Mega Thread >>COVID-19 DISCUSSION THREAD<<

[The King!]

Yeah, I agree. I was listening to a podcast by Scott Adams (creator of Dilbert) and he made the point that he wouldn't want his federal government (or any federal government) to be put in the position where they have to decide how many of its citizens will die. The federal government's responsibility is to protect its citizens. His argument was essentially that decisions about when to open up should be in the hands of the states, who are in a better position to make those kinds of calls. The federal government's role would be more to make sure the states have the support they need and to provide guidance. Ideally, this would prevent someone like Trump from exercising too much power (no matter what he might say on Twitter), as Nassim Taleb explains here:



Our country is a lot different - while we are also a federation, we are a lot smaller, with significantly fewer states, so the federal government can do more.
However, the federal government still needs to be guided by the states as well as the people, as they don't have absolute authority to continue shutdowns for longer than is needed.

China is a completely different case, the government has a lot more control, so the people basically have to do whatever they say. (This actually worked to their advantage, as they had the capacity to enforce stricter lockdowns. But I don't know if I'd want our country to be run that way. Personally, I think we have a pretty good system.)

if we could trust china then more would follow their lead, but they keep changing their figures doesnt help

 

[Kirkswan]

Yeah, I agree. I was listening to a podcast by Scott Adams (creator of Dilbert) and he made the point that he wouldn't want his federal government (or any federal government) to be put in the position where they have to decide how many of its citizens will die. The federal government's responsibility is to protect its citizens. His argument was essentially that decisions about when to open up should be in the hands of the states, who are in a better position to make those kinds of calls. The federal government's role would be more to make sure the states have the support they need and to provide guidance. Ideally, this would prevent someone like Trump from exercising too much power (no matter what he might say on Twitter), as Nassim Taleb explains here:



Our country is a lot different - while we are also a federation, we are a lot smaller, with significantly fewer states, so the federal government can do more.
However, the federal government still needs to be guided by the states as well as the people, as they don't have absolute authority to continue shutdowns for longer than is needed.

China is a completely different case, the government has a lot more control, so the people basically have to do whatever they say. (This actually worked to their advantage, as they had the capacity to enforce stricter lockdowns. But I don't know if I'd want our country to be run that way. Personally, I think we have a pretty good system.)

One of the problems we face, is that once we allow our government to choose which people, and how many of them, are 'expendable', we have set a precedence for future issues.

I really don't think that they (the Fed Govt) will continue shutdowns as they are now beyond the next four weeks, tbh. I'm pretty sure they are buying (literally) time to figure out how to relax the current standards. Running out of staples is a real possibility if it continues unchanged. So I'm thinking manufacturing and processing plants will be high on the list.

Pretty sure that kids stuff will resume early too. Schools, sports etc without parents... given they I(the kids) are so low risk and the lack of reports indicating that they are carriers.

And I am absolutely expecting AFL to resume late May/early June.

 

[Kirkswan]

Anyone ever think that the world is fighting back? Not the people, but the earth itself? Or nature? That there's too many of us? So it's thinning us out a little?

We've seen the development of a number of corona and other viruses over the last 50 years... what if there's another one lurking 10 years down the track?

 

[Tedeski]

Article is about the uk

We still need to take notice of this because we haven't snuffed it out at all. In fact we went from 2 cases in Victoria, to 1 & then jumped to 17 yesterday.
There will be spike after spike & if not controlled as we are doing, it can get to larger spikes & loss of control.
But we are going ok for now.

 

[Jewelsbon]

these lockdowns are farting at thunder,

id rather risk the sick and elderly than mortgage the future of our youth

whats the point of a sick old granny getting a few more years in a home while our kids suffer

eventually the government will have to accept the virus is killing people anyway, we are prolonging the impact on hospitals

100% agree Kingy, it's our kids and grandkids that will be paying for this in the long run and the longer we are locked up and expecting the government to support us, the more we are damaging our kids future.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

these lockdowns are farting at thunder,

id rather risk the sick and elderly than mortgage the future of our youth

whats the point of a sick old granny getting a few more years in a home while our kids suffer

eventually the government will have to accept the virus is killing people anyway, we are prolonging the impact on hospitals

It will be inconvenient but not impact future generations. Don’t overstate it. Boosting GST to 15% from 10% and coy tax to 35% (from 27.5 or 30 depending on size of coy) and inc personal tax revenue by 10% overall will bolster annual revenue by about $85B.

