Mega Thread >>COVID-19 DISCUSSION THREAD<<

[Kirkswan]

Without trying to downplay the seriousness of this outbreak, is Australia doing better than we were expected to be? I remember the Friday arvo before Scomo's Hillsong conference (March 13th) that some experts (and Twitter users) were concerned that we were a fortnight behind Italy and at risk of following their trajectory. Well it's now almost exactly a fortnight later and two deaths overnight have brought the total deaths to 11. Not saying we won't reach that point (bloody hope not), but it doesn't seem to be as bad as some thought (yet).

Anyone know why this could be? Or have I just totally got it wrong, in which case someone feel free to correct me. Losing track of days and weeks in isolation lol

No you've got it right... the problem with Italy, Iran, Spain and a few others is that they weren't testing for it until it was well and truly out of control.

So while they were showing say a 1000 cases, with say 25 dead, they actually had many, many more infections that they simply weren't aware of. And those infected were travelling throughout their country and the surrounding countries unaware that they were carriers. They live in very dense housing, and travel within other countries very regularly... imagine one infected person hanging around in Rome airport for eight hours for a flight... A couple of days later, thousands would have been infected.

We're doing okay... it's going to get worse, but it won't hit us the same way it did them. There'll be loss of life but not as much, because on the whole, we're healthy and our health system is better equipped for something like this. And if Scomo get's it right, a recession rather than a depression...

Cross your fingers, pray if that's your way, send positive thoughts... and just hope for the best.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Read somewhere that one study currently estimates with a 95% confidence interval that the true fatality rate, when accounting for the high infection rate and the entire population of asymptomatic and truly mild cases, is around 0.2%. Making it only twice as deadly as seasonal flu. I believe they are using Germany's data as a foundation.

Lack of general population testing worlwide and only testung people who are already admitting to hospital skews the numbers a bit.

We'll see.

That rate isn’t possible. Its much higher though considerably lower than has been routinely quoted.

The perfect case is the diamond princess cruise ship. It’s total population of 712 resolved with 10 deaths and 15 still serious or critical. Assuming no deaths in that 15 then the death rate becomes 1.4%. Assuming an even dispersion (which stats seem to support) then the death rate is 2.2%. But they didn’t get immediate treatment and the hypothetical passenger of cruises probably has a higher mean age than general population so that the death rate will come down to around 1.6% I believe. In all other cases it hasn’t been possible to ascertain asymptomatic but the cruise had a finite population so is very important in statistical sense. All tested. The rate of asymptomatic % on disembarking was 46.5%.

 

[Kirkswan]

The Italy comparison chart was always false. We were testing 10 times the numbers that Italy was with less than half their population. So our infection rate, whilst equal in numbers, was actually only about 10% of theirs.

Exactly!!

 

[caesar88]

No you've got it right... the problem with Italy, Iran, Spain and a few others is that they weren't testing for it until it was well and truly out of control.

So while they were showing say a 1000 cases, with say 25 dead, they actually had many, many more infections that they simply weren't aware of. And those infected were travelling throughout their country and the surrounding countries unaware that they were carriers. They live in very dense housing, and travel within other countries very regularly... imagine one infected person hanging around in Rome airport for eight hours for a flight... A couple of days later, thousands would have been infected.

We're doing okay... it's going to get worse, but it won't hit us the same way it did them. There'll be loss of life but not as much, because on the whole, we're healthy and our health system is better equipped for something like this. And if Scomo get's it right, a recession rather than a depression...

Cross your fingers, pray if that's your way, send positive thoughts... and just hope for the best.

I suppose we had the luxury of time. Just that few extra weeks to discover and learn about the spread of this virus throughout countries like China, Italy, South Korea and Iran, which were all hit hard and fast before it was even called a pandemic if I recall correctly.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Without trying to downplay the seriousness of this outbreak, is Australia doing better than we were expected to be? I remember the Friday arvo before Scomo's Hillsong conference (March 13th) that some experts (and Twitter users) were concerned that we were a fortnight behind Italy and at risk of following their trajectory. Well it's now almost exactly a fortnight later and two deaths overnight have brought the total deaths to 11. Not saying we won't reach that point (bloody hope not), but it doesn't seem to be as bad as some thought (yet).

