Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact IV “Phasing into the New Normal”

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Rowan18

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We are and should be making the most of our situation when we can. Sure, the virus could get in here again, but I suspect that if we see even 1 or 2 cases of community transmission, we'll roll things back pretty quick. SA has done this and seems to be coping alright.

Victoria has really taken one for the team here. Every can see exactly what happens if you don't respond quickly enough.
 

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Rowan18

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Auckland (not all of NZ) back into lockdown after some community transmissions. Haven’t read any other details...
Where the hell did that come from?

Makes you wonder about the end game for this thing. If we don't get a vaccine we're going to have to accept a level of spread as countries can't keep locking down all the time. Maybe Sweden was right all along.
 

Ok Boomer

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NZ have locked down an entire city after four unexpected cases. Thinking you have defeated the virus is foolish, fully reopening everything is foolish and using ultra hard borders with full reopening will prove to be foolish. NZ in theory is a far safer place at the moment than WA, yet here we are.

None of these new NZ cases have been overseas at all.
 
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Ok Boomer

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The trend is starting to look better in Victoria (the graph below is for all of Australia but entire right half might as well be labelled Victoria)
View attachment 932978
The results from NSW today if anything are just as concerning. A fully reopened NZ city has locked down after four cases. What will the threshold for further restrictions be for a partially reopened NSW? They have done very well but the latest figures are a backwards step.
 

ConcreteWaters

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Where the hell did that come from?

Makes you wonder about the end game for this thing. If we don't get a vaccine we're going to have to accept a level of spread as countries can't keep locking down all the time. Maybe Sweden was right all along.
Contact tracing, mandatory masks in public and mandatory testing and isolation if you exhibit any symptoms. It's not going away.

The 90 minute test could be a game changer as it would allow testing for active infection before at risk people are exposed (e.g. testing in care homes or family members who have people who require shielding).
It needs to be talked about as there is a reasonable chance an effective vaccine isn't found.
 

Hangover Noir

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Where the hell did that come from?

Makes you wonder about the end game for this thing. If we don't get a vaccine we're going to have to accept a level of spread as countries can't keep locking down all the time. Maybe Sweden was right all along.
Going in and out of lockdown does not seem to me to be a viable long term strategy.

Sweden for what it’s worth is down to zero (or near zero) deaths per day for the last week or so. Their deaths per million rate was high but is being rapidly overtaken by other countries as they continue to rack up zeroes.
 

Hap Hapablap

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sounds bizarre what happened in auckland

personally its three things

1. either they were lax when they released someone into the public after they completed quarantine
2. they deliberately let someone infected to go out in public to test the waters; or
3. there is something very sinister with the whole infection process. borderline warfare.

it puzzles me how four cases just all of a sudden appear.
 

ashley12

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The four cases are a family so it's in essence one case/initial contact now in the wild. How and where that came about though will be interesting to follow.

The restrictions for levels 2 and 3 are still better than a lot of places around the world in regards to what is an isnt open so I wouldn't be ruling out the NZ model yet.
 

ZergMinion

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The four cases are a family so it's in essence one case/initial contact now in the wild. How and where that came about though will be interesting to follow.

The restrictions for levels 2 and 3 are still better than a lot of places around the world in regards to what is an isnt open so I wouldn't be ruling out the NZ model yet.
Sweden: 5770 deaths off a population of around 10,000,000.
NZ: 22 deaths off a population of around 5,000,000.

I struggle with people who genuinely believe the Swedish model has anything to offer. Going the Sweden route here would have meant over 12,000 deaths in Australia rather than the 322 we currently have. It's also way to early to figure where Sweden will end up given they've only recorded less than 1% if the population as having had the virus.

Sweden cheerleaders are too rooted in ideology to make sensible decisions on behalf of the rest of us.
 

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MrKK

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Sweden: 5770 deaths off a population of around 10,000,000.
NZ: 22 deaths off a population of around 5,000,000.

I struggle with people who genuinely believe the Swedish model has anything to offer. Going the Sweden route here would have meant over 12,000 deaths in Australia rather than the 322 we currently have. It's also way to early to figure where Sweden will end up given they've only recorded less than 1% if the population as having had the virus.

Sweden cheerleaders are too rooted in ideology to make sensible decisions on behalf of the rest of us.
All strategies have something to offer. Even if Sweden's turns out to be an absolute disaster (I predict it won't) it would be a learning tool. They key is a willingness to learn; there is ideology on all sides.
 

RookiePick

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All strategies have something to offer. Even if Sweden's turns out to be an absolute disaster (I predict it won't) it would be a learning tool. They key is a willingness to learn; there is ideology on all sides.
Happy to let other places run with the high death rate strategies. Not that keen on death personally.
 

Hap Hapablap

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the sweden method was a failure. economy still got screwed and there is no sign of herd immunity.

vaccine will sort it out. russians are claiming they have one. still think the rest of the world will have one in december.

this time next year who knows how the world will be.
 

Hap Hapablap

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also today marks some slightly good news, victorian active cases have lowered essentially meaning recoveries are catching up to the amount of new cases per day. however still a very long way to go.
 