On that basis it will take about 5 years to pay off the $300B.

Instead the government is likely to look at a 10 year plan which will restore us to current position and so moderate measures accordingly. Even those choices I made aren’t so difficult it would be onerous let alone worthy of sacrificing one life. So a ten year plan is mild inconvenience is all

 

[The King!]

It will be inconvenient but not impact future generations. Don’t overstate it. Boosting GST to 15% from 10% and coy tax to 35% (from 27.5 or 30 depending on size of coy) and inc personal tax revenue by 10% overall will bolster annual revenue by about $85B.

On that basis it will take about 5 years to pay off the $300B.

Instead the government is likely to look at a 10 year plan which will restore us to current position and so moderate measures accordingly. Even those choices I made aren’t so difficult it would be onerous let alone worthy of sacrificing one life. So a ten year plan is mild inconvenience is all

It’s not all about the money it’s impact on childhood and education. And those numbers are just simply not going to be correct

oh just raise gst problem solved , not that simple

if you are old and vulnerable stay home and then everyone else could actually provide more financial support to a smaller group

People want to live and go outside and enjoy life

I’m not sacrificing my life or my kids future for some old and sick **** that

 

[The King!]

We still need to take notice of this because we haven't snuffed it out at all. In fact we went from 2 cases in Victoria, to 1 & then jumped to 17 yesterday.
There will be spike after spike & if not controlled as we are doing, it can get to larger spikes & loss of control.
But we are going ok for now.

Soon what 1 percent of Australia might be sick with the virus

 

[Tedeski]

if you are old and vulnerable

What's your definition of old or vulnerable?
Some people are really showing how financially vulnerable they really are if anything.

 

[Tedeski]

Soon what 1 percent of Australia might be sick with the viru

Well maybe 10% of Victoria & 15% of Sydney, being the more populated states. That's how it seems to be spreading in other parts of the world after all.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

It’s not all about the money it’s impact on childhood and education. And those numbers are just simply not going to be correct

oh just raise gst problem solved , not that simple

if you are old and vulnerable stay home and then everyone else could actually provide more financial support to a smaller group

People want to live and go outside and enjoy life

I’m not sacrificing my life or my kids future for some old and sick fu** that

My figures are accurate as they are based on reported government revenue sources then extrapolated for the changes I proposed which as an accountant I’m quite capable of doing so the projection is entirely valid and accurate

Education will with proper management be mostly unaffected by this or at worse moderately so

There is way too much hysteria about the size and nature of problem rather than doing what I just did in drilling down to micro decisions from existing revenue sources. Do you honestly think the government will bankrupt the country without a plan? In similar vein to what I just did in 10 minutes? No

I said that most will have a safety net quoting job keeper seeker and individual industry supports. It was thrown at me that sadly Milky had already lost his job as evidence of doom but now has posted he has been collected in job keeper program safety net so kinda supporting my comments.

The fact I’m 62 has no relevance to the fact the choice of pathway should always protect ALL members of society especially the vulnerable as that is what a welfare conscious society does abd should do.

You have a right to your opinion of course but at least have the good sense to undertake macro analysis to support your view as I did in opposition rather than blanket .....sacrifice the elderly without cause to protect future generation who on my accurate figures are mildly inconvenienced no more

 

[Angry Red Bull]

My figures are accurate as they are based on reported government revenue sources then extrapolated for the changes I proposed which as an accountant I’m quite capable of doing so the projection is entirely valid and accurate

Education will with proper management be mostly unaffected by this or at worse moderately so

There is way too much hysteria about the size and nature of problem rather than doing what I just did in drilling down to micro decisions from existing revenue sources. Do you honestly think the government will bankrupt the country without a plan? In similar vein to what I just did in 10 minutes? No

I said that most will have a safety net quoting job keeper seeker and individual industry supports. It was thrown at me that sadly Milky had already lost his job as evidence of doom but now has posted he has been collected in job keeper program safety net so kinda supporting my comments.

The fact I’m 62 has no relevance to the fact the choice of pathway should always protect ALL members of society especially the vulnerable as that is what a welfare conscious society does abd should do.