Anyone know why this could be? Or have I just totally got it wrong, in which case someone feel free to correct me. Losing track of days and weeks in isolation lol

The answer I believe lies in the rate of testing. We are rated as undertaking more tests per capita than any country in the world. That level of testing together with the tracing and isolation that has taken place puts us in a perfect situation. It enables us to accurately ascertain the full breadth of spread and therefore we are acting with most accurate knowledge of our situation than anyone. Brilliant. It has also been reported that front line treatments have included the malaria and HIV drugs both of which have shown in test tube testing to kill the virus. Indeed a QLD research institution is commencing an Australia wide treatment (masquerading as a trial) encompassing some 60 hospitals that will determine efficacy of those drugs including combination treatments. If those treatments are being used frontline it would explain the extremely low death rate (most of which occurred after patient was beyond help- half off cruise ships and at least 3 ex age care spread). I’m ecstatic with the amazingly effort that has been made to place us as we have. The only factor unresolved is the ability of leaders to further undertake more stringent measures. If they do then we will go the same track as others who have totally controlled this virus. Extremely optimistic.

Contrast with USA who are totally screwed- 11000 new cases a day and with an idiot saying they will go back to work in a few weeks. They will have 6M die if he persists with that approach. What a tool. He’s in his seventies right?

 

[caesar88]

The answer I believe lies in the rate of testing. We are rated as undertaking more tests per capita than any country in the world. That level of testing together with the tracing and isolation that has taken place puts us in a perfect situation. It enables us to accurately ascertain the full breadth of spread and therefore we are acting with most accurate knowledge of our situation than anyone. Brilliant. It has also been reported that front line treatments have included the malaria and HIV drugs both of which have shown in test tube testing to kill the virus. Indeed a QLD research institution is commencing an Australia wide treatment (masquerading as a trial) encompassing some 60 hospitals that will determine efficacy of those drugs including combination treatments. If those treatments are being used frontline it would explain the extremely low death rate (most of which occurred after patient was beyond help- half off cruise ships and at least 3 ex age care spread). I’m ecstatic with the amazingly effort that has been made to place us as we have. The only factor unresolved is the ability of leaders to further undertake more stringent measures. If they do then we will go the same track as others who have totally controlled this virus. Extremely optimistic.

Contrast with USA who are totally screwed- 11000 new cases a day and with an idiot saying they will go back to work in a few weeks. They will have 6M die if he persists with that approach. What a tool. He’s in his seventies right?

Hope you are right there puke. Like I said though I reckon the fact our medical industry has fortified itself so well for this pandemic is a large part due to the fact they had the time and knowledge to do so. We only had a few fatalities (including the first from the Diamond Princess here in WA) when it was recognised as a pandemic by WHO, which really gave us the wake-up call that perhaps Italy, Iran etc weren't so lucky to get. They barely even knew it was among their population until it well and truly was. The hysteria in the shops that went viral at the first death also probably forced Australia to take notice of this thing more than they otherwise might've.

As for Trump, well... he gets his information from Fox News, and Fox News get their information from Trump. Round and round it goes. Just an echo chamber of delusion and ignorance. Absolute amateur hour over there.

 

[Punts]

I'm still working and going into the office each day... there's about 10 of us in a space for 200 or more

I will continue to do so until I'm told otherwise.

The panic is still on the rise, but no-one can sustain panic forever, so it'll have to start dropping at some point...

On the plus side, never have a problem with parking!

How about you?

The roads are dead atm , not much peak hour

1 minute We are hearing they will shut us then next hearing they won’t.

Day to day but I can’t see them shutting trades

 

[Ticky009]

Over the next few days you will find banks and financial institutions testing temperatures on all peeps walking into their office blocks

 

[Kirkswan]

The roads are dead atm , not much peak hour

1 minute We are hearing they will shut us then next hearing they won’t.

Day to day but I can’t see them shutting trades

The nursing home my father lives in has the plumber coming tomorrow... imagine if they stop coming when they're called! Shit everywhere... literally!! lol

I just can't imagine how they could shut any of the trades down, bit like the doctors, the nurses, the truckies, etc...

haven't quite figured out the need for hairdressing salons though... Lol!

 

[sataris]

Over the next few days you will find banks and financial institutions testing temperatures on all peeps walking into their office blocks

Been happening here for weeks.

