Mega Thread >>COVID-19 DISCUSSION THREAD<<

[caesar88]

but you will use the distant past to decide things can bounce back quick?


ok we also bounced back from past pandemics without shutting the world down as well,


at least its a strategy, sitting inside waiting isnt a strategy , you need an exit

History shows that the movement of peoples (even domestically) can have catastrophic effects during a pandemic (Spanish Flu - 50 million people.) History also shows that recessions and depressions in developed countries with stable governments do not last forever (Depression of the 30s; Recession of 08)

 

[The King!]

History shows that the movement of peoples (even domestically) can have catastrophic effects during a pandemic (Spanish Flu - 50 million people.) History also shows that recessions and depressions in developed countries with stable governments do not last forever (Depression of the 30s; Recession of 08)

were schools closee in the depression?

were businesses restricted in the depression?

if not its not the same, cant bounce back if you arent allowed

the government are fighting two battles, as they have said

we want the same outcome at the end of the day, its a s**t time whichever way you look or focus, but at some stage you have to have a plan to return to some normality you can't delay life to save a few

 

[swansfan51]

History also shows that recessions and depressions in developed countries with stable governments do not last forever (Depression of the 30s; Recession of 08)

They don't last forever. They do kill people by the hundreds of thousands. 10,000 additional suicides in the US, Canada and Europe (https://www.forbes.com/sites/melani...d-to-economic-crisis-study-says/#d32f4e37ae25), soaring domestic violence (we are already seeing this in Australia and I can point to several sources), deaths through housing insecurity, deaths through unemployment, deaths through poverty, deaths through social isolation.

Imperial College, brought to recent attention through their COVID-19 modelling, estimated 500,000 additional cancer deaths during the GFC (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...sed-500000-extra-cancer-death-according-to-l/). That's just a very small start

 

[caesar88]

They don't last forever. They do kill people by the hundreds of thousands. 5,000 additional suicides in 2009 alone, soaring domestic violence (we are already seeing this in Australia and I can point to several sources), deaths through housing insecurity, unemployment, poverty, social isolation.

Tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands < millions. And this virus will take millions of lives if not taken seriously enough.

 

[The King!]

Tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands < millions. And this virus will take millions of lives if not taken seriously enough.

its being taken seriously

 

[swansfan51]

Tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands < millions. And this virus will take millions of lives if not taken seriously enough.

I've given you sources for over half a million deaths without scratching the surface and I didn't even start on the world outside North America and Europe, I didn't even start on poverty, and I didn't even start on the unique factors in this pandemic response such as social isolation. I could go and work you up a death toll in the millions pretty easily, but you would ignore it anyway.

This economic crisis will kill millions of people in the subcontinent and Africa alone, and they don't have the financial capability to respond like the USA and Australia are.

 

[RW]

The choice is for us to decide how long the lockdown lasts. A slow rate of spread, like we have now, means a 12-18 month lockdown.

Which option would you choose?

 

[swansfan51]

Which option would you choose?

I make choices based on facts and data. I want to see the modelling, including modelling of additional suicides, domestic violence, and deaths due to insecure housing and sustained unemployment in order to make a rational decision

At the moment I have nowhere enough information, and neither does anyone else commenting here. The difference is I acknowledge that the situation is far more complex than the headline virus death toll

 

[caesar88]

I've given you sources for over half a million deaths without scratching the surface and I didn't even start on the world outside North America and Europe, I didn't even start on poverty, and I didn't even start on the unique factors in this pandemic response such as social isolation. I could go and work you up a death toll in the millions pretty easily, but you would ignore it anyway.

This economic crisis will kill millions of people in the subcontinent and Africa alone, and they don't have the financial capability to respond like the USA and Australia are.

Not ignoring it but I think the virus will kill more, particularly if social isolation measures are lessened and hospitals become inundated and overwhelmed.

 

[The King!]

I make choices based on facts and data. I want to see the modelling, including modelling of additional suicides, domestic violence, and deaths due to insecure housing and sustained unemployment in order to make a rational decision

At the moment I have nowhere enough information, and neither does anyone else commenting here. The difference is I acknowledge that the situation is far more complex than the headline virus death toll

this

having the government change rules every few days in terms of distance away, locations open, acceptable reasons to be out and basically taking away human rights while giving a nightly update on numbers, with little information on testing is not sustainable.

we need some idea of the forecast/strategy/modelling surely?

i am actually surprised how willing people are to have their right stripped away for the cause for an indefinite period, we seem to be in the dob on each other phase

 

[RW]

I make choices based on facts and data. I want to see the modelling, including modelling of additional suicides, domestic violence, and deaths due to insecure housing and sustained unemployment in order to make a rational decision

At the moment I have nowhere enough information, and neither does anyone else commenting here. The difference is I acknowledge that the situation is far more complex than the headline virus death toll

Perfect answer, wish we had more posters who thought like this <3

 

[swansfan51]

[Moderator comment]

Yes we have all taken this thread wildly off-topic but I think we should leave this thread up for all COVID discussion (football or non-football related) since we have few enough things to discuss on the forum at the moment. Happy to receive any counteraguments (via PM, not here)

 

[The King!]

also if the vic pollies are taking pay rises then jesus christ

seems to be the public sector are immune from difficulties so far

,

 

[The King!]

