some players were drafted later due to academies or father sons ie heeney, mills, libba, wallis, hunter. Some clubs are better at developing talent from low picks. Low draft numbers doesn't necessarily equate to better players ie carltons list to me still has a long way to go. Interesting info still.

 

[RUNVS]

It's just a statistic. Some players were drafted later due to academies or father sons ie heeney, mills, libba, wallis, hunter. Some clubs are better at developing talent from low picks. Low draft numbers doesn't necessarily equate to better players ie carltons list to me still has a long way to go. Interesting info still.

Mills would count as a pick 3 points wise I imagine.

 

[craffles]

A bunch of charts to tell us the bleedingly obvious

GWS and Gold Coast massive leg ups. Carlton heaps of high draft picks and hawthorn **** all.

 

[demondavey]

Draft is overrated. You should be doing an analysis on club culture

 

[Ricmel]

That is really interesting data. I suspect that if you did this over the past 30 years there would be some correlation between team draft points and success but I am guessing with the amount of work that clubs put into the draft nowadays, that correlation is going to be much more pronounced in the next 30 years.

It would be good to try and overlay an average age line. If the common wisdom is that players peak between 24 and 28 (?), theoretically a team with high draft value and an average age of 26 would be right in the premiership window. I think this data will get stronger in years to come.

 

[RobZombie]

What assumptions go into the career remaining values? I get that, for example Nick Riewoldt has less remaining career value than Jacob Wietering. So it's a good way to add context to the raw draft points value. Do you assume everyone will go to a particular retirement age? Or that they will play the average number of games for their draft position? Or somewhere in between? If Rory Sloane has already played more games than a pick 44 is 'supposed to', how to you assess his remaining value?

 

[Ian Dunross]

Adelaide the clear winner here no?

Remarkable list management and player development

 

[LeverPuller]

The J Dog - this is awesome, very nice!

One query - how are traded players calculated? Do you assume both sides of the deal are even? Thus:

Player + any other picks from player's team = total trade value given up by receiving team

Or is the player regarded at the pick they were drafted with?

 

[LeverPuller]

What assumptions go into the career remaining values? I get that, for example Nick Riewoldt has less remaining career value than Jacob Wietering. So it's a good way to add context to the raw draft points value. Do you assume everyone will go to a particular retirement age? Or that they will play the average number of games for their draft position? Or somewhere in between? If Rory Sloane has already played more games than a pick 44 is 'supposed to', how to you assess his remaining value?

It's assessed by "remaining seasons" where the expectation is that a player plays 15 seasons. I expect NRoo would count for sweet FA on that value.

 

[Capt Hindsight]

Interesting stats.
Continues to highlight how scary GWS are if they keep most of their list together over the next 3-4 years.

 

[The J Dog]

How have you accounted for FA/Trades? For example does Goddard count as pick 1 for Essendon?

Goddard counts for Essendon for 2013-2017 as he last played for St Kilda in 2012.

 

[The J Dog]

A bunch of charts to tell us the bleedingly obvious

GWS and Gold Coast massive leg ups. Carlton heaps of high draft picks and hawthorn **** all.

The GWS leg up is so large it's ridiculous. Maybe Eddie McGuire was right?

 

[The J Dog]

What assumptions go into the career remaining values? I get that, for example Nick Riewoldt has less remaining career value than Jacob Wietering. So it's a good way to add context to the raw draft points value. Do you assume everyone will go to a particular retirement age? Or that they will play the average number of games for their draft position? Or somewhere in between? If Rory Sloane has already played more games than a pick 44 is 'supposed to', how to you assess his remaining value?

In the adjusted charts 3 and 4 I used a blunt instrument. Assumed all players' draft values depreciate in a straight line from year 1 to 15. Riewoldt currently playing his 17th season has zero points value left.

This analysis doesn't account for the true playing value of individuals like Sloane who was undervalued by the draft. However, based on AFL research, in aggregate it should account for the average playing value of all number 44 picks (based on their actual salaries between 2001-15).

 

[The J Dog]

The J Dog - this is awesome, very nice!

One query - how are traded players calculated? Do you assume both sides of the deal are even? Thus:

Player + any other picks from player's team = total trade value given up by receiving team

Or is the player regarded at the pick they were drafted with?

I haven't had to consider trades. I just took the playing lists at the start of each year and added the draft points for each player. So, Brett Deledio still counts for 3000 points, but the points left Richmond's 2016 total and moved to GWS's 2017 figure.

 

[LeverPuller]

I haven't had to consider trades. I just took the playing lists at the start of each year and added the draft points for each player. So, Brett Deledio still counts for 3000 points, but the points left Richmond's 2016 total and moved to GWS's 2017 figure.

Okay. So for example Toumpas is considered a pick 4, which would be a flaw in the system (being a bust etc)

 

[Pessimistic]

They dont sent the brightest kids to the dumbest universities

But the AFL do. How much talent has been wasted?

 

[DanA]

The five-year trend....what's that showing? Not too many players get traded from ages 18-23 so isn't that just going to represent the amount of draft capital received. And if so how is that more useful than say average finishing position.