 

[Kirkswan]

The answer I believe lies in the rate of testing. We are rated as undertaking more tests per capita than any country in the world. That level of testing together with the tracing and isolation that has taken place puts us in a perfect situation. It enables us to accurately ascertain the full breadth of spread and therefore we are acting with most accurate knowledge of our situation than anyone. Brilliant. It has also been reported that front line treatments have included the malaria and HIV drugs both of which have shown in test tube testing to kill the virus. Indeed a QLD research institution is commencing an Australia wide treatment (masquerading as a trial) encompassing some 60 hospitals that will determine efficacy of those drugs including combination treatments. If those treatments are being used frontline it would explain the extremely low death rate (most of which occurred after patient was beyond help- half off cruise ships and at least 3 ex age care spread). I’m ecstatic with the amazingly effort that has been made to place us as we have. The only factor unresolved is the ability of leaders to further undertake more stringent measures. If they do then we will go the same track as others who have totally controlled this virus. Extremely optimistic.

Contrast with USA who are totally screwed- 11000 new cases a day and with an idiot saying they will go back to work in a few weeks. They will have 6M die if he persists with that approach. What a tool. He’s in his seventies right?

Millions will die over there... all those homeless, others who are living on or below the poverty line, no health support, no positive initiatives, it's going to be carnage. It will be the blacks, hispanics and other groups that suffer the most... Imagine if it gets into their prison system...

I feel really sorry for them, but perhaps they'll finally wake up and smell the death! Maybe the people will force the govt to look after all it's people instead of just it's rich and middle classes...

 

[sataris]

I feel really sorry for them, but perhaps they'll finally wake up and smell the death! Maybe the people will force the govt to look after all it's people instead of just it's rich and middle classes...

Will never ever happen.

What will happen is fascism will rise. All it needs is a leader who will
* rail against a foreign virus
* promise to increase military spending
* promise to protect them from external threats.
* blame marginalised groups for the problems

Come to power, and begin tearing down privacy and freedom in the name of security.

Oh and communists burned down the reichstag.

 

[scaryness]

That rate isn’t possible. Its much higher though considerably lower than has been routinely quoted.

The perfect case is the diamond princess cruise ship. It’s total population of 712 resolved with 10 deaths and 15 still serious or critical. Assuming no deaths in that 15 then the death rate becomes 1.4%. Assuming an even dispersion (which stats seem to support) then the death rate is 2.2%. But they didn’t get immediate treatment and the hypothetical passenger of cruises probably has a higher mean age than general population so that the death rate will come down to around 1.6% I believe. In all other cases it hasn’t been possible to ascertain asymptomatic but the cruise had a finite population so is very important in statistical sense. All tested. The rate of asymptomatic % on disembarking was 46.5%.

Diamond Princess was almost entirely middle-aged and older though, no?

The vast majority of true asympomatic cases and mild cases that will lower the rate will come from 0-30 years old and I dont think that ship had a large enough representation of those people.

I'm not saying the study is foolproof though, just found it interesting.

 

[Kirkswan]

Will never ever happen.

What will happen is fascism will rise. All it needs is a leader who will
* rail against a foreign virus
* promise to increase military spending
* promise to protect them from external threats.
* blame marginalised groups for the problems

Come to power, and begin tearing down privacy and freedom in the name of security.

Oh and communists burned down the reichstag.

Yes, I 100% agree that that is a much more likely outcome... and given this is the population that voted for Trump, it's probably almost a certain bet!

But I disagree with the 'never' bit.

At some point that sequence will break, most likely due to internal strife*, war, famine or plague**.

Now we can forget famine, and probably war for the moment, and imo, they're not at the tipping point for strife just yet (close, but not quite yet); but just maybe, this is the plague...

*Civil war
**Old fashioned name for pandemic.

 

[Ticky009]

Watching people social distance as they move about is like watching them try and navigate some invisible obstacle course as we spot someone and hastily change course

 

[caesar88]

Yes, I 100% agree that that is a much more likely outcome... and given this is the population that voted for Trump, it's probably almost a certain bet!

But I disagree with the 'never' bit.

At some point that sequence will break, most likely due to internal strife*, war, famine or plague**.

Now we can forget famine, and probably war for the moment, and imo, they're not at the tipping point for strife just yet (close, but not quite yet); but just maybe, this is the plague...

