Mega Thread >>COVID-19 DISCUSSION THREAD<<

[The King!]

Same thing with the corporate tax, since companies only pay tax if they make a profit. If their income falls due to not being able to trade, then less tax will be collected.

For some businesses it might be a couple of years before they start paying tax again, if they record a big enough loss this year.

I think we will see those with money get a larger share of the wealth potentially as well by buying up others tattered remains

 

[Kirkswan]

The quickest way to getting the economy back that won't kill people is to find out:

1. Once you have the virus and are better, can you get it again?
2. If you never had obvious symptoms, can you find out if you had it?

If the answers are "No" then "Yes" then we have 3 groups of people: The ones who had it and are better, the ones that have it, and the ones yet to have it.

Get the people in the 1st group back into the work force as you can't get it again, treat those in group 2 so they can become group 1 and if you are in group 3 keep isolating until you become group 2 or we get a vaccine of some kind

EDIT: Just to expand on this a bit and my reason for this thinking.

I was in NJ and NYC around the 6th-11th of March. The mandatory 14 day stay at home if you came from overseas was brought in on the 14th, the day after I got home. So I did my 14 days not going anywhere. Before I flew home I had one day or so when my nose was stuffed and I felt like I had a head cold. I know this is the flu and stronger than that but as I'm in my mid 20s, maybe I only got it a little bit. Am I immune now? And by extension are my family that I saw every day?

No, you are not immune regardless of whether you have had it or not... If you've had it, you may have some immunity in the short term, so that if you contract it again you may have a lighter dose. The common cold is a corona virus... just like MERS, SARS & COVID-19.

Also, at this stage COVID-19 has mutated at least twice, so there are three versions of it. At this stage they don't know if your possible temporary immunity (which they think lasts months at best) will cover all three.

 

[Millky95]

No, you are not immune regardless of whether you have had it or not... If you've had it, you may have some immunity in the short term, so that if you contract it again you may have a lighter dose. The common cold is a corona virus... just like MERS, SARS & COVID-19.

Also, at this stage COVID-19 has mutated at least twice, so there are three versions of it. At this stage they don't know if your possible temporary immunity (which they think lasts months at best) will cover all three.

So jump out the window? Gotcha.

 

[The King!]

just wait it out

 

[Kirkswan]

We make trade offs for money and lives all the time. Check the QALY metrics (I referred to these earlier in the thread).

Here is a really simple example. We know that influenza causes ~18,000 hospitalisations and ~3000 deaths each year. We could reduce that number substantially if we went into a country-wide lockdown each year between April and September. We don't.

We have decided that 3000 deaths from a disease is acceptable. There will be a higher number that is also deemed acceptable. I don't know what that number is yet, but we will soon find out.

I'm aware of the trade offs... and there are plenty out there. It's why the NDIS is an insurance scheme?

However, I still think that your example is much too simplistic... COVID-19 threatens Australians as a whole, and the Government is there to protect Australians as a whole. The bigger we get, the more outliers there are, and the more people slip through the cracks.

Every Australian over 18 (?) can get a flu vaccination to mitigate the risk, and if they are on a pension or part pension, then the tax payer foots the bill. There are multiple versions of flu around all the time (over a 100), and the current vaccines only mitigate about 4 (I think, might be still 3).

However there are significant differences in the way they impact the Australians.

The contagion factor of the seasonal flu is not nearly as high as the COVID-19 corona virus.

Nursing a patient with flu does not require full PPE to prevent cross-infection. There is no threat to health of nursing and/or medical staff, and as a result, no threat to the Health System.

Likening COVID-19 to the seasonal flu is like comparing an East Coast Low to a thunderstorm. The Government must act.

 

[Kirkswan]

So jump out the window? Gotcha.

No mate, you're in your 20s, you'll most likely survive. It appears that it's those who are obese, have high blood pressure, weak hearts, low blood pressure, kidney, liver, or just about any other problem that are in trouble...

Who the hell knows? But if I'm gambling my kids and their kids, I'm backing the scientists and not the analysts...

 

[swansfan51]

I'm aware of the trade offs... and there are plenty out there. It's why the NDIS is an insurance scheme?

However, I still think that your example is much too simplistic... COVID-19 threatens Australians as a whole, and the Government is there to protect Australians as a whole. The bigger we get, the more outliers there are, and the more people slip through the cracks.

Every Australian over 18 (?) can get a flu vaccination to mitigate the risk, and if they are on a pension or part pension, then the tax payer foots the bill. There are multiple versions of flu around all the time (over a 100), and the current vaccines only mitigate about 4 (I think, might be still 3).

