Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 3.

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Holden Hillbilly

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Flights to and from India into Australia have now been suspended, Scott Morrison has announced, amid increasing concerns over the nation’s escalating COVID-19 situation.

"Today we agreed, in addition to the measures that I announced after the last National Cabinet meeting, to pause direct passenger flights between India and Australia until the 15th of May," the Prime Minister told reporters.

Eight DFAT flights that were planned to return from India in May have now been paused. Passengers on all future flights will require a negative PCR tests and a negative Rapid Antigen Test prior to departure.
 

raptalia

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i heard the full interview with Nicola Spurrier on the ABC this morning. It was very informative. Some key points-

  • A Malaysian Airlines flight arrived in Adelaide on Saturday and at least 12 people on that flight tested positive. Spurrier would not be drawn as to whether that flight was from India but no prizes for guessing where it was from.
  • As of this morning there were 32 active cases in SA. 30 of those were in Tom's Court Hotel and 2 in the RAH.
  • Toms Court only had room for 12 more cases.
  • Cases were moved around in Tom's Court to achieve safe spacing. The facility had CCTV on all floors and state of the art air conditioning.
  • Extra Police and highly trained medical staff had been diverted to Tom's Court.
  • The SA Government had requested a reduction in flights from India into SA and a 3 day pause has been approved. See link below.

When pressed on the vaccination rate in SA and the Opposition claim that SA had 30,000 doses in storage Spurrier would not comment. She deflected the flak by telling us how great it was that the Wayville mass vaccination hub was opening later this week.


Morrison has since announced that all flights to Australia will be paused until at least May15th.

 
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raptalia

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Australians are getting vaccinated in China. But will their jabs be recognised here or will they have to get a second round of shots?

Some the points Hannah (surname withheld) makes deserve an answer,

"There's a strong probability I'm going to end up with double vaccines. And that I would seek health professional advice on."
So why did you go and get vaccinated with an unapproved vaccine with an efficacy rate of 50% if you are planning to return to Australia? All you had to do is get a PCR test and test negative within 72 hours of departure, be prepared for two weeks in quarantine then get vaccinated in Australia with an approved vaccine if you choose. You do not appear to have done much research.

"The fact that Australia might not recognise the Sinovac vaccine, and you know, still requires quarantine. I mean, the politics around this are just getting out of control,"
Stiff sh*t Hannah you chose to go to China and in Australia we are keen, and in fact entitled to maintain a COVID free society. You want to return to Australia, that is your right but Australians also have the right to maintain a COVID free society. There are clear reasons why Sinovac has not been approved. The Chinese did not test it thoroughly or openly enough for approval in the UK, US or in Australia and when comprehensive tests were performed in Brazil the Sinovac vaccine was found to have an efficacy rate of only 50.38% compared to the 80+% of other vaccines. The Auistralian Government must not be in the business of allowing people vaccinated with a dodgy vaccine to avoid quarantine. Even the Chinese have started to question the effectiveness of their local vaccines.

Australians living and working abroad and trying to get home have my sympathy as it must be a living hell trying to get out of some pox ridden countries and back to the safety of Australia however they should not complain too loudly as the safety first attitude of the Australian Government is the very reason their homeland is suddenly so attractive.



 
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raptalia

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Another 362,000 cases in India overnight. The BBC carried a story that the death rate in India has been seriously understated as only people who are registered with hospitals are counted in the official figures. Due to overcrowding of hospital wards many people are able to gain admission and therefore die at home, in cars or on the street. It is estimated that the death rate is likely to be double that of the official figures. Very sad.

Meanwhile in Spain they are rejoicing as after a trial indoor concert attended by 5,000 people with only six patrons testing positive for COVID. Of those six only one was reported as contagious. That does not sound like much but if you do the sums it isn't as safe as it sounds. On Sunday 80,000 people attended the Collingwood v Essendon game at the MCG. If one in a thousand had tested positive after the game it would have been 80 cases with 13 contagious which would have meant another lockdown for Melbourne and all sorts of travel restrictions around Australia. Another complication is the Spanish used antigen tests in the pre concert testing which while quicker is not as accurate as PCR testing and has shown a high level of false negatives.