[Moderator comment]

Yes we have all taken this thread wildly off-topic but I think we should leave this thread up for all COVID discussion (football or non-football related) since we have few enough things to discuss on the forum at the moment. Happy to receive any counteraguments (via PM, not here)

its a good thread imo

sorry for dribbling shite its good to discuss it with everyone here imo, nice to see how others are going, what info they have/what affect on them

 

[caesar88]

this

having the government change rules every few days in terms of distance away, locations open, acceptable reasons to be out and basically taking away human rights while giving a nightly update on numbers, with little information on testing is not sustainable.

we need some idea of the forecast/strategy/modelling surely?

i am actually surprised how willing people are to have their right stripped away for the cause for an indefinite period, we seem to be in the dob on each other phase

We could not be coming at this from a more different angle because I couldn't give a s**t about my rights or anyone else's rights right now, I just want to avoid as many deaths as possible and would rather risk enduring whatever hardships that may come afterwards in order to achieve that.

I should also point out that I may be thinking about this a lot more emotionally than others may be or perhaps I should. I was raised by my granddad, he has always been the primary parental figure in my life despite being a senior my whole life, and so I am physically and mentally incapable of ever agreeing with any strategy that could further risk exposure to the elderly.

 

[The King!]

We could not be coming at this from a more different angle because I couldn't give a s**t about my rights or anyone else's rights right now, I just want to avoid as many deaths as possible and would rather risk enduring whatever hardships that may come afterwards in order to achieve that.

I should also point out that I may be thinking about this a lot more emotionally than others may be or perhaps I should. I was raised by my granddad, he has always been the primary parental figure in my life despite being a senior my whole life, and so I am physically and mentally incapable of ever agreeing with any strategy that could further risk exposure to the elderly.

all good discussion and like i said i dont have an old relative, we all have different stakes, I have young kids to feed, their education is impacted, im concerned about the economy and jobs, local employers i know, other diseases, people who need surgery, people killing themselves all for something with a fatality rate of what? and im not saying its just the flu.

i just want to know the modelling , the long term plan before we say ohh just sit inside indefinitely, in some vein hope of preventing death whats the point, just shut down the people at risk like say your grandfather

i dont think yours is a strategy though... and like sf51 said you are condemning many to death

but no interest is greater than self interest because I readily admit id rather the economy tick over, my job continue safely my kids have a future and a home ahead of saving a few extra old people if it comes to that and sorry thats cold as *

everyone has different worries and issues here i think its good to discuss all the different connotations. this isn't like debating ollie florents star level

 

[The King!]

we need more data and time for now of course

but right now the fatality rate is relatively low, in fact are cases of the virus and death rate dont warrant a continual lockdown

if we maintained for a month then why sit still? maybe thats too simplistic

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I dont think this country can do a longterm lockout, prior to this we had so much freedom its what the Australian people are used to.

Its only been 3 weeks and people are straining.

 

[Wolftone]

A lot of people don't yet seem to accept the reality that we will be living with these restrictions for a long time. Every senior medical officer in the country has said that the virus cannot be eradicated, so we are living with restrictions until either a vaccine has been created and widely distributed, or 60%+ of the country has had the virus.

For option B, 14,500,000 Australians need to get the virus, and we've currently had 5700. At the current rate of spread, we're waiting for a vaccine which is 12-18 months away in an optimistic scenario. I don't like this, in fact it is completely horrifying. But that is the path we have currently chosen.

Sorry but you have obviously not read any research on Coronaviruses. If you isolate them they die out rather quickly. They have only a small incubation period, unlike the flu that will live for months in aircon. Even this more viral form has disappeared when not being given victims within 72 hours. Hence the curve.

As per usual you look at figures, stats, and think them the most important part of the research. But in this case the figures lie greatly. In Italy and Spain the people totally ignored government advice and the outcome was the highest death toll in the world. The USA & Brazil have basically ignored the virus until the situation was so bad at least Trump said they had a problem. The president of Brazil still castigates people who say Brazil has a problem.

The fact is infections on a universal level are falling. A few countries are registering their first infections. But are they really their first infections? Probably not. But what is interesting is that there have been very few deaths in warmer countries, except in one case where the virus got into a nursing home

On U27 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Wolftone]

Most of the people who have lost work are in industries such as hospitality, retail, travel. Those industries require large numbers of people to access them to be viable. If groups can't congregate and travel, there is no point in allowing those workers to return as the businesses are not viable.

The article The King! posted nails it:


The choice is for us to decide how long the lockdown lasts. A slow rate of spread, like we have now, means a 12-18 month lockdown.

No that is not true. If you understand the concept of a Coronavirus then you understand that by denying this virus a new victim it dies rather quickly. That is the strategy that was identified in SARS. It worked very well. SARS was not as easily caught as COVID 19 but the same principal applies. In China it is working. Singapore, South Korea (who had problems early), Taiwan & Japan all applied the same principal.