You have a right to your opinion of course but at least have the good sense to undertake macro analysis to support your view as I did in opposition rather than blanket .....sacrifice the elderly without cause to protect future generation who on my accurate figures are mildly inconvenienced no more

I’m unaware of the number but being a tax accountant I’m aware that there is massive leakage of revenue each year through GIC interest remissions. I can’t recall the last time a GIC remission request was turned down....certainly not once in 10 years and some were massive $40k plus in a few cases. I’d be surprised if the figure wasn’t about $50B a year overall. Employ an extra 5000 staff and have them sit down face to face with tax agent and client to prove efficacy of their request and you’d recover probably 80% of whatever the figure truly is. All of a sudden that level of stringent review would change dynamic entirely. Successive governments give no attention to this instead giving ATO total control and ATO are driven by expediency.

 

[Ticky009]

these lockdowns are farting at thunder,

id rather risk the sick and elderly than mortgage the future of our youth

whats the point of a sick old granny getting a few more years in a home while our kids suffer

eventually the government will have to accept the virus is killing people anyway, we are prolonging the impact on hospitals

You do realise it's killing children right?

 

[The King!]

You do realise it's killing children right?

In Australia has it killed a child yet?

lot of things kill children but we don’t sit inside indefinitely

im not advocating change tomorrow but I would push back against suggestions we can sit still long term that’s all

 

[Kirkswan]

Well maybe 10% of Victoria & 15% of Sydney, being the more populated states. That's how it seems to be spreading in other parts of the world after all.

I think I read somewhere just recently that half Australia's population is in NSW & Qld... the other half is the rest of you...

 

[Ticky009]

In Australia has it killed a child yet?

lot of things kill children but we don’t sit inside indefinitely

im not advocating change tomorrow but I would push back against suggestions we can sit still long term that’s all

You're telling me that if you're kids school mates have Coronavirus that you'll happily let them play?

 

[The King!]

I’m unaware of the number but being a tax accountant I’m aware that there is massive leakage of revenue each year through GIC interest remissions. I can’t recall the last time a GIC remission request was turned down....certainly not once in 10 years and some were massive $40k plus in a few cases. I’d be surprised if the figure wasn’t about $50B a year overall. Employ an extra 5000 staff and have them sit down face to face with tax agent and client to prove efficacy of their request and you’d recover probably 80% of whatever the figure truly is. All of a sudden that level of stringent review would change dynamic entirely. Successive governments give no attention to this instead giving ATO total control and ATO are driven by expediency.

Yes but you can’t collect GST if the population are broke and not spending is more the point.

Unemployment of 15-20 percent will not help repay a debt

Simply rejecting requests for remission of GIC won’t do much if people don’t have money Or business close

I agree the ato have pretty much run with a rubber stamp on GIC in the past

 

[The King!]

You're telling me that if you're kids school mates have Coronavirus that you'll happily let them play?

When did I say that?

right now in Tasmania alone 0.03 percent have coronavirus

unless that increases dramatically then they aren’t playing with people who have it

 

[The King!]

My figures are accurate as they are based on reported government revenue sources then extrapolated for the changes I proposed which as an accountant I’m quite capable of doing so the projection is entirely valid and accurate

Education will with proper management be mostly unaffected by this or at worse moderately so

There is way too much hysteria about the size and nature of problem rather than doing what I just did in drilling down to micro decisions from existing revenue sources. Do you honestly think the government will bankrupt the country without a plan? In similar vein to what I just did in 10 minutes? No

I said that most will have a safety net quoting job keeper seeker and individual industry supports. It was thrown at me that sadly Milky had already lost his job as evidence of doom but now has posted he has been collected in job keeper program safety net so kinda supporting my comments.

The fact I’m 62 has no relevance to the fact the choice of pathway should always protect ALL members of society especially the vulnerable as that is what a welfare conscious society does abd should do.