On the face of these apparently pleasing results the Spaniards will probably relax restrictions on public events and wonder why they end up back where they were in January when they had 35,000 cases per day. The thinking in Europe is distinctly different from that of Australia. In Europe they are resigned to containing the virus while in Australia we strive to eliminate it and the results show.

 
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PAFC66

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As at 27 Apr 2021

So far, 1,969,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been delivered across Australia.
Change from previous day: 32,000
The olympians will be vaccinated before the disability sector has barely started and they'll also get a choice of which vaccine.

The Olympics are not even guaranteed to go ahead.

This country is a joke
 
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OneGreatClub

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Another 362,000 cases in India overnight. The BBC carried a story that the death rate in India has been seriously understated as only people who are registered with hospitals are counted in the official figures. Due to overcrowding of hospital wards many people are able to gain admission and therefore die at home, in cars or on the street. It is estimated that the death rate is likely to be double that of the official figures. Very sad.

Meanwhile in Spain they are rejoicing as after a trial indoor concert attended by 5,000 people with only six patrons testing positive for COVID. Of those six only one was reported as contagious. That does not sound like much but if you do the sums it isn't as safe as it sounds. On Sunday 80,000 people attended the Collingwood v Essendon game at the MCG. If one in a thousand had tested positive after the game it would have been 80 cases with 13 contagious which would have meant another lockdown for Melbourne and all sorts of travel restrictions around Australia. Another complication is the Spanish used antigen tests in the pre concert testing which while quicker is not as accurate as PCR testing and has shown a high level of false negatives.

On the face of these apparently pleasing results the Spaniards will probably relax restrictions on public events and wonder why they end up back where they were in January when they had 35,000 cases per day. The thinking in Europe is distinctly different from that of Australia. In Europe they are resigned to containing the virus while in Australia we strive to eliminate it and the results show.

Meanwhile expert Fox epidemiologist Alan Jones weighs in

 

FishingRick04

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raptalia

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I hope this tosser gets the full $10,000 fine. Like them or hate them the QR codes are there for a reason as we have seen recently in Perth and anyone who tampers with them plays with public safety.

There was also a report that in the Adelaide Hills anti vaxers had altered QR codes to direct users to an anti vaccination site. Hopefully these people also get caught.

 

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RussellEbertHandball

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India hit 100k daily cases on 4th April and they are talking a peak of 500k a day in mid May. But that means it will still be 100k a day for at least 6 weeks after the peak.

As we have seen around the world, when the health system gets overloaded the mortality rate goes from around 1% to somewhere between 3% to 6%, even higher in Italy's case and got to 14% of positive cases in April/May last year. India's mortality rate has been sitting on around 1.5% for 6 months but that will zoom up unfortunately.

Victoria's mortality rate went from 0.86% to 4.40% between 1st July and 15th October last year.

So that's probably 10 million cases recorded in a first 6 weeks to the peak and maybe the same in the next 6 weeks.

That means that from mid April to mid June anywhere from 300k to 500k could die from those reported positive cases. That is bloody scary, especially given the current official tally passed 200k today. 40k have died in April.

People are dying from covid at the moment who haven't even been tested so they won't be recorded as a covid death. The excess deaths stats wont come out for several months to get a truer picture.
 

raptalia

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Stupid selfish git

It calls into question the security around QR coding. Maybe sticking them to the shop window is not secure enough, perhaps they need to be moved inside of the shop to stop idiots from interfering with them? Then again hit this tosser with a $10,000 fine and hopefully it may act as a deterrent.
 

