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List Mgmt. Contracts, trades, draft - 2022 superstar edition

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Link to contract status of all players -

 
This my current take on WC current position.

Either this season is a one off, covid affected drop off, and while you’re at the bottom, it’s best to grab a high end talent while you have the chance, and your actual bottoming might not occur for another three to five years.

Or this is the beginning of WC drop down the ladder, exaggerated this year by covid interruptions, and WC might have a slight bounce back next season, before properly bottoming out in 2024.

If this is the beginning of a bottom out, my belief is it’s still best to grab the best talent available while you are at to top of the draft.


Many posters have tried to point out that Bontempeli or Oliver weren’t the top pick in their drafts, and that splitting pick 1 or 2 gives you more bites at the cherry.

My counter argument is both were pick 4, and it’s very unlikely that a team is going to trade pick 4 and another top 10 pick to move up in this draft.

Aaand (I love long “ands”) if you do trade back, you run the risk of a team in front of you picking the player you wanted, and that team walking away with the next Bontempeli or Oliver.

From memory, the last team to trade up for a top 2 pick was GWS. They actually were the team involved in trading up the last two times, (Tim Taranto and Lachlan Ash) though the second time they traded up to pick 4.

Both times they were trading up because they had academy prospects to match bids on. They did not give up two top 10 picks in the same draft in either trade, and they got back multiple late picks for points in both trades.
good stuff. very high picks are exponentially better than pics around 10. Assuming we identify tallent well.
 
This my current take on WC current position.

Either this season is a one off, covid affected drop off, and while you’re at the bottom, it’s best to grab a high end talent while you have the chance, and your actual bottoming might not occur for another three to five years.

Or this is the beginning of WC drop down the ladder, exaggerated this year by covid interruptions, and WC might have a slight bounce back next season, before properly bottoming out in 2024.

If this is the beginning of a bottom out, my belief is it’s still best to grab the best talent available while you are at to top of the draft.


Many posters have tried to point out that Bontempeli or Oliver weren’t the top pick in their drafts, and that splitting pick 1 or 2 gives you more bites at the cherry.

My counter argument is both were pick 4, and it’s very unlikely that a team is going to trade pick 4 and another top 10 pick to move up in this draft.

Aaand (I love long “ands”) if you do trade back, you run the risk of a team in front of you picking the player you wanted, and that team walking away with the next Bontempeli or Oliver.

From memory, the last team to trade up for a top 2 pick was GWS. They actually were the team involved in trading up the last two times, (Tim Taranto and Lachlan Ash) though the second time they traded up to pick 4.

Both times they were trading up because they had academy prospects to match bids on. They did not give up two top 10 picks in the same draft in either trade, and they got back multiple late picks for points in both trades.
I agree with a lot of what you're saying but we've been trending downward for a while with an out of date gameplan exacerbating the issue. This season, I'm fine with writing it off to COVID as it doesn't appear West Coast managed it well and accordingly, fitness levels suffered (that or STC & nutrition needs to be booted) however, the grit and determination shown by top-up players should give us all cause for concern. A lot has been said elsewhere about our veterans so there's no need to repeat it but I don't believe they'll fetch much on the trade market thus my inclination toward using a high pick (or picks) to accumulate more as Oscar Allen is the only young player on our list I am genuinely enthused about, the rest are much of a muchness.
 
I believe you need to balance who you let go and who you keep.

I would love to see a list of your best 22 players in the 26 to 30 age group, and those just outside the best 22. Say 23rd to 30th on list depth.

You’re going to need those guys to bring through your next flag potential flag side.
I have done it from the cut off age for players turning 29 as we have a lot turning 30 this year and they include McGovern, Gaff, Darling and Cripps as I cannot see any of them being around for our next flag

1652237210744.png

I have then done another line up - best line for those turning 22 this year and younger

1652237255840.png
 

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I have done it from the cut off age for players turning 29 as we have a lot turning 30 this year and they include McGovern, Gaff, Darling and Cripps as I cannot see any of them being around for our next flag

View attachment 1397549

I have then done another line up - best line for those turning 22 this year and younger

View attachment 1397551
Nice work. I can see us being very active in the free agency / trade period in the next few years because I don’t know how we are going to spend 95% of our cap on that lot.
 