You have a right to your opinion of course but at least have the good sense to undertake macro analysis to support your view as I did in opposition rather than blanket .....sacrifice the elderly without cause to protect future generation who on my accurate figures are mildly inconvenienced no more

Your figures are accurate as a model but o don’t think it would work

I agree we have an obligation to protect as many as possible or everyone really

but Long term I don’t think our current way does that

I’m not suggesting kill the elderly and sick sorry shouldn’t have worded it so rantingly bad, I’m frustrated today

I would suggest we can protect those most vulnerable longer term if more of us are generating income and less reliant on the government to love than your pool of support is spread further to those in need

im also not suggesting let’s all head out like life is normal tomorrow, the government has flagged 4 weeks for review, if we are tracking like now to me it’s sensible to move restrictions back a little then review in a month and so on with a view to push for normal asap


Seems to be a lot of people happy to sit home forever , I’m not sure how that gets funded, I worry many will end up dead and in poverty if that’s a long term plan , maybe that’s a silly worry but forgive me if I have some distrust of officials after they let the ships in etc

will I ever break a government instituted lockdown/restriction? No never

 

[Ticky009]

When did I say that?

right now in Tasmania alone 0.03 percent have coronavirus

unless that increases dramatically then they aren’t playing with people who have it

So it's okay for old people to die but not kids? Because that's what I'm hearing from you.

And that still doesn't answer the question, would you let your kids play with someone who has Coronavirus?

Edit: Ah. just saw your above post. thats clearer than your original one.

 

[The King!]

So it's okay for old people to die but not kids? Because that's what I'm hearing from you.

And that still doesn't answer the question, would you let your kids play with someone who has Coronavirus?

1- it’s not ok for old people to die, but each year many people die , I don’t believe in tanking the future for those younger kids long term if the death rate and median death age stays where it is , in the mid 70s, you can’t stop death, heck maybe I’ll die from coronavirus

2- where did I suggest my kids play with someone with coronavirus I get where you got the first question from but not this one,

IF I had to choose between old people dying or kids I’d choose old people wouldn’t you? That’s different to saying let them die which I am not and apologise if I made it seem that way

 

[Millky95]

The quickest way to getting the economy back that won't kill people is to find out:

1. Once you have the virus and are better, can you get it again?
2. If you never had obvious symptoms, can you find out if you had it?

If the answers are "No" then "Yes" then we have 3 groups of people: The ones who had it and are better, the ones that have it, and the ones yet to have it.

Get the people in the 1st group back into the work force as you can't get it again, treat those in group 2 so they can become group 1 and if you are in group 3 keep isolating until you become group 2 or we get a vaccine of some kind

EDIT: Just to expand on this a bit and my reason for this thinking.

I was in NJ and NYC around the 6th-11th of March. The mandatory 14 day stay at home if you came from overseas was brought in on the 14th, the day after I got home. So I did my 14 days not going anywhere. Before I flew home I had one day or so when my nose was stuffed and I felt like I had a head cold. I know this is the flu and stronger than that but as I'm in my mid 20s, maybe I only got it a little bit. Am I immune now? And by extension are my family that I saw every day?

 

[swansfan51]

One of the problems we face, is that once we allow our government to choose which people, and how many of them, are 'expendable', we have set a precedence for future issues.

We make trade offs for money and lives all the time. Check the QALY metrics (I referred to these earlier in the thread).

Here is a really simple example. We know that influenza causes ~18,000 hospitalisations and ~3000 deaths each year. We could reduce that number substantially if we went into a country-wide lockdown each year between April and September. We don't.

We have decided that 3000 deaths from a disease is acceptable. There will be a higher number that is also deemed acceptable. I don't know what that number is yet, but we will soon find out.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Yes but you can’t collect GST if the population are broke and not spending is more the point.

Unemployment of 15-20 percent will not help repay a debt

Simply rejecting requests for remission of GIC won’t do much if people don’t have money Or business close

I agree the ato have pretty much run with a rubber stamp on GIC in the past

Even the IMF with whom I disagree think it will be 6% down and 6% rebound so it’s a short term hiccup. With fiscal policy pumping an extraordinary $300B into the economy whatever slide will be temporary. The revenue will be poor year 1 but rebound quickly thereafter.

 

[RW]

Yes but you can’t collect GST if the population are broke and not spending is more the point.

Same thing with the corporate tax, since companies only pay tax if they make a profit. If their income falls due to not being able to trade, then less tax will be collected.

For some businesses it might be a couple of years before they start paying tax again, if they record a big enough loss this year.