Rowan18

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the sweden method was a failure. economy still got screwed and there is no sign of herd immunity.

vaccine will sort it out. russians are claiming they have one. still think the rest of the world will have one in december.

this time next year who knows how the world will be.
The Swedish economy dropped because they rely on exports, for which demand dropped in the countries that purchase it due to COVID. This would have happened regardless of their lockdown approach.

As others have said, their approach isn't perfect but it is important to analyse it, because it will give insight in how to handle a scenario if there is no vaccine (which I don't expect will happen but there is no certainty yet). It is also important to assess how they are traveling at the end of the year, when winter hits in the northern hemisphere and the virus cases spike in countries that have loosened restrictions (we have already started seeing this in UK and Spain etc). There is every chance that they end up far ahead in the longterm.

The ideology stuff linked to their approach is bullshit and oddly backwards. The conservatives claim that Sweden is the way to go (yet oddly, their approach is incredible liberal and not conservative at all) and the liberals cry that no life can be risked and that they are evil for looking out for the economy. At the end of the day, it was just a different way of handling things (which other countries like Taiwan also implemented).
 

Rowan18

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also today marks some slightly good news, victorian active cases have lowered essentially meaning recoveries are catching up to the amount of new cases per day. however still a very long way to go.
The Victorian cases are trending as the public health experts hoped. There is a clear trend of stable case numbers now, the next step is to see them declining in the next fortnight. This is a good sign.
 

ZergMinion

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All strategies have something to offer. Even if Sweden's turns out to be an absolute disaster (I predict it won't) it would be a learning tool. They key is a willingness to learn; there is ideology on all sides.
Important to remember that government mandated lockdowns are unconstitutional in Sweden, so they went the way they did because that's all they could do. If it ends up working out ok it's another indicator that luck plays a big part in pandemics.
 

MrKK

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Important to remember that government mandated lockdowns are unconstitutional in Sweden, so they went the way they did because that's all they could do. If it ends up working out ok it's another indicator that luck plays a big part in pandemics.
There's no evidence that they would've changed their strategy without those constitutional restrictions. It seems their guiding philosophy was a consideration of overall public health.
 

Seadog

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The Swedish economy dropped because they rely on exports, for which demand dropped in the countries that purchase it due to COVID. This would have happened regardless of their lockdown approach.

As others have said, their approach isn't perfect but it is important to analyse it, because it will give insight in how to handle a scenario if there is no vaccine (which I don't expect will happen but there is no certainty yet). It is also important to assess how they are traveling at the end of the year, when winter hits in the northern hemisphere and the virus cases spike in countries that have loosened restrictions (we have already started seeing this in UK and Spain etc). There is every chance that they end up far ahead in the longterm.

The ideology stuff linked to their approach is bullshit and oddly backwards. The conservatives claim that Sweden is the way to go (yet oddly, their approach is incredible liberal and not conservative at all) and the liberals cry that no life can be risked and that they are evil for looking out for the economy. At the end of the day, it was just a different way of handling things (which other countries like Taiwan also implemented).
Taiwans strategy was not really similar to Swedens, The only reason they didn't have a lockdown is because they never had enough cases to warrant it. They did simulate a lockdown so they would be prepared if they needed it.

Taiwan’s model
Taiwan’s handling of COVID-19 has been exemplary. As of June 29, Taiwan, with a population of 23.8 million, has recorded only seven deaths linked to the virus, with 447 confirmed cases – 435 of which had fully recovered.
The Taiwanese government acted quickly to control its borders. It activated a Central Epidemic Command Centre (CECC) on January 20 to coordinate cooperation across different government ministries and agencies, and between government and businesses. The CECC also coordinates big data analytics, testing, quarantine and contact tracing.
Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Administration and National Immigration Agency worked together to identify suspected cases for COVID-19 testing, integrating their databases of citizens’ medical and travel history. Since late March, all new arrivals must quarantine for 14 days.
CECC also partnered with police agencies, local officials and telecom companies to enforce quarantine with the support of mobile phone tracking. Local officials would call quarantined citizens to ask about their health and bring them basic daily supplies if required. Along with a 24-hour helpline, Taiwan’s Center for Disease Control collaborated with two tech companiesHTC and LINE) – to create a chatbot which allowed people to report their health status and get advice about the virus.
 

ZergMinion

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There's no evidence that they would've changed their strategy without those constitutional restrictions. It seems their guiding philosophy was a consideration of overall public health.
Also no evidence they wouldn't have? No way they'd come out and say they got it wrong. That's just not how politicians operate. This pandemic has gone on long enough that most of the goal post shifting goes unnoticed due to it being just slow enough.

It should also be remembered that Sweden is a single country. Doing the exact same thing they did in Sweden could have a totally different result in another country. Were they lucky or unlucky? We won't know for a long time.

All I know is that by and large, the Sweden cheerleaders were the same people claiming it was just a flu in March, and I'm glad we're not putting our countries overall health in the hands of people like that.
 

Ok Boomer

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Would some virus riddled freight be a possible source of infection in NZ?
That would throw a cat amongst the pigeons in regards to borders here as stopping and checking or restricting all cargo will not be practical.

The Russian vaccine is interesting, even if it is dodgy I am very confident that we will find a vaccine due to the common global interest in eliminating COVID.
 

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