*Civil war
**Old fashioned name for pandemic.

The problem with the US is that it is too vast, both geographically and demographically, for it's own good. You have people in the South who have barely ventured beyond their rural towns and don't know anything other than what Fox News tells them (seriously the statistics of viewership in Southern states between Fox News and other cable news networks is unfathomable.) Extremely religious, extremely conservative, predominantly identify as Republicans, massive percentage of NRA membership, less likely to interact with minorities. And then you have the coastal states with a largely liberal population, who predominantly identify as Democrats.

Basically two very separate worlds and people existing within the same country. The term United States of America could not be more ironic here. They are incredibly divided, and what was once a differing of ideologies at the voting booth has now evolved into a full-blown culture war, where one group and it's elected representatives try to get the 'win' over the other side, irregardless of human cost.

 

[The King!]

trumps entertaining when he is leading a country you arent in and its not a health crisis

 

[sataris]

Watching people social distance as they move about is like watching them try and navigate some invisible obstacle course as we spot someone and hastily change course

TBH, I do this when I am at work and trying to avoid stupid people.

 

[The King!]

when the tas government update each day , eg 3 new cases

the comments are farked

eg where are they, where did they go, what are their names etc

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Diamond Princess was almost entirely middle-aged and older though, no?

The vast majority of true asympomatic cases and mild cases that will lower the rate will come from 0-30 years old and I dont think that ship had a large enough representation of those people.

I'm not saying the study is foolproof though, just found it interesting.

True but I reduced the actual death rate from 2.2% to 1.6% to compensate.

The deaths on completed cases is 21k to 115k. For the 0.2% death rate to be true per that study the asymptomatic % would need to be 98-99%. The ship showed asymptomatic rate of 46.5% but some may have still been incubating so true asymptomatic would be lower. The age demographic would impact too as you say but even allowing for that factor I really can’t see that 99% of people are infected but show no symptoms so I think the study is flawed in some way.

When all the dust settles my guess is that the true rate will be about 1.6%. I hope I live through it to know how close I was

 

[Kirkswan]

TBH, I do this when I am at work and trying to avoid stupid people.

Damn! It must may you look like your dancing...

 

[Kirkswan]

The problem with the US is that it is too vast, both geographically and demographically, for it's own good. You have people in the South who have barely ventured beyond their rural towns and don't know anything other than what Fox News tells them (seriously the statistics of viewership in Southern states between Fox News and other cable news networks is unfathomable.) Extremely religious, extremely conservative, predominantly identify as Republicans, massive percentage of NRA membership, less likely to interact with minorities. And then you have the coastal states with a largely liberal population, who predominantly identify as Democrats.

Basically two very separate worlds and people existing within the same country. The term United States of America could not be more ironic here. They are incredibly divided, and what was once a differing of ideologies at the voting booth has now evolved into a full-blown culture war, where one group and it's elected representatives try to get the 'win' over the other side, irregardless of human cost.

I agree that there are two very separate worlds, but I don't know that I'd stop at two. Most of the United States became united because they had no other choice but join or die... that kind of persuasion always has interesting outcomes.

Religion and/or conservatism isn't their problem... lots of peaceful countries are religious and/or conservative. Size is definitely a factor, I agree.

Their biggest problem (imo), no matter where they live in the country, is that their corporations have more rights than their citizens... And a lot of their corporations are at war with each other... And corporations manipulate people for money, and cannot be held responsible for the outcomes.

 

[ScottBo]

True but I reduced the actual death rate from 2.2% to 1.6% to compensate.

The deaths on completed cases is 21k to 115k. For the 0.2% death rate to be true per that study the asymptomatic % would need to be 98-99%. The ship showed asymptomatic rate of 46.5% but some may have still been incubating so true asymptomatic would be lower.

When all the dust settles my guess is that the true rate will be about 1.6%. I hope I live through it to know how close I was

When the dust settles I’d like to see the Swans employ you as a statistician, Puke. You have opposition analyst written all over you. Horse and Co will be so befuddled they’ll listen to everything you say. May our days of talking footy return soon.

 

[The King!]

can you go for a drive?

 

[swansfan51]

Over in WA we'd be doing absolutely fine if you dickheads hadn't let that cruise ship dock. 25% of our cases come from cruise ships so far, with a bunch of others coming from direct contact with those passengers