Borscht Mat

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This realistic I think. The virus spread much earlier in Europe than Australia and it is much harder to close Europe down internally and to the rest of the world so it is here to stay and we see if we can turn it into the flu which comes around every year but vulnerable people are vaccinated and it does not shut down the medical system.

Australia has the opposite problem. It has (rightly) focused on zero community transmission which is fair enough for now. But if the rest of the world lives with a small level of transmission it will be hard for Australia to move UP to that level (psychologically). Or you can maintain quarantine for incoming travelers and lock downs at the first sign of an outbreak.

It was interesting a couple of weeks ago with the discussion around what to do with vaccinated Australians overseas. It is perhaps a chance to trial a system of:

1. You are vaccinated with a recognized vaccine by a recognized authority
2. You test negative before boarding your flight
3. You are tested at the airport on arrival.
4. You stay at home until you get a negative result from that test.

apart from the vaccine bit this is how things are done today in Singapore if you travel from a "safe" country (eg Australia).
 

sobrave

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For international travellers, what if in future they have to show proof of vaccination and in addition must quarantine for 24 hours or until they can be tested and show a negative test
 

raptalia

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For international travellers, what if in future they have to show proof of vaccination and in addition must quarantine for 24 hours or until they can be tested and show a negative test
A good point was made this morning about vaccine passports. Not all vaccines are equal where will Chinese nationals with a Sinovac immunisation and a 50% efficacy rate stand? Will we be happy having these people flying into Australia?
 

davesnothere

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For international travellers, what if in future they have to show proof of vaccination and in addition must quarantine for 24 hours or until they can be tested and show a negative test
Think realistically you can travel freely or not. The testing and expenses involved in enforcing compliance with rules/laws outweigh the benefits of having international travel.
 

Lawnchair Larry

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As at 28 Apr 2021:

So far, 2,030,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been delivered across Australia.

Change from previous day: 61,000

Taking Australia's population as 25.8mill current % vaccinated = (2.03/25.8) x 100:
7.9%
 

philreich

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India hit 100k daily cases on 4th April and they are talking a peak of 500k a day in mid May. But that means it will still be 100k a day for at least 6 weeks after the peak.

As we have seen around the world, when the health system gets overloaded the mortality rate goes from around 1% to somewhere between 3% to 6%, even higher in Italy's case and got to 14% of positive cases in April/May last year. India's mortality rate has been sitting on around 1.5% for 6 months but that will zoom up unfortunately.

Victoria's mortality rate went from 0.86% to 4.40% between 1st July and 15th October last year.

So that's probably 10 million cases recorded in a first 6 weeks to the peak and maybe the same in the next 6 weeks.

That means that from mid April to mid June anywhere from 300k to 500k could die from those reported positive cases. That is bloody scary, especially given the current official tally passed 200k today. 40k have died in April.

People are dying from covid at the moment who haven't even been tested so they won't be recorded as a covid death. The excess deaths stats wont come out for several months to get a truer picture.
The radio news said yesterday that a person is dying of COVID-19 in Delhi every 4 minutes, and that's only the official figure - who knows what the true number is? At the moment, India is around 14 million cases behind America: the way things are spiralling out of control, India will wipe out that deficit in the next couple of months.
 

raptalia

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The ABC tells us...

Most cases acquired in Australia
SA Health has revealed where people who have tested positive for coronavirus in South Australia are believed to have acquired it, since the start of the pandemic more than a year ago.
More than a quarter of the 720 infections recorded so far were acquired within Australia — either within South Australia or interstate.



So what, the more relevant fact is 533 or 74% of SA's 720 cases have been imported via overseas travellers including cruise ships. On that basis SA has done pretty well in limiting the localised spread of the virus. Of the overseas infection the most from a single country has been from the UK (73) with India (46) closing the gap in recent weeks. Outside of locally acquired cases the largest single infection (124 cases) came via cruise ships. I imagine most of that came courtesy of the Corona Princess aka Gladys Berejiklian. The detail is in the link below.


 

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