On U27 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[swansfan51]

Sorry but you have obviously not read any research on Coronaviruses. If you isolate them they die out rather quickly. They have only a small incubation period, unlike the flu that will live for months in aircon. Even this more viral form has disappeared when not being given victims within 72 hours. Hence the curve.

As per usual you look at figures, stats, and think them the most important part of the research. But in this case the figures lie greatly. In Italy and Spain the people totally ignored government advice and the outcome was the highest death toll in the world. The USA & Brazil have basically ignored the virus until the situation was so bad at least Trump said they had a problem. The president of Brazil still castigates people who say Brazil has a problem.

The fact is infections on a universal level are falling. A few countries are registering their first infections. But are they really their first infections? Probably not. But what is interesting is that there have been very few deaths in warmer countries, except in one case where the virus got into a nursing home

On U27 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Of course you know better than Australia's chief medical officer who has said it can't be eradicated without a vaccine.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Sorry but you have obviously not read any research on Coronaviruses. If you isolate them they die out rather quickly. They have only a small incubation period, unlike the flu that will live for months in aircon. Even this more viral form has disappeared when not being given victims within 72 hours. Hence the curve.

As per usual you look at figures, stats, and think them the most important part of the research. But in this case the figures lie greatly. In Italy and Spain the people totally ignored government advice and the outcome was the highest death toll in the world. The USA & Brazil have basically ignored the virus until the situation was so bad at least Trump said they had a problem. The president of Brazil still castigates people who say Brazil has a problem.

The fact is infections on a universal level are falling. A few countries are registering their first infections. But are they really their first infections? Probably not. But what is interesting is that there have been very few deaths in warmer countries, except in one case where the virus got into a nursing home

On U27 using BigFooty.com mobile app

I don’t like people dumping shite on others for no good reason and clearly ignorant themselves. Ok Einstein quick quiz:

- what role does d3 have in the covid picture?
- what’s the R0 number for covid and for flu respectively? What’s the relevance?
- what is the true death rate of covid 19?
- does vascular Nitric Oxide help or hinder covid 19?
- what do modelling show as the% of people who are Asymptomatic?
- what’s the mean days of incubation.....the mean day after symptoms it turns ugly if it does .......the mean day you die if you will?
- what are diabetics at risk? Hypertensives?
- how does ARDS kill a covid 19 patient?
- what amino acid affects NO levels?
- what dosage are medical staff giving of Vitamin c in hospital for covid 19 and what % effect does that have on viral replication?
- what has andographis paniculata been shown to do to covid 19?
- in what way does sugar in diet and blood affect covid 19?
- what role can Berberine be used in treatment? Immune response? Replication? Inflammation?
- what role does zinc levels play?

My guess is you know zero of that absent looking it up and even then some answers won’t be readily available.

Infections are falling? Really? Is that why USA had over 30000 new cases overnight? following a pattern of exponential growth. Tomorrow will likely be 35000. Yeah that looks like it’s diminishing ...NOT.

If you are going to shoot your mouth off at someone at the least you should know what your talking about.

And btw those stats you ridicule have for the first time and here in Australia overnight just shown us the true mortality of covid 19. Because of our extensive testing and tracing

 

[The King!]

median age of australian deaths is 78, * thats a good innings

ill be lucky to get there

 

[Arwib]

Numbers are falling, and on a low base - could have footy on again in a month if we keep the borders closed to non-citizens and enforced isolation for people returning.

It'll probably still be a few months I think. The random community testing that's started now that travel cases have dried up should hopefully confirm that there's not a big quantity of undetected transmission out there.

But then, each stage of lifting restrictions has to be done slowly because of the 14 day incubation period, to make sure distancing and tracing is still keeping the spread under control. 14 days from a change in policy to when that change starts having impact on observed cases. Then another 14 days after that point, to make sure it didn't get out of hand in the first two weeks of the new policy.

So a month for each step change - and footy starting up, even without crowds, wouldn't be part of the first couple of reductions, surely. Especially if states keep their border controls in the early stages of lifting them.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

It'll probably still be a few months I think. The random community testing that's started now that travel cases have dried up should hopefully confirm that there's not a big quantity of undetected transmission out there.

But then, each stage of lifting restrictions has to be done slowly because of the 14 day incubation period, to make sure distancing and tracing is still keeping the spread under control. 14 days from a change in policy to when that change starts having impact on observed cases. Then another 14 days after that point, to make sure it didn't get out of hand in the first two weeks of the new policy.

So a month for each step change - and footy starting up, even without crowds, wouldn't be part of the first couple of reductions, surely. Especially if states keep their border controls in the early stages of lifting them.

Tbh I’ve closed my mind to any football this year. At the least they will wait until after winter. The R0 is so high that transmission will simply take off if we take foot of its throat. So surely any gradual lifting will coincide with a vaccine which I think will be about January at my guess. Why would you take risk otherwise? You’re right AFL is very low priority.