The 199cm prospect missed Rounds 1 and 3 of the SANFL league season due to health and safety protocols, booting two goals from nine disposals and five marks against Central District in between. He then didn’t play in Round 4 against Norwood as he was a travelling emergency, returned in Round 5 to finish goalless from two disposals then was played in the Reserves last weekend where he had 0.1 from nine disposals.

However club recruiters are wary that Lemmey’s 2022 campaign to date has been severely interrupted, with multiple protocols-related absences also sidelining him from training.

Has pie man written all over it.
 

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Always try and remember the Vic Bias in scouting. To me there are 5 genuine elite talents in this draft and Wardlaw and Tsatas are a step below that.

SA are so blessed for talls this year that even the champs might not be much of an insight outside of Scully playing seniors or dominating there. There's also only so many goals a side is going to kick. Also Lemmey is a lead up CHF so I wouldn't expect him to be kicking huge numbers of goals. If he plays CHF at the champs and kicks 10 goals from the primary 4 games with one elite performance in there or a couple of performances with 10 marks and a couple of goals he is going to go very high.

On the same token if they play Scully at FF (it's where he should be played) and he kicks 15+ in the champs or does well moving up a tier then he's a level above Tsatas and Wardlaw as well imo.

The big thing for almost all players IMO is how they play after the champs. I always rate the guys who come back from the champs and then take what they've learnt playing against the elite of their age bracket and then step it up a notch.

I'd really love for Broadbent to continue to be seen as a bit of a slider as it makes him more likely at our second pick. Doesn't have a dominant athletic profile but very high footy IQ and great skills for a Ruck. He might not be a genuine top 2 ruck in the league ever but if he's consistently after 3-4 years of development in that 3-5 in the league bracket with good skills and good tapwork he is worth a first round pick every day of the week. He's also a genuinely good tap ruckman, has good positioning and with tutelage under Nicnat is a future top 10 player on the list. You'd take that with a pick 20 every day of the week.

North genuinely need tall talent all over the ground so outside of bidding for Ashcroft I really can't see them taking a small with their first. GC and GWS will be well aware of the go home factor and to me will likely look outside of Vic Metro as well.

Sheezel is also a Vic metro boy so will be interesting to see where he lands. But if he starts putting up 25+ disposal games to go with his goals then he moves into that Tsatas, Wardlaw group. I see him as having more midfield potential than Rachele and his goal output is impressive.

How the top 10-15 pans out imo will very likely depend on how the Victorian talls play in the champs. There is going to be a couple of very good tall prospects who drop a bit this year as the mids always seem to rise as the year goes on. AFL recruiters also always seem to have a love affair with a super talented tall as well even if they aren't performing consistently. Keeler could be the one who rises. The talls in this draft are widely considered by most as being a Tier above those in last years draft.

I said it last year and I'll say it again, There outside of Daicos and Horne-Francis a lot more of that higher end talent in this pool than last year but I don't see the draft running as deep. Past pick 20 there are going to be major deficiencies in players drafted imo.

It's why particularly as it drops a bit lower I'm very happy to trade out Ports second rounder for a top rated guy from 2-3 years ago who is being held out by very good players in their preferred position.

I also think we have absolutely nailed last years draft and want to sincerely apologise to Jack Williams. I thought he was going to be a tweener ruck but with further growth he is looking more and more like a key forward as every week goes by. I see Hough being a genuine A grade mid in the future too. I just hope he doesn't get his body too beaten up and have it derail his career. But Clark, Naish, Bazzo to me are all projecting as at worst B grade players who can provide a lot to the club in the next few years.

Florenca could be a very good pickup mid season but I would prefer having two picks in the mid year draft and him being the second. You would think Joyce is a primary candidate for delisting.

Even if it means delisting a guy like west who whilst he tries his guts out to me is never going to be AFL quality due to his skills. I would persist with Jones but to me he's never going to be even a B grade mid or HFF so would really like to see his accountability and run and carry from HB tried further throughout the season.