However there are significant differences in the way they impact the Australians.

The contagion factor of the seasonal flu is not nearly as high as the COVID-19 corona virus.

Nursing a patient with flu does not require full PPE to prevent cross-infection. There is no threat to health of nursing and/or medical staff, and as a result, no threat to the Health System.

Likening COVID-19 to the seasonal flu is like comparing an East Coast Low to a thunderstorm. The Government must act.

I know it is not the flu. My point is that a certain number of deaths are deemed acceptable, which is why the country is not shut down during flu season.

If you don't like that example, use cigarettes. We know that smoking results in 20,000 deaths (including hundreds due to second hand smoke), and it won't be banned. If you don't like that example, there are many others.

Whether people like it or not, these decisions are made all the time and the government will have an acceptable level of death from COVID-19, we just haven't been told what it is yet.

 

[The King!]

I know it is not the flu. My point is that a certain number of deaths are deemed acceptable, which is why the country is not shut down during flu season.

If you don't like that example, use cigarettes. We know that smoking results in 20,000 deaths (including hundreds due to second hand smoke), and it won't be banned. If you don't like that example, there are many others.

Whether people like it or not, these decisions are made all the time and the government will have an acceptable level of death from COVID-19, we just haven't been told what it is yet.

They haven’t decided who’s deciding yet state or federal

 

[Kirkswan]

I know it is not the flu. My point is that a certain number of deaths are deemed acceptable, which is why the country is not shut down during flu season.

If you don't like that example, use cigarettes. We know that smoking results in 20,000 deaths (including hundreds due to second hand smoke), and it won't be banned. If you don't like that example, there are many others.

Whether people like it or not, these decisions are made all the time and the government will have an acceptable level of death from COVID-19, we just haven't been told what it is yet.

We could go on forever here, I already gave you that the Govt makes that type of decision all the time, and they will again when they open up...

But I am absolutely not convinced that there was a choice not to shut down...

But we could go on all night and bore the shit out of everyone else, so lets not

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

We make trade offs for money and lives all the time. Check the QALY metrics (I referred to these earlier in the thread).

Here is a really simple example. We know that influenza causes ~18,000 hospitalisations and ~3000 deaths each year. We could reduce that number substantially if we went into a country-wide lockdown each year between April and September. We don't.

We have decided that 3000 deaths from a disease is acceptable. There will be a higher number that is also deemed acceptable. I don't know what that number is yet, but we will soon find out.

But the flu is infinitely more predictable and hence manageable.

 

[The King!]

We could go on forever here, I already gave you that the Govt makes that type of decision all the time, and they will again when they open up...

But I am absolutely not convinced that there was a choice not to shut down...

But we could go on all night and bore the shit out of everyone else, so lets not

dont think anyones suggestion is restrictions were wrong i agree with that

also i wouldnt sit here and try to pretend now it looks to be flattening it would have anyway, but at some stage presumably we accept the disease is there and we are in a position to make the demand on the health system manageable

as its not going to go away




how about we just bring back footy

 

[The King!]

pridham supports the hub idea

 

[sataris]

 

[sataris]

Anyone ever think that the world is fighting back? Not the people, but the earth itself? Or nature? That there's too many of us? So it's thinning us out a little?

We've seen the development of a number of corona and other viruses over the last 50 years... what if there's another one lurking 10 years down the track?

I think that's precisely what's happening.

 

[Kirkswan]

dont think anyones suggestion is restrictions were wrong i agree with that

also i wouldnt sit here and try to pretend now it looks to be flattening it would have anyway, but at some stage presumably we accept the disease is there and we are in a position to make the demand on the health system manageable

as its not going to go away




how about we just bring back footy

Sit tight... if we aren't playing by the first week of June, I'll change my avatar to the below until we do...

 

[sataris]

Sit tight... if we aren't playing by the first week of June, I'll change my avatar to the below until we do...

View attachment 860871

Thanks but you can just call me Your Grace

 

[Bear31]

Thanks so much Ticky! Very interesting if also disturbing.

I don’t know what others do but I daily log into Worldodometer and check our stats against other countries. We started out in position 17 and now through success we are position 35 on number of cases. We are near the peak of successful countries but there was one in particular quite a bit more successful with similar case numbers- UAE. So I did some research as to their treatment choices. Apparently they enlisted the aid of Sourh Korea to access convalescent plasma of survivors and that has been their treatment. They have 37 deaths and 1 serious case with almost identical case numbers as us more than 6000. Like WOW. That’s a death rate of 0.5% approx and that excludes Asymptomatic in the community so is even more impressive. Use of convalescent plasma has historically been used for numerous pandemics. I’m thinking it will likely be best treatment option in the long run and if those UAE results are replicated it means it will become no worse than the seasonal flu. A limiting factor of course is accessing enough people in recovery to have sufficient stocks. I hope that someone in AUST is asking people who’ve recovered to come forward

This is how the used to treat patiens for serious diseases before cures were found. Not new. This is old school and was very successful in the past. I reckon CSL as the leader in blood plasma products worldwise (have major blood collection facilities) would be in a prime position to get this done quickly and trial it.

 

[Bear31]

It will be inconvenient but not impact future generations. Don’t overstate it. Boosting GST to 15% from 10% and coy tax to 35% (from 27.5 or 30 depending on size of coy) and inc personal tax revenue by 10% overall will bolster annual revenue by about $85B.

On that basis it will take about 5 years to pay off the $300B.

Instead the government is likely to look at a 10 year plan which will restore us to current position and so moderate measures accordingly. Even those choices I made aren’t so difficult it would be onerous let alone worthy of sacrificing one life. So a ten year plan is mild inconvenience is all

I think boosting tax on profits is dumb. A lot of companies pay near zero tax for a number of reasons despite earning billions. % of revenue and other measures should be looked at not just % of profits. Some companies register in zero tax havens and repatriate loaned monies offshore etc. If you are earning billions in Aust you should be paying a fairer amount of tax. btw Kerry Packer never paid much tax and before a Senate enquiry was asked why. He said you make the rules I just follow them or something like that.

 

[Bear31]

No, you are not immune regardless of whether you have had it or not... If you've had it, you may have some immunity in the short term, so that if you contract it again you may have a lighter dose. The common cold is a corona virus... just like MERS, SARS & COVID-19.

Also, at this stage COVID-19 has mutated at least twice, so there are three versions of it. At this stage they don't know if your possible temporary immunity (which they think lasts months at best) will cover all three.

Apparently it has mutated at least 6 times

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I know it is not the flu. My point is that a certain number of deaths are deemed acceptable, which is why the country is not shut down during flu season.

If you don't like that example, use cigarettes. We know that smoking results in 20,000 deaths (including hundreds due to second hand smoke), and it won't be banned. If you don't like that example, there are many others.

Whether people like it or not, these decisions are made all the time and the government will have an acceptable level of death from COVID-19, we just haven't been told what it is yet.

Part of the problem is the uncertainty about morality rate. When it was above 3% and higher rate for the elderly 15% it is very threatening. At 1% which now appears the correct rate here in Aust it’s problematic but not threatening to same extent. Still there are multiple uncertainties with it being novel. What is long term damage to heart to lungs or other organs. Will it become more lethal. Remember back when hiv was new it was frightening too but at least with it you wouldn’t catch it going to the shops.

 

[brad cooper]

I know it is not the flu. My point is that a certain number of deaths are deemed acceptable, which is why the country is not shut down during flu season.

If you don't like that example, use cigarettes. We know that smoking results in 20,000 deaths (including hundreds due to second hand smoke), and it won't be banned. If you don't like that example, there are many others.

Whether people like it or not, these decisions are made all the time and the government will have an acceptable level of death from COVID-19, we just haven't been told what it is yet.

Your example with cigarettes is spot on, I keep hearing from state premiers that this is all about saving lives, yet we sell something that is proven to cause death and related diseases.

I have no idea of the figures but what would be the cost to the health system of looking after smoking related illness?

 

[swansfan51]

Your example with cigarettes is spot on, I keep hearing from state premiers that this is all about saving lives, yet we sell something that is proven to cause death and related diseases.

I have no idea of the figures but what would be the cost to the health system of looking after smoking related illness?

Most recent figure I have is about $7bn a year in direct healthcare costs. Many times that in indirect costs

 

[The King!]

Most recent figure I have is about $7bn a year in direct healthcare costs. Many times that in indirect costs

makes about 15billion a year so the government making some nice tax money

 

[SeanM]

I think they have to loosen things up at some stage. We don't know when a vaccine will be available. So we can't just wait for that to happen.

Even with the current level of restrictions we are still getting outbreaks like the Tasmanian hospital and the NSW aged care home. Maybe the social distancing helped slow it. But it suggests that even with heavy restrictions there is always a chance of sudden outbreaks with multiple cases.

=-=
I think the first thing to go will be law in some states where you can't leave your house without a valid reason. I think police will continue to disperse large crowds of people. But I don't like the idea of police being able to approach me and demand to know what my reason is for being outside. Or harass someone who just wants to sit by themselves in a park.

 

[Ticky009]