I also see it very hard for us to trade out anyone this year and receive any real value for them. The guys who are in contract have to agree to a trade and guys with 2 years left to go on their contract who are from wa like Rotham and Waterman aren't going anywhere.

If we are to keep at least 2 of Strnadica, Naish and Dixon as well as say at least 1 of 2 mid year draft picks on the list next year for us to fulfill even say our top 3/4 picks or top 3 + a player we are going to need to move on a minimum 10 players.
 
hey briztoon
If West Coast hold pick 1, I am sure there can be a suitable price negotiated for the sale of the Lion's round 1 pick that includes a discount for agreeing not to call out Ashcroft at pick 1. There is nearly a 400 points differential between being called out at 1 (20% discount in 2,400) v 2 (20% discount in 2,014).

Assuming Lions make minimum Preliminary Final, you will have pick 15 (points equivalent of 1,112)

Our current picks are 1, 19, 26 and 37. Pick 26 is worth 729 points and 37 is worth 483 for a total of 1,212. Add in the saving of not bidding at Pick 1 or 386, we could do a suitable deal. We or you could happily get a points premium with pick 26 and to a lesser extent with 37. I am sure the Suns, Pies or Cats sitting with loads of picks in the 40's and 50's would be willing buyers of an upgrade to 26.

Fair and legal? I think so. Is it what the AFL intended. I don't care. You know from how we went with Sydney and hid their pick, we can be trusted at the draft table.
 
Anyone know when the deadline for F/S nom is?

Our would our club be meeting with him and telling that every decent Eagles player wins a flag? If Brisbane don't win one in the first couple of seasons (assuming he can get a game), it's a long wait.
 
hey briztoon
If West Coast hold pick 1, I am sure there can be a suitable price negotiated for the sale of the Lion's round 1 pick that includes a discount for agreeing not to call out Ashcroft at pick 1. There is nearly a 400 points differential between being called out at 1 (20% discount in 2,400) v 2 (20% discount in 2,014).

Assuming Lions make minimum Preliminary Final, you will have pick 15 (points equivalent of 1,112)

Our current picks are 1, 19, 26 and 37. Pick 26 is worth 729 points and 37 is worth 483 for a total of 1,212. Add in the saving of not bidding at Pick 1 or 386, we could do a suitable deal. We or you could happily get a points premium with pick 26 and to a lesser extent with 37. I am sure the Suns, Pies or Cats sitting with loads of picks in the 40's and 50's would be willing buyers of an upgrade to 26.

Fair and legal? I think so. Is it what the AFL intended. I don't care. You know from how we went with Sydney and hid their pick, we can be trusted at the draft table.
So you're saying:

We give Lions 26 and 37 and assuming we finish last and Ashcroft nominates, we agree to not call out his name
Lions give us pick 15 (or whatever it ends up as)
 

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Always try and remember the Vic Bias in scouting. To me there are 5 genuine elite talents in this draft and Wardlaw and Tsatas are a step below that.

SA are so blessed for talls this year that even the champs might not be much of an insight outside of Scully playing seniors or dominating there. There's also only so many goals a side is going to kick. Also Lemmey is a lead up CHF so I wouldn't expect him to be kicking huge numbers of goals. If he plays CHF at the champs and kicks 10 goals from the primary 4 games with one elite performance in there or a couple of performances with 10 marks and a couple of goals he is going to go very high.

On the same token if they play Scully at FF (it's where he should be played) and he kicks 15+ in the champs or does well moving up a tier then he's a level above Tsatas and Wardlaw as well imo.

The big thing for almost all players IMO is how they play after the champs. I always rate the guys who come back from the champs and then take what they've learnt playing against the elite of their age bracket and then step it up a notch.

I'd really love for Broadbent to continue to be seen as a bit of a slider as it makes him more likely at our second pick. Doesn't have a dominant athletic profile but very high footy IQ and great skills for a Ruck. He might not be a genuine top 2 ruck in the league ever but if he's consistently after 3-4 years of development in that 3-5 in the league bracket with good skills and good tapwork he is worth a first round pick every day of the week. He's also a genuinely good tap ruckman, has good positioning and with tutelage under Nicnat is a future top 10 player on the list. You'd take that with a pick 20 every day of the week.

North genuinely need tall talent all over the ground so outside of bidding for Ashcroft I really can't see them taking a small with their first. GC and GWS will be well aware of the go home factor and to me will likely look outside of Vic Metro as well.

Sheezel is also a Vic metro boy so will be interesting to see where he lands. But if he starts putting up 25+ disposal games to go with his goals then he moves into that Tsatas, Wardlaw group. I see him as having more midfield potential than Rachele and his goal output is impressive.

How the top 10-15 pans out imo will very likely depend on how the Victorian talls play in the champs. There is going to be a couple of very good tall prospects who drop a bit this year as the mids always seem to rise as the year goes on. AFL recruiters also always seem to have a love affair with a super talented tall as well even if they aren't performing consistently. Keeler could be the one who rises. The talls in this draft are widely considered by most as being a Tier above those in last years draft.

I said it last year and I'll say it again, There outside of Daicos and Horne-Francis a lot more of that higher end talent in this pool than last year but I don't see the draft running as deep. Past pick 20 there are going to be major deficiencies in players drafted imo.

It's why particularly as it drops a bit lower I'm very happy to trade out Ports second rounder for a top rated guy from 2-3 years ago who is being held out by very good players in their preferred position.

I also think we have absolutely nailed last years draft and want to sincerely apologise to Jack Williams. I thought he was going to be a tweener ruck but with further growth he is looking more and more like a key forward as every week goes by. I see Hough being a genuine A grade mid in the future too. I just hope he doesn't get his body too beaten up and have it derail his career. But Clark, Naish, Bazzo to me are all projecting as at worst B grade players who can provide a lot to the club in the next few years.

Florenca could be a very good pickup mid season but I would prefer having two picks in the mid year draft and him being the second. You would think Joyce is a primary candidate for delisting.

Even if it means delisting a guy like west who whilst he tries his guts out to me is never going to be AFL quality due to his skills. I would persist with Jones but to me he's never going to be even a B grade mid or HFF so would really like to see his accountability and run and carry from HB tried further throughout the season.

I also see it very hard for us to trade out anyone this year and receive any real value for them. The guys who are in contract have to agree to a trade and guys with 2 years left to go on their contract who are from wa like Rotham and Waterman aren't going anywhere.

If we are to keep at least 2 of Strnadica, Naish and Dixon as well as say at least 1 of 2 mid year draft picks on the list next year for us to fulfill even say our top 3/4 picks or top 3 + a player we are going to need to move on a minimum 10 players.
Wardlaw and Tsatas not top 5? Interesting.

I went to one of their games, and one thing that the crappy streams don't convey well is their size and power.
Wardlaw has real power and explosive athleticism, and Tsatas is deceptively big and also very dynamic. They obviously have great football ability too, so I'm surprised you have them behind 5 others.
 
Based purely on the article's write up I'll take Tsatas thanks.

Fast and outside, good kick in general play but not a good kick at speed which is his biggest strength. I think he'll be found out at the top tier and is at best in the 6-10 bracket of the draft.

If Wardlaw was a few cm taller and was getting 5 more disposals a game then yes he would be right there with Ashcroft at the top of the draft however as far as im concerned a 20 disposal player at juniors even if 50% are contested and with great athleticism isn't a number 1 pick or talent. Lets see what happens at the champs when he's playing against guys who have similar levels of size and strength. If he continues to improve and puts up big numbers there, then sure he is in that conversation.

Tsatas reminds me of Polec. Would anyone like to draft Jared Polec at pick 1?
 
Wardlaw and Tsatas not top 5? Interesting.

I went to one of their games, and one thing that the crappy streams don't convey well is their size and power.
Wardlaw has real power and explosive athleticism, and Tsatas is deceptively big and also very dynamic. They obviously have great football ability too, so I'm surprised you have them behind 5 others.

I'm not saying they won't be drafted top 5 but I don't have them in the top 5 talents.
 
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